Poll

2 votes (25%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (37.5%)
1 vote (12.5%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (25%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (37.5%)

8 members have voted

Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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February 8th, 2018 at 6:39:14 PM permalink
Greetings!

It seems that threads tend to foster more conversation than Article Comments, and it also seems that more people read the Articles if there is a separate thread about them. At least, that seems true in a sample size of one.

For your consideration, here is an Article about the Cleveland Browns' most recent season:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/a-retrospective-on-the-cleveland-browns/

As many of you know, the, 'Perfect,' 0-16 season by the, 'Factory of Sadness,' would result in an 0-16 parade. My article examines whether or not the Browns performed as badly as they should have, or if it took a combination of awfulness and Variance for them to finish the season the way they did.

I also breakdown exactly how likely their 0-16 Season was as compared to the Detroit Lions' 2008 campaign.

Would it be a good bet if you can get money down on them repeating next season? Depends on the odds, of course, but it would be neat if someone offered that as a prop.

You can vote for multiple options in the poll.
Vultures can't be choosers.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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February 8th, 2018 at 7:11:32 PM permalink
I tried to read it but it was way too long for me (and I am from Cleveland).
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 11666
February 8th, 2018 at 7:49:57 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I tried to read it but it was way too long for me (and I am from Cleveland).



Did you read the XFL one? Much longer. This one came in under 3k, that's on the short end, for me.

Maybe just skip down to under the last chart and read from there, it's basically a summary.
Vultures can't be choosers.
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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  • Posts: 8417
February 9th, 2018 at 6:11:56 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

....(and I am from Cleveland).



sorry
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
February 9th, 2018 at 6:56:08 AM permalink
Thank you for taking the time to write this article! One aspect that I love about sports is goofiness, and a 0-16 NFL season certainly qualifies for that category! That you took the time to analyze not only the Browns' season of ineptitude, but also compare it to the Lions' 0-16 campaign, is reason to thank the existence of the Internet and the ability to share knowledge: I wouldn't have done such an analysis, but I'm pleased SOMEone did! Again, thanks!
RenoGambler
RenoGambler
Joined: Apr 23, 2016
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  • Posts: 47
February 9th, 2018 at 7:37:14 AM permalink
The real question is how long they can keep this streak going. They're at 17 L's in a row now. Do they reach 20? 25? Or do they pull off a real miracle and win multiple games in the same season? With that roster they shouldn't be this bad. But they always seem to find a way to Browns up the situation and make it considerably worse than it needs to be.
Variance giveth and variance taketh away.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 11666
February 9th, 2018 at 10:09:57 AM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

Thank you for taking the time to write this article! One aspect that I love about sports is goofiness, and a 0-16 NFL season certainly qualifies for that category! That you took the time to analyze not only the Browns' season of ineptitude, but also compare it to the Lions' 0-16 campaign, is reason to thank the existence of the Internet and the ability to share knowledge: I wouldn't have done such an analysis, but I'm pleased SOMEone did! Again, thanks!



Thanks for the compliment! I’m glad you enjoyed the article!
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 118
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February 9th, 2018 at 10:16:18 AM permalink
Quote: RenoGambler

The real question is how long they can keep this streak going. They're at 17 L's in a row now. Do they reach 20? 25? Or do they pull off a real miracle and win multiple games in the same season? With that roster they shouldn't be this bad. But they always seem to find a way to Browns up the situation and make it considerably worse than it needs to be.



It’s a tough situation. I don’t know how long they can ride out this solid run of ineptitude, but let’s take a moment and realize how close they are to 35 L’s in a row!!! Week 16, 2016 season, saving them from that dubious distinction.

It’s hard to say when they will win. The Browns are walking proof of gambler’s fallacy, honestly. You say, “Eventually, they have to win,” you say, “Eventually, something between 1-6 has to show on the Roulette wheel,” and then it just doesn’t.

I can’t imagine they’ll ever be favored in a game again (they were this year against the Colts) until they win. That means they’ll always be more likely than not to lose...Each game doesn’t care what happened the game before that.

Except, in football, each game sort of does a little bit...

Who knows how long this could go?
Vultures can't be choosers.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
February 9th, 2018 at 12:14:08 PM permalink
A friend, who knows the NFL much better than me, thinks the Browns win six games next year.
I have $50 that says they win 4. Anyone want to offer odds?
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 11666
February 9th, 2018 at 12:24:58 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

A friend, who knows the NFL much better than me, thinks the Browns win six games next year.
I have $50 that says they win 4. Anyone want to offer odds?



Nope, but I’d like your friend’s number.

I’d have to do a binomial distribution to determine expected wins per season the last few years, Vegas-line dependent, but it’s definitely less than six. Four is probably right about there.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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