JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
• Posts: 467
November 3rd, 2017 at 10:52:42 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: JoelDeze

As always, thanks for posting. This week 1/3 of your picks you lay more than 11-10. So you probably need 9-6 to show a small profit. It seems you NEVER take better odds at the expense of points. You never find a money line underdog worth taking?

No problem and yes, that's a very good question. First, these are system picks. The system pick is based solely on probability of winning the game and not probability of covering a line. I have other algorithms in place to use for cover analysis. This means that if a system pick is +7.5 on the oddsmaker side, the system still believes it will win the game outright. Therefore, yes, I do wager on system underdogs. I usually do a 1u/0.5u on +ATS/+ML for that type of match-up. I may not post them and I may not even recommend them to others, but you asked the question so there's my answer.

I also believe that 2nd half wagers are the best way to make money wagering in College or Pro football. I may write a blog post on the subject.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
• Posts: 762
November 5th, 2017 at 7:01:47 AM permalink
6-9
-\$597.50

I do think it's important to note how far off you are from being successful: You bought points to get Fresno State to -13 -140, the line closed at -10 -110. This Joeldeze being a successful sports bettor is the biggest charade on the internet. BRING ON VEGAS DAVE!!!

Last 3 weeks:
15-27-1
\$-1,700
35% (I rounded up).

35% with many of these with points bought and laying more than -110.
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 18250
November 5th, 2017 at 7:49:48 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

6-9
-\$597.50

I do think it's important to note how far off you are from being successful: You bought points to get Fresno State to -13 -140, the line closed at -10 -110. This Joeldeze being a successful sports bettor is the biggest charade on the internet. BRING ON VEGAS DAVE!!!

Last 3 weeks:
15-27-1
\$-1,700
35% (I rounded up).

35% with many of these with points bought and laying more than -110.

I knew I could count on you to give me my weekly update on Joel's picks.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
• Posts: 185
November 7th, 2017 at 1:48:39 AM permalink
If one faded all his picks over the last year(s) what profits could a \$100 bettor have expected?
Wizardofnothing
Joined: Jul 3, 2015
• Posts: 3493
Thanks for this post from:
November 7th, 2017 at 3:25:52 AM permalink
Not sure but I’m crushing it with Vegas Dave’s picks
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
• Posts: 762
November 7th, 2017 at 6:01:01 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

If one faded all his picks over the last year(s) what profits could a \$100 bettor have expected?

I was fading his picks early last year when I realized he knew nothing about sports betting and projected Clemson to win by 50 points or something while the spread was less than a touchdown, and it was a one unit play. Moral of the story is I knew I had gold in front of me if I could get into the weekly habit of fading him.

And, for a few weeks I was making a little bit of money blindly fading his picks with small wagers. Then one weekend I kind of just forgot (it would've been another winning week) and I never got back into doing it.

A lot of people fail to understand the value of someone who's consistently on the wrong side of games like Joeldeze, is just as strong as the value of someone who's consistently on the right side of games. If you can find someone consistently giving you losing picks like this thread, you should be betting the other side.
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5490
November 7th, 2017 at 8:13:54 AM permalink
To play devils advocate... I'm sure if Joel was crushing it then we'd be hearing all about how it's a small sampling size and he's just getting lucky =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
• Posts: 762
November 7th, 2017 at 9:01:17 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

To play devils advocate... I'm sure if Joel was crushing it then we'd be hearing all about how it's a small sampling size and he's just getting lucky =).

When you play 20 games a week (which is a joke in itself that one's "system" have identified the oddsmakers off on 20 games) for a season and a half, that's not a small sample size.

The proof is in the pudding here.
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 18250
November 7th, 2017 at 9:37:07 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

To play devils advocate... I'm sure if Joel was crushing it then we'd be hearing all about how it's a small sampling size and he's just getting lucky =).

Nah, we would just focus on his past shenanigans and claim he has a different handle on a different site where he has different picks.

Assuming he has a bad year, will he...

A.) Tell us he has adjusted his algorithm.
B.) Tell us he made money with other bets and last minute changes.
C.) Tell us NFL is where he makes most of his money.
D.) It was a one-off crazy unpredictable year.
E.) All of the above including multiple other excuses.
F.) Remain silent for the most part in hopes we will all forget.

Bonus questions:
How many of his Voodoo dolls will he use on SM777?
What's a good O/U of how often SM777 will bump this thread?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
• Posts: 2233
November 7th, 2017 at 9:40:48 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Not sure but I’m crushing it with Vegas Dave’s picks

Ah yes. Crushing it. Hilarious. Don't they always. He's pretty well known all right. For ludicrous publicity stunts around nearly every sports event to promote himself and fleecing his pigeons with hoaxes so ridiculously transparent that it routinely leaves most people wondering "what kind of sucker could ever fall for THAT?" You could say "Vegas Dave" (David Oancea) is pretty much the famous poster child for... something.

Google: Vegas + Dave + scammer

But, if you'd really like to keep posting adverts for his scam-tout business here, then go right ahead, because there's an endless supply of sleazy scam accounts to post under each and every one of them until you run out of electrons and you wear your fingers to the bone (or the moderators inevitably get sick of it & say pay up for the continuing scam-ads or shut up). Since this is already about the third little advert I've seen in a thread I don't even follow much, here's the first little one of them (randomly plucked out among thousands) to start the counter-ads:

http://zwnation.com/vertically-challenged-vegas-dave-hits-a-new-low-by-suing-the-competition/
Quote:

<SNIP>

To recap, Atlanta lost the game but VD still claimed a \$2 million win due to a tangled web of “futures” and “proposition” bets.

Nothing Dave does has ever been independently verified and he is increasingly finding himself a target of other sports handicappers who are pointing out inconsistencies in his picks. Let’s be honest: in terms of integrity, the sports handicapping world is somewhere between porn and the music biz and yet many still feel VD is sullying the reputation of their industry. Sports betting is and always will be based on “smoke and mirrors” and “bait and switch” and yet Dave’s Trumpian flights of fancy rankle his peers.

<SNIP>