Most efficient way to bet reversion to mean (Favorites/Dogs)
December 5th, 2017 at 1:55:19 PM
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Favorite in NFL are well above historical parity with dogs for the season.
I saw a prop on this (multi chance parlay actually) and my gut tells me its super inefficient.
Would love an alternative way to recreate.
Current prop (multichance) is for all NFL games in a given week (excluding Thursday night), so 15 games.
Pick either 'All dogs, or All Favorites'
Must win 8 of 15, majority.
Push's count as losses.
Odds on the prop were -115.
I have to expect that winning 8 out of 15 (or 54%) does not equate to -115?
Aside from betting all games which would take significant there a better way to bet "hey- i think more dogs than favorites (or vice versa/over unders) will win this week"
How would one bet that?
Thanks in advance!
max
I saw a prop on this (multi chance parlay actually) and my gut tells me its super inefficient.
Would love an alternative way to recreate.
Current prop (multichance) is for all NFL games in a given week (excluding Thursday night), so 15 games.
Pick either 'All dogs, or All Favorites'
Must win 8 of 15, majority.
Push's count as losses.
Odds on the prop were -115.
I have to expect that winning 8 out of 15 (or 54%) does not equate to -115?
Aside from betting all games which would take significant there a better way to bet "hey- i think more dogs than favorites (or vice versa/over unders) will win this week"
How would one bet that?
Thanks in advance!
max
December 5th, 2017 at 9:06:14 PM
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115/215 = ~53.48%
I haven't heard of this before, although I may have just not seen or looked for it before. What card is this and which book offers it?
I haven't heard of this before, although I may have just not seen or looked for it before. What card is this and which book offers it?
December 5th, 2017 at 9:59:04 PM
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Actually you would have a 50% chance winning 8 or more if it were a 50% chance of winning/losing each game.
If that were the case the vig would be 6.5 % at -115. But since you lose ties, and there will be one about every other week, that significantly increases the vig. Though winning 8 of 15 is a 50% chance, winning 8 of 14 (due to a tie) is only a 39.5 % chance.
Incidentally underdogs do cover about 50% of the time, favorites 47%. Based on the Wizard’s 25 year analysis.
Putting $400 on this bet would be roughly equivalent to putting $100 on each of the 15 dogs, in terms of variance and absolute $ vig.
I like the concept of the bet but I’d never pay the vig. I think the vig on sports is one of the biggest ripoffs in gambling, all things considered.
If that were the case the vig would be 6.5 % at -115. But since you lose ties, and there will be one about every other week, that significantly increases the vig. Though winning 8 of 15 is a 50% chance, winning 8 of 14 (due to a tie) is only a 39.5 % chance.
Incidentally underdogs do cover about 50% of the time, favorites 47%. Based on the Wizard’s 25 year analysis.
Putting $400 on this bet would be roughly equivalent to putting $100 on each of the 15 dogs, in terms of variance and absolute $ vig.
I like the concept of the bet but I’d never pay the vig. I think the vig on sports is one of the biggest ripoffs in gambling, all things considered.
Last edited by: Ace2 on Dec 5, 2017
It’s all about making that GTA
December 6th, 2017 at 12:24:16 PM
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Just ran an actual calculation on this.
So betting all dogs at 50.05 % chance of win for each game, you have a 50.16% chance of winning the entire bet. House edge 6.23% at -115.
Betting all favorites with a 47.19 % chance of win for each game, you have a 41.24% chance of winning the entire bet. House edge 22.91% at -115.
So the best bet would be putting $400 on all dogs. Comparable to betting $100 on each game individually in terms of variance but lower total vig.
So betting all dogs at 50.05 % chance of win for each game, you have a 50.16% chance of winning the entire bet. House edge 6.23% at -115.
Betting all favorites with a 47.19 % chance of win for each game, you have a 41.24% chance of winning the entire bet. House edge 22.91% at -115.
So the best bet would be putting $400 on all dogs. Comparable to betting $100 on each game individually in terms of variance but lower total vig.
It’s all about making that GTA
