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Mission146
Mission146
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January 16th, 2022 at 6:26:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



First change that to closer to $910 in winnings. I donít know if they allow it, but if I recall you should bet an underdog on the money line to get maximum +EV. Iím pretty sure the Wiz and Axel, as examples, know how big an underdog is best.
link to original post



Yeah, but why? I know someone is going to rip my head off and throw it at me for spelling it out, but here you go:

Patriots +3.5 (-110) @ Dolphins -3.5 (-110)

Okay, so you throw the $1,000 bet down on both sides, Patriots to cover on one site and Dolphins on the other:

One side wins: (1000 * 100/110) + 1000 = $1909.09

One side loses: $1000 Free Bet

Okay, let's say the next half point line is:

Bengals -4.5 (-110) @ Steelers + 4.5 (-110)

Same thing, both sides again. Okay, so the return from the Free Bet if that is the side to win is $909.09. The goal is to end up with two possible amounts that are close to one another, so let's start with a $1000 Free Bet and a $500 cash bet on the site with $1,909.09 cash:

If Free Bet wins: (1909.09-500) + (1000 * 100/110) = $2,318.18

If Cash Bet wins: (1909.09) + (500 * 100/110) = $2,363.64

Okay, so maybe you're betting too much on the cash side, so you can knock the cash bet down to $475 if you want it tighter:

If Free Bet wins: (1909.09-475) + (1000 * 100/110) = $2343.18

If Cash Bet wins: (1909.09) + (475 * 100/110) = $2,340.91 (if they round the penny up)

See that? Assuming all lines are -110, then you can fix profits within a few dollars of $340 and they are 100% going to happen unless you screw something up mechanically or the sites refuse to give the bonus. The site where you win (the first bet) really can't refuse to pay.

If a person meets the following criteria:

1.) They are well-bankrolled.

AND:

2.) They are an AP regularly.

Then, maybe you can make an argument for going the route of the highest EV.

That said, if someone is just a casual gambler, doesn't have a big bankroll and/or usually wouldn't bet sports and has no plans to do so after completing the promotion, then pragmatically, I think you take the mostly guaranteed money.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 16th, 2022 at 7:03:03 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: SOOPOO



First change that to closer to $910 in winnings. I donít know if they allow it, but if I recall you should bet an underdog on the money line to get maximum +EV. Iím pretty sure the Wiz and Axel, as examples, know how big an underdog is best.
link to original post



Yeah, but why? I know someone is going to rip my head off and throw it at me for spelling it out, but here you go:

Patriots +3.5 (-110) @ Dolphins -3.5 (-110)

Okay, so you throw the $1,000 bet down on both sides, Patriots to cover on one site and Dolphins on the other:

One side wins: (1000 * 100/110) + 1000 = $1909.09

One side loses: $1000 Free Bet

Okay, let's say the next half point line is:

Bengals -4.5 (-110) @ Steelers + 4.5 (-110)

Same thing, both sides again. Okay, so the return from the Free Bet if that is the side to win is $909.09. The goal is to end up with two possible amounts that are close to one another, so let's start with a $1000 Free Bet and a $500 cash bet on the site with $1,909.09 cash:

If Free Bet wins: (1909.09-500) + (1000 * 100/110) = $2,318.18

If Cash Bet wins: (1909.09) + (500 * 100/110) = $2,363.64

Okay, so maybe you're betting too much on the cash side, so you can knock the cash bet down to $475 if you want it tighter:

If Free Bet wins: (1909.09-475) + (1000 * 100/110) = $2343.18

If Cash Bet wins: (1909.09) + (475 * 100/110) = $2,340.91 (if they round the penny up)

See that? Assuming all lines are -110, then you can fix profits within a few dollars of $340 and they are 100% going to happen unless you screw something up mechanically or the sites refuse to give the bonus. The site where you win (the first bet) really can't refuse to pay.

If a person meets the following criteria:

1.) They are well-bankrolled.

AND:

2.) They are an AP regularly.

Then, maybe you can make an argument for going the route of the highest EV.

That said, if someone is just a casual gambler, doesn't have a big bankroll and/or usually wouldn't bet sports and has no plans to do so after completing the promotion, then pragmatically, I think you take the mostly guaranteed money.
link to original post



Iím sort of disappointed in you, Mission. EV is EV. I asked a simple question, what bet can I make to get the highest EV? OF COURSE Iíd know how to guarantee a win. I actually may do that with one of my sons. Iíve also thought about the 1/2 point issue. I will read the T and Cís very carefully, and if a tie bet eliminates the offer, then NO WAY I bet on an non half point spread!

When either Wiz or Axel chime in (or anyone else who knows the math on maximizing EV) I will weigh my options. Sounds like Iíll be getting a few thousand free $$.

(Iím not really disappointed in you, MissionÖ. thanks for the analysis and suggestions)
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Mission146
January 16th, 2022 at 7:39:06 AM permalink
Is be surprised if the T&C let you bet a long shot free bet at one of these sites. Itís typically restricted to close to even money bets.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 16th, 2022 at 7:53:28 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Is be surprised if the T&C let you bet a long shot free bet at one of these sites. Itís typically restricted to close to even money bets.
link to original post



Iím (sort of) hoping you are correct. That way Iíll just go opposite my son and we will split the profits.

I will also be checking T and Cís to see if wife can do it too. Or one per Ďhouseholdí.
Mission146
Mission146
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January 16th, 2022 at 7:54:17 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Iím sort of disappointed in you, Mission. EV is EV. I asked a simple question, what bet can I make to get the highest EV? OF COURSE Iíd know how to guarantee a win. I actually may do that with one of my sons. Iíve also thought about the 1/2 point issue. I will read the T and Cís very carefully, and if a tie bet eliminates the offer, then NO WAY I bet on an non half point spread!

When either Wiz or Axel chime in (or anyone else who knows the math on maximizing EV) I will weigh my options. Sounds like Iíll be getting a few thousand free $$.

(Iím not really disappointed in you, MissionÖ. thanks for the analysis and suggestions)
link to original post



I would say that you're in a position where maximizing EV is the best thing for you to do if you don't want the guaranteed profit, and there's not necessarily a reason that you should want the guaranteed profit. As you have mentioned, you're a retired anesthesiologist, so I should imagine that you have more than a comfortable amount of money. That being the case, I would say that it makes sense you should want to go the route of maximum EV.

Many online players will not be similarly situated. I should imagine that there are a great many people in New York (and other states) who could use a few hundred virtually guaranteed, as well as several more who wouldn't want to sustain a loss of $1,000. After all, if you lose the first bet and then the, "Risk-Free," bet, you have lost $1,000. Even if you lose the first bet and win on the, "Risk-Free," bet on a minus line, then you have lost some amount overall.

The highest EV? There are so many different types of bets out there that it would be hard for me to say. I would say that, generally speaking, longer odds, 'Plus,' bets are going to tend to have higher EV. For example, let's say that your typical -110 bet can be considered as 50% to win, and that's what you do with the, "Risk-Free," bet, so that leaves you with this assuming the first bet loses:

(.5 * (1000 * 100/110)) = $454.55 (Assumes roundup to nearest penny)

Okay, so that's going to be your EV on the, "Risk-Free," bet if you lose in the first place. I've only ever seen one online casino where it's truly treated as a $1,000 bet where you get paid original bet amount AND winnings...and I don't think that's the case even there anymore. Almost all, if not all, are winnings only.

With that, if you can bet $1,000 at something like a +1000 line, that implies a 9.09% probability of winning, so you end up with something like this:

(.0909) * (1000 + (1000 * 1000/100)) = 999.9

Okay, so you take that $999.90 and subtract the expected (1000 - 454.55) if you take a loss on a -110 line after that and end up with EV of $454.45 for overall EV on a single promotion played that way.

If we compare that to just playing -110 lines straight up without offsets, there are three possible combinations of events which go:

Win
Lose-Win
Lose Lose

If we assume that everything has a 50% probability implied by the -110 lines, then you have 50%, 25% and 25% for these combinations of events, respectively. In order:

(1000) + (1000 * 100/110) = $954.55 (if rounded up to nearest penny)...so 954.55 * .5 = $477.275

(1000 * 100/110) = $909.09, which represents a net loss of $90.91 with .25 probability so, -$22.73 expected loss.

-1000 * .25 = -$250

477.275 - 22.73 - 250 = $204.545

That's why the offset method actually takes away a small amount of EV compared to the straight method; the offset method involves making more bets than would be made playing it straight up. Playing it straight up, you face the vig of making one bet 50% of the time and of making two bets 50% of the time, in comparison, you ALWAYS make two bets on each side doing offsets...one set of bets being Original + FREE BET and the other set of bets being Original + OFFSET CASH BET.

So, playing both promotions straight up would give EV of roughly $409 played straight up with losing possible. The long odds way that I described would have an overall EV of roughly $909 on two promotions, but your probability of profit would not be very great played that way. And, pursuant to my previous post, and assuming all -110 lines, you can GUARANTEE profits of roughly $340 with no risk of losing whatsoever, other than them not honoring the promotion or the player making a mechanical mistake.

So, best/better EV with low probability of profit, 'Normal,' EV with a pretty good probability of overall profit or less EV but you can't fail to profit. It's whichever you prefer. I don't know what certainty equivalent analysis would suggest of these options, but for me, the guaranteed profits are good enough in all cases that I'll just take them.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 16th, 2022 at 7:55:22 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Is be surprised if the T&C let you bet a long shot free bet at one of these sites. Itís typically restricted to close to even money bets.
link to original post



Iím (sort of) hoping you are correct. That way Iíll just go opposite my son and we will split the profits.

I will also be checking T and Cís to see if wife can do it too. Or one per Ďhouseholdí.
link to original post



It is absolutely almost always going to be one per household. If it is not; it will be the first time in my life I have seen an online casino (stateside or offshore) to not have that provision.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 16th, 2022 at 8:05:09 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Is be surprised if the T&C let you bet a long shot free bet at one of these sites. Itís typically restricted to close to even money bets.
link to original post



I'm actually not sure about this exactly because I just take the guaranteed profits every time. I do know that the sites usually have provisions against going with massively minus odds (high probability of winning), I think I have seen no more than -200 or -300.

I would definitely take a look at the Terms and Conditions to see if huge plus odds are restricted on bonuses. At a certain point, I would think they probably are, but I wouldn't know what that point (if any) generally is and have never cared to look.

It's also possible that they won't restrict the initial bet to anything, but will restrict what you can do with the free bet. Again, none of this has ever mattered to me because I just do offsets and take the guaranteed money...but definitely something to look at closely.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 16th, 2022 at 8:17:35 AM permalink
Also, you'll definitely want to confirm the +LINE in the longer post previously. I'm sure that the math was correct, but I might have looked at the problem incorrectly. Specifically, (.0909) * (1000 + (1000 * 1000/100) might be better just to be (.0909) * (1000 * 1000/100) = $909 EV and then do all the rest of the stuff because I actually probably shouldn't have included the original $1,000 as part of the EV.

So then $909.90 - (.9091 * 545.45)---I should also have factored in the probability of losing the long shot bet and I didn't in that post; I just treated it like 100% by mistake.

So, $414.03 EV (Rounded to nearest penny), which is EV of roughly $828 on two promotions, assuming I did it right this time...still better than the others. I still like 100% guaranteed profit; can't figure a way not to. It would be one thing if it was something less than a 100% guarantee, then I would start to really contemplate the EV, but it's literally a 100% probability of profit.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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January 16th, 2022 at 8:58:50 AM permalink
The concept called CE or certainty equivalent is where the guaranteed win can be better than taking the less frequent win, higher EV play and basically what I think you are debating. Card counting software specifically measures both the EV and CE of a given game and spread entered. Itís derived from finance but there has to be non zero risk for it to applicable.

Entirely depends on size of bankroll put into the equation if it mathematically makes sense to take the lower volatility guaranteed win. Top of my head, if someone is kelly betting (which in this size of advantage would probably only be a high four figure bankroll), certainty equivalent is roughly 50%-60% of EV for someone betting half Kelly to full Kelly in blackjack card counting. If someone bets double Kelly despite the EV being higher they actually have a negative certainty equivalent, iow they are likely to go bust even though they have an advantage.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 16th, 2022 at 11:07:51 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

(snip)I donít know if they allow it, but if I recall you should bet an underdog on the money line to get maximum +EV. Iím pretty sure the Wiz and Axel, as examples, know how big an underdog is best.
link to original post

I'm pretty sure too and it's the opposite of lilredrooster's assertion link to original post
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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