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billryan
billryan
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January 19th, 2021 at 9:34:26 AM permalink
I see it as a vote of confidence in his defense. He believed his defense could stop them from marching 75 yards or 50 yards. That being the case, run, pass, or punt all produce the same results.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 19th, 2021 at 9:53:21 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I see it as a vote of confidence in his defense. He believed his defense could stop them from marching 75 yards or 50 yards. That being the case, run, pass, or punt all produce the same results.




not if there's a pick or a sack or a fumble
but, I'll grant you - he probably did think about it that way


the bottom line to me is this - it is important just as probabilities are important


he had a pretty easy win - it wouldn't have been very hard for his defense to prevent a TD - the vast majority of the time

instead of taking an easy win, he asked his team to do something hard - something that's not so easy



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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 19, 2021
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mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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January 19th, 2021 at 10:12:30 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster



he had a pretty easy win - it wouldn't have been very hard for his defense to prevent a TD - the vast majority of the time

instead of taking an easy win, he asked his team to do something hard - something that's not so easy



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I guess but when you call it ďeasy winĒ, odds are they still stop them from scoring a touchdown even if they fail to convert by far the majority of the time and by converting they eliminated the possibility so itís ďeasyĒ either way just higher variance. Higher variance decision for sure, a decision most coaches probably wouldnít be willing to make for no other reason than their job security isnít cemented to the degree Reidís is .
TomG
TomG
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January 19th, 2021 at 10:48:09 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

there probably is some data on a QB throwing a pass on 4th and inches
but I doubt it includes a power ranking of the particular QB
and again, this was a weak backup QB - so, without that power ranking I doubt the data would be meaningful



We need to first ask "go for it or punt"? Which is just straight probability. Then we can ask "run or pass"? Which is not as straightforward, because even if data shows that run is better, teams should not always run, because then defense would only try to stop the run, and then pass would become better. It becomes game-theory and not algebra. Ideally, the play call would be completely random, with about 80-90% run and 10-20% pass. Here is a good article on it: http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/08/play-calling-on-3rd-and-short-part-1.html
billryan
billryan
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January 19th, 2021 at 12:35:46 PM permalink
duplicate post deleted.
billryan
billryan
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January 19th, 2021 at 12:36:25 PM permalink
My take on it was they went into the play hoping to draw them off-sides. Second option was the pass, but only if the guy was uncovered. If he was covered, take a delay of game and then punt.
Fortune favors the bold
Mission146
Mission146
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January 19th, 2021 at 12:51:17 PM permalink
Ugh! I lost an hour!

I was trying to figure out a way to use the BetRivers bonus on Super Bowl futures combined with their deposit bonus for an article. Ultimately, I was able to determine a way to make a futures bet on Tampa Bay by which you literally COULD NOT lose money, but it's not as good as the most, "Standard," way to play the bonus in terms of Expected Value (though the upside is a little better compared to the, 'Safest,' way).

Anyway, here is the combination of bets:

The first thing that you're doing is taking the $250 Deposit Match bonus to make the +450 Super Bowl Futures bet (BetRivers) on Tampa Bay:

Bet: $500 ($250 Actual)

Return: 500 + (500 * 4.5) = $2750

Profit: $2500 (Remember, the $250 match bonus represents profit if Tampa Bay wins)

Okay, so now what we have to do is make as little in bets as possible to cover our total action.

The way we are going to do this is by making a futures bet on all three other teams. As of the time this was written, it appears that we can get +220 on both Green Bay and Kansas City.

Kansas City + 220:

Bet: $700

To Win: $2240

Profit: $1540

Green Bay +220:

Bet: $700

To Win: $2240

Profit: $1540

Buffalo

Bet: $520

To Win: $2210

Profit: $1690

And, here's what we end up with:

Winner---Profit Less Losses---Result

Tampa Bay: $2500 - $700 - $700 - $520 = $580

Kansas City: $1540 - $700 - $520 - $250 = $70

Green Bay: $1540 - $700 - $520 - $250 = $70

Buffalo: $1690 - $700 - $700 - $250 = $40

As you can see, because of the deposit match, we can do this in a way that is guaranteed to make money. The next thing that we are going to do is to try to balance out our possible results by betting $125 more on Kansas City and Green Bay as well as $100 more on Buffalo.


Kansas City + 220:

Bet: $825

To Win: $2640

Profit: $1815

Green Bay +220:

Bet: $825

To Win: $2640

Profit: $1815

Buffalo

Bet: $620

To Win: $2635

Profit: $2015

And, here's what we end up with:

Winner---Profit Less Losses---Result

Tampa Bay: $2500 - $825 - $825 - $620 = $230

Kansas City: $1815 - $825 - $620 - $250 = $120

Green Bay: $1815 - $825 - $620 - $250 = $120

Buffalo: $2015 - $825- $825 - $250 = $115

You can continue to normalize the results from there, if you want to, but the ultimate result will be a guaranteed profit. Unfortunately, the standard way of playing this particular deposit results in a better expected return that, while technically not guaranteed, is basically guaranteed as long as you play it very conservatively.

Another Option

Another option would be if yourself and three confederates all did the deposit bonus at BetRivers and you all picked a different team for a $500 bet. This is really easy because you just win what you win and $750 in actual cash is essentially sacrificed every time. You keep the funds from the deposit match itself, so those count as profits.

(500 * 2.0) + 250 - 750 = +$500 (Kansas City)

(500 * 2.2) + 250 - 750 = +$600 (Green Bay)

(500 * 3.25) + 250 - 750 = +$1125 (Buffalo)

(500 * 4.5) + 250 - 750 = +$1750 (Tampa Bay)

Okay, so let's look at the implied probability of each result and add the values together:

(500 *.3333) + (600 * .3125) + (1125 * .2353) + (1750 * .1818)---

Okay, obviously this adds up to more than 100%, so I'm just going to round off in an arbitrary way because who the hell can put an exact probability on these?

(500 *.315) + (600 * .3) + (1125 * .21) + (1750 * .175) = $880

Ultimately, the expected final profit of $1,000 in total CASH bets and $2,000 in total bets counting the bonus is a profit of $880. The two pieces of good news are this:

1.) You can't possibly lose.

2.) It's a pretty healthy edge.

The downside is that the, "Standard," way of playing this bonus would actually have an expected profit of $980+ assuming $1,000 in bonus funds (four players) to use. Not only that, but with the Standard way of playing the bonus (combined with patience) it's virtually impossible that you would only end up with $880 in total profits. You'd have to run terribly for that to occur. Much less would you only end up with $500 in profits (like if Kansas City won) that's just not possible.

So, if you know what I mean when I keep saying, "Standard way," just do that.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
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January 19th, 2021 at 1:06:20 PM permalink
One other thing:

Another option that you can do is just two way a MoneyLine with a confederate. In this case, you want your Bonus Funds to be getting the +ODDS.

Tampa Bay +150 @ Green Bay -170

Tampa Bay: $500 ($250 actual cash) to win $1250 and profit $1000 (The deposit match becomes cash profits)

Green Bay: $780 to win $1238.82 and profit $458.82

If Tampa Bay wins, then you finish ahead $220.

If Green Bay wins, then you finish ahead $208.82.

You can normalize your results even more than that if you want to. You could also do this with a confederate who also takes the bonus, but then you would just want a -110 spread bet on a decimal or -110 Over/Under on any decimal.

The winning bet would see a win of $954.54 which came about with $250 actual cash. Therefore, the profits are $704.54.

The other side would lose the $250 that was actual cash, the other $250 of the $500 bet was bonus funds.

The combined two people would have guaranteed TOTAL profits of $454.54.

Functionally, this is literally making a $500 bet at -110 knowing that you can only win.

And, it's a guaranteed sum, but still not the best way to play $500 of the bonus money which would have an expected return of $490+. I guess playing it the most standard way as conservatively as possible there's a chance you would finish worse than $454.54, but I'd be surprised.

What I will say is that, if you start looking at hourly earn, the offsetting bets is probably the best way to play it if you want zero variance as well.
Vultures can't be choosers.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 19th, 2021 at 2:18:36 PM permalink
Quote: billryan


Fortune favors the bold




I totally get it
kind of like Custer at Little Big Horn and Napoleon at Waterloo.........................................................................(-:\




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billryan
billryan
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January 19th, 2021 at 2:26:40 PM permalink
More like Chamberlain at Gettysburg or even Jackson at Chancellorsville.

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