2016 2017 NBA Money Line Picks
December 18th, 2016 at 6:55:48 AM
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The data shows, so far for this year, that any dog picked at less than a +130 dog has been a loser. Nearly all of the amount lost on dogs is in this group. I am adjusting the algorithm for this going forward.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 18th, 2016 at 7:49:30 AM
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Today's Picks:
Mavericks laying -125 to win 100
76ers laying -130 to win 100
Heat laying 100 to win 160
Raptors laying -210 to win 100
Mavericks laying -125 to win 100
76ers laying -130 to win 100
Heat laying 100 to win 160
Raptors laying -210 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 18th, 2016 at 8:03:49 AM
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Quote: steeldcoThe data shows, so far for this year, that any dog picked at less than a +130 dog has been a loser. Nearly all of the amount lost on dogs is in this group. I am adjusting the algorithm for this going forward.
If you have a defined unambiguous selection process, why don't you see how it would have done LAST year? Or the last 5 years?
December 18th, 2016 at 8:36:09 AM
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Because the stats are updated after each game and picks are based upon those. If I were to try to backtest, then I would have to go back and update each day of the season, find the money lines at that time, get the algorithm's picks, and determine how they did. It can be done, but I'm not about to devote that amount of time in order to do so.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 18th, 2016 at 8:41:54 AM
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Quote: steeldcoBecause the stats are updated after each game and picks are based upon those. If I were to try to backtest, then I would have to go back and update each day of the season, find the money lines at that time, get the algorithm's picks, and determine how they did. It can be done, but I'm not about to devote that amount of time in order to do so.
Understood. Do you take into account the egregious practice of a team sitting its 3 best players for 'rest'? Your algorithm might have shown Cleveland to be a good bet against Memphis but you and I know differently....
December 18th, 2016 at 8:53:59 AM
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When I am aware of those instances, then yes I will just drop the pick.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 18th, 2016 at 1:01:34 PM
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If you don't play the +130 thru +300 type dogs aren't you basically just betting chalk and slight underdogs? I'd think you might want to keep the +200 and greater type dogs in there when they are "home dogs" like Timberwolves was last night
December 18th, 2016 at 1:04:37 PM
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Thanks bazooooka, but I think you misunderstood. The +101 thru +129 dogs, when picked, are predominantly losers. I have tweaked the algorithm to exclude those.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 18th, 2016 at 1:30:37 PM
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I see. Would it have been better to just spread bet them?
Or is your data saying that the +101 to +129, albeit slight dogs, have not pulling upsets at a rate commensurate with their odds (or even in the ballpark) and thus they have been mostly losing their games outright.
Or is your data saying that the +101 to +129, albeit slight dogs, have not pulling upsets at a rate commensurate with their odds (or even in the ballpark) and thus they have been mostly losing their games outright.
December 18th, 2016 at 1:50:50 PM
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For whatever the reason, that group of dogs has been downright horrible. There have been 18 picks in this group. Only 6 of them have won. They resulted in 696 of winnings. The other 12 were 1,200 in losses. A net loss of -504 for the group.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 18th, 2016 at 1:59:34 PM
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Hmm I would have figured about 40-45% would have pulled upsets. Maybe your being to quick to exclude. Mean reversion might kick in. Good luck.
December 19th, 2016 at 7:14:29 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +200
Mavericks +100
76ers +100
Heat -100
Raptors +100
YTD:
Favorites -45
Underdogs -726
Total -771
Mavericks +100
76ers +100
Heat -100
Raptors +100
YTD:
Favorites -45
Underdogs -726
Total -771
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 19th, 2016 at 7:21:00 AM
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Today's Picks:
Hawks laying 100 to win 130
Suns laying 100 to win 185
Hawks laying 100 to win 130
Suns laying 100 to win 185
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 20th, 2016 at 8:43:36 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +30
Hawks +130
Suns -100
YTD:
Favorites -45
Underdogs -696
Total -741
Hawks +130
Suns -100
YTD:
Favorites -45
Underdogs -696
Total -741
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 20th, 2016 at 8:56:15 AM
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Today's Picks:
76ers laying 100 to win 140
Lakers laying 100 to win 375
Bucks laying 100 to win 150
Jazz laying 100 to win 575
76ers laying 100 to win 140
Lakers laying 100 to win 375
Bucks laying 100 to win 150
Jazz laying 100 to win 575
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 21st, 2016 at 4:45:16 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -400
76ers -100
Lakers -100
Bucks -100
Jazz -100
YTD:
Favorites -45
Underdogs -1096
Total -1141
76ers -100
Lakers -100
Bucks -100
Jazz -100
YTD:
Favorites -45
Underdogs -1096
Total -1141
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 21st, 2016 at 9:04:46 AM
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Today's Picks:
Pistons laying -280 to win 100
Hawks laying -185 to win 100
Wizards laying 100 to win 160
Jazz laying -290 to win 100
Mavericks laying 100 to win 180
Pistons laying -280 to win 100
Hawks laying -185 to win 100
Wizards laying 100 to win 160
Jazz laying -290 to win 100
Mavericks laying 100 to win 180
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 22nd, 2016 at 3:50:47 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -415
Pistons -280
Hawks -185
Wizards +160
Jazz -290
Mavericks +180
YTD:
Favorites -800
Underdogs -756
Total -1556
Pistons -280
Hawks -185
Wizards +160
Jazz -290
Mavericks +180
YTD:
Favorites -800
Underdogs -756
Total -1556
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 22nd, 2016 at 4:05:36 AM
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Today's Picks:
Pacers laying -110 to win EV
Knicks laying -235 to win 100
Lakers laying 100 to win 170
Clippers laying -110 to win EV
Pacers laying -110 to win EV
Knicks laying -235 to win 100
Lakers laying 100 to win 170
Clippers laying -110 to win EV
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 22nd, 2016 at 2:38:26 PM
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Hi Steel, what do your models see on laying chalk on favorites? I've often assumed that lines are slightly tilted against favorites since Joe public prefers them. It'd seem a decent run on dogs could square you up but the Chalk would have to hit to 70% going forward to bring you toward even. Have you looked at just betting dogs whenever your model sees ML value?
December 23rd, 2016 at 7:29:56 AM
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Quote: bazooookaHi Steel, what do your models see on laying chalk on favorites? I've often assumed that lines are slightly tilted against favorites since Joe public prefers them. It'd seem a decent run on dogs could square you up but the Chalk would have to hit to 70% going forward to bring you toward even. Have you looked at just betting dogs whenever your model sees ML value?
bazooooka, I'm glad you brought this up. I'm going to tweak the algorithm on favorites. When I saw your comment, I broke down the favorite picks made so far (albeit a small sample size). Right now the favorites have hit at a 60% rate. Obviously not enough since we were laying quite a bit on some of those losses. However, in this process I noticed that the favorites up to -199 accounted for nearly all of the YTD losses. This is the change that I will be making.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 23rd, 2016 at 7:31:02 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -10
Pacers -110
Knicks 100
Lakers -100
Clippers 100
YTD:
Favorites -700
Underdogs -866
Total -1566
Pacers -110
Knicks 100
Lakers -100
Clippers 100
YTD:
Favorites -700
Underdogs -866
Total -1566
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 23rd, 2016 at 8:28:38 AM
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Today's Picks:
Bulls laying 100 to win 150
Thunder laying 100 to win 160
Pelicans laying -200 to win 100
Grizzlies laying 100 to win 140
76ers laying 100 to win 165
Mavericks laying 100 to win 220
Bulls laying 100 to win 150
Thunder laying 100 to win 160
Pelicans laying -200 to win 100
Grizzlies laying 100 to win 140
76ers laying 100 to win 165
Mavericks laying 100 to win 220
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 24th, 2016 at 6:58:13 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +420
Bulls -100
Thunder +160
Pelicans +100
Grizzlies +140
76ers -100
Mavericks +220
YTD:
Favorites -600
Underdogs -546
Total -1146
Bulls -100
Thunder +160
Pelicans +100
Grizzlies +140
76ers -100
Mavericks +220
YTD:
Favorites -600
Underdogs -546
Total -1146
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 25th, 2016 at 7:25:20 AM
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Today's Picks:
Knicks laying 100 to win 130
Bulls laying 100 to win 350
Timberwolves laying 100 to win 170
Knicks laying 100 to win 130
Bulls laying 100 to win 350
Timberwolves laying 100 to win 170
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 26th, 2016 at 6:51:29 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -300
Knicks -100
Bulls -100
Timberwolves -100
YTD:
Favorites -600
Underdogs -846
Total -1446
Knicks -100
Bulls -100
Timberwolves -100
YTD:
Favorites -600
Underdogs -846
Total -1446
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 26th, 2016 at 8:25:26 AM
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Today's Picks:
Hornets laying -270 to win 100
76ers laying 100 to win 315
Hornets laying -270 to win 100
76ers laying 100 to win 315
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 27th, 2016 at 4:16:56 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -370
Hornets -270
76ers -100
YTD:
Favorites -870
Underdogs -946
Total -1816
Hornets -270
76ers -100
YTD:
Favorites -870
Underdogs -946
Total -1816
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 27th, 2016 at 5:35:45 AM
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Today's Picks:
Celtics laying -270 to win 100
Thunder laying -150 to win 100
Mavericks laying 100 to win 225
Celtics laying -270 to win 100
Thunder laying -150 to win 100
Mavericks laying 100 to win 225
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 28th, 2016 at 7:25:28 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +100
Celtics +100
Thunder +100
Mavericks -100
YTD:
Favorites -670
Underdogs -1046
Total -1716
Celtics +100
Thunder +100
Mavericks -100
YTD:
Favorites -670
Underdogs -1046
Total -1716
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 28th, 2016 at 9:28:28 AM
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Today's Picks:
Pacers laying 100 to win 180
Bucks laying 100 to win 135
Bulls laying -450 to win 100
Clippers laying 100 to win 190
Suns laying 100 to win 1175
Raptors laying 100 to win 375
Pacers laying 100 to win 180
Bucks laying 100 to win 135
Bulls laying -450 to win 100
Clippers laying 100 to win 190
Suns laying 100 to win 1175
Raptors laying 100 to win 375
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 29th, 2016 at 9:39:35 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -165
Pacers -100
Bucks +135
Bulls +100
Clippers -100
Suns -100
Raptors -100
YTD:
Favorites -570
Underdogs -1311
Total -1881
Pacers -100
Bucks +135
Bulls +100
Clippers -100
Suns -100
Raptors -100
YTD:
Favorites -570
Underdogs -1311
Total -1881
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 29th, 2016 at 10:09:43 AM
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Today's Picks:
Heat laying 100 to win 230
Cavaliers laying -255 to win 100
Suns laying 100 to win 360
I sure am getting tired of seeing the Suns showing up in the picks.................
Heat laying 100 to win 230
Cavaliers laying -255 to win 100
Suns laying 100 to win 360
I sure am getting tired of seeing the Suns showing up in the picks.................
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 30th, 2016 at 5:38:23 AM
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Apparently bitchin' about something helps.....
Yesterday's Results: +360
Heat -100
Cavaliers +100
Suns +360
YTD:
Favorites -470
Underdogs -1051
Total -1521
Yesterday's Results: +360
Heat -100
Cavaliers +100
Suns +360
YTD:
Favorites -470
Underdogs -1051
Total -1521
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 30th, 2016 at 8:36:13 AM
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Quote: steeldcoApparently bitchin' about something helps.....
Yesterday's Results: +360
Heat -100
Cavaliers +100
Suns +360
YTD:
Favorites -470
Underdogs -1051
Total -1521
I call it "whine and win". Can't invoke it too often or it wears out. Lol...
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
December 30th, 2016 at 8:45:27 AM
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"whine and win"..... I like it. I'll try not to wear it out....
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 30th, 2016 at 8:57:06 AM
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Today's Picks:
Nets laying 100 to win 315
Heat laying 100 to win 370
Rockets laying -240 to win 100
Trailblazers laying 100 to win 575
Nuggets laying -700 to win 100
Nets laying 100 to win 315
Heat laying 100 to win 370
Rockets laying -240 to win 100
Trailblazers laying 100 to win 575
Nuggets laying -700 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 31st, 2016 at 7:48:00 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -900
Nets -100
Heat -100
Rockets +100
Trailblazers -100
Nuggets -700
YTD:
Favorites -1070
Underdogs -1351
Total -2421
Nets -100
Heat -100
Rockets +100
Trailblazers -100
Nuggets -700
YTD:
Favorites -1070
Underdogs -1351
Total -2421
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 31st, 2016 at 7:56:41 AM
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The algorithm found nothing worth playing today. No picks today.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 31st, 2016 at 9:35:14 AM
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Holy Sh$%^... Steeldco! You are still at that algorithm picking again? lol I remember you from a few years ago. I just started posting on this site again recently. How have your games been doing?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
December 31st, 2016 at 9:38:43 AM
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Great on baseball. OK on football. Absolutely suck (so far) at the World Wrestling, er NBA.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 1st, 2017 at 10:13:12 AM
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Today's Picks:
Pistons laying -200 to win 100
Trailblazers laying 100 to win 180
Pistons laying -200 to win 100
Trailblazers laying 100 to win 180
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 2nd, 2017 at 6:43:59 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +280
Pistons +100
Trailblazers +180
YTD:
Favorites -970
Underdogs -1171
Total -2141
Pistons +100
Trailblazers +180
YTD:
Favorites -970
Underdogs -1171
Total -2141
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:55:12 AM
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Today's Picks:
Cavaliers laying -460 to win 100
Rockets laying -475 to win 100
Nuggets laying 100 to win 1100
Clippers laying -225 to win 100
Cavaliers laying -460 to win 100
Rockets laying -475 to win 100
Nuggets laying 100 to win 1100
Clippers laying -225 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 3rd, 2017 at 6:48:50 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +200
Cavaliers 100
Rockets 100
Nuggets -100
Clippers 100
YTD:
Favorites -670
Underdogs -1271
Total -1941
Cavaliers 100
Rockets 100
Nuggets -100
Clippers 100
YTD:
Favorites -670
Underdogs -1271
Total -1941
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 3rd, 2017 at 7:52:50 AM
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Today's Picks:
Spurs laying -245 to win 100
Spurs laying -245 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 4th, 2017 at 6:11:31 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +100
Spurs +100
YTD:
Favorites -570
Underdogs -1271
Total -1841
Spurs +100
YTD:
Favorites -570
Underdogs -1271
Total -1841
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 4th, 2017 at 9:17:55 AM
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Today's Picks:
Cavaliers laying -235 to win 100
Kings laying -400 to win 100
Awfully odd that we haven't had a dog picked for a couple of days now............
Cavaliers laying -235 to win 100
Kings laying -400 to win 100
Awfully odd that we haven't had a dog picked for a couple of days now............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 5th, 2017 at 12:28:56 PM
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Yesterday's Results: -635
Cavaliers -235
Kings -400
YTD:
Favorites -1205
Underdogs -1271
Total -2476
Cavaliers -235
Kings -400
YTD:
Favorites -1205
Underdogs -1271
Total -2476
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 5th, 2017 at 12:37:33 PM
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Today's Picks:
Pacers laying -600 to win 100
Rockets laying -400 to win 100
Spurs laying -380 to win 100
Trailblazers laying -250 to win 100
This must now be the 3rd. or 4th. day without a dog getting picked. I would never have guessed that it would go this long without a dog. Not to mention the fact that at the prices of these favorites, a losing day is murderous.
Pacers laying -600 to win 100
Rockets laying -400 to win 100
Spurs laying -380 to win 100
Trailblazers laying -250 to win 100
This must now be the 3rd. or 4th. day without a dog getting picked. I would never have guessed that it would go this long without a dog. Not to mention the fact that at the prices of these favorites, a losing day is murderous.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
