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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Mission146
September 22nd, 2022 at 5:36:47 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

(completely snipped some other quotes)
I "like*** " the Steelers in Tonight's game.

***: Like may be too strong a word, but I did have 250 @ +320 on them to win by 4 (or more).
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I love your takes!!!! Don’t forget to give me the college long shot pointspread/ over-under parlays. I’m going to try them this week!
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Yeah, using pinnacle and other 'books as a guide, I estimated the EV to be about +$20 to +$25 for the above Steelers' bet.

Also, I was just about to finish writing a scenario for a "college game " this week (see below).

Note: Other people could have different figures/estimates, but for the game mentioned below I currently have ~73% as the combined chance for the, " 'dog x under " and " fav' x over" (at 39% and 34%, respectively).

Quote: Mission146

(snip)
Offsetting, as I have mentioned, is something that I like for those with low bankroll such as to guarantee profits and/or make a loss impossible. Even people who do not have a low bankroll may find satisfaction in locking up guaranteed profits on something like this, but making the bet that does not have the boost, it must be mentioned, would detract from the overall value as we would assume it is not a good bet on its own.
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I agree with Mission, that offsetting / hedging "would detract from the overall value" for most scenarios (especially if your goal is maximizing "% EV on turnover").
But, it could be great for " maximizing $ EV" in certain situations (see "real life" scenario I could bet on this week, if I wanted to, below).

Scenario:
Game (College Football): CONNECTICUT @ NC STATE
Bet Type: Line/Total Double
Best odds on offer (with just two different 'books):
NC State -38.5 / Over 49.5 @ +265 ***
NC State -38.5 / Under 49.5 @ +650
Connecticut +38.5 / Over 49.5 @ +600
Connecticut +38.5 / Under 49.5 @ +250 ***

***: IMO, the "combined average" estimated EV is about 30.4% for these bets (~24% for the "Fav x Over" and the ~36% " 'dog x Under") .

Yet, if I "offset" evenly^^^ into the other two options @ +650 and +600, then my estimated EV "lowers to about +19.6...%".

^^^: If I do this so the payout is pretty much exactly the same on all options, then the estimated EV = the actual EV.

Then, from the above scenario, we can compare the "$ EV" of the two different types of bets, by applying a "modified " full Kelly betting to both bets (see 1 + 2, below).

Note 1: Assume $100,000 is the maximum you have to bet on either option.
Note 2: "Full Kelly" is the maximum you should bet (generally you would bet much smaller, especially on sports betting).

1) The "only bet on out-comes with a + estimated EV" method (simplified):
. The combined odds of our "estimated +EV" bets is: -127.11... or $1.786...
. The combined estimated EV of those bets is: about 30.4...%
. The Full Kelly amount is: 30.4...% / ($1.786... - 1) = 38.68%...
. The combined amount to bet on the two "+EV options" is ~$38,680 in total.
. $38,680 x ~30.4% = ~$11,760
. Therefore, the maximum / Full Kelly "$ EV" of the bet is ~$11,760, when betting on only the "+ estimated EV" options.

2) The "bet on all the out-comes, to guarantee a profit" method:
. The odds available for all the options are: +265 ($3.65), +650 ($7.5), +600($7) and +250 ($3.5)
. This comes to a "bookmakers' %" of (1/3.65) + (1/7.5) + (1/7) + (1/3.5) = 0.8358... = 83.58...%
. If you can get on all options evenly, then the the actual RTP, would be 1/0.8358... = 119.6...%
. The EV is 119.6% - 100% = 19.6...%
. You would bet a maximum of $100,000
. $100,000 x 19.6...% = ~$19,630 in "$ EV"

. The $19,630 "maximum $ EV" from "2)" is about $7,870 higher than "maximum $ EV" you would get from "1)".

----
Pros & Cons:

I was going to write the main Pros and Cons for "1)" and 2", but I think most of those can be worked out fairly easily, from the info above.

The only "major" con that I thought worth mentioning for "2)" that happened to me was, that my limits with one of the 'books is practically $0 now for the sport### that I used to do this heavily on.

###: I was doing a similar thing with the "line x total" on NRL (Australian Rugby League) games.

----
Hope this makes sense, spelling not checked well (as I want to go and watch the NFL game, that is on now).

---
Update - Edits (just after half-time for the Steelers' game):

General: I made some minor edits in this post.

Also, I decided to strike-through the "major con" above, because that probably would have happened, whether I did something like "method 1)" or "method 2)", with the bets for the NRL
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 22, 2022
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Mission146
September 22nd, 2022 at 8:32:35 PM permalink
I was actually ahead for the day heading into the last play of the game….. had Steelers plus 7.5, Harris TD, Chubb TD. 8-1.

Oh well…..
Ace2
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Mission146
September 22nd, 2022 at 10:41:23 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

20-19 Alabama. They got it wrong.

tuttigym
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Who are “they” ?
It’s all about making that GTA
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Mission146
September 22nd, 2022 at 11:19:07 PM permalink
In the NCAAF, I am looking at the "1st score a TD" odds for three games.

1) Kent State / Georgia has this @ -220 (the line / total for the game is: 45 / 62)
2) Central Michigan / Penn State has this @ -420 (the line / total for the game is: 28 / 63)
3) Baylor / Iowa State has this @ -230 (the line / total for the game is: 2.5 / 45.5)

Just by going through the other college football markets (not just "2)" and "3)" above) I think the "Kent State" one is likely + EV^^^ ?

^^^: I probably won't have anymore than 2200 on it if I do bet, because I usually like to know what the estimated EV is before I bet bigger than that.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Mission146
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:58:32 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: DRich



The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play



the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers

I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play


.



I predict Browns 27, Steelers 13.




very nice call AZ

when you're right you're right

and as for me - when I'm wrong - I'm dead wrong


.
"believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - Edgar Allan Poe
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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Mission146
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:25:08 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AZDuffman




.



I predict Browns 27, Steelers 13.




very nice call AZ

when you're right you're right

and as for me - when I'm wrong - I'm dead wrong


.
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Thanks. I went to bed early, looks like I even made sure not to ovderbid, lol

Now only if I had bet more than $5.........
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DRich
DRich
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Mission146ksdjdj
September 23rd, 2022 at 4:08:12 AM permalink
ksdjdj, many years ago I did some work on the difference between spreads and totals. I found that when the difference was at 15 or below there was a likely positive outcome. It looks like your UCONN v NC State game falls into that.
Order from chaos
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Mission146
September 23rd, 2022 at 4:15:50 AM permalink
deleted - bad post


.
"believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - Edgar Allan Poe
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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Mission146
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:21:34 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

ksdjdj, many years ago I did some work on the difference between spreads and totals. I found that when the difference was at 15 or below there was a likely positive outcome. It looks like your UCONN v NC State game falls into that.
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Not quite following. Can you show some example math?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Mission146
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:55:14 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

ksdjdj, many years ago I did some work on the difference between spreads and totals. I found that when the difference was at 15 or below there was a likely positive outcome. It looks like your UCONN v NC State game falls into that.
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That's interesting.
I may have posted this before, but the link below is how I work out whether a parlay would likely be + EV or not.
I also try to look for games with a line / total of 50% or more.

Scroll down to the section that starts with "Why No Same Game Parlays in Football? They Are Correlated" and then look for "College Football"

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