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**5 members have voted**

So let's say I want to bet on a sports game with 2 teams.

Team A is the favorite (-200)

Team B is the dog (+200)

I'm familiar with sports betting and I know how to bet/etc, but I'm not sure on the verbiage of what to say the -200 is... is that "points"... I know that -200 means you have to bet $200 to win $100, but if you were to assign a word to that -200... -200 "what?" Let's pretend the word is "points." So Team A is the favorite at -200 "points."

So let's say I go to another sports book (checking around as the Wizard suggests) and I find the favorite at -100 "points" (and yes I know -100 is just EVEN MONEY but hey it'll make the math easy, okay?). If I believe the true line is indeed -200 (all other books have this -200 "points" as well) then how do you calculate the advantage based off the "point difference?"

EX

True Line is -200, I got my bet at -100... a difference of 100 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -200, I got my bet at -150... a difference of 50 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -220, I got my bet at +125... a difference of 145 "points"... Advantage = ?

At the end of the day I'm looking for a "points conversion" formula so that ANY bet based off the "points" difference you can calculate the percent advantage of the better bet.

Quote:RomesEX

True Line is -200, I got my bet at -100... a difference of 100 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -200, I got my bet at -150... a difference of 50 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -220, I got my bet at +125... a difference of 145 "points"... Advantage = ?

At the end of the day I'm looking for a "points conversion" formula so that ANY bet based off the "points" difference you can calculate the percent advantage of the better bet.

Convert true odds to a percentage, then it becomes easy:

first example: 66% probability, getting even money, 33% advantage

second example: 66% probability, laying three to two, 17% advantage

third example: 69% probability, getting five to four, 55% advantage

One mistake you made in your example , a game would never be -200 on the fav and +200 on the dog , more like -200 and +160.

To make the math easy, let's say you have +150 and -200. -200 represents a 66% win rate (200/300). +150 represents a 40% win rate (100/250). The sum is 106.666%.

Remove the juice: 66.666/106.666 and 40/106.666 respectively. Gives you about 62.5% win rate for the favorite and the inverse (37.5%) for the dog.

From here, it's simple to figure out if you have an advantage on an "off" line. Multiply the payout by the chance to win and add that number to the amount you'd lose if your bet loses.

On a favorite, if you got -150, then you'd have -$150*0.375 + $100*0.625 = $6.25. So your value for $150 wager is $6.25. For an advantage of $6.25/150 = 4.166% edge.

Best thing to do is probably just make an Excel spreadsheet, insert all the proper formulas (you're a smart cookie, you can do it!), and badabingbadaboom, as the ancient hawaiians used to say.

ODDS CONVERTER

Quote:SBR Odds Converter

US Odds: -200

Decimal Odds: 1.5000

Fractional Odds: 1/2

Implied Probability: 66.67%

US Odds: +200

Decimal Odds: 3.0000

Fractional Odds: 2/1

Implied Probability: 33.33%

I think decimal odds are used in Europe. I've never seen them in connection with US wagering.

This thinking is just wrong. "A difference of [insert any fixed number]..." represents a very different proportion depending on what other number you are comparing it to. An odds line of 150 compared to 200 is a significant difference in the probability required to break even (approximately 60% vs. 67%), while 625 compared to 675 is not so much at all (less than 14% vs. about 13%).Quote:Romes

EX

True Line is -200, I got my bet at -100... a difference of 100 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -200, I got my bet at -150... a difference of 50 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -220, I got my bet at +125... a difference of 145 "points"... Advantage = ?

At the end of the day I'm looking for a "points conversion" formula so that ANY bet based off the "points" difference you can calculate the percent advantage of the better bet.

Do this, comparing implied probability of your hypothetical competing odds lines:

Quote:Odds ConverterEX#1) Odds:-200 = Implied Probability: 66.67%; vs. Odds: 100* = Implied Probability: 50.00%

EX#2) Odds:-200 = Implied Probability: 66.67%; vs. Odds: -150 = Implied Probability: 60.00%

EX#3) Odds:-220 = Implied Probability: 68.75%; vs. Odds: 125 = Implied Probability: 44.44%

*There is no such thing as "-100" in an 'American Odds' style line. That is an even money proposition, which is identical to +100, for which the " - " would have no meaning. Your #1 example is therefore not "a difference of 100..." it is actually "a difference of..." 200. And that is not a number with any real meaning, as again, this does NOT make a rational method of comparison without reference to the base (the denominator of an equation) to see how enormously large or trivially small of a difference it amounts to. Which is what the conversion to implied probability above just did.

EDIT:

Or, what he said ^^Quote:RS...

Without getting in to detail, there's of course a reason I'm asking these questions, where it's not perhaps bets on games/etc... Some lines move a lot based on different information so quite often some things I'm betting will jump all around... Could go from -260 to +140, etc, so I was trying to figure an advantage of a 'sharp' getting in at the right time to figure the advantage difference between the two odds bets.

Thanks a ton for this converter... That will at least make it quite easy to get to the probabilities to combine with RS's suggestion.Quote:DrawingDead...ODDS CONVERTER...

p.s. None of you voted in the poll... =)

Odds don't go from -260 to +140 unless an ace pitcher went down just before game time. But you really just need to do an odds converter and bet anytime you think you have an edge. Many times people will bet dogs when they approach +200 or more since it's said that even an all triple AAA replacement team would win 1/3rd of the time according to sabermetrics. I typically will play dogs that pay +240 or more when they show up on the rarest of occasions. An MLB team can beat any other MLB team over 30% of the time regardless of matchup according to long term data even factoring in the games best teams/pitchers vs MLB worst teams.

With bets I have/found, yes... yes they do. I've already been betting, and winning very consistently... I just was looking for a way to actually quantify my edge to more precisely evaluate my EV/etc. One of the better ones I've gotten was +130 to -260. Again, I don't know the actual % advantage I have (which is new for me when AP'ing things) but I sure as hell know that's got to be a pretty big advantage.Quote:bazooookaRomes,

Odds don't go from -260 to +140...

Quote:RomesWith bets I have/found, yes... yes they do. I've already been betting, and winning very consistently... I just was looking for a way to actually quantify my edge to more precisely evaluate my EV/etc. One of the better ones I've gotten was +130 to -260. Again, I don't know the actual % advantage I have (which is new for me when AP'ing things) but I sure as hell know that's got to be a pretty big advantage.

That would be after the game/match starts? aka "live betting"?

The Europe based gaming sites will express American sports in decimals on the money line.

US Odds: Odds in US format (a negative number expresses the dollar amount that would need to be wagered in order to win $100, while a positive number expresses the dollar amount that would be won from a $100 wager)

Decimal Odds: Odds in decimal format (expresses the amount that would be returned from a $1 bet *inclusive* of original stake)

Fractional Odds: Odds in fractional format (expresses the fraction of a dollar that would be won from a $1 bet)

Implied Probability: The win probability that would imply zero vig on the offered line

you also might find the 2nd link helpful. this mathlete at sbr went through tons of data and provided a spread to money line converter but only for the nfl or nba or ncaaf or ncaab

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/odds-converter/

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/

if the book is offering live odds on baseball and you bet on a team at -130 before the game started and in the fifth inning they were up 3-1 and the book then offers their opponents at +260 you could take that bet and construct your bet in a way to guarantee that you would win when considering the 2 bets as one bet. it doesn't necessarily mean that you had an edge immediately before or after you made your first bet though.

I'm not referring to hedging either, with a way to "guarantee" some kind of winnings by betting both sides after a game starts and the lines change. What I'm referring to is basically the Wizards Half Point Parlay "idea" on steroids. So let's say the fare line of a game has the favorite at -220. I find a shop that's willing to book my action on the favorite at +120. That has got to be a substantial edge. I'm looking for a way to quantify how much of an edge I have given the shop booking +120 is way off the actual line of -220 that "everyone" else has.

Quote:RomesI'm not referring to hedging either, with a way to "guarantee" some kind of winnings by betting both sides after a game starts and the lines change. What I'm referring to is basically the Wizards Half Point Parlay "idea" on steroids. So let's say the fare line of a game has the favorite at -220. I find a shop that's willing to book my action on the favorite at +120. That has got to be a substantial edge. I'm looking for a way to quantify how much of an edge I have given the shop booking +120 is way off the actual line of -220 THAT EVERYONE ELSE HAS.

in the situation that you describe it sounds like the book offering the +120 has made a mistake. this happens sometimes. books will often refuse to pay when they catch the mistake which they usually do.

i.e. correlation/conversion of "points/odds/whatever you want to call them" to advantage.

Quote:RomesLet's pretend that... Exactly that... Say the book made a big mistake, but they honored all bets made at the lines they offered. How would I go about calculating my % advantage given the "fair line" set by 99 other books is -220 for the favorite, yet I got my bet on the favorite at +120? That's what I'm trying to get at. What would my advantage be if I got it at -120? I'm looking for a way to get from -220 to -120 (100 "odds/points/etc/etc" difference). So what's that 100 difference worth?

i.e. correlation/conversion of "points/odds/whatever you want to call them" to advantage.

my answer would be this according to the odds converter that i posted:

-220 implies a 68.75% chance team A will win - this is the correct implied odds not considering the takeout

+120 implies a 45.45% chance team A will win not considering the takeout

due to the mistake you gained 23.30% edge w/o considering the book takeout which is usually around 4.55% although often a little less on a big favorite on the money line

so your actual implied edge is about 18.75%

what often happens in this situation is some wiseguy sees the mistake and makes a huge bet and this tips the book off

So 140 = 18.75% is the correlation I'm looking to make.

Assuming the math is relative...

Points/Odds Different | Player Advantage |
---|---|

500 |
66.96% |

200 |
26.79% |

150 |
20.09% |

100 |
13.39% |

50 |
6.70% |

Does that make sound sense then?

For some reason on the half point parlays I thought him finding the spread at even just a half point difference was worth a lot. I'm curious because I figured the difference in odds would be worth a lot more (not that they're bad edges at all, just figured with an educated guess form my readings they were worth a lot more).

Quote:bazooookaRomes,

Odds don't go from -260 to +140 unless an ace pitcher went down just before game time. But you really just need to do an odds converter and bet anytime you think you have an edge. Many times people will bet dogs when they approach +200 or more since it's said that even an all triple AAA replacement team would win 1/3rd of the time according to sabermetrics. I typically will play dogs that pay +240 or more when they show up on the rarest of occasions. An MLB team can beat any other MLB team over 30% of the time regardless of matchup according to long term data even factoring in the games best teams/pitchers vs MLB worst teams.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.makeitsostudios.OddsCalc

...and there are probably at least several more, but that just happens to be one I have. Don't know that'll quite get you all the way to what you're after in how you're trying to think of your odds comparisons, but if you're doing this where an easily portable mobile calculation is better, including finding the break-even points (aka "implied odds" or what's listed above as "Win %") then there you are.

I don't know for sure that I'm on the same page with what you're thinking, but I agree with the general way of reasoning about it from Mr. Rooster in the discussion about how to think of comparative value in odds lines. That's how I think of it. "This line means I have to cash this ticket x% of the time, that one means y% is the break even point, I have reasons to think z% is the actual fair-value probability, and the difference, or the estimate of value for me, is therefore #1% - #2%."

Quote:Romes

I'm curious because I figured the difference in odds would be worth a lot more, just figured with an educated guess form my readings they were worth a lot more).

you know what. i think you're right and that my first answer was wrong. i'm pretty sure i'm right this time.

so the -220 gives us implied odds of 68.75% lets say 69%.

so, if you bet $1 one hundred times you would win 69 times. 69*1.2 (the book's mistaken line) which equals $82.80. which is what you would get paid for your wins.

you would lose 31 times which means you would net $51.80.

you would have bet a total of $100 and subtracting the takeout of about $4.55 you would net about $47.25.

so in this situation your edge is about 47.25%.

i'm pretty sure that this is correct. sorry about the wrong info earlier. surely would be good to double check with Mike.

Quote:TomG

Convert true odds to a percentage, then it becomes easy:

first example: 66% probability, getting even money, 33% advantage

second example: 66% probability, laying three to two, 17% advantage

third example: 69% probability, getting five to four, 55% advantage

I gave you the answers already, how are you all still getting this so wrong?

If the true odds are -220 or 68.75% and the payout is $1.20 for every $1 risked, the edge is 51.25%

For a $100 bet you have a 68.75% chance of winning $120, for a value of +$82.50. You also have a 31.25% chance of losing $100, for a value of -$31.25. Which equals an overall value of $51.25.

Someone must have a much more eloquent algebraic equation (there are online calculators for this sort of thing), but this method comes much more easily to me, so it's what I use.

Miscalculating probabilities is a definite question.

The real question, though, (and my reason for the correct answer a second time after everyone ignored it) is how and where is Romes finding these bets with 50% edges? (past-posting is my guess)

Another thing necessary to do is to compare estimated edge to actual results

Quote:lilredroosteryou know what. i think you're right and that my first answer was wrong. i'm pretty sure i'm right this time.

so the -220 gives us implied odds of 68.75% lets say 69%.

so, if you bet $1 one hundred times you would win 69 times. 69*1.2 (the book's mistaken line) which equals $82.80. which is what you would get paid for your wins.

you would lose 31 times which means you would net $51.80.

you would have bet a total of $100 and subtracting the takeout of about $4.55 you would net about $47.25.

so in this situation your edge is about 47.25%.

i'm pretty sure that this is correct. sorry about the wrong info earlier. surely would be good to double check with Mike.

Much better. Only error is that if -220 is in fact not the true odds, but true odds + a 4.55% commission, you need to take out the 4.55% first, then make your calculations:

0.6875 / 1.0455 = 65.75% probability. Then go from there.

The closer to 50%, the less that matters, but as you get bigger and bigger favorites, it could cause some pretty big errors in calculating an edge

Quote:RSBruh I already explained this in my first post...

You didn't answer the most important question: where is Romes finding these bets with 50% advantages?

Quote:RomesI'm familiar with sports betting and I know how to bet/etc, but I'm not sure on the verbiage of what to say the -200 is... is that "points"... I know that -200 means you have to bet $200 to win $100, but if you were to assign a word to that -200... -200 "what?" Let's pretend the word is "points." So Team A is the favorite at -200 "points."

First, let me say I oppose the American way of expressing odds and wish we go with the European model of showing what get back for one unit bet. I also oppose our units of measurement and favor going to the metric system. Fat chance of either thing happening in my lifetime.

To address you question, if forced, -200 means you have to bet $200 to win $100. If you take out the minus sign, which I interpret to not imply a negative number, but that you're laying odds, then it is how much you need to bet for a net win of $100.

While we're complaining about notation, why is there no term for a simple bet against the spread? Please don't say it is a "straight bet." That can be any wager on a single outcome (as opposed to a parlay or teaser).

Quote:

EX

True Line is -200, I got my bet at -100... a difference of 100 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -200, I got my bet at -150... a difference of 50 "points"... Advantage = ?

True Line is -220, I got my bet at +125... a difference of 145 "points"... Advantage = ?

At the end of the day I'm looking for a "points conversion" formula so that ANY bet based off the "points" difference you can calculate the percent advantage of the better bet.

The probability of winning is 2/3.

So, if you're getting even money your advantage is (2/3)*1 + (1/3)*-1 = +1/3.

At -150, you're winning 2/3 of a unit, so the advantage is (2/3)*(2/3) + (1/3)*-1 = +1/9

A +125, the advantage is (2/3)*1.25 + (1/3)*-1 = +1/2.

So, 100 points is 1/3 advantage

50 points is a 1/9 advantage

125 points is a 1/2 advantage

I think I'm going to have to use an "if" in a formula.

Let p be the points.

If the p <=100 then the advantage is ((2/3)*(100)-(1/3)*(200-p))/(200-p)

If p >=100 then the advantage is ((2/3)*p-(1/3)*100)/100

Personally, I don't memorize such formulas but figure it out my scratch.

Perhaps there's a local bookie (not friend, but big enough that he usually fleeces my friends and a bunch of other people) who takes up to moderate action and often has lines wrong on things he's not familiar with that I am (or can check online with a bunch of places to find the fair line)?Quote:TomGYou didn't answer the most important question: where is Romes finding these bets with 50% advantages?

Also Tom, I definitely am keeping your answer and reviewing it with different scenarios. Just simply explaining to new people exactly what I'm looking for. I definitely did not brush it off in any means and am grateful for your response.

Thanks Mike! Is this a formula for telling what advantage the favorite/dog are as the line stands? In this thread I think I've confused people the most by that... I'm saying, if 99 casinos have the line at -220, and 1 casino is WAY OFF at +120 and I get action at +120 when the fair line is -220 (so a difference from -220 to +120 of 140 "points/odds"), how do I calculate that advantage? Past that, I'm looking for a formula to do this with any "points/odds" difference... So say I have a bookie that doesn't know anything about MMA and he offers me -120 on a fighter I look up and know for a fact is -170... that's a 50 "points/odds" difference, where as in the first example it was a 140 "points/odds" difference between the two favorite lines. I'd like to be able to get X "points/odds" difference and know what the advantage is.Quote:Wizard...The probability of winning is 2/3.

So, if you're getting even money your advantage is (2/3)*1 + (1/3)*-1 = +1/3.

At -150, you're winning 2/3 of a unit, so the advantage is (2/3)*(2/3) + (1/3)*-1 = +1/9

A +125, the advantage is (2/3)*1.25 + (1/3)*-1 = +1/2.

So, 100 points is 1/3 advantage

50 points is a 1/9 advantage

125 points is a 1/2 advantage

I think I'm going to have to use an "if" in a formula.

Let p be the points.

If the p <=100 then the advantage is ((2/3)*(100)-(1/3)*(200-p))/(200-p)

If p >=100 then the advantage is ((2/3)*p-(1/3)*100)/100...

You might have answered my question, but for some reason with sports the verbiage seems to confuse me a bit. I apologize for any ambiguity.

Bold added. I think this was my disconnect before. I saw the 68.75% and was like, no that's the -220 but I'm getting it at +120 but you do account for that with the win. Thanks Tom, now I just need to rip that online calculator apart to try to see what the formula is for calculating the true odds and I'll program my own application to simply plug in the two lines (true -220 and offered +120) and spit back a percentage advantage.Quote:TomG...If the true odds are -220 or 68.75% and the payout is $1.20 for every $1 risked, the edge is 51.25%

For a $100 bet you have a 68.75% (true odds of -220 to win) chance of winning $120 (+120 payout on $100), for a value of +$82.50. You also have a 31.25% chance of losing $100, for a value of -$31.25. Which equals an overall value of $51.25...

What I was looking for I think doesn't exist (or isn't possible) which is my confusion. I was looking for a formula to take the DIFFERENCE between the odds and get an advantage, but I think you "must" know the actual line. Thus, -300 and -250 is a 50 "point/odds" difference... but the advantage won't be the same as a -150 and EVEN MONEY 50 "points/odds" difference. Let's do the math to double check =P.

-300 gives a 75% chance of winning, but I got the line at -250 for a payback on $100 of $40. Thus:

75% chance of winning $40 for an EV of $30

25% chance of losing $100 for an EV of -$25

Overall value of $5, on my $100 bet for a total Player Advantage of 5%.

-150 gives a 66% chance of winning, but I got the line at EVEN MONEY for a payback on $100 of $100. Thus:

66% chance of winning $100 for an EV of $66

34% chance of losing $100 for an EV of -$34

Overall value of $22, on my $100 bet for a total Player Advantage of 22%.

So in both cases there was a 50 "points/odds" difference, but the advantage is VASTLY different... and it appears correct that the 50 "points/odds" difference makes more of an impact the closer the line is to even money.

You probably already know this, but you should feed that bookie some square action as well. Just bet random NBA sides and bet the otherside elsewhere. Look for spots where you a taking little to no juice on your coinflip. With any luck, you'll actually be losing money to this guy.

Here is a no vig calculator to take care of that step.

http://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/

Someties the units you are referring to are described in dollars and cents. -200, - $2.00 +120, plus a dollar twenty. The line moved thirty cents, etc.

However, 50 points doesn't mean much once your talking +250 or more. I think 50 points is big when the implied offs are around 50/50 give or take a few points. It's easy to find +300 vs +250 when line/agent shopping. But near impossible to find -120 vs -170.

**For those that really want to see how some of the MAJOR betting collectives do this and win: They even have to lose at times not to get singled out as an +EV bettor.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/content/diamonds-on-the-line-profits-through-investment-gaming/

"""

>>>

So, 100 points is 1/3 advantage

50 points is a 1/9 advantage

125 points is a 1/2 advantage

>>>

Let p be the points.

If the p <=100 then the advantage is ((2/3)*(100)-(1/3)*(200-p))/(200-p)

If p >=100 then the advantage is ((2/3)*p-(1/3)*100)/100

"""

Quote:RomesSo say I have a bookie that doesn't know anything about MMA and he offers me -120 on a fighter I look up and know for a fact is -170... that's a 50 "points/odds" difference, where as in the first example it was a 140 "points/odds" difference between the two favorite lines. I'd like to be able to get X "points/odds" difference and know what the advantage is.

You might have answered my question, but for some reason with sports the verbiage seems to confuse me a bit. I apologize for any ambiguity.