2018 WoV Picks game (discussion thread)

Damn, I never even looked at the Jags line that Mission posted, because of the Mariota uncertainty. I'm guessing that virtually everyone took the Jags -6.5 except me.

Bills ahead of Vikings 16-0 in the 1st Q? WTF?

Mission it looks like you posted previous standings not week 3 picks in the official thread?

Quote: gordonm888

Bills ahead of Vikings 16-0 in the 1st Q? WTF?

Of course that happened since I picked Vikings in my second chance survivor pool that started this week (after picking Saints in the original survivor pool week 1).

Those whom the football gods would destroy they first make proud.

Quote: Mission146

Maybe that's where they got it, posting the picks now!

We have different definitions of “now.”
:-P

Quote: gordonm888

Bills ahead of Vikings 16-0 in the 1st Q? WTF?

Looks like I'm going down with the ship. Figured most would take Bills. They play 4 quarters, maybe it's not over, but my odds stink.

Quote: gordonm888

I'm guessing that virtually everyone took the Jags -6.5 except me.

And it's Titans 3, Jags 0 a few minutes into the 2nd qtr. Hmmmmmmmm......

Quote: gordonm888

Damn, I never even looked at the Jags line that Mission posted, because of the Mariota uncertainty. I'm guessing that virtually everyone took the Jags -6.5 except me.

Not me. I missed it too. Maybe we'll get lucky and the Texans will cover the 6.5 spread and we'll be fortunate to have missed it.

Greetings!

The Week 3 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:
Patriots -6.5
Patriots OVER 53.5
Vikings -16.5
Vikings OVER 40.5
Raiders +3

Fleastiff:
Steelers UNDER 53.5
Patriots UNDER 53.5
Chiefs UNDER 55.5
Redskins +3
Raiders UNDER 44.5

terapined:
Ravens -5.5
Packers -3
Bucs +1.5
Bills +16.5
Chargers +7

PlayYourCardsRight:
Jaguars -6.5
Dolphins -3
Cowboys +1.5
Patriots -6.5
Buccaneers +1.5-CONFIDENCE

VegasRider:
Patriots - 6.5- Confidence
Chiefs OVER 55.5
Buccaneers +1.5
Falcons -3
Rams -7

TroopScott:
Skips Week Three

BeachBumBabs:
Bears -5.5 - confidence
Jaguars -6.5
Bucs +1.5
Packers -3
Jaguars OVER 39.5

Joeman:
Jaguars -6.5
Falcons -3
Packers -3
Bears -5.5
Patriots -6.5

IndyJeffrey:
Eagles -6.5
Jaguars -6.5
Falcons -3-Confidence
Bills +16.5
Rams -7

GenWyzgy:
Colts + 6.5
Bengals OVER 43.5
Chargers OVER 48
Patriots UNDER 53.5
Steelers OVER 53.5

onenickelmiracle:
Broncos +5.5
Raiders +3
Vikings -16.5 confidence
Saints +3
Bengals OVER 43.5

GWAE:
Colts (+6.5)
Titans (+6.)
Vikings OVER 40.5. Confidence
Chiefs (-6.5)
Chargers (+7)

MidwestAP:
Bengals +3
Broncos +5.5
Chiefs -6.5
Cowboys +1.5
Steelers -1.5

JW17:
Broncos +5.5 confidence
Patriots -6.5
Buccaneers +1.5
Bears -5.5
Dolphins-3

SOOPOO:
49ers+ 6.5 confidence
Broncos+ 5.5
Titans +6.5
Vikings-16.5
Patriots over 53.5

JohnZimbo:
Rams -7 confidence
Steelers under 53.5
Seahawks -1.5
Ravens -5.5
Dolphins -3

scolist:
Broncos +5.5
Chargers OVER 48
Chiefs -6.5
Dolphins -3
Buccaneers +1.5

JohnnyQ:
Jaguars (-6.5) Confidence
Bills (+16.5)
49ers Under 55.5
Seahawks (-1.5)
Buccaneers (+1.5)

Bruce1:
Colts UNDER 47.5
Bengals OVER 43.5
Jaguars (-6.5) CONFIDENCE
49ers UNDER 55.5
Cardinals (+5.5)

Michael99000:
Redskins +3
Cowboys OVER 41.5
Colts +6.5
Chargers +7
Chiefs -6.5

Ayecarumba:
Panthers -3
Broncos +5.5
Patriots -6.5 -Confidence
Bears OVER 38
Buccaneers +1.5

Wizard:
Bengals (+3)
Jaguars (-6.5) -- confidence
Saints (+3)
Redskins (+3)
Chargers (+7)

GordonM888:
Saints +3
Broncos +5.5
49ers +6.5
Chargers +7
Patriots -6.5

unJon:
Saints +3
Broncos OVER 44.5
Giants OVER 42
Jaguars -6.5-confidence
Patriots -6.5

Rainman:
Cowboys +1.5 Confidence
Bengals +3
Rams -7
Broncos +5.5
Saints +3

Sparty10k:
Bengals +3 confidence
Falcons -3
Seahawks -1.5
Patriots -6.5
Buccaneers +1.5

miplet:
Jaguars -6.5-confidence
Saints +3
Redskins +3
Bears -5.5
Buccaneers +1.5

EdCollins:
Broncos +5.5
Bills +16.5
Chargers +7
Chiefs -6.5 (Confidence)
Patriots -6.5

kuma:
Bengals +3
Jaguars -6.5 -- Confidence
Saints +3
Raiders +3
Redskins +3

Prozema:
Eagles -6.5
Eagles UNDER 47.5
Saints +3 Confidence
Ravens OVER 44.5
Redskins +3

DJATC:
Eagles UNDER 47.5
Saints +3
Ravens UNDER 44.5 - Confidence
Bills OVER 40.5
Seahawks UNDER 41.5

MaxPen:
Bills +16.5
49ers +6.5
Cardinals +5.5
Seahawks OVER 41.5 - Confidence
Steelers -1.5

FourFiveFace:
Colts +6.5
Broncos +5.5
Giants +6
Chiefs -6.5-Confidence
Chargers +7

odiousgambit:
Raiders +3
Cardinals +5.5
Eagles -6.5
Jaguars -6.5 CONFIDENCE
Chiefs -6.5

RisingDough:
Jaguars-6.5
Saints+3 CONFIDENCE
Ravens OVER 44.5
Giants OVER 42
Redskins+3

VCUSkyhawk:
Jaguars -6.5-Confidence
Eagles -6.5
Patriots -6.5
Chiefs -6.5
Bears -5.5

Romes:
Eagles -6.5
Panthers -3
Jaguars -6.5
Falcons -3
Ravens -5.5 CONFIDENCE

Rigondeaux:
Dolphins -3
Colts +6.5
Bills +16.5
Bengals +3
Bears -5.5

Quote: gordonm888

Bills ahead of Vikings 16-0 in the 1st Q? WTF?

Ha ha now 24-0.

Quote: unJon

We have different definitions of “now.”
:-P

I'm sorry about that! I was briefly indisposed and then there were a few default picks (one of which is so specific as to be difficult to do quickly).

Quote: Mission146

I'm sorry about that! I was briefly indisposed and then there were a few default picks (one of which is so specific as to be difficult to do quickly).

No worries. Appreciate the effort you put into this.

My quick count is 15 bets on Jags with 8 of them confidence picks. 1 bet on Titans (!).

23 units picked on the Jags -6.5 and only 2 picked on the Titans. Many of our sharpest players made Jags their confidence pick.
And weirdly, Mariota with his bum hand is in the game for a concussed Blaine Gabbert. Go Titans!

A decent amount of CONFIDENCE pix on the JAGS:

JohnnyQ:
Bruce1:
Wizard:
unJon:
miplet:
kuma:
odiousgambit:
VCUSkyhawk:

Quote: Mission146

I'm sorry about that! I was briefly indisposed and then there were a few default picks (one of which is so specific as to be difficult to do quickly).

That is nice that you allow default picks, but they shouldn't be so complicated as to be a time-consuming task for you ! You are already "above and beyond the call of duty" by doing most of the administration of this.

THANKS !

Quote: JohnnyQ

That is nice that you allow default picks, but they shouldn't be so complicated as to be a time-consuming task for you ! You are already "above and beyond the call of duty" by doing most of the administration of this.

THANKS !

Thanks for saying so, but it actually makes them more fun! I really wish someone would have done the random.org method of default picks. This particular set just came with some conditionals that normally wouldn't be too time-consuming, but this was kind of a weird week relative to them.

Get rekt Vikings. But put up some points for my over

Goddamnit I made a wrong pick. If you can guess it you get a cookie

Quote: djatc

Get rekt Vikings. But put up some points for my over

Goddamnit I made a wrong pick. If you can guess it you get a cookie

I had to do a double then triple take on Ravens under. I thought EVERYONE was gonna have the over.

Quote: EdCollins

Not me. I missed it too. Maybe we'll get lucky and the Texans will cover the 6.5 spread and we'll be fortunate to have missed it.

You called it

Several teams forgot to show up this week. My nephew was at the Vikings game. I'm blaming him. Lol. What a waxing.

Aaarrgghh, good thing there are 14 more weeks to improve my standings.

my super scientific rubix cube picking method has taken my 3-1 so far this week including picking the jags to lose. Too bad my 1 loss was my confidence pick. FU Min and the over.

the real unfortunate part is the pick was supposed to be Browns as confidence but I didn't know they played on Thursday so I had to make a change.

Quote: RS

Actually, there is no rule prohibiting it. Rule 9 states, in full:


In other words:

1. It’s permitted.
2. Doing so shall constitute a loss on both sides.
3. Player cannot win any consolation prize.
4. Nothing in the rule says you’ll go 0-5 for that week if you make offsetting picks.

Thanks for clearing this up for me!

The first official version of this rule was as follows:

Quote:

1.) Doey-Don't Record Protection:

-There was a question raised last year about whether or not Doey-Don't Record Protection was an illegal play. In essence, you could bet one team AtS and bet their opponent AtS thereby ensuring a record on those two games no worse than .500, and in the best case, two no-decisions. The question had not been addressed prior to the season, so by Executive Decision, I declared this an illegal way to play the game. This year, I am officially making Doey-Don't Record Protection illegal, and the penalty for attempting such shall be both games being construed as losses.

There were no consolation prizes at the time that this rule was first created, but the reason for it was that a player could theoretically be in the lead for first place such that a .500 record for two games picked (or two No-Decisions) in the case of a non-half number could be desirable for that player.

For instance, let's say a player were 47-31 for a winning percentage of .60256. Imagine another player could, at best, get to .589: Offsetting picks plus one other pick could result in the following records, at worst: (This assumes the fifth Pick is a loss)

47-32---0.59493670886

48-33---0.59259259259

49-34---0.59036144578

On the other hand, if picking correctly, even a record of 1-4 for the week could make it so that the player could lose to the second place player who gets up to .589 as 48/83 (48-35) = 0.57831325301

I think when it was first brought up we all kind of agreed that we didn't think anyone would ever actually use such tactics, but decided to go ahead and make it a rule just to be safe. That's why it was a loss on both Picks because that could never benefit someone in first place (or any other).

It was added to this rule (when consolation prizes were created) that the player to do such offsetting picks would no longer qualify for those simply because (such as the, "You Suck," prize) it could be desirable to take a guaranteed 0-2 record.

IOW, the Rules were basically written mostly for people who would consider doing intentional gimmicking to influence the results and people smart enough to dream up the idea to do that. I wrote them without ever considering someone making such picks in a way that would not be to his/her advantage, mainly because I figured I could give everyone playing this game more credit than that.

Y'all took the jags huh

Quote: djatc

Y'all took the jags huh

Way to fade that Ravens over.

I suck this time. Will probably be 1-5. I'm going to have to learn more about over under.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

I suck this time. Will probably be 1-5. I'm going to have to learn more about over under.

I think historical data is not much help with over/under, because the total number of plays in a game depends upon how often the two teams run vs pass the ball, and that keeps changing as the rules keep changing.

I am so hot right now I may have to drop and and go the tout route :)

Quote: unJon

Way to fade that Ravens over.

Better to be lucky then good, as the ancient hawaiians say

Quote: Mission146

Romes:
Vikings -16.5
Rams -7
Eagles -6.5
Jaguars -6.5
Chiefs -6.5

I believe this isn’t correct. I was unable to review things this week (and will be out of the country the next two weeks but will TRY to get on WiFi for pics), and my picks according to my defaults should be:

Romes:
Eagles -6.5
Panthers -3
Jaguars -6.5
Falcons -3
Ravens -5.5 CONFIDENCE

My week 1 PM had my default explanation Mission. Let me know if you need any more info.

***I think I see what you did mission. I was being more “literal” than I think was conveyed. My default this year is the same as last year where I might have explained it better. If you need more of an explanation plz pm me. Thanks!

Quote: Romes

I believe this isn’t correct. I was unable to review things this week (and will be out of the country the next two weeks but will TRY to get on WiFi for pics), and my picks according to my defaults should be:

Romes:
Eagles -6.5
Panthers -3
Jaguars -6.5
Falcons -3
Ravens -5.5 CONFIDENCE

My week 1 PM had my default explanation Mission. Let me know if you need any more info.

***I think I see what you did mission. I was being more “literal” than I think was conveyed. My default this year is the same as last year where I might have explained it better. If you need more of an explanation plz pm me. Thanks!

You're right, I took, "Top 5 Favorites," to mean, "Biggest favorites." I'll correct the Picks posts accordingly.

Hawks won
Pats Lost
Lakers beat the Supersonics

Pretty sure I went 0-6. Hello, basement.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Pretty sure I went 0-6. Hello, basement.

I’m in a game where you have to pick every game against the spread (no over/unders). I went 0-15 this week so far. I don’t even know how someone can be that wrong.

Anyone want to do default wov picks for me? :)

Quote: JohnnyQ

Ha ha now 24-0.

And I used to like you, too....lol.

Wound, meet salt.

This was a bizarre week in the NFL indeed. The Dolphins are leading their division at 3-0, Bills crushed Vikings, Titans beat Jags......

I have written my money off in this pool. I am just hoping I suck enough for the consolation prize at this point.

This contest is JohnZimbo and the 37 Dwarves. As a group, we contestants are so much worse than a random 0.500 that we look like loaded dice and weighted coins.

Quote: Romes

I believe this isn’t correct. I was unable to review things this week (and will be out of the country the next two weeks but will TRY to get on WiFi for pics), and my picks according to my defaults should be:

Romes:
Eagles -6.5
Panthers -3
Jaguars -6.5
Falcons -3
Ravens -5.5 CONFIDENCE

My week 1 PM had my default explanation Mission. Let me know if you need any more info.

***I think I see what you did mission. I was being more “literal” than I think was conveyed. My default this year is the same as last year where I might have explained it better. If you need more of an explanation plz pm me. Thanks!

This change brought you from 2/5 to 3/6. It was many, many hours after the first kick off. Objection. People shouldn't even have default picks in the first place, IMO, because people have 3 days to get their picks in, but here it seems your instructions are vague, so there really isn't even a default strategy. I think the 2/5 should stand.

Further, as discipline, Romes should be limited to only posting in Nathan's Corner for 1 week.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

This change brought you from 2/5 to 3/6. It was many, many hours after the first kick off. Objection. People shouldn't even have default picks in the first place, IMO, because people have 3 days to get their picks in, but here it seems your instructions are vague, so there really isn't even a default strategy. I think the 2/5 should stand.

Further, as discipline, Romes should be limited to only posting in Nathan's Corner for 1 week.

i wouldn't mind that last part. i wish i could do the devil smile. {:) this will have to do. a normal smile with eyebrows.

Quote: Mission146

Greetings!

The Week 3 Picks are as follows:

TroopScott:
Buccaneers O/U 53.5

Mission, I'm just now noticing this. The pick above is invalid. Is it for the Bucs against the spread? If so, then the O/U shouldn't be listed. If it's a bet on the O/U then which one?

Quote: EdCollins

Mission, I'm just now noticing this. The pick above is invalid. Is it for the Bucs against the spread? If so, then the O/U shouldn't be listed. If it's a bet on the O/U then which one?

My interpretation would be the over. Tix in sports books often list it in this fashion. Ie just naming one team to identify the game and the over or under.

No real reason to mention o/u if picking a side.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

Further, as discipline, Romes should be limited to only posting in Nathan's Corner for 1 week.

a punishment that severe should be reserved for more serious offenses

Quote: EdCollins

Mission, I'm just now noticing this. The pick above is invalid. Is it for the Bucs against the spread? If so, then the O/U shouldn't be listed. If it's a bet on the O/U then which one?

I didn’t notice it, either. I’ll PM TroopScott, but I checked the PM and that’s how it appears. He’s probably going to have to burn his bye week.

Quote: Mission146

He’s probably going to have to burn his bye week.

May I have that option as well for my Week 3? ;)

Two Areas of Controversy:

Okay, we have two areas of controversy this week that I will address:

1.) Romes' Picks

-The fact that what I initially posted for Romes' Default Picks was wrong is 92% my fault and 8% Romes' fault. It's on Romes only to the extent that his instructions were unclear, but the way I read them, Romes didn't account for ties in the lines (the way I was reading his instructions) which I found out. However, as Romes points out, his Default Picks mechanism is exactly the same as it was last year, just he worded what he wanted me to do last year a lot better (and it was simpler).

-We will continue to allow Default Picks because there are any number of real world things that come up that may cause someone to be unable to make Picks.

-It's also important to note that Romes' Default Strategy couldn't possibly be simpler, I read it as being more complicated than it actually is.

2.) TroopScott's Picks

-Troopscott failed to make five unique Picks per Rule 3, but he does have a Bye Week to use, so he must take it. There's really no other way around that.

Quote: VCUSkyhawk

My picks are in. I spent an hour in research this week...then I flipped a coin on each game.

Good for you. I had my picks sent ( I hope in the proper format) within less than two minutes of first spotting the choices that were available. No research at all. I was shocked to have learned that I am in what might be called 'the field' or 'the pack'... those hovering at or near fifty percent.

Mission's Monday Vitriol Takes

(Fifty or Fewer Words Per Game)

Jets 17 @ Browns 21: FML. Mayfield went 17/23 for 201 yards and 0 TD. No touchdowns. 25 different guys threw a total of 48 TD's yesterday alone. Some of those guys suck. It's a little early to anoint Mayfield as the future of the franchise. Rodgers better CAREER rating than Mayfield this game.

Bills 27 @ Vikings 6: An elite QB keeps up with the Bills. I'm not saying that the Skins couldn't have treated Kurt Cousins better, but this is why they weren't terribly concerned to lose him. Minnesota can't have nice things, anyway, they prove it every time.

Giants 27 @ Texans 22: Barkley and Dopey both had great games, Dopey is good for one every now and then. Deshaun Watson put up probably the best line you'll see from him all season. Everyone will wonder why the Texans are 0-3, truth be told, I don't understand it either.

Packers 17 @ Redskins 31: Are the Packers and Vikings going to make me regret my call on the playoffs? Alex Smith is The Pointer Sisters, "Man with a slow hand," almost always gets the job done. I hate that the Chiefs SEEM to be right about Mahomes. Always been a Smith fan.

49ers 27 @ Chiefs 38: Garoppolo is out. Uh-Oh, and I definitely feel bad for Jimmy...but seriously, do the 49ers even have another QB on the roster? I mean, they were pretty much putting their hopes for the next seven years entirely on Jimmy, weren't they? Time to go back to getting Beat Hard.

Raiders 20 @ Dolphins 28: I'm assuming that Gruden still hasn't cashed any of those checks. I think Del Rio probably would have won one game by now, it'd have been easier to do with Khalil Mack on the team, after all.

Colts 16 @ Eagles 20: Wentz looks suspiciously not terribly dissimilar from Nick Foles and Andrew Luck doesn't get to benefit from an awful division anymore. Bad, probably. Awful, no.

Titans 9 @ Jaguars 6: Maybe I was wrong above and the AFC South is still awful. The fact that Blake Bortles will occasionally be completely useless and is not a good enough QB to make anything happen on his own is just a fact of life for Jags fans.

Bengals 21 @ Panthers 31: It's tough to predict exactly where rockets will land, and with that, Dalton throws four picks. The Bengals D didn't try to kill anyone yesterday, but was instead criminally bad against the run.

Broncos 14 @ Ravens 27: Case Keenum...You would think that having been a great QB would enable Horseface to identify and acquire great QB's, or at least understand the importance of the position. I guess the Broncos succeeded in making Flacco look okay.

Saints 43 @ Falcons 37: This was a well-fought shootout against two longtime rivals in the Big 12. Defense, what's that?

Chargers 23 @ Rams 35: F Dean Spanos. LA belongs to the Rams. My only concern was whether or not there would be enough fans to fill the stadium since it was both home teams. Nope. Paid attendance = Roughly 2/3rds capacity.

Bears 16 @ Cardinals 14: Late afternoon game? I wouldn't waste an informercial 2:00a.m. time slot with this garbage. Bradford should retire with his 13/19 157yd 2 TD 2 INT stat line, most Sam Bradford game ever...especially since he got pulled for a rookie who went 4/7 36yd 1 INT (almost two).

Cowboys 13 @ Seahawks 24: Russell Wilson will never be an intelligent quarterback from a game management standpoint, see end of second quarter. Instead of throwing it away, he dumps it off four yards to a receiver who is immediately tackled and 20 seconds runs off the clock. Still won. Dak Prescott blows.

Patriots 10 @ Lions 26: This kind of makes sense, tough to scheme for someone who knows your offense and how you think inside and out. Cue: "Are the Patriots Done?" and, "Is This It for Brady?" if they keep saying it, they'll eventually be right once.

Quote: Mission146

49ers 27 @ Chiefs 38: Garoppolo is out. Uh-Oh, and I definitely feel bad for Jimmy...but seriously, do the 49ers even have another QB on the roster? I mean, they were pretty much putting their hopes for the next seven years entirely on Jimmy, weren't they?

I hear there is a former 49ers activist that was supposed to be starting QB material...maybe he can stop selling shoes long enough to get back to playing....

Nah I doubt it.

The Raiders on the brink of collapse is sweet.

Normall I don't really care about sports teams much. But when the steals $1 billion from the city where I live, like to see them fail.

If Gruden is this bad, a 10 year $100 million commitment will hopefully make them the new Browns.