speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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January 14th, 2018 at 8:50:16 PM permalink
Would someone kind enough to post the odds please? Trying to put$50 and $50 on the game by tomorrow.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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January 14th, 2018 at 9:04:30 PM permalink
William Hill has them at -430 to go to SB and +105 to win SB. Nothing for AFC winning SB.

Westgate has them at -500 to go to SB, patriots at +100 to win SB, and -160 for AFC to win SB.

Stations has them at -500 to go to SB.

Any odds I didn't include were because the casino isn't offering bets on it, AFAICT.
speedycrap
speedycrap
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January 15th, 2018 at 2:13:46 AM permalink
Thanks.
TomG
TomG
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January 15th, 2018 at 2:09:42 PM permalink
AFC was -3 most everywhere before this weekend. Can't see anyway the quarterfinals games changed those odds much.

Pinnacle has the Patriots at -400 to beat Jacksonville.

80% / 60% on the Patriots / AFC odds seem about right

(With -500 elsewhere, the odds on the AFC champion has a vig of 0.6% doing nothing more than taking the best available -- quite a bit better than the usual 4.5%. Hard to believe anyone could do much worse than break even just doing that for all their bets)
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 15th, 2018 at 2:49:35 PM permalink
Wynn has the Pats at -425, meaning the Jags would have to win about one of 5 if they played 5 times for it to be a break even bet.

I can't see Bortles beating Brady 1 out of 5 times in a game like this.

Maybe 1 out of 12 times would seem about right to me.

It looks like a good bet to me. The spread is much trickier.

Maybe I'll eat a lot of chalk.

Take a plunge.

Hope I don't drown.



Also, a fair line according to the linked converter with a 9 point spread would be -545.

The deal on the moneyline favorite gets better as the payout gets smaller.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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January 15th, 2018 at 3:35:22 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Also, a fair line according to the linked converter with a 9 point spread would be -545.

The deal on the moneyline favorite gets better as the payout gets smaller.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/



-545 with a house edge, -417 with no edge. "Approximately"
DRich
DRich
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January 15th, 2018 at 3:45:21 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

AFC was -3 most everywhere before this weekend. Can't see anyway the quarterfinals games changed those odds much.



Westgate is showing AFC +3 now.
Order from chaos
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 19th, 2018 at 3:48:26 AM permalink
many stories out there that Brady has a hand injury. he skipped practice on Thursday and was seen wearing a glove on his throwing hand. spread has dropped to 7.5


https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/got-to-hand-it-to-tom-brady-and-patriots-they-know-how-to-keep-injury-under-wraps/2018/01/18/8a652b5a-fcae-11e7-8f66-2df0b94bb98a_story.html?utm_term=.53c5605f18c2
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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January 19th, 2018 at 4:04:49 AM permalink
Thanks but too.late. bet made and waiting to collect.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 19th, 2018 at 5:54:27 AM permalink
anybody who bet the Jags at +9 can get a pretty nice middle
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾

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