Sports Betting Probability Question
is it possible to say whether or not your winning is the result of luck or skill? whether or not you actually have an edge?
it's only a little more than one standard deviation from 50/50
my best guess is that you cannot say whether or not it was luck or skill
but could you assign a probability to it?
could you say for example that there is a 65% chance that your results reflect skill and that you have an edge?
Quote: lilredroosterif you made 100 bets against the spread paying out the traditional 10/11 and you won 57 and lost 43 -
is it possible to say whether or not your winning is the result of luck or skill? whether or not you actually have an edge?
it's only a little more than one standard deviation from 50/50
my best guess is that you cannot say whether or not it was luck or skill
but could you assign a probability to it?
could you say for example that there is a 65% chance that your results reflect skill and that you have an edge?
If you check my blog and go back about 5 years I did an entire season of coin-flip bets and posted results. Not sure if it will answer what you are asking but it is the longest run anyone did of pure random on here AFIK.
of course there are 1000 monkeys just at CBS Sports,imo (some can even run computer simulations)Quote: Ace2If you took 1000 monkeys and had them pick 100 games each, ...
I say there must be at least 10,000 monkeys selling their sports picks, easy
(and that many giving away free sports picks)
that makes of the 800 monkeys
how many are legit sports experts
and how many were just lucky.
that is funny
Sally
Have a NFL promotion with an online bookmaker over here as follows:
- Bet a team on the money line market
- If they lead at the end of any quarter but lose the game you get money back (a push)
Does anyone have stats detailed enough to tell me how often this occurs? I have access to multiple accounts with this bookmaker and looking to bet both teams if it occurs often enough to be profitable.
Quote: Ace257 of 100 is 1.4 deviations to the right of expectation so about 8% of all randomly picked trials will be there. If you took 1000 monkeys and had them pick 100 games each, about 80 monkeys will pick more than 56 winners. The question then becomes - of the 80 monkeys how many are legit sports experts and how many were just lucky.
My question is how many of those 80 monkeys will become touts and start selling their picks?
I would suggest betting on big underdogs rather than both sides. Since it is a semi freeroll you want the biggest payout possible.
You're looking a lot by doing it as you proposed.
Quote: AussieApologies at jumping on this thread but was the most relevant I could find.
Have a NFL promotion with an online bookmaker over here as follows:
- Bet a team on the money line market
- If they lead at the end of any quarter but lose the game you get money back (a push)
Does anyone have stats detailed enough to tell me how often this occurs? I have access to multiple accounts with this bookmaker and looking to bet both teams if it occurs often enough to be profitable.
Unless I'm missing something, you'd need to know what the ML is for the games and if they were leading in a Q then lost the game....you can't just look at all games and say "the losing team was ahead at end of a quarter X% of the time". Regardless, this (almost certainly) happens often enough to be +EV.....unless you're getting really really bad lines.
Quote: AussieApologies at jumping on this thread but was the most relevant I could find.
Have a NFL promotion with an online bookmaker over here as follows:
- Bet a team on the money line market
- If they lead at the end of any quarter but lose the game you get money back (a push)
Does anyone have stats detailed enough to tell me how often this occurs? I have access to multiple accounts with this bookmaker and looking to bet both teams if it occurs often enough to be profitable.
Another question is how much do they punish the money line? Is it better elsewhere?
Your plan does not sound bad.
Quote: RigondeauxIt certainly happens often enough to be +ev.
I would suggest betting on big underdogs rather than both sides. Since it is a semi freeroll you want the biggest payout possible.
You're looking a lot by doing it as you proposed.
Not really interested in trying to pick winners, more wanting to turn it into a bet whether this event occurs. This is why I prefer to back both sides and also preferably games that are fairly even. Maybe a max of say +175 for the dog. Not really interested in the potential large loss a long run of losing big underdogs would bring.
An example of the typical market they offer would be the Ravens/Bengals game.
They have approx Ravens -106 Bengals -110. Can back both to make it effectively a $7.50 bet that this occurs to win either $91 or $92.50.
Quote: AZDuffmanAnother question is how much do they punish the money line? Is it better elsewhere?
Your plan does not sound bad.
We have many different options when it comes to online books. Maybe a dozen that can be easily accessed. The markets are generally very similar with only minor differences. On any given game yes I could get better with different books but on average this particular book is no better or worse.
EDIT: I bet many promotions in a similar fashion for a good profit, I just know very little about NFL other than the basic rules.
The catch is that they limit your bet to $10.
if they didn't limit you the bet you're describing is a crush deal.
go for it.
Quote: AussieBet is limited to $50 however I have access to multiple accounts.
just a suggestion if you don't mind
if you have multiple accounts you might want to make sure you make the bets from different IP addresses
if they see you are making bonus plays with different accounts from the same IP address they might hassle you - something online books love to do
they don't want to see a bet from a VPN either
Good Luck
Quote: AussieApologies at jumping on this thread but was the most relevant I could find.
Have a NFL promotion with an online bookmaker over here as follows:
- Bet a team on the money line market
- If they lead at the end of any quarter but lose the game you get money back (a push)
Does anyone have stats detailed enough to tell me how often this occurs? I have access to multiple accounts with this bookmaker and looking to bet both teams if it occurs often enough to be profitable.
That sounds like it should definitely be a +EV bet.
Quote: AussieApologies at jumping on this thread but was the most relevant I could find.
Have a NFL promotion with an online bookmaker over here as follows:
- Bet a team on the money line market
- If they lead at the end of any quarter but lose the game you get money back (a push)
Does anyone have stats detailed enough to tell me how often this occurs? I have access to multiple accounts with this bookmaker and looking to bet both teams if it occurs often enough to be profitable.
If you had bet the favorite on the moneyline in all 16 games week 1, you would’ve either won or been refunded your bet in 12 of them. The 4 losses would be the lions , saints, chargers, and cardinals who were all favored but did not lead at the end of any quarters.
Quote: mustangsallyof course there are 1000 monkeys just at CBS Sports,Sally
if you put 100 monkeys in a room with a grand piano there's a chance one might start playing Mozart's Piano Sonata #8 in A minor.
no way.Quote: lilredroosterif you put 100 monkeys in a room with a grand piano there's a chance one might start playing Mozart's Piano Sonata #8 in A minor.
I play some piano and that music is very difficult to play.
*****
one monkey might get lucky and play Beethoven's 'Fur Elise'
it is also in A minor...
but, no
no way, they have to play both white and black keys (E, Eb at the beginning)
wait
it is also in 3/4 time (waltz)
monkeys only rock and roll in 4/4 time
Sally
Quote: lilredroosterif you made 100 bets against the spread paying out the traditional 10/11 and you won 57 and lost 43 -
is it possible to say whether or not your winning is the result of luck or skill? whether or not you actually have an edge?
Yes, because for me, those 100 bets can be included with more data.
