Sports Betting Probability Question
is it possible to say whether or not your winning is the result of luck or skill? whether or not you actually have an edge?
it's only a little more than one standard deviation from 50/50
my best guess is that you cannot say whether or not it was luck or skill
but could you assign a probability to it?
could you say for example that there is a 65% chance that your results reflect skill and that you have an edge?
Quote: lilredroosterif you made 100 bets against the spread paying out the traditional 10/11 and you won 57 and lost 43 -
is it possible to say whether or not your winning is the result of luck or skill? whether or not you actually have an edge?
it's only a little more than one standard deviation from 50/50
my best guess is that you cannot say whether or not it was luck or skill
but could you assign a probability to it?
could you say for example that there is a 65% chance that your results reflect skill and that you have an edge?
If you check my blog and go back about 5 years I did an entire season of coin-flip bets and posted results. Not sure if it will answer what you are asking but it is the longest run anyone did of pure random on here AFIK.
of course there are 1000 monkeys just at CBS Sports,imo (some can even run computer simulations)Quote: Ace2If you took 1000 monkeys and had them pick 100 games each, ...
I say there must be at least 10,000 monkeys selling their sports picks, easy
(and that many giving away free sports picks)
that makes of the 800 monkeys
how many are legit sports experts
and how many were just lucky.
that is funny
Sally
Have a NFL promotion with an online bookmaker over here as follows:
- Bet a team on the money line market
- If they lead at the end of any quarter but lose the game you get money back (a push)
Does anyone have stats detailed enough to tell me how often this occurs? I have access to multiple accounts with this bookmaker and looking to bet both teams if it occurs often enough to be profitable.
Quote: Ace257 of 100 is 1.4 deviations to the right of expectation so about 8% of all randomly picked trials will be there. If you took 1000 monkeys and had them pick 100 games each, about 80 monkeys will pick more than 56 winners. The question then becomes - of the 80 monkeys how many are legit sports experts and how many were just lucky.
My question is how many of those 80 monkeys will become touts and start selling their picks?
I would suggest betting on big underdogs rather than both sides. Since it is a semi freeroll you want the biggest payout possible.
You're looking a lot by doing it as you proposed.
Quote: AussieApologies at jumping on this thread but was the most relevant I could find.
Have a NFL promotion with an online bookmaker over here as follows:
- Bet a team on the money line market
- If they lead at the end of any quarter but lose the game you get money back (a push)
Does anyone have stats detailed enough to tell me how often this occurs? I have access to multiple accounts with this bookmaker and looking to bet both teams if it occurs often enough to be profitable.
Unless I'm missing something, you'd need to know what the ML is for the games and if they were leading in a Q then lost the game....you can't just look at all games and say "the losing team was ahead at end of a quarter X% of the time". Regardless, this (almost certainly) happens often enough to be +EV.....unless you're getting really really bad lines.
Quote: AussieApologies at jumping on this thread but was the most relevant I could find.
Have a NFL promotion with an online bookmaker over here as follows:
- Bet a team on the money line market
- If they lead at the end of any quarter but lose the game you get money back (a push)
Does anyone have stats detailed enough to tell me how often this occurs? I have access to multiple accounts with this bookmaker and looking to bet both teams if it occurs often enough to be profitable.
Another question is how much do they punish the money line? Is it better elsewhere?
Your plan does not sound bad.
