2016 WoV NFL Picks Game (Discussion Thread)

I'd also like to apologize for no PM's being sent and the Playoff thread not yet being posted. Both of those things will happen tomorrow. I ran into an unexpected situation that required several hours of my time during which I was supposed to be doing that and am just getting ready for bed now.

I also would like to acknowledge miplet ' s quick settlement of our bet. Sweetness...thanks!

I apologize for my ignorance, but with the Fiddle in the Middle and Goat prizes, who owes who how much money?

Whatever is owed to me, I would like to appoint BBB to do the collecting, to satisfy a prior debt I have to her.

My contribution was given to mission prior to the end of the contest .

Quote: Wizard

I apologize for my ignorance, but with the Fiddle in the Middle and Goat prizes, who owes who how much money?

Whatever is owed to me, I would like to appoint BBB to do the collecting, to satisfy a prior debt I have to her.

WizardofNothing is correct that he fully contributed all of his donation prior to the end of the contest, that was settled last week.

I will PM BBB instead of you regarding payment, in that event.

Greetings!

The Payment PM's have now been sent. Also, I have posted the thread for the Playoff Picks Game:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/27920-2016-wov-playoff-picks-game/#post570764

I will post the first set of Lines for that game later on tonight, anyone who played this game or participated in this thread will receive a reminder PM and a link to the Playoff Picks thread later tonight.

Here is the post that was mentioned a few days ago containing the aggregated records of anyone with at least 200 picks to that point:

Quote: MidwestAP

I've noticed some interest in seeing aggregated results of Mission's picks games over the years, so I took a few minutes to pull the data together. I believe this is the fifth season, so the data below is compiled from the first four, starting with 2012. If I'm wrong, please let me know and I can go back further.

- There are 7 players who have participated in all four seasons, Wizard, JohnZimbo, Steeldco, AyeCarumba, Miplet, Mission, and Ten2Win.

- In 2012, there wasn't an option to forfeit (go 0-5) once you exceeded your skip week, you were just out.

- The list of champions are:

2012 Wizard (71.26%)
2013 BoyMimbo (57.95%)
2014 Wizard (70.00%)
2015 Ed Collins (59.04%)

- I've listed the aggregated results for all participants with at least 200 picks over those four seasons. I have the complete record if anyone is interested in knowing other results.

- The results include confidence picks as double, and exclude the forfeited 0-5 weeks (except 2014, as I couldn't identify those who took forfeits)

- The aggregated record for all players (53 unique participants over four seasons) is 4638-4622 (50.09%)

Player	Win	Loss	Pct
Wizard	220	139	61.28%
MidwestAP	129	108	54.43%
Vendman1	106	94	53.00%
Mission146	174	156	52.73%
JW17	137	123	52.69%
Paradigm	132	121	52.17%
Miplet	184	169	52.12%
beachbumbabs	123	115	51.68%
JohnZimbo	192	183	51.20%
RDWPotus	107	103	50.95%
Terapined	126	122	50.81%
EdCollins	131	130	50.19%
AyeCarumba	185	185	50.00%
Steeldco	188	190	49.74%
StrictlyAP	133	135	49.63%
Aluiso	133	136	49.44%
JML24	129	134	49.05%
10DollarBri	126	135	48.28%
Ten2Win	172	198	46.49%
SOOPOO	137	159	46.28%

Quote: Mission146

Here is the post that was mentioned a few days ago containing the aggregated records of anyone with at least 200 picks to that point:

Quote: MidwestAP

I've noticed some interest in seeing aggregated results of Mission's picks games over the years, so I took a few minutes to pull the data together. I believe this is the fifth season, so the data below is compiled from the first four, starting with 2012. If I'm wrong, please let me know and I can go back further.

- There are 7 players who have participated in all four seasons, Wizard, JohnZimbo, Steeldco, AyeCarumba, Miplet, Mission, and Ten2Win.

- In 2012, there wasn't an option to forfeit (go 0-5) once you exceeded your skip week, you were just out.

- The list of champions are:

2012 Wizard (71.26%)
2013 BoyMimbo (57.95%)
2014 Wizard (70.00%)
2015 Ed Collins (59.04%)

- I've listed the aggregated results for all participants with at least 200 picks over those four seasons. I have the complete record if anyone is interested in knowing other results.

- The results include confidence picks as double, and exclude the forfeited 0-5 weeks (except 2014, as I couldn't identify those who took forfeits)

- The aggregated record for all players (53 unique participants over four seasons) is 4638-4622 (50.09%)

Player	Win	Loss	Pct
Wizard	220	139	61.28%
MidwestAP	129	108	54.43%
Vendman1	106	94	53.00%
Mission146	174	156	52.73%
JW17	137	123	52.69%
Paradigm	132	121	52.17%
Miplet	184	169	52.12%
beachbumbabs	123	115	51.68%
JohnZimbo	192	183	51.20%
RDWPotus	107	103	50.95%
Terapined	126	122	50.81%
EdCollins	131	130	50.19%
AyeCarumba	185	185	50.00%
Steeldco	188	190	49.74%
StrictlyAP	133	135	49.63%
Aluiso	133	136	49.44%
JML24	129	134	49.05%
10DollarBri	126	135	48.28%
Ten2Win	172	198	46.49%
SOOPOO	137	159	46.28%

There must be a problem with the list.... you omitted all the players below me................

That list was current as of last year and only contains players with 200 or more picks.

I want to acknowledge Wizardofnothing's payment for our side bet.

All side action with me has been settled.

Quote: miplet

All side action with me has been settled.

And very quickly, too. Thanks, miplet!

I have a suggestion for next year's contest. It may seem a little ridiculous for me to make a suggestion since I didn't participate but I'll go ahead and make one anyway. The Wizard has acknowledged that he obtained an advantage (compared to ordinary bettors, not contest bettors) by being able to bet on stale lines that were no longer available at the time of the bet. It is very likely that many other players used this same advantage. Because of this, the results did not truly reflect handicapping ability. My suggestion is to eliminate this advantage so that the results WOULD truly reflect ability. To do this a bettor could be allowed to make a bet on any game at any time up until game time on a line posted at one particular book that has its line history tracked by covers.com such as betonline.ag. Then, the Administrator would look at the line history and verify that be spread quoted by the bettor matches up with the time indicated by the line history. If it does not match up then the bet is either disallowed or posted at the correct line shown by the line history. As an additional safeguard the Administrator would take a screenshot of the book's lines at various times to insure that the bettor's bet is quoted at the correct line. The upside is that the contest would then seem to me to be truly reflective of handicapping abilities. The downside is that the Administrator would have to do more work. But maybe not all that much more work. Here is a cut and paste of some of covers.com tracking of line history on the Giants vs. the Eagles on 12/22/2016:

Note: I just noticed that betonline.ag does not always post their sides and totals at -110. So, a different book would have to be found that does to calculate the winner in % terms as it has been done in the past.


12/18/16 7:18:25 PM 3/-110 (Open) OFF
12/18/16 8:18:25 PM 3/-110 42-110 (Open)
12/18/16 8:28:25 PM 3/-115 42-110
12/18/16 9:08:25 PM 3/-120 42-110
12/19/16 1:38:26 AM 3/-118 42-110
12/19/16 1:48:26 AM 3/-117 42-110
12/19/16 2:18:26 AM 3/-112 42-110
12/19/16 12:58:27 PM 3/-115 42-110
12/19/16 1:38:28 PM 2.5/-110 41.5-110
12/19/16 5:48:27 PM 2.5/-105 41.5-110
12/20/16 2:18:28 PM 2.5/100 41.5-110
12/21/16 1:18:26 AM 2.5/100 41.5-112
12/21/16 1:38:27 AM 2.5/101 41.5-112
12/21/16 3:08:26 AM 2.5/101 41-118
12/21/16 10:38:28 AM 2.5/101 41-110
12/21/16 3:28:28 PM 2.5/101 41.5-110

Nice idea, but that's 16 different time slots, times 25 players, times 5 picks per player - so it's not so easy to manually check.

I'm sure a script could be written to do it, though.