Packers at Bears could be the coldest game in Chicago history

The over/under line on the Green Bay/Chicago game for 12/18/16 is 38.5 at most books. Some have it at 38 even. Before I get to my point, let me quote from CNN.com:

Quote: CNN

Cold temperatures are expected to blanket a large portion of the US this weekend, sending a lot of folks indoors.

But not everyone will be shielded from the elements.

For the NFL, games don't stop because of extreme cold, and one rivalry game in particular has potential for some bone-chilling numbers for a team's record books.

The Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field, with kickoff scheduled at 1 p.m. ET (noon local time) on Sunday. The high in Chicago is expected to be a single digit, and it could be the coldest home game in Bears' history.

Source: Packers at Bears could be the coldest game in Chicago history

I've said this before, but every time there is an extremely cold football game the squares come out of the woodwork and bet the under, thinking the cold weather will result in a low-scoring game.

To that, I claim that temperature has very little correlation to points scored. In fact, I forecast a total of 44.45 points.

How did I arrive at that figure, you might ask. In normal games it is very easy to forecast the points scored by each team as follows:

Home team: average(average points scored per game, opponent average points allowed) + 1.5
Away team: average(average points scored per game, opponent average points allowed) - 1.5

Chicago is the home team so I predict their total points to be average(17.0,22.3)+1.5 = 22.0
Green Bay is visiting so I predict their total to be average(25.6,22.3)-1.5 = 22.45

So, I predict Green Bay to win by 0.45* points and total points scored of 44.45.

Green Bay is actually favored to win by 4.5. While this method is usually off by up to 3 points on the spread, it is amazing accurate for predicting the over/under line in the vast majority of games. In this case, I think the squares have bet it down to 38.5. So, my advice is to be the over. I wouldn't bet the farm on it, just whatever you might pay for the average dinner.

* corrected.

You are so right on how the public sees these games. I always believe if you are betting against the public, you are making the right play. Will be interesting to see how the line moves until game time.

Aaron Rodgers is really gimpy. That explains the low over under. It is possible it is you looking at the weather while others are not. Chicago does not exactly have a dynamic offense, too.

Quote: SOOPOO

Aaron Rodgers is really gimpy.

GB just beat Seattle 38-10 their last game.

Quote: Wizard

GB just beat Seattle 38-10 their last game.

I'm on the other side, not because I disagree, but because of stale numbers.

Ideally, your theory is correct but doesn't pan out in this particular case.

I would take the over. The NFC North is tougher than a single digit day. There's a wild card slot in contention. And all those teams do cold weather training.

Voted before I read your stance on it, so an independent derivation.

Two cold weather teams playing in the cold ..... nothing new to them


windchill will take it below 0*F polar bear weather

Over/Under on number of drunks in the stand suffering frost bite now that would be a interesting number

At what temp does stadium pisswater beer flash-freeze over, possibly faster than wannabe drunks can drink it? Desperation tongue & lip injuries, stuck to beer?

Quote: Wizard

GB just beat Seattle 38-10 their last game.

No denying that. Just that as the game went on it looked like Rodgers was getting worse and worse. And some say muscle injuries do not do well in cold weather. That being said, I'll go over..... Packers 23, Bears 17.

Quote: Wizard

The over/under line on the Green Bay/Chicago game for 12/18/16 is 38.5 at most books. Some have it at 38 even. Before I get to my point, let me quote from CNN.com:



Source: Packers at Bears could be the coldest game in Chicago history

I've said this before, but every time there is an extremely cold football game the squares come out of the woodwork and bet the under, thinking the cold weather will result in a low-scoring game.

To that, I claim that temperature has very little correlation to points scored. In fact, I forecast a total of 44.45 points.

How did I arrive at that figure, you might ask. In normal games it is very easy to forecast the points scored by each team as follows:

Home team: average(average points scored per game, opponent average points allowed) + 1.5
Away team: average(average points scored per game, opponent average points allowed) - 1.5

Chicago is the home team so I predict their total points to be average(17.0,22.3)+1.5 = 22.0
Green Bay is visiting so I predict their total to be average(25.6,22.3)-1.5 = 22.45

So, I predict Green Bay to win by 0.45* points and total points scored of 44.45.

Green Bay is actually favored to win by 4.5. While this method is usually off by up to 3 points on the spread, it is amazing accurate for predicting the over/under line in the vast majority of games. In this case, I think the squares have bet it down to 38.5. So, my advice is to be the over. I wouldn't bet the farm on it, just whatever you might pay for the average dinner.

* corrected.

Mike, I'm curious. If you are picking the the first couple games of new season would you use the previous year's data to make your calculation? I'm thinking that I doubt you would use data from pre-season games.

Quote: DrawingDead

At what temp does stadium pisswater beer flash-freeze over, possibly faster than wannabe drunks can drink it? Desperation tongue & lip injuries, stuck to beer?

Was in Buffalo in the early 90's vs the Jets with a negative WInd Chill. Beer starts foaming head while just sitting and the head freezes. Impossible to drink at that point.

51 points with 5 minutes left to play over it is

Nice play, wizard.

Quote: lilredrooster

Mike, I'm curious. If you are picking the the first couple games of new season would you use the previous year's data to make your calculation? I'm thinking that I doubt you would use data from pre-season games.

Good question about how far back to go. I think I would look only at the previous season. I used to go back further and weight each game by how recent it was, but in retrospect, I think I was overthinking it.

About pre-season games, I pay them no attention.

Quote: Rigondeaux

Nice play, wizard.

Thank you.

Here is some more data from SportsInsights (just google the below quote). Basically wind is bad but cold doesn't matter and rain is overrated.

"how-do-sharp-nfl-bettors-use-weather-forecasts-to-make-money"

Quote:

Who chose those ugly lime green uniforms for Sea.?

That was ugly. I also bet the Rams and the points unfortunately :(

I attended the NFC Championship Game in Green Bay that the Giants won on the way to beating the Belicheats in the Big Game. It was below zero and the powers that be thought starting the game after the sun went down was a good idea. Hot chocolates turned into milk shakes after about ten minutes. It was horrible, and then the game went into overtime. On Tuesday, I was in Vegas sitting in a hot tub and I think it took several days to get my core temperature anywhere near normal.