Resources to become a sharp sports bettor?

Hello, can my fellow forum members point me in the direction to some solid sports betting resources and articles/literature. I'm a newbie looking to become a sharp, primarily with MLB, then if all goes decent, look into NFL and NHL betting. I really don't know all that much about sharp sports betting other than parlays are generally a ploppy play, and there can be value in betting underdogs and totals on the under. I'm primarily a +EV video poker player, so I am familiar with basic gambling principles like variance, proper bet size to bankroll ratio, etc.

What I am most interested in is how the player/team/home game stats influence the lines and how to spot soft lines, and websites that can provide good statistical information.

Also: When it is better to bet the point spread vs. when to just take the moneyline

Quote: Dyvan13

Hello, can my fellow forum members point me in the direction to some solid sports betting resources and articles/literature. I'm a newbie looking to become a sharp, primarily with MLB, then if all goes decent, look into NFL and NHL betting. I really don't know all that much about sharp sports betting other than parlays are generally a ploppy play, and there can be value in betting underdogs and totals on the under. I'm primarily a +EV video poker player, so I am familiar with basic gambling principles like variance, proper bet size to bankroll ratio, etc.

What I am most interested in is how the player/team/home game stats influence the lines and how to spot soft lines, and websites that can provide good statistical information.

Also: When it is better to bet the point spread vs. when to just take the moneyline

You said the title a bunch of times....Sharp Sports Betting By Stanford Wong has a lot of good starting info

Quote: Dyvan13

Also: When it is better to bet the point spread vs. when to just take the moneyline

To add to your polite inquiry....may I ask you experts...

In football, NFL and NCAA...what is the money line equation? I looked but couldn't find it. Maybe I'm not a good researcher...I'm asking for example,

If a team is a 1 point favorite, what should be the money line?

Same on the key numbers of 3 and 7. Is there a straight line correlation between the money line and the point spread, or at least a general rule of thumb? Knowing this would allow us newbies to spot "soft" lines, assuming of course we know which is the soft of the two.

Thanks and good luck this year.

this is a money line to spread converter for the NBA, NFL, NCAAF and NCAAB. it was posted by a guy who went through 20 years of data to come up with it.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/

Handicapping and beating MLB money lines is probably the most difficult thing to do.

However a friend of mine wrote a well regarded book on handicapping. I've read it twice so far and it is excellent.

https://www.amazon.com/Sharper-Guide-Modern-Sports-Betting-ebook/dp/B01K5SDAKS

However, unlike my friend, I prefer to search for off market prices and focus on smaller markets. That's much easier.

Arnold Rothstein fixed the world series in 1916.
After that I don't think its been fixed.
So it would be like betting in a horse race that ain't fixed and who wants to do that.

I'd switch to soccer ... umpires get bribed there alot as to players.

Quote: lilredrooster

this is a money line to spread converter for the NBA, NFL, NCAAF and NCAAB. it was posted by a guy who went through 20 years of data to come up with it.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/

Got it, thanks. Exactly what I was hoping for and looking for.

Quote: Rigondeaux

Handicapping and beating MLB money lines is probably the most difficult thing to do.

However a friend of mine wrote a well regarded book on handicapping. I've read it twice so far and it is excellent.

https://www.amazon.com/Sharper-Guide-Modern-Sports-Betting-ebook/dp/B01K5SDAKS

However, unlike my friend, I prefer to search for off market prices and focus on smaller markets. That's much easier.

I read this book and can recommend it to anyone who understands basic sports betting but wants to learn more advanced stuff. No pictures tho.

There is one field of thought that almost no one can reliably beat the line on NFL games - there is just so much that is known and analyzed before each game, that the lines have become amazingly accurate.

There are some bettors who believe that the best opportunities to beat the line is to become expert on sports and events that don't get a lot of attention, because the lines that the books create are inevitably "less educated."
- for example, one group concentrated on over/under bets on college football involving teams that are not from the Big 5 conferences, like Tulane and Southern Miss and Nevada, etc. - They did massive amounts of research on these teams using internet resources (local newspapers, etc.) and then concentrated on making bets as soon as the sports books posted the opening line, before it could move.

Gordon is generally correct. I am a sharp. I could beat the books in a sport like the NFL, and I do short term (at times), but they limit action especially early in the week precisely in order to gather the market effect of efficiency. This means I just have a small edge here and there, in spot plays, week to week. These games are generally figured out at this point in the game.

Where I crush books are on the offered bets that aren't considered as much by the many and major players (essentially the major US sports). Obviously, non full game bets (that's all I'll say) are where it's at --- we even know our ROI on those long term.

But we're telling you something anyone with any sense already knows; the beatable bets offered are obviously those that are less visible, random, or have less volume all of which lend to greater inefficiency and thus greater exploitability.

Quote: Lando

the beatable bets offered are obviously those have less volume

correct me if i'm wrong but my understanding is that betting big on small games tips the books to the fact that they're dealing with a pro and they then try to mess with you in various ways.

Quote: lilredrooster

correct me if i'm wrong but my understanding is that betting big on small games tips the books to the fact that they're dealing with a pro and they then try to mess with you in various ways.

no, they may move the line after you make a large bet because they want wagers on both sides of the line - and if you have a pattern of doing that routinely then they may eventually consider you a "wise guy" and move the line depending upon how you bet because they respect your opinion.

The big sports books are not "afraid" of professional bettors -because it is very hard for anyone to beat the 10% vigorish. And if you are a professional, I would assume that you would spread your bets around anyway.

Quote: gordonm888

no, they may move the line after you make a large bet because they want wagers on both sides of the line - and if you have a pattern of doing that routinely then they may eventually consider you a "wise guy" and move the line depending upon how you bet because they respect your opinion.

The big sports books are not "afraid" of professional bettors -because it is very hard for anyone to beat the 10% vigorish. And if you are a professional, I would assume that you would spread your bets around anyway.

I don't agree with much of that, but it's a moot point for most, because of the last sentence.

Online books will limit and boot you for sure. Fairly unpredictably.

You don't have as much to worry about with Vegas books unless you are a pretty big bettor. However William Hill has booted a lot of people. Our own, Tom G was booted from the app. I know others who have been booted from the MGM app.

On the other hand, I know a guy who is a bet runner and he doesn't really hide it at all. He answers the phone and runs up to the counter and bets pretty decent amounts. He hasn't really had any problems.

If you are willing to go make the bets in person, and are not often betting 5k+ per game, you should be able to figure out how to do it.

Really, these kinds of things aren't what the OP should worry about. Something like 1% of sports bettors are winners. So there's your first hurdle.

Another good thing to read is the FAQ on sportsbetting at the 2+2 forums.

Also, just in case you are getting these ideas form RJ Bell, or "journalists" who facilitate conmen like Vegas Dave. When people start talking about "sharps" and "wiseguys" I get a little worried. So, here's the thread I made for these occasions.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/28176-are-pick-sellers-and-touts-legit/

imo the "handicappers think tank" at the sbr forum is a good resource. a lot of ideas get thrown around, not all of them are good. any bogus posts get shot down immediately. they also have a discussion forum for all the major sports including the NFL:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/