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Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
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January 18th, 2021 at 6:08:45 AM permalink
AFC has to take down the Super Bowl this year right? Anyone know current odds AFC vs NFC? I would assume AFC favored by 3 or 3.5
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 18th, 2021 at 6:26:00 AM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

AFC has to take down the Super Bowl this year right? Anyone know current odds AFC vs NFC? I would assume AFC favored by 3 or 3.5



Packers +3 or 3.5 is tasty. If it's Packers Chiefs, 3 seems right. If it's Packers Bills, Packers are small faves.

I can't figure out what Brady/Bucs would be....
DeMango
DeMango
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January 18th, 2021 at 9:04:45 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


I can't figure out what Brady/Bucs would be....


Here is hoping week 6 repeats!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 19th, 2021 at 3:15:57 AM permalink
..................

Zion is a terror on inside power moves to the basket and his 2pt. FG% is a tremendous .581
but his game is not a total crush
he doesn't shoot 3s and doesn't have an outside game
his free throw shooting is very weak at .636
his rebounding is good at 8.3 per game but it's only a little more than half of the best guy in the league
his Pelicans are 5-7


https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willizi01.html
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 19th, 2021 at 6:05:45 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

..................

Zion is a terror on inside power moves to the basket and his 2pt. FG% is a tremendous .581
but his game is not a total crush
he doesn't shoot 3s and doesn't have an outside game
his free throw shooting is very weak at .636
his rebounding is good at 8.3 per game but it's only a little more than half of the best guy in the league
his Pelicans are 5-7


https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willizi01.html



My Ďeye testí on him has him better than his numbers. His team is lacking overall talent. Heís a top 30 player in the league. And likely to get better.

James Harden and Kevin Durant together are meshing well. We will see how Kyrie fits in when his vacation is over.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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January 19th, 2021 at 6:32:40 AM permalink
That team has talent but itís less than the sum of its parts because itís not complimentary. Made no sense for them to trade assets for Steven Adams, a big who is going to accomplish nothing offensively but clog the lane for Zion. Serious lack of outside shooting which is exactly what would make him more dangerous. Best outside shooters in the lineup are Ball and Ingram who are kind of meh out there and Adams, Bledsoe, Zion complete non shooters, the spacing sucks, Zion doesnít have enough room to operate.

The thing Iíve noticed is Zions own lack of shooting doesnít really hurt him like it would most players, teams canít sag off him in the corner without paying for it. When they do he gets a running start at the basket when he receives the ball and heís simply unstoppable with a running start to the basket with his combo of strength and explosiveness.
TomG
TomG
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January 19th, 2021 at 6:46:43 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

....................


4th & inches from about the 40 with less than 2 minutes to go Andy Reid decides to go for it
even though with a good punt he could have backed the Browns up to about the 10 yard line
even though the Browns needed a TD to win, otherwise a loss
even though the Browns had no timeouts left
as if that wasn't enough, on the play he has his backup QB throw a pass even though the guy had already thrown a really ugly pick
and except for his excellent run creating the 4th and inches situation Henne looked lost out there

here's the stats on Henne - the QB Andy Reid had so much faith in
he played one and one half quarters - he threw for 66 yards - no TDs and one ugly pick
he put 3 points on the board - which averages out to be about 8 for an entire game

now, it's guaranteed the commentators will be calling Andy Reid a genius
if it had backfired they would be calling him an idiot

the real geniuses are the sports talking heads wearing $3,000 suits


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Any opinion of something like this should really just be straightforward algebra.

Go for it on fourth down, what is the probability of making it?

Punt and what is the probability of pinning the Browns compared to probability of a touchback?

What is the probability the Browns can go 50 yards for a TD in a 1:50? 75 yards? 90 yards?

The answers to those questions will tell us what the right call is. And if someone cannot speculate about the answers to those questions, their opinion about the right call has no value.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 19th, 2021 at 7:10:38 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

Any opinion of something like this should really just be straightforward algebra.


What is the probability
. And if someone cannot speculate about the answers to those questions, their opinion about the right call has no value.



I can't give exactly probabilities
but even with a touchback I can speculate the with any QB other than Rodgers, Brady or Mahomes that it is an extreme longshot that the team will go 75 yards and score a TD with 1:52 left and no timeouts

the throwing of a pass with a weak QB in that situation increased the risk greatly for the Chiefs

I can accept your estimation that my opinion has no value - but it has value to me - that's why I posted
that's what people do on a forum - they post - there is no requirement that they provide exact calculations before expressing an opinion
if nobody else values it - that's okay - I'll survive

and also, if you tried to compute the probabilities -
you could likely not find a great many exact replicas or close to exact replicas of that situation
so, because of variance - a calculation based on that would likely not be worth much

I seriously doubt you could data mine many situations where a weak backup QB threw a pass on 4th and inches at a critical point in the game with less than 2 minutes left


*
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
TomG
TomG
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January 19th, 2021 at 7:27:01 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

and also, if you tried to compute the probabilities -
you could likely not find a great many exact replicas or close to exact replicas of that situation
so, because of variance - a calculation based on that would likely not be worth much



There is quite a lot of data about teams going for it on 4th and 1. The run v pass isn't necessary to analyze, because that is game-theory that is already built into that data. On all the previous 4th and 1 attempts teams had the option to either run or pass, and used whatever they believed maximized their chance of getting it. I would give the Chiefs a 66% chance of making it.

If there is an extreme longshot to go 75 yards in 1:50, then that should also mean going 50 yards is also a pretty big long shot. So long as it is no more than three time greater, then going for it on fourth down was correct. If we say Browns had a 10% chance of going 75-yards, punting would be correct only if the Browns had a greater than 30% chance of going 50 yards for a TD? I cannot see both the 10% and >30% as being true based on those 25-yards of field position.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 19th, 2021 at 7:34:58 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

The run v pass isn't necessary to analyze, because that is game-theory that is already built into that data.




there probably is some data on a QB throwing a pass on 4th and inches
but I doubt it includes a power ranking of the particular QB
and again, this was a weak backup QB - so, without that power ranking I doubt the data would be meaningful


and it wasn't just that the Browns would have had to go 75 yards or more in 1:50
they would have had to do it with no timeouts
that makes it a lot harder to do



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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jan 19, 2021
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾

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