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49 members have voted

Mission146
Mission146
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January 24th, 2021 at 6:08:58 PM permalink
It was encroachment, not offsides, because an offensive player was touched.

I know TB could have declined the distance, (which would be decided by offensive captain, Tom Brady, not Bruce Arians) but I think they might have no choice but to take the down for that. Even if not, then Brady might have simply wanted it to be first down figuring that they at least get the first down and have the opportunity to burn all of Green Bay's time outs. If Green Bay had somehow managed to stop them on second and third down, then TB would be punting to them and they'd still have a time out in their pocket.

Green Bay kicking the field goal was baffling.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
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January 24th, 2021 at 6:16:08 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill


He might not have the skills of some of the other QBs out there but somehow he keeps on winning.



(Quote clipped, relevance)

401/610 (65.7%) 4,633 YDS 40 TD 13 INT QB RATE: 102.2 YPA: 7.6 YPC: 11.6

Passing TD: T-2nd
QB RATE: 9th
Completions: 2nd
Passing Yards: 3rd

I don't know what else anybody could possibly want from him on a brand new team and with severely limited offseason prep.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
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January 24th, 2021 at 6:36:20 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

(Quote clipped, relevance)

401/610 (65.7%) 4,633 YDS 40 TD 13 INT QB RATE: 102.2 YPA: 7.6 YPC: 11.6

Passing TD: T-2nd
QB RATE: 9th
Completions: 2nd
Passing Yards: 3rd

I don't know what else anybody could possibly want from him on a brand new team and with severely limited offseason prep.


I guess I should say he canít run and is slow, but donít get me wrong imo he is the GOAT.
His book motivated me also,I lost 25 lbs and have kept it off for 3 years now. Stay hydrated.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
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January 24th, 2021 at 7:10:52 PM permalink
I see KC is -3.5 over TB. Gotta think KC covers that.
TomG
TomG
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January 24th, 2021 at 7:14:50 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

The math is the math. He lessened his teams chances from 10% to 9%. Not a good call, obviously , but doesnít even get honorable mention in the pantheon of bad calls.

Remember, even if successful, they still need 2 point conversion. And then they still need to stop Hrady from driving down field for a field goal. And even if that is successful they only get to OT with 50% chance of winning. The decision he made just required stopping Brady, then driving for winning TD. As stated., likelihood of your plan working was 10%, versus the plan GB chose being 9%.



You are misrepresenting things here, by ignoring the two minutes left after the fourth down play. If the Packers stopped Brady and drove for a touchdown after kicking a field goal, that means we would expect them to have also stopped him and drove for a score after going for in on fourth down.

If they go for it on fourth down and miss the TD, the Bucs have the ball on the 8 up by 8, and the Packers are somewhat worse off compared to being down 5 and the Bucs have the ball of the 25. If they go for it on fourth and make the TD, worst case is they are down by two. So now they only have to stop Brady and drive for the game winning score. Which is what they had to do anyway, except they would only have to drive for a field goal instead of a TD. Or best case, it is tied, and likely heading into OT, but they still had the chance to stop Brady and score -- which is what they had to do anyway after kicking the field goal.

I'm curious where you are getting the 10% compared to 9%. The live betting markets I was watching had it around 10%, then took it off the board once it went to 31-26. If the Packers really had 1-in11 chance, down by 5 with two minutes left and the Bucs with the ball, I would think the sportsbooks would have kept taking bets at +700 / -1500.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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January 24th, 2021 at 7:29:23 PM permalink
Found this interesting video of Bills fan "culture." Apparently a large portion of them think they are soon to be professional wrestlers practicing their moves on folding tables. So Soopoo, have you ever jumped through a folding table?

SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 24th, 2021 at 7:36:21 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Found this interesting video of Bills fan "culture." Apparently a large portion of them think they are soon to be professional wrestlers practicing their moves on folding tables. So Soopoo, have you ever jumped through a folding table?



Not me! But there is one viral video of a what looks to be insane guy going through a table.... I know his wife from work.... and he is a dentist!

Answering where I got the 9 and 10% figures.... apparently ESPN has a Ďwin % calculatorí. It updates after every play I think.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 25th, 2021 at 3:59:12 AM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

I guess I should say he canít run and is slow, but donít get me wrong imo he is the GOAT.
His book motivated me also,I lost 25 lbs and have kept it off for 3 years now. Stay hydrated.



Tom Brady, a true dual-threat quarterback, has rushed for over 1,000 yards and 25 TD in his young career.

I jest, but did you see the time he juked Urlacher?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAt6S1RHBYs

What do you do against that kind of blazing speed and dexterous footwork?
Vultures can't be choosers.
redietz
redietz
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January 25th, 2021 at 8:24:28 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

You are misrepresenting things here, by ignoring the two minutes left after the fourth down play. If the Packers stopped Brady and drove for a touchdown after kicking a field goal, that means we would expect them to have also stopped him and drove for a score after going for in on fourth down.

If they go for it on fourth down and miss the TD, the Bucs have the ball on the 8 up by 8, and the Packers are somewhat worse off compared to being down 5 and the Bucs have the ball of the 25. If they go for it on fourth and make the TD, worst case is they are down by two. So now they only have to stop Brady and drive for the game winning score. Which is what they had to do anyway, except they would only have to drive for a field goal instead of a TD. Or best case, it is tied, and likely heading into OT, but they still had the chance to stop Brady and score -- which is what they had to do anyway after kicking the field goal.

I'm curious where you are getting the 10% compared to 9%. The live betting markets I was watching had it around 10%, then took it off the board once it went to 31-26. If the Packers really had 1-in11 chance, down by 5 with two minutes left and the Bucs with the ball, I would think the sportsbooks would have kept taking bets at +700 / -1500.




A key element you are overlooking here is that the live odds are generated as a "generic algorithm" that lacks specificity not only to the teams involved, but the nature of the game (low versus high scoring) and any weather conditions. So the lines that are spit out are in reference to some all-encompassing broad data base, not a specific one. And that's where opinions come in. The games are still games of opinion.

Sometimes heuristics are much better than the algorithms. Depends on the game conditions; depends on the teams. The algorithms are general, not coach or quarterback-specific, for example. And even when the algorithms become team and quarterback specific, which I imagine will happen sometime soon, that isn't the end of the story. How hard somebody got thumped all game is a heuristic judgement that would certainly factor into what the odds should be as opposed to a crystalline algorithm.

Eventually, who knows, maybe 50 years from now, AI will "see" the games better than human heuristics. But not yet. Not now.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 25th, 2021 at 9:24:06 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

A key element you are overlooking here is that the live odds are generated as a "generic algorithm" that lacks specificity not only to the teams involved, but the nature of the game (low versus high scoring) and any weather conditions. So the lines that are spit out are in reference to some all-encompassing broad data base, not a specific one. And that's where opinions come in. The games are still games of opinion.

Sometimes heuristics are much better than the algorithms. Depends on the game conditions; depends on the teams. The algorithms are general, not coach or quarterback-specific, for example. And even when the algorithms become team and quarterback specific, which I imagine will happen sometime soon, that isn't the end of the story. How hard somebody got thumped all game is a heuristic judgement that would certainly factor into what the odds should be as opposed to a crystalline algorithm.

Eventually, who knows, maybe 50 years from now, AI will "see" the games better than human heuristics. But not yet. Not now.



Great post. The best example of this is 'week 17', when some teams don't even care if they win. A human can sometimes tell that by just seeing which QB a coach is starting. I text with my son about win % all the time. Yesterday, mid Bills game it was around 10%, but when I asked him, he just said ZERO!

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