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ZenKinG
ZenKinG
Joined: May 3, 2016
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September 14th, 2018 at 1:05:08 AM permalink
As you all know by now, I have yet to be wrong about one call that I've made on this forum and to the benefit of you all, I here announce another one. With that being said, this is not just another call though, this is the 2nd LOCK of the century and I dont throw that word around very often. To make things even sweeter; this lock is even better than the original one of last year. Enough beating around the bush, here it is. Thank me later.

The pick is to take the Bulls OVER 27.5. This line is undervalued by at least 10 games and I will go into further detail below as to why.

The Bulls last year won 27 games when vegas had them at 21.5 wins. Keep in mind, they did this with more than half of their starting lineup crumbled out due to injuries throughout the year and their main player Zach Lavine only playing the last third of the season after rehabbing to come back from an ACL tear the year before. Not to mention 2 of their best players got into a fight before the season started and caused one of them to be suspended 8 games and the other out for 20+ games. Their main starting lineup missed more than half of the year and bench players were in and out of the starting lineup and were benching their main players at the end of the season for the last 20 games or so. The bulls also ended up trading away one of their best players, Nikola Mirotic, away at the All star break halfway through the season.

This all happened while also having their most promising young player, Lauri Markannen, play in his rookie year, where he ended up being a standout and made a name for himself as one of the NBAs most promising young players with comparisons to a young Dirk Nowitizki. Now with a full season under his belt and adding about 15 lbs of muscle in the offseason, he is ready to really make a name for himself and big things are expected of him. With that being said, I do expect him to hit somewhat of a slump this year as most rookies hit a 'wall' in their second season as teams learn to scout against him, but he will in my opinion have another breakout year overall, with the very minimum helping the bulls get over 27.5 wins.

Additionally, the bulls once again drafted well signing a much needed piece which was the center position where they drafted an atheltic big man, Wendell Carter Jr, who is the prototypical big man for todays NBA and complements Markannen's game very well. He can run the floor, play inside, block shots and shoot the 3 ball. This guy will be a perennial all star within 3 years. He fits perfectly under Fred Hoiberg's system, fills a much needed position for the team at Center, and will create a very formidable pair in the front court for the bulls with Markannen for many years to come.

Not to mention the Bulls also filled another much needed position at Small Forward with the addition of free agent swingman Jabari Parker who now reunites with his hometown city of Chicago. Being back in his hometown from his high school days, this will rejuventate him. Jabari is still only 23 years old and has a lot to prove after having so much promise coming out of the draft years ago, but has been unfortunately riddled with knee injuries. Playing for his hometown now, I expect a huge season from him this year and to finally fill the expectations and potential that were placed on  him years ago coming out of the draft.

Now on to the bulls other main player, Zach Lavine who will play the Shooting Guard position. Zach, this year will be coming off an offseason where he was healthy rather than spending it the past year rehabbing. He will have been able to work on his game and be able to start the year healthy rather than play the last 3rd of the year. Zach ended up being plugged in late in the year and pretty much destroyed the chemistry on the team as he was just trying to pad his stats and playing iso ball since the season was pretty much already over. Zach also signed a huge contract this offseason and has basically been made the man to lead this team for the next 5 years and he won't want to let them down, at least not initially.

Lastly, Kris Dunn. Kris is the point guard of this team and the head of the snake. Kris is an athletic, young, and promising player who is also a pest on defense, but can also get into the paint at will and score the ball as well as being a competent shooter. He has so much potential and this year is the perfect opportunity to finally put it all together after barely playing in his rookie year in Minnesota and then having an injury plagued 2nd year with the bulls. When he plays well, the team wins, but unfortunately he went down with an injury last year halfway through the year. Before that, he was leading the bulls to wins after wins, but once he went down for the last half of the year, the bulls couldnt win a game and inevitably went into tank mode. Kris will be back healthy this year and the bulls starting lineup will be complete once again.

Now on to the bulls bench. The bulls bench is also nothing to sneeze at. They have some very good pieces that will add a punch. First off, Bobby Portis is a high caliber player who can score, rebound, and run the floor and can start on many teams. But with Markannen and Wendell Carter, Bobby will have to be the sixth man and if he accepts his role, realistically could be in the running for sixth man of the year in the league. This bulls team will be loaded in the front court and will have tremendous depth there. Next up is Antonio Blakeney who pretty much dominated the NBA G league in scoring last year with several call ups to the the bulls last year while also having a great summer league. He will be excited to finally be a permanent addition to the team and should add a nice spark off the bench. Anotonio should easily be able to average 5-10 points a game. Furthermore, veteran Robin Lopez at Center will be a solid backup for the youngster, Wendell Carter JR and we will know what we will get from him, which is a solid 5-10 points a game as well, hustle and rebounding. Also in the mix will be Denzel Valentine who started mpst of the year last year as an undersized small forward since we didnt have anyone else. He will now fit nicely coming off the bench since the SF role has now been filled by Jabari. He should do well against other teams bench players and should have a great year and easily a little under 10 points a game. Lastly, the bulls added in the draft Chandler Hutchison, who I believe will end up being the steal of the draft in the coming years who reminds me of a very young Scottie Pippen mixed in with some Paul Pierce. This guy might not get that many minutes this year to shine, but I expect him to get a solid 5 points a game this year off the bench.

With all of this being said, the Bulls last year were in a rebuilding year after trading away their star player Jimmy Butler and losing Wade and Rondo. They had very little expectations and had different players in and out of the starting lineup with no real identity as a team and STILL managed to get 27 wins. The over under this year is ONLY 27.5. This year will be much different and the bulls have a much better idea of who they are and who they want to be. You will see a much more consistent lineup in terms of which players will be playing each game. With Markannen emerging in his rookie year last year showing potential to be a perenial All Star and with a healthy Zach Lavine coming off a full healthy offseason instead of spending his offseason rehabbing as well as a healthy and Kris Dunn to start the year and having holes filled at SF and C with a motivated Jabari and inspiring rookie Wendell Carter, look out, these young bulls are motivated and will want to make a name for themselves this year and I easily expect 35-40 wins and getting one of the top 8 seeds to also get into the playoffs. The east is also much weaker now with Lebron out of the east and with all the powerhouse teams in the west and should be another added incentive to take the over on the bulls.

The bulls at 27.5 wins is way undervalued. Take the over. You'll be glad you did.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
billryan
billryan
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September 14th, 2018 at 1:54:47 AM permalink
It's nice to see you are still alive.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
RS
RS
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September 14th, 2018 at 2:42:18 AM permalink
Is there even a line at 27.5?
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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September 14th, 2018 at 3:23:13 AM permalink
I knew this was the play and by whom before I opened the thread up. That was the lock of the century. Where do I collect on the bet I didn’t make on it?
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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September 14th, 2018 at 6:46:30 AM permalink
ZK, if I give you $10,000 right now to make the bet will you give me $15,000? It sounds like with your LOCK, you would be guaranteed a $5,000 profit. You should consider this.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
SM777
September 14th, 2018 at 7:33:21 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

ZK, if I give you $10,000 right now to make the bet will you give me $15,000? It sounds like with your LOCK, you would be guaranteed a $5,000 profit. You should consider this.



So your post is asking ZK for $5000. What kind of response are you looking for?
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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September 14th, 2018 at 8:35:34 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Is there even a line at 27.5?

I show 27.5 opened at Westgate, now at 30
WH at 30.5
Last edited by: mustangsally on Sep 14, 2018
I Heart Vi Hart
SM777
SM777
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September 14th, 2018 at 9:02:11 AM permalink
#FadeCity
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
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Forager
September 14th, 2018 at 9:06:48 AM permalink
watch out for those Chinese basketballs.
get second you pig
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
Joined: May 3, 2016
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September 14th, 2018 at 9:14:27 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Is there even a line at 27.5?



At the time I wrote my analysis last week and saved it on my notepad on my phone, it was at 27.5. I got it from a twitter source with all the lines posted for each team. I was still in Portugal at the time and just waited to post it when I got back.

EDIT : The twitter source was from Aug 5th by Jeff Sherman. Didnt look at the date at the time, I just looked to see if it was the 2018-2019 totals since it couldnt have been released long before that post and the lines usually dont move much anyway in a short time frame so just used that number for the analysis. The sharps seemed to have moved it up with heavy action on the bulls over so I guess I was right once again as I knew that number was way off. Even at 30 wins, that number is still off. The bulls should get 35 wins minimum in my opinion. Only thing that will prevent them doing that is major injuries, but barring that, should be at least 35 wins this year.
Last edited by: ZenKinG on Sep 14, 2018
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.

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