Tailing a pro.. Math help

If you tail a professional bettors picks (only ATS at -110 odds) and he wins at a 54% clip, but because of the time gap in picks, you always get a worse line. Sometimes it's only a half point worse, sometimes it's 3 points worse. How does that change the win percentage over the long term? I haven't been able to find proper math to support it, but you would essentially have to know what the odds are that the specific game you bet will be won by the pro and lost by you. Or how often the difference in point spreads will end in the middle. Ex. Pro bets at -3 and I bet it at -5. Game ends with the favorite winning by 4. How often does that actually happen?

I would think these would each be situational to game/spread/etc. If the pro is handicapping, that 1 extra point could mean the difference between betting and not betting, thus if you follow at a worse line, you could be making a negative edge play.

There are plenty of places online that give margin of victory and push rates. I think wizardofodds has one.

Calculator I use says that if an NFL team has a 54% chance of covering -3, they have a 45% chance of covering -5
If an NBA team has a 54% chance of covering -3, they have a 46% chance of covering -5

If you go to covers.com click on live odds then click matchups you will see a consensus opinion of experts. I'm assuming by experts they mean pros. This site also sells pro picks. If you find a very strong agreement among experts you may have a good bet that you didn't have to analyze yourself. Right now as I'm writing this in the NBA contest between Memphis -2.5 and Phoenix their experts are 8-1 for Memphis. All of this is free. If I was doing this I would stay away from the super teams. I would say it's much harder to win in the long run when you have to give up a lot of points or a lot of dollars on the money line. However, the lines do move sometimes very early and even the night before and I don't think covers.com gets their picks up until about 6am on the same day as the game.

Quote: lilredrooster

I'm assuming by experts they mean pros. This site also sells pro picks

I always assume "experts" are touts more interested in selling picks than making money on those picks.

Quote: DRich

I always assume "experts" are touts more interested in selling picks than making money on those picks.

It's certainly true that they're trying to make money selling their picks. On the other hand if they don't make their customers money they're going to go out of business or at least they won't get repeat customers for very long. I don't pay for picks, I like the challenge of making my own. Covers.com is the best sports betting site that I know of. Tons of statistics. But it's true that I can't vouch for their experts or pros making money. The OP is using a pro so I thought I'd point out that you can get picks for free. Covers documents the performance of their pros. Again, I can't swear the stats aren't shaded. If they are stating that their best pros are winning ATS about 57% of the time or at the very most 58% this is believable. The so called pros that advertise and say they won all of last season at 68% are not believable. I don't blame them for having a sales pitch. Everybody in business does.

Quote: lilredrooster

If they are stating that their best pros are winning ATS about 57% of the time or at the very most 58% this is believable.

Starting with $10,000, making three bets per day all with a 59% chance of winning, they will have around $2 trillion after one year betting full Kelly. Winning 58% and betting half Kelly would still give them over $10 billion after two years.

(if any of that math is wrong, someone please correct it)

Obviously they'll run into limits very quickly, which will limit annual income to less than $200,000 per sportsbook making only three bets per day. But if we find that believable, it would be far more profitable for them to use their time finding ways to either get more money down at more places or finding more good bets instead of trying to make sales.

Even if you believed that top cappers could at best win only 54% ATS they too could become very wealthy pretty quickly if they bet big & managed their money with maximum efficiency. But they don't. Even if you gamble with a nice edge there is always a big beast looming on the horizon ; namely long losing streaks 3 standard deviations on the wrong side of the norm. Most winning players can only handle the beast with small or medium size bets. They can't handle the beast with gigantic bets. Only a very few can.

Quote: lilredrooster

Even if you gamble with a nice edge there is always a big beast looming on the horizon ; namely long losing streaks 3 standard deviations on the wrong side of the norm.

For a winning bettor, streaks are good. If a losing streak of three standard deviations comes either before or after a winning streak of three standard deviations away from the norm, a 54% winning bettor will increase their bankroll by 9% in either scenario, if they are betting according to Kelly Criterion. If no such streaks occur and the bettor simply achieves expected profit over the same number of bets, they'll increase their bankroll by less than 3%.

(Also, for a 54% bettor a losing streak of three standard deviations on the wrong side will occur about once for every seven winning streaks of the same length).

(and as always, if anyone has any different results, please correct me, I was caring more about speed than accuracy when trying to work this problem out ).

Many years ago I used a pick service for a very short time. If I remember correctly I think I broke even. The problem was similar to what the OP is describing. They quote the very best line for their pick which was no longer available by the time I got it. I had to give up more points than they quoted. It's definitely a good idea to look at these guys with a lot of skepticism. And as I posted earlier you can get a strong consensus pick for free. Is it worthwhile? I would say if the consensus indicates it's a strong play such as 8-1 on the one I saw this morning; and you agree that it's good play then it's worthwhile. But if you don't agree; and you have a pretty good knowledge of the teams and the sport then I would say it's not a good play.

Stale lines & past posting = mother's milk of scamtouts.

Here are two interesting links on this subject. The first is an article by Dan Gordon who is himself a pick seller but in the article exposes the sleazy methods of other touts. The article appears on Blackjack Hall of Famer Arnold Snyder's website. Snyder also has Gordon's book in his library which I would say implies that he believes that Dan Gordon is totally legitimate. The second link is our own contributor Qfit's posts about Gordon that appears on Qfit's website Qfit.com. As most know Qfit is a major contributor to blackjack literature and computer systemization. I hope Qfit doesn't object to me linking his work and if he does I'm sure the Wizard will delete my post. Here is also a short snip of Gordon's article that I have cut and pasted. It may seem from this post that I am recommending Gordon but I'm not and I don't. I only posted this stuff to further the discussion. As I posted earlier, I don't pay for picks.

In summary, the only touts you should even consider using are those who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages (in the upper 50% to lower 60% range). These touts are to be commended not only for their win rates, but for their honesty and strength of character. Believe me, it is hard to act this way and survive for long in this field. ♠

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/nfltouts.htm


https://www.qfit.com/nfl-football-software.htm

Quote: lilredrooster

It's certainly true that they're trying to make money selling their picks. On the other hand if they don't make their customers money they're going to go out of business or at least they won't get repeat customers for very long.

And they just open back up under a new name, call the customers on the list and bad mouth the other guy promising to dig them out. Jim Feist has made it 30+ years and has never hit the numbers he claims and there are many more.

It's all about sales, not handicapping in that industry. While there are a few that may be honest, most are not and like you said, it's better to do the research and make your own picks.

If you are following but getting worse lines you won't win. If you are paying for the picks on top of that you will lose that too

First the question. If you pay attention, it is possible to get picks from legit winning bettors. There are some who give out plays on twitter. I have some internet and IRL friends who give out plays here and there. Some guys like Stuckey and Allan Dinkman who, to the best of my knowledge, are winners give stuff out.

It is problematic though. If you are getting worse numbers, you will lose. The edge comes from numbers. Look at it this way. If I found a VP machine that paid 103% and turned you on to it, but then when you got there it was 98% you would not have a winning play. Sports is the same. It's just probabilities. Nobody knows who is going to win.

Moreover, even if you miss some good numbers and hit others, you might be in bad shape. You TRY to make good bets in sports. But if you are handicapping, you will be wrong a lot. There's a good chance that the numbers will move when I'm right and stay the same or go the other way when I'm wrong. So even if you only take picks at the same number or better, you're probably getting my worst picks.

Much less than 1%, without exaggeration, of people who sell picks are selling winners. The only one I know of is Right Angle Sports. RAS is expensive and you have to get the bets in immediately, because the lines usually move based on their plays.

This would be true of most winning touts (the few that there are). If you ran a sports book and some guy sold winning plays on the nfl for $29.99, what would you do? Yep. Buy em yourself and adjust your lines accordingly.

Best thing to do really, is to just try to figure out why winning bettors bet the way they do and duplicate it. The majority of it is really just line shopping.

The touts on covers are not experts in anything other than parting people from their money. I used to listen to guys like that too. I still do on occasion, mainly for entertainment. But the more I've learned what I'm doing, the more I've understood that they don't know what they're doing. Many of them are totally clueless. No more expert than someone who says red is more likely to come up because it's been black 4 times in a row.

How do they keep getting customers with losing picks? How does a psychic medium survive?

So... the guy who got kewlj banned, because kewlj suggested he was propagating poor advice from unethical parties is promoting a tout on his site?

I cannot say, in all honesty, that Qfit got KewlJ banned from this site. I think that Wizard got KewlJ banned, and that during every step along the way towards the inevitable, Wizard was well intentioned. Sometimes good intentions fall short.

One more thing to add to all that. Past success is no guarantee of future success. Even IF you find someone with a winning record, they could lose their edge at any time. And it might even be pure luck that they've gotten as far as they did.

As was observed in another thread, SOMEONE out there is a pro baccarat player. Just from luck. I wouldn't pay him for advice.

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

I cannot say, in all honesty, that Qfit got KewlJ banned from this site. I think that Wizard got KewlJ banned, and that during every step along the way towards the inevitable, Wizard was well intentioned. Sometimes good intentions fall short.

It depends how you slice it, I guess. Granted, KJ decided to speak his mind on the subject, knowing it was forbidden. But how did it come to be forbidden?

All we can say for sure is that KJ is history for, at least in his mind, honestly criticizing the practices of a guy who: promotes at least one tout, made false accusations of "personal attacks" and "slander" and a dubious insinuation of antisemitism on this forum.

That post is the only thing I've ever read on his site. I would advise any new gambler, and certainly anybody interested in sports to steer clear of it. It's already confused/mislead people in this very thread. I don't want these people to lose money by believing this nonsense.

If I was, for some reason, forbidden from telling people to disregard that article, and the other Dan Gordon article, I would have a very hard time doing so.

Quote: lilredrooster

Here are two interesting links on this subject. The first is an article by Dan Gordon who is himself a pick seller but in the article exposes the sleazy methods of other touts.
In summary, the only touts you should even consider using are those who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages (in the upper 50% to lower 60% range). These touts are to be commended not only for their win rates, but for their honesty and strength of character. Believe me, it is hard to act this way and survive for long in this field. ♠

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/nfltouts.htm


https://www.qfit.com/nfl-football-software.htm

I cannot say with 100% certainty that this guy is a fraud. But...

These are time tested tactics. "This isn't one of those CRAZY pyramid schemes that only suckers fall for. This is multi level marketing!"

"I'm not a psychic. I'm a spiritual medium!"

In other words, you point to the truly outlandish scams and decry them, so that yours seems reasonable. "Nobody can hit 80% in the NFL. But I can hit almost 57% I'll share it with you for an incredibly low price!"

He suggests that it would be worth it for a $100 bettor to buy his picks, while nobly acknowledging that it would not be worth it for a $50 bettor.

Here are the "testimonials" on his own site. To me, they sound very made up. All of these random customers write very good ad copy, don't they? I like the guy who suggests that he quadrupled his money. Man, you'd think this Dan Gordon guy would be famous and have people lined up around the block if he knew how you could quadruple your money with next to no work on your part.

http://www.dangordonsportpicks.net/testimonials.html

Instead, here he is practically pan handling on his now dead facebook page.

Dan Gordon Sports Picks is now 11-6 (64.7%) on NFL point-spread selections in the 2014 season. There is still time to save YOUR NFL season. Read more at dangordonsportpicks.net and sign up!!
NBA selections just two weeks away!! Went 70-48 (59.3%) in NBA selections in the 2013-14 season. You can ask me more about my NBA service at danlgordon@aol.com

https://www.facebook.com/Dan-Gordon-Sport-Picks-346517802192931/

Rigondeaux edited out the part of my post where I said that I was not recommending Dan Gordon. That I was only posting that stuff to further the discussion. However, in fairness to Dan Gordon I will point out that in the article published by Arnold Snyder he states that in betting sports you might even experience a losing season. I have never, ever before heard a handicapper who sells picks, other than him, suggest that you might buy his service and still have a losing season. Because this kind of brutal honesty would tend to work against him; it suggests to me that he is believable. Here is the cut and paste:



"Since you have to be prepared to ride out losses (even the best sports handicappers can lose—even have a losing season"

Quote: lilredrooster

Rigondeaux edited out the part of my post where I said that I was not recommending Dan Gordon. That I was only posting that stuff to further the discussion. However, in fairness to Dan Gordon I will point out that in the article published by Arnold Snyder he states that in betting sports you might even experience a losing season. I have never, ever before heard a handicapper who sells picks, other than him suggest that you might buy his service and still have a losing season. Because this kind of brutal honesty would tend to work against him; it suggests to me that he is believable. Here is the cut and past:



"Since you have to be prepared to ride out losses (even the best sports handicappers can lose—even have a losing season"

I'm not trying to make you look bad or anything. I know you are not vouching for him and didn't mean to suggest you are. I just edited it down for brevity.

I've never bought picks, but I used to think guys like this were semi-legit. And you can learn basic stuff from them, like you might from talking to random poker players if you were just starting.

However, I have heard the touts at pregame say on plenty of occasions that you can lose for an entire year. This is true and it's an example of the above point, that you can still learn a few things from these guys.

That's the way they work. They're pretty honest about most stuff and many of them even put a lot of work into their picks. Dan seems to be in that mold. But, at the end of they day, they are selling losing advice to people and they know it is losing advice. Especially with the added cost of paying for picks. That's (and with their records) is where they are dishonest, and that's where it counts.

Another perk is that they can keep you on the hook longer. "Hey, as you know, being a very smart and savvy guy, good picks can lose for a full year. But if you hang in there with me, we know we are going to be winners in the long run."

It would be really interesting if the Wizard could get 5 or 6 touts, who for whatever reason he might believe to possibly be authentic, to release their picks to just him for the purpose of analysis. He could disallow any picks that did not give an accurate line at the time they were picked. If he could get them to agree to do the baseball season, which is the longest, there would be a sample size of several thousand picks. If they won, it might be good for their business. If they lost; not so good. But it surely would be interesting.

You'd think they would want that great opportunity, eh? Heck, if he could prove he is selling free money, I bet half the forum would sign up with Dan. No need to beg for clients on FB!

I'm guessing that the Wizard would be very reluctant to involve himself with such a character, though.

Here's a forum where a guy has tracked the picks of several well known touts. They don't usually do well when someone else keeps track;

http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=39

There's a lot of stuff on forums like that about touts. There's a lot on twitter too.

Quote: lilredrooster

It would be really interesting if the Wizard could get 5 or 6 touts, who for whatever reason he might believe to possibly be authentic, to release their picks to just him for the purpose of analysis. He could disallow any picks that did not give an accurate line at the time they were picked. If he could get them to agree to do the baseball season, which is the longest, there would be a sample size of several thousand picks. If they won, it might be good for their business. If they lost; not so good. But it surely would be interesting.

The problem with the touts who avoid making claims that are ridiculous at face value is that they are making the same claims that the few legitimate winning Bettors or groups out there would make:

1.) You don't pick many games.

AND

2.) You might have a losing season, but will win in the long run.

Both would be true statements from legitimate winning Bettors. The only real argument against the touts is they could make more money setting up a betting network than by selling their Picks.

Actually, in The Smart Money, Big Daddy said he would not finish a season down, so that would actually sound even more absurd (and he was legit) than someone saying you could have a losing season.

In one of David Sklansky's book on poker he says some players are "freaks." They sit down and start winning very early in their careers and never stop. I think Big Daddy is (was) a freak; and I mean that in a good way. Here is a story about another freak; Ernie Dahlman; the story is from the New York Times. He was making about 700k per year betting horses when the story was written. Can you imagine trying to tell your mom and dad or your wife that you plan to make big bucks betting horses and you don't need a job?


http://www.nytimes.com/2001/06/03/magazine/the-wizard-of-odds.html?pagewanted=all

Part of this discussion was about the abilities of touts. Just as a point of interest the Covers.com "experts", those who claim that they are pros, have made St. Louis a consensus pick over Milwaukee by a tally of 18-0 in today's game at 1:40pm est. As I write this St. Louis is -155 at betonline.ag. Of course, just one game doesn't prove anything but it will be kind of interesting to see the result.

Quote: lilredrooster

Part of this discussion was about the abilities of touts. Just as a point of interest the Covers.com "experts", those who claim that they are pros, have made St. Louis a consensus pick over Milwaukee by a tally of 18-0 in today's game at 1:40pm est. As I write this St. Louis is -155 at betonline.ag. Of course, just one game doesn't prove anything but it will be kind of interesting to see the result.

Lol, Milwaukee won 3-1.

Quote: Mission146

The problem with the touts who avoid making claims that are ridiculous at face value is that they are making the same claims that the few legitimate winning Bettors or groups out there would make:

1.) You don't pick many games.

AND

2.) You might have a losing season, but will win in the long run.

Both would be true statements from legitimate winning Bettors. The only real argument against the touts is they could make more money setting up a betting network than by selling their Picks.

Actually, in The Smart Money, Big Daddy said he would not finish a season down, so that would actually sound even more absurd (and he was legit) than someone saying you could have a losing season.

I'm not sure how much money you can get down before you change the line on yourself. So if a winning sports bettor can get a bunch of money down before he announces his picks he can get the best of both worlds. The guys paying for picks get screwed if they can't get the lines the tout is touting.

I disagree with whomever said a sports bettor can make billions/ trillions betting kelly because you probably can't get enough down especially without moving the line.

Spots books oftentimes limit sharp bettors and their runners, runners are not usually free either

Quote: Mission146

The problem with the touts who avoid making claims that are ridiculous at face value is that they are making the same claims that the few legitimate winning Bettors or groups out there would make:

1.) You don't pick many games.

AND

2.) You might have a losing season, but will win in the long run.

Both would be true statements from legitimate winning Bettors. The only real argument against the touts is they could make more money setting up a betting network than by selling their Picks.

Actually, in The Smart Money, Big Daddy said he would not finish a season down, so that would actually sound even more absurd (and he was legit) than someone saying you could have a losing season.

Mission have you written an article about this?

Quote: AxelWolf

Mission have you written an article about this?

Sort of, I Reviewed The Smart Money.