Thread Rating:

steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 15th, 2017 at 6:44:31 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Rays 141 +130Dogs 7X's
 Marlins 100
 Mets 105
 Brewers 110
 Giants 126 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
May 15th, 2017 at 1:43:44 PM permalink
Wow that's a huge swing in a month. Also an amazing start last season too. For sure there is something there before the capper adjust. Too build it back up again through the Summer is interesting. I hope you dig in and see what trends it was really grabbing. I hope this drawdown doesn't have a 16k range.

Quote: steeldco

The +130dogs last year went from being +12,222 on 04/21/16 to -3,556 on 05/13/16. It recovered to its high point of +15,001 on 08/16/16.

mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
May 16th, 2017 at 7:11:31 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Wow that's a huge swing in a month.

i agree. even dropping the 7x for all.
by day and cumulative (in units)
130+


Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on May 16, 2017
I Heart Vi Hart
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 16th, 2017 at 7:49:21 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Rays -700
 Marlins -100
 Mets -100
 Brewers -100
 Giants +882

Yesterday's results: -118
+130dogs -700
Other dogs -300
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +882
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -11,210
+130dogs +293
Other dogs -759
Favorites -347
Focus Picks -9,138
FocusFlips -1,259
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 16th, 2017 at 7:49:58 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Braves 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Indians -173 FocusFlips 7X's
 Pirates 155 +130Dogs 7X's
 Orioles 111
 Marlins 160 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 175 +130Dogs 1X's
 Reds 175 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rockies 105
 Royals 103
 Cardinals -103
 Diamondbacks -182
 Brewers 106
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
May 16th, 2017 at 2:59:28 PM permalink
Sally,

What dates are these? And are these all bets or just +130?

I don't see how/when it ever got to 60 units above expectation? I'm assuming 1 unit is $100 bet. Thus 60 units above expectation would be 60 wins above the 53% predicted level (assuming all the bets/odds average out to around -110).

I think once you set all to $100 bet size the high water mark never got much over 10 units give or take.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
May 16th, 2017 at 3:43:18 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Sally,

What dates are these? And are these all bets or just +130?

all are 130+
a unit is whatever you want
$100
$10
works well

It includes the 1x and 7x for the 130+
So far my data matches what has been posted

130+total in unitsdate# day
-7-74/4/20171
0-74/5/20172
20.0213.024/6/20173
14.0727.094/7/20174
24.4351.524/8/20175
3.6455.164/9/20176
-16.838.364/10/20177
-731.364/11/20178
25.256.564/12/20179
-1442.564/13/201710
4.6947.254/14/201711
-3512.254/15/201712
37.3149.564/16/201713
-4.5545.014/17/201714
15.460.414/18/201715
-0.6859.734/19/201716
-158.734/20/201717
058.734/21/201718
-157.734/22/201719
-750.734/23/201720
050.734/24/201721
-743.734/25/201722
-736.734/26/201723
-7.3529.384/27/201724
3.9233.34/28/201725
15.5448.844/29/201726
-3.1545.694/30/201727
4.9850.675/1/201728
0.1750.845/2/201729
-3.3647.485/3/201730
10.5458.025/4/201731
-850.025/5/201732
-1436.025/6/201733
-729.025/7/201734
029.025/8/201735
-2.126.925/9/201736
-1412.925/10/201737
012.925/11/201738
1.5614.485/12/201739
014.485/13/201740
-4.559.935/14/201741
-72.935/15/201742


Sally

now waiting for the big run up!
I Heart Vi Hart
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
May 16th, 2017 at 3:59:45 PM permalink
I see. It's maybe best to adjust the 7x down to 1x though - then it looks like the +130s which seem to average +145; do indeed hit around 40%. But have gotten as high as 50% over a small sample size. If they start hitting at near 50% over the next 100 picks there can be a nice run up; otherwise it may just churn between 35% to 45% hit rates and vig will slowly squeeze it as the average bet converges toward 130 since most dogs are just 500 type teams playing on the road.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
May 16th, 2017 at 7:06:42 PM permalink
Steel,

Have you considered playing the -1.5 run lines on you dogs. Often your +130-180 dogs dogs will pay 190 to 270+ if/when you bet them at -1.5 to win.

Sure maybe 20% of winners will turn into losers; But the others will have increased payouts of up to 50% on the odds. Your Atl. pick today would have hit at +200 so 1400 bucks (at 7x) which can offset the 2 losers.

If you can average +200 odds you only need to hit 1 in 3 which you have easily done on the dogs long term - after factoring in -1.5 runline.

fyi: I went through your old results and this would have left you up nicely. When your algo runs hot it typically wins by over a run.
You should look into it; also you can decrease bets to 4x and still make similar money with less risk on a hot streak.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
May 16th, 2017 at 10:11:06 PM permalink
Steel,

I think the Rays not the Indians would have been the "flip". I thought the flips were avoiding the heavy chalk focus picks?

*the flip of the favorite would have paid around +180 to +200 depending on the book or near +300 if you start paying the -1.5 run line on these preferred "dogs".


Quote: steeldco

Today's Picks:
 Braves 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Indians -173 FocusFlips 7X's
 Pirates 155 +130Dogs 7X's
 Orioles 111
 Marlins 160 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 175 +130Dogs 1X's
 Reds 175 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rockies 105
 Royals 103
 Cardinals -103
 Diamondbacks -182
 Brewers 106


  • Jump to: