NFL Teasers
Quote: WizardI just finished a rough draft of a new page on NFL teasers. Before I announce the page, I'd appreciate any comments, questions, or corrections. I'm feeling pretty sick today, so there may be a lot of typos.
I never understood teasers much before this, the way you wrote it is pretty easy to understand. I had to read it twice, but I just got off all day of work and half watching FNC while I read it. I need to see the actual odds at Bodog, but they look interesting since I have missed several games by 1-3 points this year.
Hope you are feeling better.
"However, because I did a 6-point teaser, all four points spreads..." I suggest rewording it to, "However, because I did a 6-point teaser, all the point spreads..."
Also, if you could define "Sides", as used in the table, that would make it clearer.
Quote: WizardI just finished a rough draft of a new page on NFL teasers. Before I announce the page, I'd appreciate any comments, questions, or corrections. I'm feeling pretty sick today, so there may be a lot of typos.
I like the looks of it, and appreciate the effort you've done, but I'm looking at this long row of -EV numbers, and it just looks like "crappy bet, crappy bet, crappy bet", over and over. What practical application does this information have, since the only proper strategy regarding teasers seems to be, "ignore them"?
I also wonder if the current 10-11 payout on 2-team 6 point teasers was based on the realization that the old even money payoff was positive EV for the player.
There's some useful information in there... I hate taking teasers (if I'm going to roll the big dice, I'll take a 10-team parlay and use that $2 to dream), but the point crossing teasers are better value than I had thought.
Quote: odiousgambitThe Cal Neva 5-Team advice seems to be what would ordinarily be of the "I'll keep this to myself" type. Am I missing something?
I thought of that. However, I like to give my readers a juicy bone once in a while.
I dont think this is stated correctly in the rough draft Wizard. You meant to say if the first game pushes. If the first game loses
the teaser is a loser because u have to win or push on every game.
Also, let it be noted that at many online sportsbooks, any push within a teaser causes it to be a loser.
two team Parlay at the true point spreads for both teams. I find that almost every time i win a 2 team teaser, i wouldve won it as a parlay also because
the teaser points were not needed to win either game. and of course the parlay wouldve paid much higher odds.
Quote: michael99000'So don't throw away a teaser bet if the first game loses, because it will still push if every other pick results in a push. "
I dont think this is stated correctly in the rough draft Wizard. You meant to say if the first game pushes. If the first game loses
the teaser is a loser because u have to win or push on every game.
I think it is stated correctly. If you do a 2-team teaser, and get 1 loss and 1 push, then the bet will push. That is because the one push reduces it to a one-team teaser, and there is no such thing, so the bet is refunded.
Quote: michael99000Id be curious to know how many winning two team 6 point teasers wouldve also been a winner had they been submitted instead as a
two team Parlay at the true point spreads for both teams. I find that almost every time i win a 2 team teaser, i wouldve won it as a parlay also because
the teaser points were not needed to win either game. and of course the parlay wouldve paid much higher odds.
That has happened to me lots of times. To answer your question, let's use the probability of a random side winning on a 6-point teaser, which my table says is 68.11%. So the probability of a 2-team teaser winning is 0.6811^2=0.463897. The probability of winning a 2-team parlay is 0.5^2=0.25. So, given that you did win the teaser, the probability you would have won it as a parlay is 0.25/0.463897 = 0.5389124.
Quote: dogmanWizard,on the 3 team teasers your missing the expected return for a 9-5 payoff. What would the return be, by the way.
I'm not aware of anybody that pays 9-5 any longer, are you? The odds would depend on whether the teaser was on a side, total, or a Wong teaser.
I was looking for the expected return on a 9-5 payout with a wong teaser
also like that at beteagle where I used to play, if you lose any game in a teaser it loses.
Teaser Rules
•Any one loss constitutes a loss.
•If a selection in the teaser is a push, the teaser will drop to the next lower level if a lower level is offered for that particular teaser. A push in a two team teaser without a loss will make the entire bet a push.
•Each distinct teaser is limited to $100,000.00 maximum payout.
Also, I went downtown today and found that I was in error in saying Cal Neva paid 5 to 1 on a 5-team 6.5-point teaser. That is what they pay for 6 teams. So my sports book guide was in error. From my notes, I forgot to write down the 7-2 for a 5-team teaser, and incorrectly slid everything else higher over.
Quote: dogmanThere a great book but they shade their teasers to hurt the "wongs". For example many books have Denver at -8 and -8 1/2this Sunday but they have them at -9(+105) so if you tease them 6 points you won't get past the three and lay -2 1/2, you would still be laying 3.
You're right. As I write this everybody has Denver at -8 or -8.5, but the Greek is -9 +105, as you said. I suspect you're right about the reason. Have you seen them do that before?
Quote: CoolMikeSo, out of curiosity, what did you have as the real advantage for the Cal Neva teaser? I would think moving from a 5-1 payout to a 7-2 payout pushes the teaser bet back to having a house edge.
I saw it, but the house edge was very high. I already deleted all that work.
Example:
This saturday the following lines are offered on two college games..
Miami -6.5 over North Carolina, and Miami moneyline is -255
Iowa -6.5 over Wisconsin, and Wisconin moneyline is -260
I can do a two team six point teaser which gives me Miami -.5 and Iowa -.5, and risk 100 to win 83.
BUT I can also do a two team parlay of the money lines on both favorites which gives me
Miami ML -255/ Iowa ML -260 and if I risk 100 on that it pays 90.
Basically they are the same bet (College football cant end in a tie game). but the parlay pays out better.
Yes, the GREEK has done this pretty much all year. Instead of the underdog at +1 1/2,2,2 1/2 they will put up a +1+105 or +110 so you can't pick up the whole 7. 5 dimes sportsbook does it also.
Micheal, I have also bet the teaser instead of a ML parlay on the favorites from -7 1/2 to -8 1/2. You will get a much better payback BUT you can lose if it lands on 1 or 2 for the favorite but that doesn't happen often. Usually just do this in the NFL as the ML's are higher than for the same spread in college.
Quote: dogmanWizard,
Yes, the GREEK has done this pretty much all year. Instead of the underdog at +1 1/2,2,2 1/2 they will put up a +1+105 or +110 so you can't pick up the whole 7. 5 dimes sportsbook does it also.
Micheal, I have also bet the teaser instead of a ML parlay on the favorites from -7 1/2 to -8 1/2. You will get a much better payback BUT you can lose if it lands on 1 or 2 for the favorite but that doesn't happen often. Usually just do this in the NFL as the ML's are higher than for the same spread in college.
Thanks. That pretty slick of the Greek and 5 Dimes.
By the way, I don't recommend betting favorites on the money line, except on the Super Bowl. You would make out much better by giving up the points and going against the spread. As you mentioned, if it is a 7.5 to 8.5 point favorite, then a teaser is the way to go.
Quote: WizardThanks. That pretty slick of the Greek and 5 Dimes.
By the way, I don't recommend betting favorites on the money line, except on the Super Bowl. You would make out much better by giving up the points and going against the spread. As you mentioned, if it is a 7.5 to 8.5 point favorite, then a teaser is the way to go.
I agree Wizard. People who bet heavy favroites on the moneyline are considered a bookmakers dream. Second only to those who bet tons of parlays
and feel the need to hedge each and every time they are one game away from winning it.
That result would actually be a loss for the teaser. Any game losing in a teaser causes the entire teaser to be a loss, regardless of how any of the
other games in the teaser do..win, loss or push.
Think about it like this..if I do a 2 team teaser and one game loses and one game wins, thats obviously a loss for the teaser as whole. So what
your saying is you'd be better off having a loss and a push in a 2 team teaser (resulting in a push overall according to u) instead of a loss and a win in a 2 team teaser...which makes no sense. A loss and a win is technically better than a loss and a push, although both are graded as a loss because any loss in a teaser makes it a loss.
Quote: michael99000Wizard, I still believe you are wrong in saying that a 2 team teaser that results in one game losing and one game pushing is graded as a push.
Disagree all you wish, but those are the rules here in Vegas. You can ask at any sportsbook.
Quote: WizardDisagree all you wish, but those are the rules here in Vegas. You can ask at any sportsbook.
copied and pasted directly from lasvegassportsbetting.com..
What is a Teaser?
A Teaser is a selection of two or more teams in one wager in which the point spread is adjusted in your favor. The number of teams selected and the number of points selected determine the payout odds. A 'Tie' or 'No Action' and a 'Win' on a two team teaser shall constitute a 'No Action' wager. A 'Tie' or 'No Action' and a 'Loss' on a two team teaser shall constitute a 'Losing' wager. Ties on a three or more team teaser shall revert to the next lowest betting bracket (Example: A tie on a three team becomes a two team teaser).
Quote: michael99000copied and pasted directly from lasvegassportsbetting.com..
What is a Teaser?
A Teaser is a selection of two or more teams in one wager in which the point spread is adjusted in your favor. The number of teams selected and the number of points selected determine the payout odds. A 'Tie' or 'No Action' and a 'Win' on a two team teaser shall constitute a 'No Action' wager. A 'Tie' or 'No Action' and a 'Loss' on a two team teaser shall constitute a 'Losing' wager. Ties on a three or more team teaser shall revert to the next lowest betting bracket (Example: A tie on a three team becomes a two team teaser).
That site is wrong, and doesn't look like it has much to do with Las Vegas. I don't claim it is wrong about the way teasers are scored online.
From Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong:
Quote: WongIf you teaser was for more than two teams, the pushing team is ignored and the teaser is treated as if it were made without the team's being a part of it....Two-team teasers in which one team is teased into a push become no action; your money is returned to you. So if you have teased two teams and your first team loses, your still have a chance to get something back for your ticket.
