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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 23rd, 2017 at 8:42:46 AM permalink
I am crying uncle and limiting my future 7x's, or more (thinking about it), on the +130dogs only.

Today's Picks:
 Rangers 108
 Indians -180 DogFlips
 Red Sox -170 DogFlips
 Rays -190 DogFlips
 Marlins 113
 Braves -104
 White Sox -102
 Blue Jays -140 DogFlips
 Astros 110
 Padres 105
 Mets 115
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
June 23rd, 2017 at 11:50:48 AM permalink
For those who have asked me about "alt" lines.

Lately they have posting earlier. Normally by 10am PST. You might want to consider all the ones at +235 or more. If you can hit 3 out of 10 (or better) you will PROFIT. If your "dog" algo already likes the matchup then it will like the "alt" since 1 run margins are near random and only have affected around 15% of my plays. Could be the rabbit ball this year. Heck; I take a look at all "alts" above +180 which correlates highly with your +130 dogs.

**Rockies today at +320 looks like a good punt. Hit these types 1 out of 4 and still make good profit. Rockies are solid team and their pitcher, arguably, has a better career than Dodger's Wood to date. Sure Wood is 7-0 but never was an ace before thus I'll fade Wood today since the line is inflated. Lines reflects the recent rather than the normalized. Yes,dodgers likely will win today but really it'd be closer to 65/35 if this matchup was played 100 times. Make these types of "alt" bets 100 times and you will hit enough to overcome the vig. Think long term.



Jun 23 6901 CIN 1½ RL -1½+345
7:05 PM 6902 WAS 1½ RL +1½-445
Jun 23 6903 CHC 1½ RL +1½-245
7:10 PM 6904 MIA 1½ RL -1½+195
Jun 23 6905 MIL 1½ RL +1½-220
7:35 PM 6906 ATL 1½ RL -1½+170
Jun 23 6907 PIT 1½ RL -1½+165
8:15 PM 6908 STL 1½ RL +1½-210
Jun 23 6909 PHI 1½ RL -1½+265
9:40 PM 6910 ARI 1½ RL +1½-335
Jun 23 6911 COL 1½ RL -1½+320
10:10 PM 6912 LAD 1½ RL +1½-420
Jun 23 6913 NYM 1½ RL -1½+170
10:15 PM 6914 SFO 1½ RL +1½-220
Jun 23 6915 TEX 1½ RL -1½+160
7:05 PM 6916 NYY 1½ RL +1½-200
Jun 23 6917 BAL 1½ RL -1½+270
7:10 PM 6918 TAM 1½ RL +1½-350
Jun 23 6919 LAA 1½ RL -1½+220
7:10 PM 6920 BOS 1½ RL +1½-280
Jun 23 6921 MIN 1½ RL -1½+240
7:10 PM 6922 CLE 1½ RL +1½-300
Jun 23 6923 OAK 1½ RL +1½-210
8:10 PM 6924 CWS 1½ RL -1½+165
Jun 23 6925 TOR 1½ RL +1½-290
8:15 PM 6926 KAN 1½ RL -1½+230
Jun 23 6927 HOU 1½ RL -1½+165
10:10 PM 6928 SEA 1½ RL +1½-210
Jun 23 6929 DET 1½ RL +1½-250
10:10 PM 6930 SDG 1½ RL -1½+200



Quote: steeldco

I am crying uncle and limiting my future 7x's, or more (thinking about it), on the +130dogs only.

Today's Picks:
 Rangers 108
 Indians -180 DogFlips
 Red Sox -170 DogFlips
 Rays -190 DogFlips
 Marlins 113
 Braves -104
 White Sox -102
 Blue Jays -140 DogFlips
 Astros 110
 Padres 105
 Mets 115

Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 23, 2017
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8544
June 23rd, 2017 at 7:35:03 PM permalink
Not to put vinegar in the wound, as they say....but what would have happened if you had continued betting the 130 dogs instead of the dogflips? (I'm assuming dogflips are opposite of 130 dogs?) Have you or someone else been keeping the records on that?
# Свободный Натан
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 24th, 2017 at 6:31:01 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Rangers -100
 Indians -180
 Red Sox +100
 Rays +100
 Marlins +100
 Braves +100
 White Sox -102
 Blue Jays -140
 Astros -100
 Padres +105
 Mets +115

Yesterday's results: -2
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +118
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -120

YTD Total -30,202
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,676
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,651
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,506
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 24th, 2017 at 6:47:31 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Not to put vinegar in the wound, as they say....but what would have happened if you had continued betting the 130 dogs instead of the dogflips? (I'm assuming dogflips are opposite of 130 dogs?) Have you or someone else been keeping the records on that?



RS, not having flipped the +130dogs would have produced a gain of +6,776. All of the gains, and consequently all of the losses on the dogflips, occurred during the first 5 days after having made the change. Since the flips have been OK in the past, I would think that I need to better refine the date on which I make the change to dogflips. Just a continual learning process in addition to sheer stupidity on my part in playing the dogflips at 7X's.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 24th, 2017 at 7:32:24 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Royals -102 Focus
 Nationals -155 DogFlips
 Twins 210 Focus
 Brewers -104
 Rays -153 DogFlips
 Mets -102
 Red Sox -175 DogFlips
 Astros -150 DogFlips
 Diamondbacks -210 DogFlips
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
June 24th, 2017 at 3:49:48 PM permalink
The logic behind dog flip is solid in that it wont hit 40% on dogs as Summer progresses. Reversion to the mean and the Vegas odds makers learning curve ensures this. Playing +130 for the whole season will indeed slip. But the answer isn't dog flips. The answer has always been "alts" which is essentially is +130 dogs with juice. Only now needing to hit on the alt 75% of the time (which they have). As much energy many put in to sniff out upsets; monetize that. If one goes back and looks they will see around 75% of all your winning +130 hit on the alt and you would have averaged around +190 on those winners.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 25th, 2017 at 7:27:13 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Royals +100
 Nationals +100
 Twins +210
 Brewers -104
 Rays -153
 Mets +100
 Red Sox +100
 Astros +100
 Diamondbacks +100

Yesterday's results: 553
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -4
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +310
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +247

YTD Total -29,649
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,680
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,341
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,259
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 25th, 2017 at 7:35:10 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Twins 142 Focus
 Rays -154 DogFlips
 Marlins 111
 Nationals -142 DogFlips
 White Sox 116
 Royals 100 Focus
 Diamondbacks -200 DogFlips
 Padres 100 Focus
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 26th, 2017 at 5:21:45 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Twins +142
 Rays -154
 Marlins +111
 Nationals -142
 White Sox -100
 Royals -100
 Diamondbacks +100
 Padres -100

Yesterday's results: -243
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +11
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -58
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -196

YTD Total -29,892
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,669
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,399
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,455
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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