Thread Rating:

bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
May 30th, 2017 at 5:06:44 PM permalink
If you use multiple sites you can find almost every game. Also some sites don't post the alt lines until closer till first pitch. But normally an hour or two before first pitch the "alt" lines will be posted. And if you find ones near +300 realize that even a team of all triple A replacement players would be expected to win around 45-50 MLB games (give or take) just because of the variance in baseball. And normally you won't find a team below 68 wins; .ie .good assumption that most (near all) teams can win 40-45% of their games even the terrible ones.


Quote: steeldco

TomG, I very much appreciate the commentary. I have been told of a site that can be used and that is 5Dimes. To me, and maybe its just my ignorance in this area, I had an awfully difficult time finding someone who posted alt run lines on every game.

TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 1941
May 31st, 2017 at 5:01:00 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

TomG, I very much appreciate the commentary. I have been told of a site that can be used and that is 5Dimes. To me, and maybe its just my ignorance in this area, I had an awfully difficult time finding someone who posted alt run lines on every game.



The lines you were quoting were 5dimes were for -2.5. If you're getting those numbers for -1.5 and you keep betting them they will limit your account to $5 max on them and all other prop bets. Until that happens, bet them for as much as you can. Hiding them in parlays will give you more time. 5dimes will pay.

Pinnacle has them on their drop down menu. The Greek and William Hill both have them. Shouldn't be too hard to find another place to play them at.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8623
May 31st, 2017 at 5:32:34 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

If you use multiple sites you can find almost every game. Also some sites don't post the alt lines until closer till first pitch. But normally an hour or two before first pitch the "alt" lines will be posted. And if you find ones near +300 realize that even a team of all triple A replacement players would be expected to win around 45-50 MLB games (give or take) just because of the variance in baseball. And normally you won't find a team below 68 wins; .ie .good assumption that most (near all) teams can win 40-45% of their games even the terrible ones.


I agree to an extent, although I'm not particularly sure what you're saying.

Just because a team or set of players has a 40% win rate over an entire season, where they play against a range of very bad to very good teams.....that doesn't mean they always have a 40% probability to win any game (assuming same set of players and all that)....they might have a 50-55% winrate against the poor teams and a 30% winrate against the good teams. So even though the average may be 40% (or whatever such number), it doesn't mean you can apply that number to every game those players play.

There's also going to be less variance in the outcome between a terrible team and a good team. Also, I'd have to do some more thinking on this variance aspect, but right now I'm leaning more towards "the odds are the odds", and positive or negative variance evens it out in the end.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 31st, 2017 at 6:01:21 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

The lines you were quoting were 5dimes were for -2.5. If you're getting those numbers for -1.5 and you keep betting them they will limit your account to $5 max on them and all other prop bets. Until that happens, bet them for as much as you can. Hiding them in parlays will give you more time. 5dimes will pay.

Pinnacle has them on their drop down menu. The Greek and William Hill both have them. Shouldn't be too hard to find another place to play them at.



TomG, I'm sorry but I think that you may have misunderstood. I will begin using 5Dimes today, if they produce lines early enough. I wasn't using them previously.

Also, if lines aren't published early then this test of bazooooka's thesis, by me, will probably drop off my task list to publish. I may play some or all if I find a reputable site for them, but I do not plan on making this a full time job by checking lines all day and then publishing. I have other interests.

Again TomG, I appreciate the help and commentary.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 31st, 2017 at 6:11:56 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Diamondbacks 700
 Reds -700
 Mariners 910
 Rangers 100
 Astros 103
 Royals 910
 Nationals 113

Yesterday's results: +2,136
+130dogs +1,120
Other dogs +113
Favorites +100
Focus Picks +803
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -16,162
+130dogs +370
Other dogs -364
Favorites -603
Focus Picks -12,808
FocusFlips -2,757

Bazooooka's Alt Run Line Picks: +700
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 31st, 2017 at 6:33:29 AM permalink
OK. No alt. run lines were available at 5 Dimes. Bazooooka, I would suggest that if you would like to follow these, then feel free to publish the picks and lines here. I won't be doing it.

Today's Picks:
 Reds 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 135 +130Dogs 1X's
 Twins 110 Focus 7X's
 Athletics 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Orioles -102
 Brewers 170 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rangers 120
 White Sox 145 +130Dogs 7X's
 Dodgers 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rockies 166 +130Dogs 7X's
 Giants 160 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Shootress
Shootress
Joined: Jul 29, 2016
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 20
May 31st, 2017 at 9:35:36 AM permalink
Great day yesterday! Thanks Steel!
!
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8623
May 31st, 2017 at 9:40:31 AM permalink
How'd you come up with +700 on the alt. run lines? You had +375, +315, +365. Only the Mariners (+315) covered the -1.5 runs. Reds lost outright (4-6) and Royals only won by 1 (1-0) without covering.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 31st, 2017 at 10:18:53 AM permalink
Quote: Shootress

Great day yesterday! Thanks Steel!



You're welcome! Let's hope for many more!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 31st, 2017 at 10:19:49 AM permalink
Quote: RS

How'd you come up with +700 on the alt. run lines? You had +375, +315, +365. Only the Mariners (+315) covered the -1.5 runs. Reds lost outright (4-6) and Royals only won by 1 (1-0) without covering.



RS, that +700 is YTD. But it is really a moot point since I am not going to publishing these since I can't get lines early.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

  • Jump to: