lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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September 9th, 2018 at 2:12:16 AM permalink
if you made 100 bets against the spread paying out the traditional 10/11 and you won 57 and lost 43 -
is it possible to say whether or not your winning is the result of luck or skill? whether or not you actually have an edge?
it's only a little more than one standard deviation from 50/50

my best guess is that you cannot say whether or not it was luck or skill

but could you assign a probability to it?
could you say for example that there is a 65% chance that your results reflect skill and that you have an edge?
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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September 9th, 2018 at 8:10:25 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

if you made 100 bets against the spread paying out the traditional 10/11 and you won 57 and lost 43 -
is it possible to say whether or not your winning is the result of luck or skill? whether or not you actually have an edge?
it's only a little more than one standard deviation from 50/50

my best guess is that you cannot say whether or not it was luck or skill

but could you assign a probability to it?
could you say for example that there is a 65% chance that your results reflect skill and that you have an edge?



If you check my blog and go back about 5 years I did an entire season of coin-flip bets and posted results. Not sure if it will answer what you are asking but it is the longest run anyone did of pure random on here AFIK.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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September 9th, 2018 at 11:02:27 AM permalink
57 of 100 is 1.4 deviations to the right of expectation so about 8% of all randomly picked trials will be there. If you took 1000 monkeys and had them pick 100 games each, about 80 monkeys will pick more than 56 winners. The question then becomes - of the 80 monkeys how many are legit sports experts and how many were just lucky.
Itís all about making that GTA
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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September 9th, 2018 at 1:08:57 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

If you took 1000 monkeys and had them pick 100 games each, ...

of course there are 1000 monkeys just at CBS Sports,imo (some can even run computer simulations)

I say there must be at least 10,000 monkeys selling their sports picks, easy
(and that many giving away free sports picks)

that makes of the 800 monkeys
how many are legit sports experts
and how many were just lucky.

that is funny
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Aussie
Aussie
Joined: Dec 29, 2009
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September 10th, 2018 at 7:09:36 PM permalink
Apologies at jumping on this thread but was the most relevant I could find.

Have a NFL promotion with an online bookmaker over here as follows:

- Bet a team on the money line market
- If they lead at the end of any quarter but lose the game you get money back (a push)

Does anyone have stats detailed enough to tell me how often this occurs? I have access to multiple accounts with this bookmaker and looking to bet both teams if it occurs often enough to be profitable.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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September 10th, 2018 at 7:19:34 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

57 of 100 is 1.4 deviations to the right of expectation so about 8% of all randomly picked trials will be there. If you took 1000 monkeys and had them pick 100 games each, about 80 monkeys will pick more than 56 winners. The question then becomes - of the 80 monkeys how many are legit sports experts and how many were just lucky.



My question is how many of those 80 monkeys will become touts and start selling their picks?
Living longer does not always infer +EV
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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September 10th, 2018 at 7:42:40 PM permalink
It's racist to question the monkey's skill.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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September 10th, 2018 at 11:29:46 PM permalink
It certainly happens often enough to be +ev.

I would suggest betting on big underdogs rather than both sides. Since it is a semi freeroll you want the biggest payout possible.

You're looking a lot by doing it as you proposed.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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September 11th, 2018 at 12:03:20 AM permalink
Quote: Aussie

Apologies at jumping on this thread but was the most relevant I could find.

Have a NFL promotion with an online bookmaker over here as follows:

- Bet a team on the money line market
- If they lead at the end of any quarter but lose the game you get money back (a push)

Does anyone have stats detailed enough to tell me how often this occurs? I have access to multiple accounts with this bookmaker and looking to bet both teams if it occurs often enough to be profitable.


Unless I'm missing something, you'd need to know what the ML is for the games and if they were leading in a Q then lost the game....you can't just look at all games and say "the losing team was ahead at end of a quarter X% of the time". Regardless, this (almost certainly) happens often enough to be +EV.....unless you're getting really really bad lines.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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September 11th, 2018 at 3:20:25 AM permalink
Quote: Aussie

Apologies at jumping on this thread but was the most relevant I could find.

Have a NFL promotion with an online bookmaker over here as follows:

- Bet a team on the money line market
- If they lead at the end of any quarter but lose the game you get money back (a push)

Does anyone have stats detailed enough to tell me how often this occurs? I have access to multiple accounts with this bookmaker and looking to bet both teams if it occurs often enough to be profitable.



Another question is how much do they punish the money line? Is it better elsewhere?

Your plan does not sound bad.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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