Yeah, I do get the desire to shift gears as the MLB tide turns. My choice has been to just fold my tent, close my wallet, and call it done when my MLB wagers begin doing their usual mid-season fizzle-out. But I have fewer plays to start with than what you generate, and I just expect to make it a half-season game.Quote: steeldcoI hear ya. It's just that the pattern to +130dogs has shown that they suck for about 45 days at this time of the year. So my choice was not to play the game at all, or to flip to the other side. I chose to take the other side, but just for single units, in order to test whether these would be profitable. The dawgs come back around mid-July. Nothing new. I had stated that this is what I was going to do at the very beginning of the season.
For me, that's just because I feel I have no particular competence or well developed methodology that I'd trust with actual money for ferreting out which favorites are actually not chalky enough in this wacky old game. I'm personally so used to an approach that's partly based on making a friend and part-time business partner out of the random bounces that routinely drive the athletes playing this beautiful game nuts. But I believe I can easily understand your general desire to keep going by changing direction instead.
I use nothing more complex than a spreadsheet for myself, but even so there's been enough overlap in some of the output that I could imagine I had a bit of a rough 'feel' for some of what might be going into parts of your algorithm. I can't picture you wanting to simply fade your own program during the annual trip through the wagering Bermuda Triangle near the all-star break, so when the kind of target you're shooting at gets further outside my own experience I find it harder to imagineer & guesstimate how your strategery starts hitting to the opposite field, so to speak. Of course, I wouldn't for a minute expect that I'm supposed to know how you've done your work on it. Understood, so no need to politely explain that you won't be getting into that.
Nationals +100
Marlins +100
White Sox -700
Yankees -100
Blue Jays +728
Pirates -172
Astros +100
Rangers +107
Yesterday's results: +163
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +7
Favorites +100
Focus Picks +28
dogflips +28
YTD Total +20,749
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs -460
Favorites +189
Focus Picks +11,529
dogflips +55
Pirates 101
Yankees -144 dogflip
Blue Jays 113
Rangers 104
Braves 126 FOCUS 7X's
Indians 108
Pirates 0
Yankees +100
Blue Jays -100
Rangers +104
Braves -700
Indians +108
Yesterday's results: -488
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +112
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -700
dogflips +100
YTD Total +20,261
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs -348
Favorites +189
Focus Picks +10,829
dogflips +155
Mets 101
Yankees -154 DOGFLIP
Reds 148
Tigers 113
Rangers 102
Braves 142 FOCUS 7X's
Indians 107 FOCUS 7X's
Giants 112 FOCUS 7X's
Mets -100
Yankees +100
Reds +148
Tigers +113
Rangers +102
Braves -700
Indians -700
Giants -700
Yesterday's results: -1,737
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +263
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -2,100
dogflips 100
YTD Total +18,524
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs -85
Favorites +189
Focus Picks +8,729
dogflips +255
Quote: DrawingDeadYikes, you really are stepping out into a different looking model now. As I'm sure you already know, those flippin' dogs you've now ordered to go stand on their heads are some heavy favorites by MLB standards. This will be interesting for me to watch, just as a spectator, because I'm now a stranger shipwrecked in a foreign land with no clue what language is being spoken to summon these newfangled gymnastic pooches wearing big minus signs. I don't think I've played a moneyline favorite in baseball in at least two years, or if I did in some special case it was surely something no more chalky than about -110. Good luck.
So DrawingDead, ye of so little faith, the dogflips haven't lost yet. They are 6 and 2. Of course now that I have said this, the sports gods will strike me down with a losing day today..............
Blue Jays 124 FOCUS 7X's
Pirates 125
Yankees -176 DOGFLIP
Orioles -150 DOGFLIP
Cardinals -171 DOGFLIP
Rangers -141 DOGFLIP
Marlins -101
Nationals -150 DOGFLIP
Mariners -105
Quote: steeldcodogflips haven't lost yet.
Quote: JoemanI'm not a sports bettor (yet!), but I do enjoy following your thread/picks. Continued luck with your strategy!
LOL.....the video is great. Thanks Joeman!!
Ah, but I came on this morning to say "nice start for the new experiment." Very small sample size obviously, but also the small absolute numbers in your 'flips' category might mask the high ROI to someone just casually glancing at the running totals.Quote: steeldcoSo DrawingDead, ye of so little faith, the dogflips haven't lost yet. They are 6 and 2. Of course now that I have said this, the sports gods will strike me down with a losing day today..............
I'm not a big faith guy, having little to spare for my own money let alone yours. But if it sounded like I was trying to talk you off this, that isn't something I meant to imply, I wasn't. I have no opinion on whether it is a good idea for your thing or not. It is just more different from what I'm familiar with doing than your other wagers. I have plenty of faith that you ought to do what you do your way, not mine or Tom, Dick, or Harriet's. And that I should find it interesting to watch as long as you do and post it. I'm the guy who was a stubborn skeptic about that newly constructed Big Blue Baseball Machine of the North of Chicago, so no reason anyone should pay me much mind. D. Dead says keep printing your money any which way, and I believe bettors with winning tickets have bought the right to gloat a bit in some way, and should.
I don't know how relevant it is for you, but you may have noted that this has been a different kind of MLB wagering year in the first few months (through about 5/25 - though not so much or so clearly to me very recently in the last few weeks). For example some broad general splits are way different than usual: home vs. road (home performing significantly weaker at just about 50% winners in that early period); overall favorites vs. dogs (favorites doing better than other years for 1.5+ months); and bigger odds differentials, with +200s occurring more often, even some +300s including some huge ones like the +400/-500 ATL/LAD game recently. I don't recall when I've ever seen a +400 MLB moneyline. Anomalous things like that put me in a cautious mood about everything in MLB to this point.
But if the sportsbook deities do try to electrocute you, I think it will be more for the sin of firstly thinking of wagering days as +/- events rather than the percentages of money wagered without regard to day vs. day they happen to be clumped into.
I'm a big believer in trends, pattersn, relativity, yada, yada, yada. The trend I found was that the dogs (my +130dogs specifically) did poorly for a 45 day, or so, period at this time every year. I am trying to take advantage of that pattern.
Here's the other thing that I am eyeballing. The worst performing team, so far this year, as a +130dog, has been the Cincinnati Reds. Last year the worst performing team was the Philadelphia Phillies. I am currently focused on this since, If I can ascertain whether there is a way to determine and stay away from the worst performer then I increase my profitability tremendously. Interestingly enough the Cincinnati Reds of this year have lost nearly twice as much as the Phillies of the entire year last year. My gut tells me that the Reds will be net winners when the wagering on +130dogs resumes.
You might remember we had several past exchanges before this year about that shift or anomaly that occurs around the all-star break, which for year after year now has caused me to shut down my own regular MLB play when that time comes around. One can speculate on some real fundamental baseball reasons which could possibly contribute to that happening so consistently without getting all Madame Fatima, but whatever it is, it is "a thing." Personally I have no real conclusions on exactly why, only a desire to not stand in the way of it and get run over. If I thought I really knew the "why" I'd be more likely to try to play through it instead of stopping. Good luck switch-hitting instead.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if you end up being right about Cincy. Things change on the field, and things change in the money flow & then the betting lines, and some changes don't get accounted for in a timely way & some others overshoot the mark.
Blue Jays +868
Pirates -100
Yankees +100
Orioles +100
Cardinals +100
Rangers -141
Marlins -101
Nationals +100
Mariners +100
Yesterday's results: +1,026
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -100
Favorites -1
Focus Picks +868
dogflips +259
YTD Total +19,550
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs -185
Favorites +188
Focus Picks +9,597
dogflips +514
Rangers 106
Pirates -103
Yankees -144 DOGFLIP
Blue Jays -148 DOGFLIP
Cardinals -167 DOGFLIP
White Sox 113
Marlins 121
Indians 124
Quote: steeldcoSo here's a pattern that I've noticed. The +130dogs have hit at around 43% so far this year. Yet they are a net winner on 60% of the playing days. Therefore, it tells me that they win most days, but some of the losing days are big losers. I am toying with using the data I have so far to pick a single +130dog each play day at a higher multiple wager.
I was appreciating that you were mitigating the volatility of the 130dawgs by playing them as a group. So my initial reaction to you putting all the dawg eggs in one basket is some reservation about it. But I'm also very uneducated in what you're doing despite the detail you provide, so call it my 2 cents and ignore it. :-)
Rangers +106
Pirates -103
Yankees +100
Blue Jays -148
Cardinals +100
White Sox +113
Marlins +121
Indians +124
Yesterday's results: +413
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +464
Favorites -103
Focus Picks 0
dogflips +52
YTD Total +19,963
+130dogs +9,436 <-----They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
Other dogs +279
Favorites +85
Focus Picks +9,597 <-----They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
dogflips +566
Quote: beachbumbabsI was appreciating that you were mitigating the volatility of the 130dawgs by playing them as a group. So my initial reaction to you putting all the dawg eggs in one basket is some reservation about it. But I'm also very uneducated in what you're doing despite the detail you provide, so call it my 2 cents and ignore it. :-)
Hi beachbumbabs, I'm sorry for not being very clear. I can have difficulty in articulating my thoughts properly.
What I had meant to say was that I am thinking about selecting one of the +130dogs each day and making it a separate group at a high wager. For example, if I can statistically select one of the +130dogs as a slightly better probability of winning and then wager say 10X's instead of 7X's then maybe I stand a chance of hitting 60% on that group. I suggest this because we have 60% winning days with the +130dogs, but only 43% of all of the +130dogs picks are winners. Which would seem to indicate to me that even though it only loses on 40% of the days, it loses big on those days. A lot of 0 for 4, or 0 for 5 days. So, can I create a new group of picks, a single pick per day, made from the original group of +130 dogs, also keeping the current +130dogs, and hit 60%? Hell yes, and they will be called "Superdawgs"!!
Quote: lilredroosterKansas City is 30-29. They are 19-7 at home and 11-22 on the road. This is really extreme. Do you think that this is just a statistical outlier with no real significance. Or is there a reason for this and what is the reason?
I looked briefly at the KC situation a couple of weeks ago. Didn't find anything of significance then, however I will take a harder look at it over the weekend.
Phillies 235 FOCUS 7X's
Yankees -148 DOGFLIP
Orioles 119
Athletics -117 FOCUS 7X's
Cubs -250 DOGFLIP
Mets -131 DOGFLIP
Red Sox -145 FOCUS 7X's
Diamondbacks -142 DOGFLIP
Mariners -148 DOGFLIP
Quote: lilredroosterKansas City is 30-29. They are 19-7 at home and 11-22 on the road. This is really extreme. Do you think that this is just a statistical outlier with no real significance. Or is there a reason for this and what is the reason?
The pitching splits have changed dramatically from 2015 to 2016. KC's strikeout per walk ratio at home in 2016 is 3.31 while their ratio away is only 1.85 (not enough time to look it up but this maybe the worst in MLB?). The pitching is getting killed on the road. A huge difference. The 2015 team only had around a spread of .46 between home and away. The batting splits also show deterioration from 2015, but not as badly as the pitching.
The stats are from baseball-reference.com.
Phillies -700
Yankees +100
Orioles -100
Athletics -819
Cubs -250
Mets +100
Red Sox +700
Diamondbacks -142
Mariners +100
Yesterday's results: -1,011
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +19
Favorites -119
Focus Picks -819
dogflips -92
YTD Total +18,952
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs +298
Favorites -34
Focus Picks +8,778
dogflips +474
Nationals -148 DOGFLIP
Twins 123
White Sox -165 DOGFLIP
Brewers 128
Cubs -275 DOGFLIP
Rockies -210 DOGFLIP
Astros 119
Athletics 125
Cardinals -109
Marlins -150 DOGFLIP
Mariners -155 DOGFLIP
So far, so good.
Twins -100
White Sox -165
Brewers +128
Cubs +100
Rockies +100
Astros +119
Athletics -100
Cardinals +100
Marlins -150
Mariners -155
Yesterday's results: -23
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +47
Favorites +100
Focus Picks 0
dogflips -170
YTD Total +18,929
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs +345
Favorites +66
Focus Picks +8,778
dogflips +304
Blue Jays -176
Cubs -250 DOGFLIP
Tigers 107
Red Sox -170
Indians -162 DOGFLIP
Nationals -245 DOGFLIP
Diamondbacks -119 FOCUS 7X's
Rockies -148 DOGFLIP
Giants 102
06/12/16 Results:
Blue Jays +100
Cubs +100
Tigers +107
Red Sox -170
Indians +100
Nationals +100
Diamondbacks +700
Rockies +100
Giants +102
Yesterday's results: +1,239
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -491
Favorites +630
Focus Picks +700
dogflips +400
YTD Total +20,168
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs -146
Favorites +696
Focus Picks +9,478
dogflips +704
Cubs 116
Blue Jays -200 dogflip
Indians -126
Diamondbacks -164 dogflip
Athletics -105
Padres 107 FOCUS 7X's
Giants -138 FOCUS 7X's
Cubs -100
Blue Jays -200
Indians -126
Diamondbacks +100
Athletics +100
Padres -700
Giants +700
Yesterday's results: -226
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites -126
Focus Picks 0
dogflips -100
YTD Total +19,942
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs -146
Favorites +570
Focus Picks +9,478
dogflips +604
Blue Jays -210 DOGFLIP
Nationals -101
Red Sox -173 DOGFLIP
Mariners 104
Royals 112
Cardinals -140 DOGFLIP
Dodgers -140 DOGFLIP
Rangers -104
Marlins 122
Giants -255 FOCUS 7X's
Blue Jays +100
Nationals -101
Red Sox -173
Mariners -100
Royals +112
Cardinals -140
Dodgers +100
Rangers +100
Marlins +122
Giants +700
Yesterday's results: +720
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +134
Favorites -1
Focus Picks +700
dogflips -113
YTD Total +20,662
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs -12
Favorites +569
Focus Picks +10,178
dogflips +491
Rockies -103
Padres 105
Dodgers -235 DOGFLIP
Giants -210 DOGFLIP
Blue Jays -155 DOGFLIP
Astros 105
White Sox -175 DOGFLIP
Angels -124 DOGFLIP
Athletics -140 DOGFLIP
06/15/16 Results:
Rockies +100
Padres +105
Dodgers +100
Giants +100
Blue Jays +100
Astros +105
White Sox +100
Angels +100
Athletics -140
Yesterday's results: +670
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +210
Favorites +100
Focus Picks 0
dogflips +360
YTD Total +21,332
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs +198
Favorites +669
Focus Picks +10,178
dogflips +851
Braves 106
Athletics 105
Phillies 118 FOCUS 7X's
Pirates 119
Red Sox -148 DOGFLIP
Royals 104
Nationals -166 DOGFLIP
Braves +106
Athletics -100
Phillies -700
Pirates -100
Red Sox -148
Royals -100
Nationals +100
Yesterday's results: -942
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -194
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -700
dogflips -48
YTD Total +20,390
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs +4
Favorites +669
Focus Picks +9,478
dogflips +803
Blue Jays -141 DOGFLIP
Rockies -104
Mets -240 DOGFLIP
Mariners 113
Giants 112
Astros -250 DOGFLIP
Royals 109
Cardinals -104 FOCUS 7X's
Angels -140 DOGFLIP
Nationals -165 DOGFLIP
Quote: steeldcoDamn beachmonkey.....just missed that erfect round. Not complaining here though, things are going as expected, and well.
All good thanks you only need one round and money back, also have had many mini rounds thanks . good work , many bananas to peel thanks have great day.regards
Blue Jays +100
Rockies -104
Mets -240
Mariners +113
Giants +112
Astros -250
Royals +109
Cardinals -728
Angels -140
Nationals +100
Yesterday's results: -928
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +334
Favorites -104
Focus Picks -728
dogflips -430
YTD Total +19,462
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs +338
Favorites +565
Focus Picks +8,750
dogflips +373
06/18/16 Picks:
Yankees -141 DOGFLIP
Diamondbacks -160 DOGFLIP
Orioles 115 FOCUS 7X's
Mariners 143
Athletics 110
Astros -265 DOGFLIP
Rays -122 FOCUS 7X's
Cardinals -176 FOCUS 7X's
Indians -215 FOCUS 7X's
Mets -270 DOGFLIP
Royals -141 DOGFLIP
Nationals -235 DOGFLIP
Dodgers -161 DOGFLIP
Yankees +100
Diamondbacks +100
Orioles +805
Mariners -100
Athletics -100
Astros +100
Rays -854
Cardinals -1232
Indians 7+00
Mets -270
Royals +100
Nationals -235
Dodgers +100
Yesterday's results: -786
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -200
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -581
dogflips -5
YTD Total +18,676
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs +138
Favorites +565
Focus Picks +8,169
dogflips +368
Rockies 113
Indians -165
Giants 122
Diamondbacks -141 DOGFLIP
Orioles -118 FOCUS 7X's
Red Sox -190
Yankees -143 DOGFLIP
Astros -188 DOGFLIP
Tigers -102 FOCUS 7X's
Rangers 129
Athletics 108
Dodgers -205
Quote: DrawingDeadBreak up the Braves.
LOLOL....
Rockies -100
Indians +100
Giants +122
Diamondbacks +100
Orioles +700
Red Sox +100
Yankees -143
Astros +100
Tigers -714
Rangers +129
Athletics -100
Dodgers +100
Yesterday's results: +394
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +8
Favorites +343
Focus Picks -14
dogflips +57
YTD Total +19,070
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs +146
Favorites +908
Focus Picks +8,155
dogflips +425
Giants -171
Red Sox -210 DOGFLIP
Cubs -158 DOGFLIP
Rangers 111
Giants -171
Red Sox -210
Cubs -158
Rangers +111
Yesterday's results: -428
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +111
Favorites -171
Focus Picks 0
dogflips -368
YTD Total +18,642
+130dogs +9,436
Other dogs +257
Favorites +737
Focus Picks +8,155
dogflips +57