Neutrino
Neutrino
Joined: Feb 20, 2014
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March 5th, 2016 at 9:22:58 PM permalink
Is there any way to take an opposite bet from a sports book? Other than betting on all opponents of course, since that greatly increases vig, to the point of -EV sometimes even if your bet wins.

For example, according to oddschecker.com the current bet for Kasich to be republican nominee is 12. Now I think that is ridiculously low as I believe Kasich has almost no chance. Maybe a fair number is 75 in my opinion.

Now if I felt that number was high, I would indeed bet 1 to win 12. However since I feel that number is low, I'd like to bet 12 to win 1, which is the opposite of the standard Kasich bet.

My question is how do I do that. An somewhat obvious solution is to bet on Trump, Cruz and Rubio. But I feel that that would be greatly unprofitable if not completely -EV.

Any suggestions?
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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March 5th, 2016 at 11:02:58 PM permalink
You Absolutely can bet the don't on that - I use to have the website let me see if I can find it again
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Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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March 5th, 2016 at 11:04:24 PM permalink
Might be predictit.org but I thought there was another
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Aussie
Aussie
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March 6th, 2016 at 2:34:51 AM permalink
Betfair.
Neutrino
Neutrino
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March 6th, 2016 at 10:49:27 AM permalink
Other than betting exchanges, any way to bet on the don't in standard sportsbooks?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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March 6th, 2016 at 11:21:54 AM permalink
Quote: Neutrino

Other than betting exchanges, any way to bet on the don't in standard sportsbooks?


By "standard," do you mean Vegas ones?

My guess is, unless it's specifically offered, no, you can't. For example, if there's a list of NASCAR drivers with odds for winning the next race (which, not particularly coincidentally, is today in Las Vegas), you probably can't place a bet that a particular driver won't win.

I have seen "everybody against" bets - usually that the defending college football champion won't repeat - but, like I said, they have to be specifically offered.
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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March 6th, 2016 at 11:26:56 AM permalink
You may find it at smaller books but you can't get anything worthwhile down- All the real money in the prediction markets- why would you not use them--- way better prices and more options
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RS
RS
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March 6th, 2016 at 11:32:02 AM permalink
IANASB:

If a bet was offered at 12-to-1 (ie: +1200) for something to happen, then the casino is going to have an edge on that bet (or, at least, expects to have an edge). So, by making a bet on the opposite side, say -1200 that the event will NOT happen, then you would clearly have an edge. In other words -- the lines that are posted are not "fair" and are not meant to be "fair". They're meant to have a HE for the casino.

You'd have to find the bet offered that you'd want, probably something like -1300 or worse, and bet on that.
TomG
TomG
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March 6th, 2016 at 1:55:58 PM permalink
Quote: Neutrino

Other than betting exchanges, any way to bet on the don't in standard sportsbooks?



Yes. Simply bet the "won't win" side. Most all the best online sportsbooks offer it for the majority of their propositions. May be able to lay 30-1 on an exchange; best I remember seeing recently on Kasich at a book was laying 50-1, not sure what the limits are; couple places I checked just now have him off the board, only putting Hillary and Trump up against the field.
Aussie
Aussie
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March 6th, 2016 at 2:35:53 PM permalink
Kasich is currently 16 to back, 17.5 to lay on Betfair for the nomination. Not a whole lot of liquidity though.

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