Ping OneNickel - Horse Racing

Quote: bobbartop

One kind of negative wetness that is easy to spot is kidney sweat. Look for a white kinda foam in the groin area. A touch of it when they are loading isn't too bad, but if you spot it early it's a pretty good negative. In the post parade, even in the walking ring, that's not good. Of course, if it's running down the leg and just everywhere it's very negative. It's pretty easy to spot on a television monitor or the computer also.

Hey OneNickel, I found an old clip on my computer today from Mountaineer, I am not sure of the date, but I remembered a thread from early December where we were talking about horse appearance and I made the comment above about "kidney sweat". So I just posted the clip to youtube, take a close look at the #1, they are in the walking ring, look in the groin area of #1, this is kidney sweat. Of course, the horse is 30-1 anyway, but that's besides the point.

I wish I knew the date on this so I could see how they finished. This race is at least over a year old. Maybe I can figure it out later. But kidney sweat this early in the walking ring is bad news.

Quote: bobbartop

Hey OneNickel, I found an old clip on my computer today from Mountaineer, I am not sure of the date, but I remembered a thread from early December where we were talking about horse appearance and I made the comment above about "kidney sweat". So I just posted the clip to youtube, take a close look at the #1, they are in the walking ring, look in the groin area of #1, this is kidney sweat. Of course, the horse is 30-1 anyway, but that's besides the point.

I wish I knew the date on this so I could see how they finished. This race is at least over a year old. Maybe I can figure it out later. But kidney sweat this early in the walking ring is bad news.

I couldn't really see it. The way I look at it, if a horse is worse than 12-1, and it looks good, but too shiny, bad news. Basically I'm relying on the judgement of those who know better by using the odds, but not much choice.

I bet horses compulsively almost on little information. Santa Anita today race 2, all I knew was the jockey on the the third horse would not win based on his interview. So I basically just chose some of the other contenders. Total bet $8, so not like I'm going to have to become a prostitute to keep horse betting, but it was stupid for one reason. Basically just one piece of information, but I didn't look at all the horses. Called in my bet, because I had to( my Windows phone is costing me money), then got really scared seeing the #6 horse. Couldn't cancel my bet in time, or bet on #6. It barely won, but it won and I could just tell it would be a factor with a good chance to win.


1st 6 Classic Ruler 11.00 5.40 3.20
2nd 4 He's All That 8.40 3.80
3rd 2 Sawbuck 2.20
4th 7 Burnt Cognac

OTHER PAYOUTS


Amount

Pool

Runners

Paid




1.00 Exacta (6/4) 43.20
0.50 Trifecta (6/4/2) 63.10
2.00 Double (6/6) 65.80
1.00 Superfecta (6/4/2/7) 283.60

The video say 12/10/12 that shows the race looping.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

The video say 12/10/12 that shows the race looping.

That's a completely different race, in fact it may be about two years older than the other video. I've got all kinds of crap on my computer that I save. I was going to try to fix that before I showed it to you because the sound is all messed up. Anyway, if you want, take a look at the #4, trailing the pack, in the looping video. As she's going into the turn you can see between her legs all kinds of white foam. And then somewhere on my computer, I was going to post this but I can't find it, that same horse ran a couple weeks later and her legs are perfectly clean. They're just like us, their health and attitude changes from week to week.

By the way, in the first video, I don't know the results, but you can see the #9 is like the 1-5 odds-on favorite. To me, she looks terrible. She is moping around the walking ring with her head hung very low, she has no energy, she just looks like a horse I would never bet. As far as I know she might have won. After all, she is such a strong favorite. But she sure didn't look very happy. I like horses that look happy, full of life, and can't wait to get on the track and run like the wind. The #9 looks like she wants to go back to her stall and take a nap.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

The way I look at it, if a horse is worse than 12-1, and it looks good, but too shiny, bad news. Basically I'm relying on the judgement of those who know better by using the odds, but not much choice.

Trust me, any day of the week I can see plenty of low-priced favorites that look horrible and get a poor warm-up. That's a money maker when you can confidently throw out a low-priced favorite. And the guys narrating the show in the announcer booth, they often don't know crap. Sometimes I hear them say how good they think a horse looks, and I'll say to myself they must need a new pair of glasses.

Quote: bobbartop

Trust me, any day of the week I can see plenty of low-priced favorites that look horrible and get a poor warm-up. That's a money maker when you can confidently throw out a low-priced favorite. And the guys narrating the show in the announcer booth, they often don't know crap. Sometimes I hear them say how good they think a horse looks, and I'll say to myself they must need a new pair of glasses.

I watch TVG. My way is a losing way, just seems the least losing way I know. They're all losing ways, just seems like this way needs less time invested learning. I need to find a way to bet less when I'm less sure and more when I'm sure. I normally bet the same amount whether I think I'm picking numbers out of a hat or think there is only one way for the race to turn out. Until I replace this phone, can't really test my instinct.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

I watch TVG. My way is a losing way, just seems the least losing way I know. They're all losing ways, just seems like this way needs less time invested learning. I need to find a way to bet less when I'm less sure and more when I'm sure. I normally bet the same amount whether I think I'm picking numbers out of a hat or think there is only one way for the race to turn out. Until I replace this phone, can't really test my instinct.

Can I ask you a personal question? Do you live near a track? There is nothing like the "real thing". I grew up going to Santa Anita and Hollypark before I was even old enough to drive. I love being right in the paddock. A lot of times you can actually smell the liniment on the horses. It smells like a hospital ward. With a good show you can catch a lot of stuff on the monitor but there ain't nothing like being right there physically. Sadly, I don't live near a track now. I miss it. And it's actually kinda cool to be right there with the well known personalities instead of just reading about them in the paper. Shoemaker, Pincay, Wittingham, it was just another day to me when I was a young man. I love being near the horses. The only bad part is when one gets hurt. It's so upsetting to me that I have just turned around and walked out and gone home, thinking about it all day. And it's just part of the game, but you never get used to it. It's like you never get used to putting a pet down, it never gets easy. It's very upsetting.

I live close enough to a racetrack I could literally ride a horse there if I had a horse. Everything is better at home on tv for me. I'm naive like this, find it hard to believe they're not pets, and it's just a business. I hate that if a horse doesn't win, it's sold for dog food eventually. They should be taken care of for life or not purchased or bred. I agree. People for the most part probably dont realize when a horse falls, it probably just is good as dead.