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Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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May 30th, 2017 at 2:27:02 PM permalink
So I've been curious for a bit of a while now and I've done some searching on this forum but it's a bit difficult because perhaps I'm not fluent in the verbiage. If you type in my "points" word I'll define below to google, obviously it'll go to team points/etc and not what I'm actually referring to.

So let's say I want to bet on a sports game with 2 teams.

Team A is the favorite (-200)
Team B is the dog (+200)

I'm familiar with sports betting and I know how to bet/etc, but I'm not sure on the verbiage of what to say the -200 is... is that "points"... I know that -200 means you have to bet $200 to win $100, but if you were to assign a word to that -200... -200 "what?" Let's pretend the word is "points." So Team A is the favorite at -200 "points."

So let's say I go to another sports book (checking around as the Wizard suggests) and I find the favorite at -100 "points" (and yes I know -100 is just EVEN MONEY but hey it'll make the math easy, okay?). If I believe the true line is indeed -200 (all other books have this -200 "points" as well) then how do you calculate the advantage based off the "point difference?"

EX
True Line is -200, I got my bet at -100... a difference of 100 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -200, I got my bet at -150... a difference of 50 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -220, I got my bet at +125... a difference of 145 "points"... Advantage = ?

At the end of the day I'm looking for a "points conversion" formula so that ANY bet based off the "points" difference you can calculate the percent advantage of the better bet.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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May 30th, 2017 at 4:01:11 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

EX
True Line is -200, I got my bet at -100... a difference of 100 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -200, I got my bet at -150... a difference of 50 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -220, I got my bet at +125... a difference of 145 "points"... Advantage = ?

At the end of the day I'm looking for a "points conversion" formula so that ANY bet based off the "points" difference you can calculate the percent advantage of the better bet.



Convert true odds to a percentage, then it becomes easy:

first example: 66% probability, getting even money, 33% advantage
second example: 66% probability, laying three to two, 17% advantage
third example: 69% probability, getting five to four, 55% advantage
michael99000
michael99000
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May 30th, 2017 at 4:04:23 PM permalink
The vig, the lay, the juice, the chalk , I've heard it referred to as all the above. Points is not a good word to use for it because that has another , totally different , meaning in sports betting. Vig actually may not apply here either because you are referring to money line bets and vig generally is used to refer to what a book charges on point spread wagers (-110, -108)

One mistake you made in your example , a game would never be -200 on the fav and +200 on the dog , more like -200 and +160.
RS
RS 
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May 30th, 2017 at 4:34:40 PM permalink
You gotta find the true and implied odds. Since you won't find bets at +200/-200 for the same game, and vig is added in, the sum odds will exceed 100%.

To make the math easy, let's say you have +150 and -200. -200 represents a 66% win rate (200/300). +150 represents a 40% win rate (100/250). The sum is 106.666%.

Remove the juice: 66.666/106.666 and 40/106.666 respectively. Gives you about 62.5% win rate for the favorite and the inverse (37.5%) for the dog.

From here, it's simple to figure out if you have an advantage on an "off" line. Multiply the payout by the chance to win and add that number to the amount you'd lose if your bet loses.

On a favorite, if you got -150, then you'd have -$150*0.375 + $100*0.625 = $6.25. So your value for $150 wager is $6.25. For an advantage of $6.25/150 = 4.166% edge.



Best thing to do is probably just make an Excel spreadsheet, insert all the proper formulas (you're a smart cookie, you can do it!), and badabingbadaboom, as the ancient hawaiians used to say.
"should of played 'Go Fish' today ya peasant" -typoontrav
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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May 30th, 2017 at 8:11:43 PM permalink
Those are the odds. Whether it is somone's estimate of "true" or "fair value" odds, or the odds line offered by the book, they are odds. If that isn't the word you're looking for, I have no idea what you're asking about.

ODDS CONVERTER

Quote: SBR Odds Converter


US Odds: -200
Decimal Odds: 1.5000
Fractional Odds: 1/2
Implied Probability: 66.67%

US Odds: +200
Decimal Odds: 3.0000
Fractional Odds: 2/1
Implied Probability: 33.33%


I think decimal odds are used in Europe. I've never seen them in connection with US wagering.
Nevermind.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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May 30th, 2017 at 8:40:59 PM permalink
Quote: Romes


EX
True Line is -200, I got my bet at -100... a difference of 100 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -200, I got my bet at -150... a difference of 50 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -220, I got my bet at +125... a difference of 145 "points"... Advantage = ?

At the end of the day I'm looking for a "points conversion" formula so that ANY bet based off the "points" difference you can calculate the percent advantage of the better bet.

This thinking is just wrong. "A difference of [insert any fixed number]..." represents a very different proportion depending on what other number you are comparing it to. An odds line of 150 compared to 200 is a significant difference in the probability required to break even (approximately 60% vs. 67%), while 625 compared to 675 is not so much at all (less than 14% vs. about 13%).

Do this, comparing implied probability of your hypothetical competing odds lines:

Quote: Odds Converter

EX#1) Odds:-200 = Implied Probability: 66.67%; vs. Odds: 100* = Implied Probability: 50.00%

EX#2) Odds:-200 = Implied Probability: 66.67%; vs. Odds: -150 = Implied Probability: 60.00%

EX#3) Odds:-220 = Implied Probability: 68.75%; vs. Odds: 125 = Implied Probability: 44.44%


*There is no such thing as "-100" in an 'American Odds' style line. That is an even money proposition, which is identical to +100, for which the " - " would have no meaning. Your #1 example is therefore not "a difference of 100..." it is actually "a difference of..." 200. And that is not a number with any real meaning, as again, this does NOT make a rational method of comparison without reference to the base (the denominator of an equation) to see how enormously large or trivially small of a difference it amounts to. Which is what the conversion to implied probability above just did.

EDIT:
Quote: RS

...

Or, what he said ^^
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 30, 2017
Nevermind.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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May 31st, 2017 at 11:48:16 AM permalink
Thanks for the feedback boys. Apparently I wasn't thinking of the percentages and wasn't sure if there was a straight "odds difference" to advantage conversion. I'll give this thread a re-read a few times, then probably make an excel sheet as RS suggested to try to track things.

Without getting in to detail, there's of course a reason I'm asking these questions, where it's not perhaps bets on games/etc... Some lines move a lot based on different information so quite often some things I'm betting will jump all around... Could go from -260 to +140, etc, so I was trying to figure an advantage of a 'sharp' getting in at the right time to figure the advantage difference between the two odds bets.

Quote: DrawingDead

...ODDS CONVERTER...

Thanks a ton for this converter... That will at least make it quite easy to get to the probabilities to combine with RS's suggestion.

p.s. None of you voted in the poll... =)
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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May 31st, 2017 at 9:09:46 PM permalink
Romes,

Odds don't go from -260 to +140 unless an ace pitcher went down just before game time. But you really just need to do an odds converter and bet anytime you think you have an edge. Many times people will bet dogs when they approach +200 or more since it's said that even an all triple AAA replacement team would win 1/3rd of the time according to sabermetrics. I typically will play dogs that pay +240 or more when they show up on the rarest of occasions. An MLB team can beat any other MLB team over 30% of the time regardless of matchup according to long term data even factoring in the games best teams/pitchers vs MLB worst teams.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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June 1st, 2017 at 8:16:51 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Romes,

Odds don't go from -260 to +140...

With bets I have/found, yes... yes they do. I've already been betting, and winning very consistently... I just was looking for a way to actually quantify my edge to more precisely evaluate my EV/etc. One of the better ones I've gotten was +130 to -260. Again, I don't know the actual % advantage I have (which is new for me when AP'ing things) but I sure as hell know that's got to be a pretty big advantage.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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June 1st, 2017 at 9:13:12 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

With bets I have/found, yes... yes they do. I've already been betting, and winning very consistently... I just was looking for a way to actually quantify my edge to more precisely evaluate my EV/etc. One of the better ones I've gotten was +130 to -260. Again, I don't know the actual % advantage I have (which is new for me when AP'ing things) but I sure as hell know that's got to be a pretty big advantage.



That would be after the game/match starts? aka "live betting"?

The Europe based gaming sites will express American sports in decimals on the money line.

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