2016 WoV NFL Picks Game (Discussion Thread)

for this year, am I allowed to make only 4 picks as long as 1 of them are a confidence pick, or is it 5 picks and 1 may or may not be a conf pick. I am sure it is in the rules but I would like to hear it from the horses mouth so to speak so I don't misinterpret them.

It must be five unique Picks whether or not there is a Confidence Pick.

Quote: Mission146

It must be five unique Picks whether or not there is a Confidence Pick.

Ok that's what I thought

Picks will be posted soon?

On it right now, Internet was out!

Greetings!

The Week 17 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:

Skip Week

Zourah:

Titans -3
Buccaneers -4.5
Rams UNDER 40.5
Saints +7
Chiefs OVER 44.5 CONFIDENCE

PlayYourCardsRight:

Skip Week

Wudged:

Broncos -1.5
Jaguars +4.5-Confidence
Seahawks -9.5
Jets +3.5
Charges +5.5

SOOPOO:

Bills -3.5 Confidence
Saints +7
Giants +7.5
Dolphins +9.5
Broncos -1.5

OdiousGambit:

Bengals (PK)
Browns +6
Jaguars +4.5
49ers +9.5
Rams +6.5

AyeCarumba:

49ers +9.5 - CONFIDENCE
Browns +6
Bengals PK
Lions +3
Raiders - OVER 40.5

EdCollins:

Patriots -9.5 (confidence)
Chargers +5.5
Saints/Falcons Over 56.5
Cowboys +4.5
Bucs -4.5

JohnnyQ:

Jets (+3.5)
Colts (-4.5)
Rams (+6.5)
Chargers (+5.5)
Broncos (-1.5)

Terapined:

Ravens pk
Giants +6.5
Bucs -4.5
Dolphins +9.5
Bucs over confidence

GenWyzgy:

Jets +3.5
Giants +7.5
Packers -3
Panthers +4.5
Lions OVER 49.5

JW17:

Broncos (-1.5)
Browns (+6) confidence
Jets (+3.5)
Redskins (-7.5)
Chargers (+5.5)

JohnZimbo:

Texans +3
Texans over 40 confidence
Bengals pickem
49ers over 43
Bears over 42.5

GWAE:

Jets +3.5
Redskins -7.5
Jaguars +4.5
Browns +6 conf
Chiefs -5.5

Aluisio:

Broncos -1.5
Vikings -6
Cowboys +4.5
Steelers -6
Packers -3

JoelDeze:

Steelers-6, confidence
Vikings -6
Bills -3.5
Bills/Jets OVER 42.5
Cardinals -6.5

Paradigm:

Raiders +1.5 (confidence)
Packers -3
Redskins -7.5
Seahawks -9.5
Chiefs -5.5

SM777:

Browns +6
Cowboys +4.5
Rams +6.5
Raiders +1.5
Saints UNDER 56.5

FourFiveFace:

Lions +3
Bears +6-Confidence
Saints +7
Dolphins +9.5
Chargers +5.5

JML24:

Bengals PK-Confidence
Colts -4.5
Dolphins +9.5
Cardinals -6.5
Chargers +5.5

BeachBumBabs:

Vikings -6
Lions +3 -confidence
Saints +7
Cardinals -6.5
Chiefs -5.5

10DollarBri:

Texans +3
Cowboys +4.5
Dolphins +9.5
Rams +6.5
Broncos -1.5

Wizard:

Titans -3
Panthers +4.5
Raiders vs. Broncos Over 40.5
Bills Over 42.5
Bears Under 42.5

Miplet:

Titans -3
Ravens PK-confidence
Panthers +4.5
Browns +6
Chargers +5.5

Scottimus1:

Bills (-3.5)
Giants (+7.5)
Packers (-3)
Panthers Over 46 CONFIDENCE
Raiders (+1.5)

Worthy of note, Scottimus1 and Wizard share ZERO Picks.

Yep of course, need to go 1-5 for average prize and it looks like I am going to go 6-0

Quote: GWAE

Yep of course, need to go 1-5 for average prize and it looks like I am going to go 6-0

Right there with ya. I really wanted to lose my confidence pick, to have a decent chance of the Most Average prize, and of course I win this pick. Sigh...

Quote: beachbumbabs

...Good luck to.all. And nice job, Paradigm and wudged! I haven't managed a 6-0 yet this year.

With one game to go you still have a shot to do so!

I've never thought so much about picks since the last time I was a possibility to win week 17. Here is what I wrote to Mission as I submitted my picks, not that he would care:

Quote: wiz

Here are my picks:

Titans -3
Panthers +4.5
Raiders vs. Broncos Over 40.5
Bills @ Jets Over 42.5
Bears @ Vikings Under 42.5

------------

Let me tell you my reasons, for the record. Permission granted to quote this.

Scottimus1 I think is the only one who can catch me. I calculated that if we each flipped coins for our picks, I would have a 95.6% chance of winning. However, I hate to do that. If I were in the shoes of Scottimus1, I would try to predict what I would pick and do the opposite. In terms of game theory, his best chance is to swing me. I'm going to give him a little chance to do that, just to be sporty. Plus, a couple of these picks are too sweet to not take. Plus, he may think I think he will pick the opposites, in which case he may pick the good side, in which case I'll get him on reverse psychology. To make a long story short, I'm going to make two classic Wizard picks and the rest are educated coin flips.

To comment on each game:

Titans -3: I can't help but pick this one. The market has the Titans at -4. To get the half off of 3, plus another off of 4, is hard to refuse. After considering they are a favorite, it is worth 22.5 basis points.

Panthers +4.5: Again, hard to say no to. I'm getting a full point off of 4 plus it's an underdog. Worth 19 basis points.

Raiders vs. Broncos Over 40.5. : All the over/unders are pretty much coin flips to thwart ScottImus. I put the mean points for this game at 45.7. So taking over 40.5 sounds sweet.

Bills @ Jets Over 42.5 : I put the mean points scored at 46.0. Taking over 42.5 is the second largest margin between the line and my estimate this week.

Bears @ Vikings Under 42.5: I struggled with the final pick. I wanted to pick an under and this was the best one. I put the mean points scored 40.55. Getting under 42.5 is not a big margin, but at least it is an under, which is the sharper side in general.

So, there you have it. If only I had not taken my bye week I could have sat this out and sweated it. If I lose because ScottImus swings me, I'm going to be very mad at myself. If I lose due to bad luck I'll be able to take it.

May the better player win.

In retrospect, I'm kicking myself for those over/under picks, which went 0-3, polluting my record. Of course, I'd be patting myself on the back if they went the other way. I think educated randomizing my picks was not a bad decision and think I just got unlucky with them. I also know that my record with this method of handicapping has been awful.

I'd like to congratulate Scottimus1 on a hard-fought ending and sticking to what I can only assume were his heart-felt picks. Thanks Mission, once again, for organizing this.

I needed a miracle to catch Playyourcardsright for You Suck and didn't come close. Well played Play.

Week 17 Unofficial Results

Zourah (4-2)
Titans -3 (win)
Buccaneers -4.5 (loss)
Rams UNDER 40.5 (loss)
Saints +7 (win)
Chiefs OVER 44.5 CONFIDENCE (win)

Wudged (4-2)
Broncos -1.5 (win)
Jaguars +4.5-Confidence (win)
Seahawks -9.5 (loss)
Jets +3.5 (win)
Charges +5.5 (loss)

SOOPOO (3-3)
Bills -3.5 Confidence (loss)
Saints +7 (win)
Giants +7.5 (win)
Dolphins +9.5 (loss)
Broncos -1.5 (win)

OdiousGambit (4-1)
Bengals (PK) (win)
Browns +6 (win)
Jaguars +4.5 (win)
49ers +9.5 (win)
Rams +6.5 (loss)

AyeCarumba (4-2)
49ers +9.5 - CONFIDENCE (win)
Browns +6 (win)
Bengals PK (win)
Lions +3 (loss)
Raiders - OVER 40.5 (loss)

EdCollins (3-3)
Patriots -9.5 (confidence) (win)
Chargers +5.5 (loss)
Saints/Falcons Over 56.5 (win)
Cowboys +4.5 (loss)
Bucs -4.5 (loss)

JohnnyQ (2-3)
Jets (+3.5) (win)
Colts (-4.5) (loss)
Rams (+6.5) (loss)
Chargers (+5.5) (loss)
Broncos (-1.5) (win)

Terapined (1-5)
Ravens pk (loss)
Giants +6.5 (win)
Bucs -4.5 (loss)
Dolphins +9.5 (loss)
Bucs over confidence (loss)

GenWyzgy (5-0)
Jets +3.5 (win)
Giants +7.5 (win)
Packers -3 (win)
Panthers +4.5 (win)
Lions OVER 49.5 (win)

JW17 (4-2)
Broncos (-1.5) (win)
Browns (+6) confidence (win)
Jets (+3.5) (win)
Redskins (-7.5) (loss)
Chargers (+5.5) (loss)

JohnZimbo (5-1)
Texans +3 (loss)
Texans over 40 confidence (win)
Bengals pickem (win)
49ers over 43 (win)
Bears over 42.5 (win)

GWAE (5-1)
Jets +3.5 (win)
Redskins -7.5 (loss)
Jaguars +4.5 (win)
Browns +6 conf (win)
Chiefs -5.5 (win)

Aluisio (3-2)
Broncos -1.5 (win)
Vikings -6 (win)
Cowboys +4.5 (loss)
Steelers -6 (loss)
Packers -3 (win)

JoelDeze (2-4)
Steelers-6, confidence (loss)
Vikings -6 (win)
Bills -3.5 (loss)
Bills/Jets OVER 42.5 (loss)
Cardinals -6.5 (win)

Paradigm (2-4)
Raiders +1.5 (confidence) (loss)
Packers -3 (win)
Redskins -7.5 (loss)
Seahawks -9.5 (loss)
Chiefs -5.5 (win)

SM777 (1-4)
Browns +6 (win)
Cowboys +4.5 (loss)
Rams +6.5 (loss)
Raiders +1.5 (loss)
Saints UNDER 56.5 (loss)

FourFiveFace (1-5)
Lions +3 (loss)
Bears +6-Confidence (loss)
Saints +7 (win)
Dolphins +9.5 (loss)
Chargers +5.5 (loss)

JML24 (3-3)
Bengals PK-Confidence (win)
Colts -4.5 (loss)
Dolphins +9.5 (loss)
Cardinals -6.5 (win)
Chargers +5.5 (loss)

BeachBumBabs (4-2)
Vikings -6 (win)
Lions +3 -confidence (loss)
Saints +7 (win)
Cardinals -6.5 (win)
Chiefs -5.5 (win)

10DollarBri (1-4)
Texans +3 (loss)
Cowboys +4.5 (loss)
Dolphins +9.5 (loss)
Rams +6.5 (loss)
Broncos -1.5 (win)

Wizard (2-3)
Titans -3 (win)
Panthers +4.5 (win)
Raiders vs. Broncos Over 40.5 (loss)
Bills Over 42.5 (loss)
Bears Under 42.5 (loss)

Miplet (3-3)
Titans -3 (win)
Ravens PK-confidence (loss)
Panthers +4.5 (win)
Browns +6 (win)
Chargers +5.5 (loss)

Scottimus1 (2-4)
Bills (-3.5) (loss)
Giants (+7.5) (win)
Packers (-3) (win)
Panthers Over 46 CONFIDENCE (loss)
Raiders (+1.5) (loss)

Name	Wins	Losses	%
Wizard	52	30	63.41%
Scottimus1	57	38	60.00%
Mission146	43	33	56.58%
10DollarBri	44	36	55.00%
JoelDeze	55	45	55.00%
OdiousGambit	44	36	55.00%
BeachBumBabs	55	46	54.46%
SOOPOO	50	42	54.35%
GWAE	54	46	54.00%
Wudged	48	42	53.33%
AyeCarumba	49	43	53.26%
Paradigm	50	44	53.19%
FourFiveFace	51	45	53.13%
JML24	44	39	53.01%
Aluisio	45	40	52.94%
Terapined	41	38	51.90%
EdCollins	45	43	51.14%
GenWyzgy	47	46	50.54%
SM777	42	45	48.28%
Rainman	40	43	48.19%
RDW4POTUS	33	36	47.83%
Miplet	41	45	47.67%
JohnnyQ	38	42	47.50%
TheoHuxtable	39	45	46.43%
Zourah	39	48	44.83%
JW17	42	52	44.68%
WizardofNothing	41	52	44.09%
JohnZimbo	40	52	43.48%
MidwestAP	27	37	42.19%
PlayYourCardsRight	33	53	38.37%
Totals	1,329	1,282	50.90%

Record of Skipped Weeks:
(players listed alphabetically)

100DollarBri: Week 8
Aluisio: Week 1, Week 12
JML24: Week 7
JW17: Week 13
MidwestAP: Week 6, Week 14, Week 16, Week 17
Miplet: Week 3
Mission146: Week 17
PlayYourCardsRight: Week 17
Rainman: Week 7, Week 16, Week 17
RDW4POTUS: Week 10, Week 16, Week 17
SM777: Week 8
Terapined: Week 2
TheoHuxtable: Week 2, Week 17
Wizard: Week 14
WizardofNothing: Week 17
Wudged: Week 7

Wow, that was exciting. The Most Average Prize came down to the very last game. A low scoring Lion cover would have given me this prize. Despite my 25% chances going in, for much of the game I was happy with the way things were going!

Note: The final, win-loss season totals listed above reflect NO forfeit weeks for anyone!

Reason: I didn't see the point of adding yet another 0-5 forfeit week to MidwestAP, and to RDW4POTUS, and to TheHuxtable, and to Rainman, etc. This way, without the 0-5 forfeits listed for everyone, these final season totals reflect everyone's ACTUAL picks made throughout the year. (The record of Skipped Weeks continue to indicate who skipped which week.)

As a group, our Regular Picks were 1,041 wins against 1,018 losses. Confidence Picks were 144 wins against 132 losses. (Of course, these win-loss totals are somewhat meaningless as some players were trying to pick losses during the contest.)

Unofficial Winners

1st Place ($815): Wizard
Most Average ($125): GenWyzgy
You Suck ($125): PlayYourCardsRight

Congrats to the winners!

Thanks again to Mission, for all of his hosting work.

Quote: EdCollins

Wow, that was exciting. The Most Average Prize came down to the very last game. A low scoring Lion cover would have given me this prize. Despite my 25% chances going in, for much of the game I was happy with the way things were going!

Note: The final, win-loss season totals listed above reflect NO forfeit weeks for anyone!

Reason: I didn't see the point of adding yet another 0-5 forfeit week to MidwestAP, and to RDW4POTUS, and to TheHuxtable, and to Rainman, etc. This way, without the 0-5 forfeits listed for everyone, these final season totals reflect everyone's ACTUAL picks made throughout the year. (The record of Skipped Weeks continue to indicate who skipped which week.)

As a group, our Regular Picks were 1,040 wins against 1,019 losses. Confidence Picks were 144 wins against 132 losses. (Of course, these win-loss totals are somewhat meaningless as some players were trying to pick losses during the contest.)

Unofficial Winners

1st Place ($815): Wizard
Most Average ($125): GenWyzgy
You Suck ($125): PlayYourCardsRight

Congrats to the winners!

Thanks again to Mission, for all of his hosting work.

Umm . . . the Lions hit a last second Hail Mary, so I ended up going 5-0 for the week. I don't know what that winds up doing for the most average winner!

Quote: Johnzimbo

I needed a miracle to catch Playyourcardsright for You Suck and didn't come close. Well played Play.

Thanks. You needed 0 and 6 of it skipped, so I figured if you did that you earned it.

Quote: GenWyzgy

Umm . . . the Lions hit a last second Hail Mary, so I ended up going 5-0 for the week. I don't know what that winds up doing for the most average winner!

Yes, I updated everything as soon as I saw that score.

GenWyzgy, you were gold as long as Green Bay covered, OR if the game went over.

Thanks everyone, for the contest.

Quote: EdCollins

GenWyzgy, you were gold as long as Green Bay covered, OR if the game went over.

But, unfortunately in so many ways, I'm a lifelong Detroit Lions fan! Oh well the $125 bucks will help ease the pain of yet another loss to the Packers!

Quote: GenWyzgy

But, unfortunately in so many ways, I'm a lifelong Detroit Lions fan! Oh well the $125 bucks will help ease the pain of yet another loss to the Packers!

Hey, I'm a lifelong Lions fan too! What will help to ease my pain?

:)

Congrats to all the winners. Who saw genwyzy coming? Not me! I'm very pleased to place well, and above miplet. Made the contest almost a free roll for me.

I also appreciate the sportsmanlike conduct from everybody on the last week's discussion. I'll be back next year. Heck, maybe I can even take the playoff prize. Yeah, dream on....

I may have to dump the confidence picks, though. I truly suck at them.

Thanks again Mission for hosting it! It was such a fun game as usual...
Are we having the playoff contest this year as well??

Thanks to Mission & Ed for all their hard work in creating 17 weeks of great entertainment for us.

Ed, any chance you can update that cumulative/all seasons scoreboard? It should ease Wiz's pain this week as I believe it is once again going to prove over the long haul, the Wiz knows his NFL Handicapping. Plus fun to see where everyone falls over multiple seasons.

Thanks again to both of you!!

Quote: Paradigm

Thanks to Mission & Ed for all their hard work in creating 17 weeks of great entertainment for us.

Thanks again to both of you!!

Agreed 1000 100 % !

Quote: Paradigm

Thanks to Mission & Ed for all their hard work in creating 17 weeks of great entertainment for us.

Congratulations to the victors! And thanks again to Mission and Ed for doing the heavy lifting. Also, thanks to WoN for sponsoring the big prize, and Mission for sponsoring the bonuses. I look forward to participating each year.

Quote: Paradigm

Ed, any chance you can update that cumulative/all seasons scoreboard?...

Which cumulative/all seasons scoreboard????

I suspect someone else has a copy of that, and put that together. I don't believe I have a working copy or a record of past seasons. I don't recall putting anything like that together myself. I've only helped out with the weekly scoring these past four years now, as I recall.

(I suspect it wouldn't be TOO hard to put a past seasons scoreboard together. It would just mean a lot of digging through forum messages from years past. But if someone did it as recently as last year, that would simplify matters.)

I'll have to dig that post up...someone had that and posted the results before the current season...or I was just imagining things...thought you would have been the keeper of that but maybe it was Mission.

Quote: EdCollins

Hey, I'm a lifelong Lions fan too! What will help to ease my pain?

:)

A shocking playoff win over the Seahawks? Hey, if the Cubs can win the series, you never know . . .

Quote: GenWyzgy

Quote: EdCollins

Hey, I'm a lifelong Lions fan too! What will help to ease my pain?

:)

A shocking playoff win over the Seahawks? Hey, if the Cubs can win the series, you never know . . .

Too bad for megatron. Retires early and now his team has a chance.

First of all, congratulations to Mike for winning the contest. As opposed to dummies like me who try and find something 'football' to make a pick based on (The Bills are a running team and the Jets aren't good against the run, pick the Bills), Mike uses his numerical analyses to make his selections. But many times he uses the 'stale lines' that exist because Mission posts the lines days before the games, and in actuality would not be able to get a bet down with those lines. So my question for Mike is.....
Other than the 1/2 point parley cards, do you routinely bet on NFL games? If so, what is your record?

Quote: SOOPOO

But many times he uses the 'stale lines' that exist because Mission posts the lines days before the games, and in actuality would not be able to get a bet down with those lines.

That is a good point but the lines are only stale in the context of the contest. Anybody who wants to can bet on the lines which I believe go up as early as Tuesday morning and if they made their bet then, they didn't bet on a stale line. If a contestant used the line movements to make his decision, figuring that the later lines were more accurate, then he may have had an advantage compared to the everyday bettor who doesn't have that option, or compared to a contestant who didn't use that info. But if a contestant didn't use the line movements to make their decision then it's fair to say that they may not have had any advantage at all because they also may have bet into a line that was worse than what a non contestant could have gotten by waiting. So, whether or not a contestant used the line movement info may suggest how accurately his stats reflect his true ability. Since many contestants are experienced and savvy bettors I think it's fair to assume that many did use line movement info to make their decisions. I'm writing a lot here for somebody who wasn't even in the contest but that's what happens to a person when they get old and bored and have too much time on their hands.

Quote: Wizard

I've never thought so much about picks since the last time I was a possibility to win week 17. Here is what I wrote to Mission as I submitted my picks, not that he would care:

In retrospect, I'm kicking myself for those over/under picks, which went 0-3, polluting my record. Of course, I'd be patting myself on the back if they went the other way. I think educated randomizing my picks was not a bad decision and think I just got unlucky with them. I also know that my record with this method of handicapping has been awful.

I'd like to congratulate Scottimus1 on a hard-fought ending and sticking to what I can only assume were his heart-felt picks. Thanks Mission, once again, for organizing this.

It's not that I didn't care, it's actually that I never saw that part of your PM, I'm always interested in your strategies for stuff like this because I can generally assume they are better than mine, or what mine would have been. There were dashes (that I assume you added after your picks, I just looked at the PM again) and I just thought those were separating the Picks Reminder PM from your actual Picks.

My personal strategy would have been to do my best to guess was Scottimus1 was going to do with his Picks, and otherwise, just not make Picks that I considered awful.

If I were thinking as you, I would say that Scottimus1 is going to go with O/U's because he DOESN'T want to duplicate me as duplicated Picks are good for me and bad for him. I would have assumed Scottimus1 would go either with all O/U's or mostly O/U's because you don't pick those generally and he wants to avoid duplicating you. Of course, having no insight into what specific O/U's that Scottimus1 would Pick, and no educated guesses in that respect, I would have just picked the five O/U's that I considered to be the best. After all, at the end of the day, I only need to win two or three Picks.

You're welcome, of course! I don't want to pat myself on the back too hard for coming up with this contest, but it is definitely my favorite Forum-Related thing to do!

Quote: EdCollins

Wow, that was exciting. The Most Average Prize came down to the very last game. A low scoring Lion cover would have given me this prize. Despite my 25% chances going in, for much of the game I was happy with the way things were going!

As a group, our Regular Picks were 1,041 wins against 1,018 losses. Confidence Picks were 144 wins against 132 losses. (Of course, these win-loss totals are somewhat meaningless as some players were trying to pick losses during the contest.)

Unofficial Winners

1st Place ($815): Wizard
Most Average ($125): GenWyzgy
You Suck ($125): PlayYourCardsRight

Congrats to the winners!

Thanks again to Mission, for all of his hosting work.

I was watching that one with some interest for exactly that reason, in fact, I tried to come up with all of the possible, 'Most Average,' scenarios during the 1p.m. games and ultimately gave up on it. I'm sure you could have written a program for that in the time that I spent ATTEMPTING to do it by hand. ;)

It's always tough to gauge the effects of going for losses for the season given the strategy to intentionally tank the last week (or, perhaps, even the final few) for consolation prize reasons. That would apply to both this year and last year. There's also a certain question of actual success in doing so, just as many players (myself included) are often unsuccessful when trying to pick WINNING Picks. Picking losing Picks, after all, is just Picking winning Picks in reverse.

It would take some work, but I suppose one way to do it would be if players were to declare (perhaps via PM) whether or not they are attempting to Win or Lose (overall) in a given week. I don't think that the benefit of having a more intention-accurate overall record (if someone wants losers, then look at losses as wins for purposes of the overall record) is really worth the time cost associated with figuring it all out.

Maybe if we had some insight as to what week the players at the bottom starting TRYING to lose, then that would give us a better inkling of what our actual overall record was, but that can also be a difficult question to answer. For example, I might start trying to Pick losses in Week 12 if I am in dead last, but then go 5-1 or something like that, suddenly I am trying to WIN to work my way up to, 'Most Average.'

Probably best to write off overall, 'Team,' record as meaningless, or perhaps just to look at the first ten-twelve weeks, when it can probably be assumed that players are all trying to win.

Quote: Paradigm

I'll have to dig that post up...someone had that and posted the results before the current season...or I was just imagining things...thought you would have been the keeper of that but maybe it was Mission.

I recall such a post existing and may look for it, but I was certainly not the one that compiled that data.

Quote: lilredrooster

That is a good point but the lines are only stale in the context of the contest...

As I recall, the first year of this contest, which I believe would have been the 2012 NFL Season, Wizard specifically stated that playing the Line movements of the time of posting vs. when the Picks needed to be in was specifically his strategy. I suspect that may have been part (if not all) of his strategy this year as evidenced by his most recent posts, as well as the number of Picks Wizard and I had in common. I don't have an exact percentage on that, but the two of us seemed to share more Picks that I believe I shared with most others players this year. I could go back and look, but you know, cost/benefit.

I usually played the Line move game if I didn't dislike the original Line to begin with. I may have even went against the Line move once or twice, but I don't remember how specifically those Picks went or when I did it. I didn't make a Pick if I would have outwardly disliked the posted Line in the first place, of course.

GREETINGS!

It seems that we have a number of matters to address:

CONGRATULATIONS!

First of all, I want to congratulate the Wizard for, what I believe, is his third or fourth win as long as this contest has taken place. I want to say that this is his third win.

I'm actually thinking of having an, 'Unless,' prize. How that would work is that the contest will be Winner Take All, UNLESS the Wizard wins, in which event the prize pool gets split between the Wizard and whoever is in second place. I think I'm kidding, perhaps not kidding if Wizard wins next year, but we'll see...(Again, kidding)

I want to thank our Most Average player, GenWyzgy. What is perhaps most impressive about his win in this regard is that it took perfection in the final week (5-0), as well as coming down to the final (NFL) game of the season, for GenWyzgy to emerge as our most mundane player. Quite the irony!

That's why the consolation prizes exist of course.

Finally, congratulations to our most abysmal player, PlayYourCardsWRONG! Not only do you positively suck at picking games, but you are the only player with a percentage worse than .400. May God have mercy on your soul, but until then, I have $125 for you!

All winners will receive a PM later this evening with details regarding payment.

PLAYOFF CONTEST

We will be having the Playoff Contest again this year. I will be posting a related thread later and sending invites to everyone who participated in this game and most people who participated in this thread. I will have to look at the game from last year, I recallt that I liked the Rules/Format, but we'll see if I make any tweaks to it.

THANK YOUS!

I would like to thank everyone who played in this game, as well as anyone who considered playing. I would like to thank EdCollins for tracking and posting the weekly results! If you would like to re-check your results, feel free to do so, but I am convinced everything is correct.

Finally, I would like to thank WizardofNothing for his generous donation that convinced me to step up my donation game in general, and furthermore, make the Consolation Prizes good for a meaningful amount. It is definitely more fun when the Consolation Prizes are 6.25x the Entry Fee.

RULE CHANGES

The only meaningful Rule Change I have for next year is that an improper set of Picks, which means failure to Pick five unique games with none of them being a Confidence Pick, or four unique games as regular Picks AND one Confidence Pick (total of five Picks, either way) will automatically result in the Skip Week being used for that week, if available.

I have decided that an 0-5 record for failing to make a correct set of Picks (after using a Skip Week) is a little much, so if someone fails to present a proper set of Picks after using his/her Skip Week (but does make Picks) then that player will be DISQUALIFIED from winning anything other than the top prize and ALL erroneous Picks (or duplicated Picks) will be graded as losses.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me that such verbiage would disqualify a player who attempts to engage in, 'Gamesmanship,' with respect to consolation prizes AND it would make it useless for someone in the lead to make offsetting Picks.

For instance, if a Line was Bills +23 @ Patriots -23 O/U 117, and a player picked:

Bills +23
Patriots -23
Patriots OVER 117
Patriots UNDER 117
Falcons +4

The four non-unique Picks would ALL count as losses while the Falcons game could either win or lose.

If you have any Rule change suggestions, please feel free to state them in this thread or PM me.

The rule change sounds fine to me Mission. I don't know if you want to keep doing default picks, as the growing number of participants could make it unwieldy, but it is up to you. Also, it was previously suggested that default pick criteria could only be submitted after the Skip week was applied. I don' t know how you feel about that too.

I want to publicly acknowledge Miplet's quick and complete settlement of our side bet based on this year's game. Thanks!

Quote: Ayecarumba

The rule change sounds fine to me Mission. I don't know if you want to keep doing default picks, as the growing number of participants could make it unwieldy, but it is up to you. Also, it was previously suggested that default pick criteria could only be submitted after the Skip week was applied. I don' t know how you feel about that too.

I want to publicly acknowledge Miplet's quick and complete settlement of our side bet based on this year's game. Thanks!

I would agree that default picks should be eliminated. Seems like every week Mission had to spend time looking to see if someone had them.

With respect to default Picks, I'm not particularly in favor of eliminating them entirely, though I am in favor of making the first instance of missed Picks being a Skip Week.

I'm also thinking I'm going to request Default strategies at the beginning of the season so that I can get them all in one place. Even if everyone has them, it won't be too onerous to put them in as I am posting the Picks. The problem this year were Default picks being sent at different times and ending up pages apart in my Inbox. It was easier to just look at affected players as they came up rather than put them all together.

Quote: EdCollins

Week 17 Unofficial Results

Name	Wins	Losses	%
Wizard	52	30	63.41%
Scottimus1	57	38	60.00%
Mission146	43	33	56.58%
10DollarBri	44	36	55.00%
JoelDeze	55	45	55.00%
OdiousGambit	44	36	55.00%
BeachBumBabs	55	46	54.46%
SOOPOO	50	42	54.35%
GWAE	54	46	54.00%
Wudged	48	42	53.33%
AyeCarumba	49	43	53.26%
Paradigm	50	44	53.19%
FourFiveFace	51	45	53.13%
JML24	44	39	53.01%
Aluisio	45	40	52.94%
Terapined	41	38	51.90%
EdCollins	45	43	51.14%
GenWyzgy	47	46	50.54%
SM777	42	45	48.28%
Rainman	40	43	48.19%
RDW4POTUS	33	36	47.83%
Miplet	41	45	47.67%
JohnnyQ	38	42	47.50%
TheoHuxtable	39	45	46.43%
Zourah	39	48	44.83%
JW17	42	52	44.68%
WizardofNothing	41	52	44.09%
JohnZimbo	40	52	43.48%
MidwestAP	27	37	42.19%
PlayYourCardsRight	33	53	38.37%
Totals	1,329	1,282	50.90%

Record of Skipped Weeks:
(players listed alphabetically)

100DollarBri: Week 8
Aluisio: Week 1, Week 12
JML24: Week 7
JW17: Week 13
MidwestAP: Week 6, Week 14, Week 16, Week 17
Miplet: Week 3
Mission146: Week 17
PlayYourCardsRight: Week 17
Rainman: Week 7, Week 16, Week 17
RDW4POTUS: Week 10, Week 16, Week 17
SM777: Week 8
Terapined: Week 2
TheoHuxtable: Week 2, Week 17
Wizard: Week 14
WizardofNothing: Week 17
Wudged: Week 7

Wizard, I just took a look at this thread. I havent been on for a while. Your picks ATS are very impressive. 52-30 for the season is excellent. Sorry if you already have discussed this, but how do you make your picks? You should start a handicapping service. I dont think there are handicappers that come close to that record.

Quote: SOOPOO

Other than the 1/2 point parley cards, do you routinely bet on NFL games? If so, what is your record?

No. I almost never make a straight bet in the NFL. The only time I just might is to get my parking validated at Binions. If I had the bankroll, I would take betting sports against the spread more seriously. I think there are advantages to be found without handicapping but it takes a lot of money and time to make a little money.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Wizard, I just took a look at this thread. I havent been on for a while. Your picks ATS are very impressive. 52-30 for the season is excellent. Sorry if you already have discussed this, but how do you make your picks? You should start a handicapping service. I dont think there are handicappers that come close to that record.

Thanks. I've discussed this many times but the short answer is I use the same technique as the half-point parlay cards, I exploit stale lines. In both, I can effectively go back in time and get a number no longer available.

No way would I offer a tout service. In my opinion, at least 90% of touts are running a scam. I would be too if I said my picks were any good. Remember, a pick is no good if you can't get the line.

Quote: Wizard

Thanks. I've discussed this many times but the short answer is I use the same technique as the half-point parlay cards, I exploit stale lines. In both, I can effectively go back in time and get a number no longer available.

No way would I offer a tout service. In my opinion, at least 90% of touts are running a scam. I would be too if I said my picks were any good. Remember, a pick is no good if you can't get the line.

Well, apparently, your system absolutely works. No one goes 52-30 and it being just a coincidence. What were your records the previous years which I believe they said you won?

Quote: Ayecarumba

I want to publicly acknowledge Miplet's quick and complete settlement of our side bet based on this year's game.

I too would like to acknowledge miplet's quick payment.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Well, apparently, your system absolutely works. No one goes 52-30 and it being just a coincidence. What were your records the previous years which I believe they said you won?

Last year I won. My record was 49-34 (Wizard finished 10th, with 51 wins and 47 losses.)

Wizard won in 2014 with a 56-24 record.

AyeCaramba won in 2013 with a 51-36 record. (Wizard finished 10th with 51 wins and 43 losses.)

Wizard won in 2012 with a record of 62-25.

Quote: EdCollins

Last year I won. My record was 49-34 (Wizard finished 10th, with 51 wins and 47 losses.)

Wizard won in 2014 with a 56-24 record.

AyeCaramba won in 2013 with a 51-36 record. (Wizard finished 10th with 51 wins and 43 losses.)

Wizard won in 2012 with a record of 62-25.

Thanks! I was meaning to nag Mission for that information. Here is my record to date:

Year	Win	Loss	Total
2016	52	30	63.4%
2015	51	47	52.0%
2014	56	24	70.0%
2013	51	43	54.3%
2012	62	25	71.3%
Total	272	169	61.7%

Thanks! Impressive, for sure.

If anyone wants to make this a 10 dollar entry for for the playoff contest I will add 100 to the pool

Quote: Wizardofnothing

If anyone wants to make this a 10 dollar entry for for the playoff contest I will add 100 to the pool

That's definitely appreciated, and you could orchestrate anything you like regarding entries, but I will not be managing or handling Playoff Pool entry fees. The Playoff Picks game, traditionally, is just a game in which I make a donation for the sake of the game.