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4 members have voted
I'm curious because I figured the difference in odds would be worth a lot more, just figured with an educated guess form my readings they were worth a lot more).
Convert true odds to a percentage, then it becomes easy:
first example: 66% probability, getting even money, 33% advantage
second example: 66% probability, laying three to two, 17% advantage
third example: 69% probability, getting five to four, 55% advantage
you know what. i think you're right and that my first answer was wrong. i'm pretty sure i'm right this time.
so the -220 gives us implied odds of 68.75% lets say 69%.
so, if you bet $1 one hundred times you would win 69 times. 69*1.2 (the book's mistaken line) which equals $82.80. which is what you would get paid for your wins.
you would lose 31 times which means you would net $51.80.
you would have bet a total of $100 and subtracting the takeout of about $4.55 you would net about $47.25.
so in this situation your edge is about 47.25%.
i'm pretty sure that this is correct. sorry about the wrong info earlier. surely would be good to double check with Mike.
Bruh I already explained this in my first post...
I'm familiar with sports betting and I know how to bet/etc, but I'm not sure on the verbiage of what to say the -200 is... is that "points"... I know that -200 means you have to bet $200 to win $100, but if you were to assign a word to that -200... -200 "what?" Let's pretend the word is "points." So Team A is the favorite at -200 "points."
True Line is -200, I got my bet at -100... a difference of 100 "points"... Advantage = ?
True Line is -200, I got my bet at -150... a difference of 50 "points"... Advantage = ?
True Line is -220, I got my bet at +125... a difference of 145 "points"... Advantage = ?
At the end of the day I'm looking for a "points conversion" formula so that ANY bet based off the "points" difference you can calculate the percent advantage of the better bet.
Perhaps there's a local bookie (not friend, but big enough that he usually fleeces my friends and a bunch of other people) who takes up to moderate action and often has lines wrong on things he's not familiar with that I am (or can check online with a bunch of places to find the fair line)?Quote: TomG
You didn't answer the most important question: where is Romes finding these bets with 50% advantages?
Thanks Mike! Is this a formula for telling what advantage the favorite/dog are as the line stands? In this thread I think I've confused people the most by that... I'm saying, if 99 casinos have the line at -220, and 1 casino is WAY OFF at +120 and I get action at +120 when the fair line is -220 (so a difference from -220 to +120 of 140 "points/odds"), how do I calculate that advantage? Past that, I'm looking for a formula to do this with any "points/odds" difference... So say I have a bookie that doesn't know anything about MMA and he offers me -120 on a fighter I look up and know for a fact is -170... that's a 50 "points/odds" difference, where as in the first example it was a 140 "points/odds" difference between the two favorite lines. I'd like to be able to get X "points/odds" difference and know what the advantage is.Quote: Wizard
...The probability of winning is 2/3.
So, if you're getting even money your advantage is (2/3)*1 + (1/3)*-1 = +1/3.
At -150, you're winning 2/3 of a unit, so the advantage is (2/3)*(2/3) + (1/3)*-1 = +1/9
A +125, the advantage is (2/3)*1.25 + (1/3)*-1 = +1/2.
So, 100 points is 1/3 advantage
50 points is a 1/9 advantage
125 points is a 1/2 advantage
I think I'm going to have to use an "if" in a formula.
Let p be the points.
If the p <=100 then the advantage is ((2/3)*(100)-(1/3)*(200-p))/(200-p)
If p >=100 then the advantage is ((2/3)*p-(1/3)*100)/100...
Bold added. I think this was my disconnect before. I saw the 68.75% and was like, no that's the -220 but I'm getting it at +120 but you do account for that with the win. Thanks Tom, now I just need to rip that online calculator apart to try to see what the formula is for calculating the true odds and I'll program my own application to simply plug in the two lines (true -220 and offered +120) and spit back a percentage advantage.Quote: TomG
...If the true odds are -220 or 68.75% and the payout is $1.20 for every $1 risked, the edge is 51.25%
For a $100 bet you have a 68.75% (true odds of -220 to win) chance of winning $120 (+120 payout on $100), for a value of +$82.50. You also have a 31.25% chance of losing $100, for a value of -$31.25. Which equals an overall value of $51.25...