Tout Crushing MLB

so far anyway. he's 14-8-1 and doesn't seem to picking heavy faves. he's won about 20% of all the money wagered.

his picks are free. it's a lightly traveled website.

it's early but still.




https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/showthread.php?4768-Dan-Druff-s-MLB-picks-2018&p=63564#post63564

He did quite well in NBA as well, at least as far as I observed. He was betting multiple games a day, too.

Oh my.

Is this forum just about the most credulous little tree fort of desperate wannabelievers or what?

Quote: 04-02-2018 - Dan Druff

History:

Did well in 2016 (didn't keep track of dollar value, but I won for sure)

Had a bad start to 2017 and quit early in the season.

New strategy for this year.

Quote: 04-14-2018 - Dan Druff

Note that I'm 9-2-1 with unders and 2-5-1 with everything else, so ...<SNIP>...

^ [Highlighting added]

Congrats. On "crushing" about ten or twelve days of unseasonably cold & wet weather in the east & midwest. Over any significant length of time MLB run-total 'unders' will win 51.2%, year after year after year, and in recent years (since a change in MLB's contracted baseball manufacturing from Haiti to Costa Rica significantly increased slugging pcts after July 2015) runs per game average 9.3 across all of MLB. During this brief cold snap to start the '18 season unders are 57.1% and runs/game are 8.54 (my aggregate data on lines & scoring updated through Thursday, April 12).

But he seems like a nice enough fellow and appears to be a pretty honest guy (for a gambler). So good luck, and be sure to bet all of grandma's piggy bank on that continuing for another five and a half months.

Quote: DrawingDead

Oh my.

Is this forum just about the most credulous little tree fort of desperate wannabelievers or what?

I am very sorry. I should have been more clear.

I am not able to issue a guarantee that he will continue to win.

There is sometalk that the ball changed again or something too.

I personally wouldn't tail him and expect the market to have adjusted to the totals. But i am trying to get most of my SP streaming in fantasy done.

I would not call Dan a tout.

And I would not call 14-8 crushing anything

Quote: lilredrooster

so far anyway. he's 14-8-1 and doesn't seem to picking heavy faves.

Since his picks are allegedly free, I'll let the link stand. However, as a reminder, touts are strictly not allowed to promote their services on this site, even through another party.

Quote: michael99000

And I would not call 14-8 crushing anything

Since MLB bets are on the moneyline 14-8 does not mean much of anything at all.

I also stated that he has won about 20% of all the money wagered which is much more meaningful.

Some who are very knowledgeable about sports betting say that the very best against the spread paying 10/11 can hit no more than 57% within a representative sample.

57% works about to be about 9% profit of all the money wagered.

So far he has doubled that.

It is impressive to me, although I admit it's too early to imply that he will end up having done very well.

But, to me it is interesting.

But I will concede that the word I chose, "crushing" was not the best choice of words. Too strong and it made me look like a tout.

I don't know the guy or have any interest in that website succeeding at all.

If and when the guy stops winning I will completely lose interest.

One week last fall I went 13-3 picking NFL games. Won $1,000.

I know nothing about football.

Quote:

...2-5-1 with everything else...

If he was able to maintain that 25% success rate of picking sides on the moneyline mostly at an implied odds price of close to 50% or even money-ish over a significant sample then I too will be impressed. Such a person could have a cushy & amusing career opportunity as a 'cooler.'

I'm glad the thread/link is staying up, on a practical level because I think it is utterly harmless (much more so than multiple others that have been long-running) and aesthetically because he isn't all full of the usual chest-thumping big-swingin-duck crowing pretense. Also, even more, because I like that site of his in his signature line link. I *think* it would *probably* be within bounds for me to post-up that "pokerfraud..." site url here, but since I'm only about -120 on the moneyline for that I'll put it in a separate post immediately following to make it easy to whack it if it isn't wanted.

Linky-poo to the OP's OOP's apparent home forum in his signature line over yonder: Poker Fraud Alert

Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.

Quote: Wizard

Since his picks are allegedly free, I'll let the link stand. However, as a reminder, touts are strictly not allowed to promote their services on this site, even through another party.

Although he rarely posts, Todd (DanDruff) is a member here.

IIRC he had a good NBA season after hundreds of picks. I didn't really keep up perhaps someone knows more and can share.

Quote: AxelWolf

IIRC he had a good NBA season after hundreds of picks. I didn't really keep up perhaps someone knows more and can share.

this is what he posted on 4/14:

"Overall NBA record to date: 179-159-6 (52.96%)
So that's a little above the 52.38% mark you need to have a profitable season, but not by much."


that is not at all impressive.

IMHO he picked too many games. he seemed to feel he had an obligation to make a pick or picks almost every day

he sometimes made 4 or 5 picks in one day

again, IMHO if he had limited himself to his very strongest opinions, fewer bets, he would have done much better.

here's what he'd done so far:

"GRAND TOTAL: 63-50-2, +16.254 units
Overs: 2-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 36-24-2
Moneyline: 23-21 (a good deal ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)"

Pretty good so far. will he keep it up? who knows?

he's not like Steeldco using a logarithm. He looks closely at each match up sometimes commenting. this guy REALLY knows baseball imo.

he bases his record on betting the same amount on each game he bets

Quote: lilredrooster

he's not like Steeldco using a logarithm.

Do you mean algorithm?

Quote: Wizard

Do you mean algorithm?

yeah, that's what I meant. I didn't even know what a logarithm is until you pointed out the error and I looked it up. pretty amusing that I switched them out like that.

these are his results - more than halfway thru the season:

Grand total: 74-62-2, +14.929 units
Overs: 3-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 45-28-2
Moneyline: 24-29 (around even in units)

in my thread title maybe I went overboard in using the word "crush"
but he's over 10% ROI overall

and crush does seem to be the right word looking just at his unders which he has picked winners at 61.6% if you don't count the pushes and 60% if you do

anyway should you count the pushes when calculating the ROI and win%? who knows? take your pick

Quote: lilredrooster

anyway should you count the pushes when calculating the ROI and win%? who knows? take your pick

The best way to do it is just divide the number of units won by the number of units bet. The actual record means nothing because of the money lines in baseball. Most games you will be betting 1.05 units to for each 1 unit of win.

The name of this thread is missing the letter R

Trout crushing MLB

Credit where it is due: I do think his "unders" to date for '18 are pretty interesting so far. And none of the rest. Apparently he thinks so too, since picking spots to go under the run total has made up the bulk of his bets all season to date.

Part of why I find it interesting is a parochial personal coincidence, just because this year for the first time I've started doing some things with the MLB run total lines, and since that is a relatively new niche for me to go into I'm still monkeying around with them. Interesting that his success is specifically with under the total, not really with O/U totals generally. "Under" generally outperforms a bit, year after year. And that's another way of saying betting "over" + favorite tends to be a bit more of the popular side of the line to take in the betting market. But generally not nearly enough to profit by betting "under" blindly, and not to the extent of his results so far this season.

There are some other cautionary factors to be aware of. Weather early in the season was a significant factor pushing run totals down more than usual, to the degree that for a while a blind under-monkey really would have done well. And perhaps more importantly for season-long expectation on run totals betting, there's enough data to create at least a strong suspicion that last year's historic "juiced ball" season that pushed median run totals to the stratosphere in many ballparks may have now been corrected or even over-corrected for this season. Of course the lines available for betting follow these changes, eventually, with some lag and inefficiency.

I'd be very interested in any discussion he may have had or hints given on his approach to selecting his MLB "under" spots. Specifically those, and only those, to my mind. I haven't seen any from skimming his thread on that site occasionally, and of course it is perfectly understandable that he may not choose to give any.

Btw, Druff is betting one unit on every game. So if a unit is $100, he's always betting that $100. If the line is +105, he bets $100 to win $105. If the line is -110, then he's betting $100 to win $90.90.