Advanced Handicapping Thoroughbred Picks Thread

Going to be posting some my picks for a random track here every day (Wed-Sun). I will be posting a few other tracks website ttp://www.advancedhandicapping.com/
on the same days. I usually wheel a top pick with the next 3 horses, or just bet the W/P/S


Here is todays picks from Pimlico 5/19/2017
Race#1
5-2-4-3-7
Race#2
1-5-6-7-3
Race#3
3-5-7-4-2
Race#4
2-4-10-9-5
Race#5
4-3-6-1-5
Race#6
7-1-6-12-8
Race#7
6-5-3-1-2
Race#8
3-5-11-10-12
Race#9
11-6-1-2-5

Are we allowed to post our picks here too, or is this just for you?

You can post them here I don't mind

Quote: troopscott

Going to be posting some my picks for a random track here every day (Wed-Sun). I will be posting a few other tracks website ttp://www.advancedhandicapping.com/
on the same days. I usually wheel a top pick with the next 3 horses, or just bet the W/P/S


Here is todays picks from Pimlico 5/19/2017
Race#1
5-2-4-3-7
Race#2
1-5-6-7-3
Race#3
3-5-7-4-2
Race#4
2-4-10-9-5
Race#5
4-3-6-1-5
Race#6
7-1-6-12-8
Race#7
6-5-3-1-2
Race#8
3-5-11-10-12
Race#9
11-6-1-2-5

Race 1 second choice won, exacta trifecta and superfecta from top 4 horses
The way I play I hit the exacta
wps lost
5,2 w/5,2,3,4 ($48.80)
I did hit the trifecta as well but only because I thought the 6-1 had a good chance to win and wheeled it 5,2 w/ 5,2,3,4 Added In an extra $6 to my bet but paid $133.9

Race 2 first pick winner paid $10.40
WPS paid 18.40
exacta wheel as I play 1,5 w/ 1,5,6,7 paid 59.20
Daily double if played paid $74.60
trifecta paid 140.80
Superfecta paid 167.20 wheeling 1 w/5,6,7 (top 4 picks)

Race3
First pick winner paid 10.80
wps returned $20
.50 pick 3 paid $86.25
daily double paid $58.80

Race4
3nd choice winner paid $17.60
wps paid 4.50 (-1.50)

Race5
1st pick winner (chalk)
WPS paid $9.20
exacta wheel paid 13
tri wheel paid $24.80

Race #6
4th pick winner paid 15.60

Race 7
1st pick winner (heavy chalk)
wps paid 7.10
exacta wheel paid 11.40

Race 8
3rd choice winner paid 9.60

Race#9
2nd choice winner paid 15.50
wps paid 0
exacta wheel paid 53.60
tri wheel paid 595.60 (I played this as above 11,6 w/ 11,6,2,5) because of liking long horses worth the extra bet when I pick long horses in the top 4


so a $2 win bet on each race would have returned $28.20 for your $16 bet a 1.675 return on your investment
ex wheel would have paid 186 for a 108 investment
my tri bets vary based on odds of horses so those are harder to track but today at Pimlico was profitable and had a win% of top pick winners (4 of 9) of 44.4%

Todays track here will be Churchill Downs
at AdvancedHandicapping.com will be Pimlico, Charles Town, Belmont
to cover again the way I play these mostly is in wheels
exacta wheel 1st and 2nd pick with 1,2,3,4th picks so 1,2 w/ 1,2,3,4
tris I take the top pick and wheel the next 3 under those sometimes if there are long horses I will play the first two picks on top 1 w2,3,4 w 2,3,4 or

Race 1
1-3-2-5-6
Race2
4-5-2-1-6
Race 3
5-6-7-4-1
Race 4
2-5-6-3-4
race 5
6-1-2-5-4
race 6
2-1-3-6-5
race7
6-2-1A-7-5
Race 8
5-4-6-7-2
Race9
15-11-2-4-7-1-16
Race 10
7-5-1-4-6

Quote: your website

Race#13
4-5-2-6-9-3-19-7-1-8
I am looking for value here and my WPS bet will be the 2 horse

I didn't go into the race thinking so deep due to cost, but my top 5 were identical except was 2-6-9-5-4. Two was tops, but didn't differentiate just because it was a small ticket. Didn't check your site beforehand, but did just now after the race. Numbers on a list are useless to me generally unless you defend your horses with text, explaining your thought process. This helps me to either agree or disagree, make an audible possibly.

Explain why Conquest Mo Money was nowhere on your list. That could have very easily been a major mistake. I'd be interested in knowing why Always Dreaming was number one.

I find it interesting that you call this advanced handicapping.I will look at 30 to 50 races a day and maybe come up with three decent plays yet you make picks in every race on the card. Surely you couldn't put the same amount of money equally in every race?????

Thanks for posting. Please go into any detail in methodology that you are comfortable sharing, horse racing is probably one of the least discussed topics here.

Sorry for the delay responding ended up having to take my daughter to the hospital yesterday for a bad respitory infection. She has a rare genetic disorder that besides other things weakens her immune system.

I am Not saying I bet every race but I bet quite a few. I handicap my own way pretty much every day except Monday and Tuesday. Some days I bet more money and races than others.

I look at a whole host of things again before each race at the track. (after I handicap the day before) What you see here is my game plan going in if I bet the race. Does not mean I make every bet but it is what I like in each race for whatever reason. Preakness for example I knew Always dreaming would be short based off of his derby win. I also felt he would bounce (and he did) but you can not throw him out. I did end up betting the two on top of my exactas and tris (along with always dreaming) which I hit because I played a couple different 4 horse wheels (1/2,3,4,5) That is why I told you guys I liked the two and wanted the value.

I do not actually like to bet favorites but sometimes that is just the way it is. Churchill which was posted here I believe I had the first 5 or 6 races picked correctly but all were favorite or second favorite and not a lot of money made. I actually skipped a couple because there was no value.

Days like yesterday at Preakness and Derby Day (no triple crown chance so Belmont will not have as much pool money now) I always bet more because there is a lot of dead money in the pools to catch. Payoffs are always higher even if you are betting the chalk.

I budget $18 a race times 5 tracks daily 45 races avg. I actually take 1k with me but I look to bet no more than $18 each race. Usually I end up betting about 30% with the full $18 (10-15) or more, and the others I usually make a WPS or a WS wager and skip the exotics or in some cases skip the WPS and play just an exotic or skip entirely. An example was race 1 at Churchill no way was the risk worth it to bet a heavy favorite like that. Nothing was going to pay. Skipped it. Played extra in Race #9 because I really liked the 11 horse with the 15 scratched. Felt he was a lock. Didn't care much for the 1 who was listed in the picks only because I was not sure who would go and who would not in that big field with several AE. If earlier listed horses scratched he moved up. Expected scratches. Was not any. I hit the WPS bet tripled up ($6WPS) hit the exacta doubled up missed the tri with the $1 wheel ($6)

I do let the odds play into my final bets at the track or online wherever I am betting.

As for the term advanced handicapping being used that happened to be the domain I used to throw the very cheap site together after someone in my Derby said about posting picks. You may not consider my selections advanced which is fine. You have to handicap every race to find the best to bet and I am sharing all of that with people here to aid in what they are betting as well

Quote: ontariodealer

I find it interesting that you call this advanced handicapping.I will look at 30 to 50 races a day and maybe come up with three decent plays yet you make picks in every race on the card. Surely you couldn't put the same amount of money equally in every race?????

I would guess this is possibly a tout pumping their website on WOV.

I love horseracing and betting on it occasionally. I am glad to see these topics/discussions on the site.

I am not touting anything. I was the only one who posted anything other than a derby futures thread.

Someone suggested I do it because there is nobody posting so I did. That is a free website no service.

Appreciate the comments

Quote: troopscott

I am not touting anything. I was the only one who posted anything other than a derby futures thread.

Someone suggested I do it because there is nobody posting so I did. That is a free website no service.

Appreciate the comments

If this is the only site/forum (other than the AH site) you are posting "picks", I humbly apologize.

I accept your apology. I am not posting them anywhere else nor will I. I did this based off of the Derby thread I started. Bought that domain and website off ebay for $20.

Reason why I did it is actually I want ro try and keep track of some stats I have not really kept in the past for long stretches and this almost forces me to do it.

Quote: troopscott

I accept your apology. I am not posting them anywhere else nor will I. I did this based off of the Derby thread I started. Bought that domain and website off ebay for $20.

Reason why I did it is actually I want ro try and keep track of some stats I have not really kept in the past for long stretches and this almost forces me to do it.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=5295964&registry=Q

Best wishes,
Keeneone

Interesting, we share some of the same ideas...I also always look to beat the favorite and thought the 4 was a big bounce candidate also.....I play the supers at indiana downs heavily and 95% of my action goes in maiden, n2l and grass races.