2017 MLB Money Line Picks
Blue Jays -143 Focus 7X's
Marlins 136 +130Dogs 7X's
Brewers 116
Indians -163
Rays 121 Focus 7X's
White Sox 131 +130Dogs 7X's
Athletics 131 +130Dogs 7X's
Rangers 133 +130Dogs 7X's
HOW DARE YOU?Quote: steeldcobazooooka, sorry for the slow response. It's just that I am rarely on a site in the evening. My evenings are devoted to wife, family, friends,
However, can you speak more how you constructed your algorithm? It seems to lean toward road dogs on the +130. What else are you looking for in your generated picks?
**As for the 7x bet size I'd have to assume your normal bet is much less then 2% of bankroll since 7X would be 14% and any strategy can/will lose 7 in a row and then your wiped out. Even money line favorites that hit above 60-65 % winners still often lose 7 in a row.
Quote: bazooookaNo worries; you can get back to me whenever is convenient.
However, can you speak more how you constructed your algorithm? It seems to lean toward road dogs on the +130. What else are you looking for in your generated picks?
**As for the 7x bet size I'd have to assume your normal bet is much less then 2% of bankroll since 7X would be 14% and any strategy can/will lose 7 in a row and then your wiped out. Even money line favorites that hit above 60-65 % winners still often lose 7 in a row.
I'm not going to get into how the algorithm was constructed since there are many variables with many changes and additions through the several years of development. I can tell you what I started with and that was a belief that GOOD PITCHING DOESN'T BEAT GOOD HITTING. I can tell you that I wasn't entirely right about that, but it led me down interesting paths.
As far as your belief that even money line favorites often lose 7 in a row, I can tell you that last year the +130dogs never lost more than 5 days in a row. It happened only once. Only twice did it get to 4 consecutive losing days. And these are picks that are on average much larger dogs than even money picks.
I was just saying that if 7x bets were sized against a normal 2% per bet then you'd have 14% of bankroll online for every 7x bet. Thus one bad day/streak could nearly wipe you out.
I assume you must be betting a tiny percentage of your bankroll on your normal 1 unit bets. Most players I know play 1% to 3%. But for you to be able to scale a sytem to 7x suggests that your normal bet size is well under 1% of bank roll or there will be times when your bankroll negative on the year. Variance will wipe you out regardless of how good system is unless bet sized appropriate.
Quote: bazooookaI meant just 7 bets in a row (not days). You seem to average around five 7x bets per day so five days in a row of pure losses would be 25 bets or so. I dont think you'd ever miss that many in a row.
I was just saying that if 7x bets were sized against a normal 2% per bet then you'd have 14% of bankroll online for every 7x bet. Thus one bad day/streak could nearly wipe you out.
I assume you must be betting a tiny percentage of your bankroll on your normal 1 unit bets. Most players I know play 1% to 3%. But for you to be able to scale a sytem to 7x suggests that your normal bet size is well under 1% of bank roll or there will be times when your bankroll negative on the year. Variance will wipe you out regardless of how good system is unless bet sized appropriate.
OK. If you're talking about consecutive bets lost then last year the max consecutive loss number was 6. It happened twice.
In addition, another winning year this year will cause me to increase the 7X's max next year. I won't know how much I'll be taking it up until the end of the year, but it will be going up.
Quote: beachmonkeyThat maybe correct, but steeldco is not offering a system but a record of selection that may or may not help those of us who have no idea re selection of MLB teams. It's up to you how you use information provided. Start a new thread with your recommendations re betting using steeldco tips. From following this thread for a few years I can tell you my betting account is doing very well from the tips provided. I use a different betting method than most other people, it works for me and I know that as many people there are on this planet is only half of the suggested best betting strategies that have been walked through this site. Thanks once again steeldco for tips and thanks for not charging us for the great service. Thanks. Enjoy week end.
Thanks beachmonkey and you're welcome!
Blue Jays -1001
Marlins +952
Brewers +116
Indians -163
Rays +847
White Sox +917
Athletics -700
Rangers -700
Yesterday's results: +268
+130dogs +469
Other dogs +116
Favorites -163
Focus Picks -154
YTD Total +3,649
+130dogs +4,725
Other dogs +132
Favorites -879
Focus Picks -329
Orioles 143 +130Dogs 7X's
Cardinals EV Focus 7X's
Brewers 104
Rockies 115
Rays 192 Focus 7X's
Athletics 140 +130Dogs 7X's
Tigers 140 +130Dogs 7X's
Padres 108
Diamondbacks 156 +130Dogs 7X's
Rangers 145 +130Dogs 7X's
Will I be right? We'll see if the baseball gods allow it...............
I think the assumption U madeQuote: bazooookaI assume you must be betting a tiny percentage of your bankroll on your normal 1 unit bets.
is not correct.
S just makes unit bets and in the past and looks like this year, $100 is the unit bet.
I show max cash out-of-pocket to be $3,652.00.
I did not yet double-check that
that is 36.52 units
Sally
Quote: steeldcoIn going through the stats, based upon a pattern that I noticed, I hereby declare that I will have YUUGGEEE day tomorrow, Sunday.
Will I be right? We'll see if the baseball gods allow it...............
Do you parlay any bets for a small amount?
Not sure how many days are in the season, but I know you usually have 1 or 2 perfects so I feel like a small parlay could be profitable.
Quote: gamerfreakDo you parlay any bets for a small amount?
Not sure how many days are in the season, but I know you usually have 1 or 2 perfects so I feel like a small parlay could be profitable.
Yes it does work but most people do not have the patience for the ten or twenty days between returns . I started years ago wit $100 bank betting NRL in Australia as I played in work tipping competition I found I picked perfect round at least twice a season and half rounds many times more. I would never win end of year tipping competition so I thought I would use that outlay to bet live each weekend. End of that first season I made more than prizes pool of work competition. Then I found this thread four years ago and started using same method with tips supplied by steeldco. Haven't looked backwards since. Bank account is good. I tend to split big days tips ie 8 or more selection into two or three mini rounds and usually take a complete opposite round to the one tipped ie bet the whole round to loose as well. Small outlays plus good tips plus methodical approach plus patience = big returns. Hopefully answers your questions. Have fun.
Quote: steeldcoI'm not going to get into how the algorithm was constructed since there are many variables with many changes and additions through the several years of development. I can tell you what I started with and that was a belief that GOOD PITCHING DOESN'T BEAT GOOD HITTING. I can tell you that I wasn't entirely right about that, but it led me down interesting paths.
As far as your belief that even money line favorites often lose 7 in a row, I can tell you that last year the +130dogs never lost more than 5 days in a row. It happened only once. Only twice did it get to 4 consecutive losing days. And these are picks that are on average much larger dogs than even money picks.
Hahaha, that 1 time was the 5 day period that I decided to bet with you.
Quote: GWAEHahaha, that 1 time was the 5 day period that I decided to bet with you.
Wow....now that was awfully unlucky.
Orioles -700
Cardinals -700
Brewers -100
Rockies +115
Rays -700
Athletics -700
Tigers -700
Padres -100
Diamondbacks -700
Rangers -700
Yesterday's results: -4,985
+130dogs -3,500
Other dogs -85
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,400
YTD Total -1,336
+130dogs +1,225
Other dogs +47
Favorites -879
Focus Picks -1,729
Quote: steeldcoIn going through the stats, based upon a pattern that I noticed, I hereby declare that I will have YUUGGEEE day tomorrow, Sunday.
Will I be right? We'll see if the baseball gods allow it...............
After yesterday's nightmare, I hope this prediction turns out to be correct..............
Today's Picks:
Blue Jays -107 Focus 7X's
Reds -101
Tigers 200 +130Dogs 7X's
Rays 140 Focus 7X's
Pirates 154 +130Dogs 7X's
Rockies 123
Athletics -106 Focus 7X's
Diamondbacks 179 +130Dogs 7X's
We all must size appropriate. I will keep an eye on your picks just like I did on your NBA ones. If you can hit 40% on +130 over 500-1000+ picks then indeed there may be a sustainable edge here. I applaud your transparency.
I like Steels picks. Just curious on the 7x part and I enjoy the dialogue.. I always factor in risk of ruin into betting/investing. 5-10 game losing streaks are very common even for Billy Walters and his ilk. Ever seen a roulette wheel show nearly all red or black? It's very common if you walk around the Casino.
Quote: bazooookaAt 7x those are the swings. But you'll have $5000 winning days as well. If 5K is a small dent in one's bank roll then no biggie. I'm thinking one has to be willing to lose 30k-50k a season or more if you're trying for 30K in profits on the year.
We all must size appropriate. I will keep an eye on your picks just like I did on your NBA ones. If you can hit 40% on +130 over 500-1000+ picks then indeed there may be a sustainable edge here. I applaud your transparency.
bazooooka, keep watching. In the meantime, your number of 30K in profits on the year is below my hope. My hope is 3X's that number.
Yesterday's Results:
Blue Jays -749
Reds -101
Tigers +1400
Rays -700
Pirates +1078
Rockies +123
Athletics 0
Diamondbacks +1253
Yesterday's results: +2,304
+130dogs +3,731
Other dogs +22
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,449
YTD Total +968
+130dogs +4,956
Other dogs +69
Favorites -879
Focus Picks -3,178
Hopefully the baseball gods continue to smile upon us and grant me the ability to be able to predict the future success or failure of the +130dogs. The potential, if this indicator proves to work, would be monumental. Fingers crossed......
They are:
Rays
Blue Jays
Rangers
Rays 120 Focus 1X's
White Sox 131 +130Dogs 7X's
Padres 152 +130Dogs 7X's
Cubs -193 Focus 7X's
Angels 125 Focus 7X's
Diamondbacks 135 +130Dogs 7X's
Marlins 122
Quote: steeldcoI'm applying a bit of a change to the picks of +130dogs and Focus Picks. Last year I had found that a single team, or 2, would just wreck the results. There are 3 teams this year that are holding down the results. These 3 teams will remain as picks, but at a regular 1X amount. They will not be 7Xs until further notice.
They are:
Rays
Blue Jays
Rangers
Looks like good timing in taking these down.
Avoid crap as much as possible.Quote: ShootressAnd looks like a good thing I forgot the Sox played early today. That was my first win! LOL. I would be grateful for any advice on strategy that any of you would be willing to share.
Yesterday's Results:
Rays -100
White Sox -700
Padres -700
Cubs -1351
Angels -700
Diamondbacks +945
Marlins -100
Yesterday's results: -2,706
+130dogs -455
Other dogs -100
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -2,151
YTD Total -1,738
+130dogs +4,501
Other dogs -31
Favorites -879
Focus Picks -5,329
Quote: beachmonkeyAh diamond....: nearly had a complete loose round. Which prompts me to ask Steeldco is this, do you have a preference of rank order for your daily selections? I notice you list selection as they are playing schedule on the day. On occasion you have said you feel team "x" is most likely a win section or loose etc. is that a gut feeling or preference rankings. I am aware that you are sticking to selections as presented as that is the sole purpose of this exercise. Meaning you are not letting personal biases effect the selections as an admission or an omission . That's actually what I like about your thread by the way. Thanks. It's the long term result I like. Thanks
Although I may comment from time to time about a specific pick, I never let that subjectivity influence what I post as a selection. Doing that would blow a big hole into what I do since you can't apply subjectivity consistently and therefore you can never really know what you do well, or do poorly. No consistentcy......no solution.
Diamondbacks +2,884
Reds +2,205
Marlins +1,939
Royals +1,162
Mariners +1,015
Padres +1,001
Brewers +700
Tigers +700
Pirates +378
White Sox +217
Orioles -700
Dodgers -700
Rays -1,400
Phillies -1,400
Athletics -1,400
Rangers -2,100
Grand Total +4,501
White Sox 165 +130Dogs 7X's
Blue Jays -150 Focus 1X's
Tigers 105
Reds 155 +130Dogs 7X's
Braves 164 +130Dogs 7X's
Brewers 125
Angels 152 Focus 7X's
Twins 108
Padres 111
Quote: steeldcoFor those who may be interested, the below is a list of the teams that have been picked as a +130dog and how they have done YTD.
Diamondbacks +2,884
Reds +2,205
Marlins +1,939
Royals +1,162
Mariners +1,015
Padres +1,001
Brewers +700
Tigers +700
Pirates +378
White Sox +217
Orioles -700
Dodgers -700
Rays -1,400
Phillies -1,400
Athletics -1,400
Rangers -2,100
Grand Total +4,501
Interesting. Do you have a similar list but instead show the teams you have bet against (not for) and how much you're up/down against that team?
Quote: RSInteresting. Do you have a similar list but instead show the teams you have bet against (not for) and how much you're up/down against that team?
Interesting. I know that I have all of the requisite data, but it would be in separate daily files. I'll try to take a look at whether I can get it summarized without spending a weekend having to do it. Thanks RS. I'll let you know.
Quote: RSInteresting. Do you have a similar list but instead show the teams you have bet against (not for) and how much you're up/down against that team?
RS, here ya go.........opponents of +130dogs and how the +130dogs did against them. Damn Yankees!!!
Indians +2,086
Dodgers +1,498
Pirates +1,120
Cardinals +1,085
Twins +917
Blue Jays +700
Giants +581
Rockies +420
Nationals +287
Mets +252
Astros -238
Cubs -322
Mariners -385
Braves -700
Red Sox -700
Yankees -2,100
Grand Total 4,501
There were 10 of the +130dogs picked playing at home. 4 of them won for 4,319. 6 of them lost for 4,200.
The home dawgs were a net +119.
There were 25 of the +130dogs picked as visitors. 12 of them won 13,432. 13 of them lost 9,100.
The visiting dawgs were a net +4,382.
Today it is indicating a losing day, so I'm going to throttle back the max bets on today's +130dogs down to a standard 1X. Let's see what happens.
Yesterday's Results:
White Sox +1155
Blue Jays -150
Tigers -100
Reds +1085
Braves -700
Brewers -100
Angels +1064
Twins -100
Padres -100
Yesterday's results: +2,054
+130dogs +1,540
Other dogs -400
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +914
YTD Total +316
+130dogs +6,041
Other dogs -431
Favorites -879
Focus Picks -4,415
Cardinals -118 Focus 7X's
Cubs -210
Marlins 140 +130Dogs 1X's
Blue Jays 102 Focus 1X's
Phillies 125
Angels 165 +130Dogs 1X's
Twins 127
Royals 132 +130Dogs 1X's
Padres 125
to my eyes, seems like you are in an alternating win/lose pattern. (up one day, down the next)Quote: steeldcoIt seems like this new daily indicator may be somewhat creditable. It was a decent day yesterday for the +130dogs, as it foretold.
my hubby pointed it out.
I think it happened last year 2.
He loves your 130+ picks, btw.
I still love my Angels.
what thought you have on why the 8 straight days of ups and downs?
130+ are up 60.41 units
I say that is excellent so far!
red id 130+ dogs
Sally
130+ run total date day run
-7 -7 -9.1 4/4/2017 1 -9.1
0 -7 0.15 4/5/2017 2 -8.95
20.02 13.02 23.1 4/6/2017 3 14.15
14.07 27.09 14.79 4/7/2017 4 28.94
24.43 51.52 14.22 4/8/2017 5 43.16
3.64 55.16 1.13 4/9/2017 6 44.29
-16.8 38.36 -22.73 4/10/2017 7 21.56
-7 31.36 -10 4/11/2017 8 11.56
25.2 56.56 46.65 4/12/2017 9 58.21
-14 42.56 -24.4 4/13/2017 10 33.81
4.69 47.25 2.68 4/14/2017 11 36.49
-35 12.25 -49.85 4/15/2017 12 -13.36
37.31 49.56 23.04 4/16/2017 13 9.68
-4.55 45.01 -27.06 4/17/2017 14 -17.38
15.4 60.41 20.54 4/18/2017 15 3.16
The +130dogs are currently in a 7 day streak where it has been 1 up and 1 down exactly.
I took a look at last year and there was none exactly like this. One period was close at the beginning of May where there was a 6 day period of alternating wins and losses. I did not see another close period such as this.
But actually, that's not the indicator that I have run across. As a matter of fact, right now I see a mediocre Thursday (tomorrow), a good sized loss on Friday, and a mediocre to small gain on Saturday.
