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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
July 5th, 2017 at 9:22:32 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Yankees -180 DogFlips
 Athletics -180 DogFlips
 Nationals 100
 Braves 115 Focus
 Rangers -105 Focus
 Angels 165 Focus
 Cardinals -145 DogFlips
 Rockies -145 DogFlips
 Mariners -125 Focus
 Dodgers -213 DogFlips
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 182
July 7th, 2017 at 9:13:00 PM permalink
To those who PM'd me and asked me why I like run lines (and alt lines),

Example,

Take a look at the junky Giants. Had you just faded them all year you'd be up about 15% on your bankroll and won 60% of the games or so.

However, if you faded them and taken chalk run lines you'd still have won half the games and you would have gotten down around +150 on those fades or more.

The +150 picks you up another 60 points of juice over the typical -110; heck sometimes you get 100 points extra points on the runline. The runline play only costs us 13 runline covers (out of 41) when the Giants lost a 1 run game.

The -$1300 cost (in lost covers) plus {60 extra juice points X 41 winning -1.5 games (ie 2460) } = $1160 more in profit be using runline

***This is additional profit over fading the Giants which already was up 16 units.***

Times by 7 for Steel's way of play and you get near 8K more.

****That's why I play your chalk picks with run lines (or play your dogs on the alt). The "lines" make chalk winner lucrative and upsets extra juiced.

Ps...the Giants lost about 12 wins of their 34 moneyline wins if you bet them to win by -1.5. However those lines often went off around +200 or more when Giants were the dog (often they are the dog) thus easy to see why the extra juice can makes up for moneyline losses if you pick your alt spots. A moneyline pro Giants player would have been crushed. I have never seen anyone beat moneylines long term. But the book's cappers often leave small edges in run lines and alts for those who can come up with algos.

http://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=team%20%3D%20Giants%20and%20season%20%3D%202017&output=summary
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jul 7, 2017

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