ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 10th, 2016 at 1:28:52 PM permalink
Here are today's NBA picks (the team/ or 'over under' for totals in brackets, is the pick)
All bets are spread bets, unless otherwise stated
nb(1): I worked out an estimated EV as a % for the first two picks (both in the same game)
nb(2): the rest of the EV's, are written as to what I think the estimated spread should be for that game
nb(3): the last two are just over/under picks

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Magic vs Spurs, (Magic) @ + 8, EV ~ 12%
Magic vs Spurs (Magic) ML*** @ +300, EV ~ 8%
ML***: means money line.
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Hornets vs Pacers (Hornets)@ +3.5, estimated spread ~ +2.75
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Raptors vs Timberwolves (Timberwolves) +6.5, estimated spread ~ +5.5
Raptors vs TImberwolves (Under) 207, estimated total ~ 204.5
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Jazz vs Pelicans (Under) 195, estimated total 193.5
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Disclaimer: These picks/estimates should be disregarded if there are any NEW amendments to team rosters, eg: injuries/ player replacements from this point onwards (which is about 4 pm EST, on game day)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 10, 2016
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 10th, 2016 at 2:39:19 PM permalink
Update: According to vegas insider, you can now get +8.5 for Magic at most vegas books.
Also, Magic is +9 with a significant number of online books, but I have not seen any new injury reports or changes in team start-ups/rosters, so I still think the +8 was good value, I will only have a little bit more on at the +9 though, since I already took the +8.
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Lastly, I have two late picks below:
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Warriors vs Suns, (Suns) @ +16.5, estimated spread ~ +13.5
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Lakers vs Cavaliers (Cavaliers) @ - 15.5, estimated spread ~ - 16.25***

estimated spread -16.25***: not enough value for me to have a big bet on this one, but I think they are the best value favourite.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 10, 2016
JW17
JW17
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February 10th, 2016 at 8:49:59 PM permalink
Not too bad, but the best value bet was way wrong. Im guessing the Kobe factor.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Joined: Oct 20, 2013
February 21st, 2016 at 2:11:46 PM permalink
Results for 10th of February
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Spurs vs Magic
98 to 96
(Magic) @ +8 and ML bet
Results: Win spread and lose ML bet (still overall win^^^)
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Hornets vs Pacers
117 to 95
(Hornets) @ +3.5
Result: Win
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Raptors vs Timberwolves
112 to 117
(Timberwolves) @ +6.5
(Under) 207
Results: Win spread lose total (overall slight loss if you had equal amounts on both bets)
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Jazz vs Pelicans
96 to 100
(Under) 195
Result: Loss
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Warriors vs Suns
112 to 104
(Suns) @ +16.5
Result: Win
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Lakers vs Cavaliers
111 to 120
(Cav's) @ -15.5
Result: Loss^^^
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Win^^^ and Loss^^^: roughly cancel each other out.
Overall results: is a small win, (I will write it up correctly for today's game onwards, because of NB1, see below)
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NB1: I will be posting my picks as a "how much to have on, for a $1000 bank-roll" from now on (see the $ amount at the end of each pick).
NB2: Team(s) in brackets is/are the pick(s).
NB3: ML means 'money-line'
NB4: assuming the odds are still -110 or better at those spreads (for spread bets).
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Spurs vs Suns (Suns) @ +14, $27
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Celtics vs Nuggets (Nuggets) @ +3, $36
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Jazz vs Trailblazers (Jazz) @ +2.5, $27
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For favourite punters, I can't find much spread value today, but I will put in the Raptors as the best favourite bet:
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Grizzlies vs Raptors (Raptors) @ ML -340, $34
and (Raptors) @ -7.5, $5.50
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no totals today, good luck,

Disclaimer: These picks/estimates should be disregarded if there are any NEW amendments to team rosters, eg: injuries/ player replacements from this point onwards (which is about 450 pm EST, on game day)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 21, 2016
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Joined: Oct 20, 2013
February 21st, 2016 at 4:46:14 PM permalink
Late post/pick:
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Lakers vs Bulls
(Lakers) @ +7.5***, $44^^^
OR
(Lakers) @ +7.0***, $27.5^^^

***: I will be using +7.5 , since that is what I got, and according to vegas insider there are 2 or more books that are still +7.5, right?

^^^: Only pick one spread or the other, don't back Lakers at both spreads, this means the most you should be able to lose on this pick is $44 with $1000 bank-roll
------------
Disclaimer: These picks/estimates should be disregarded if there are any NEW amendments to team rosters, eg: injuries/ player replacements from this point onwards (which is about 730 pm EST, on game day)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 21, 2016
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 21st, 2016 at 5:59:03 PM permalink
update at 853 pm:
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Jazz vs Trailblazers
have another bet on (jazz) @ +3.0^^^, $10***

***: The full bet amount should be $37 now (+2.5, $27 and +3.0, $10)
----------
Disclaimer: These picks should be disregarded if there are any NEW amendments to team rosters, eg: injuries/ player replacements from this point onwards (which is about 853 pm EST, on game day)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Joined: Oct 20, 2013
February 22nd, 2016 at 1:36:39 PM permalink
Results for 21th of February
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Spurs vs Suns
118 to 111
(Suns) @+14, $27
Result: + $24.5; Accum. Result: + $24.5
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Celtics vs Nuggets,
121 to 101
(Nuggets) @ +3, $36
Result: -$36; Accum. Result: -$11.5
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Jazz vs Trailblazers
111 to 115
(Jazz) @ +2.5 and +3.0, $37 ($27 + $10)
Result: -$37; Accum Result: -$48.5
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Grizzlies vs Raptors
85 to 98
(Raptors) @ ML -340, $34
and (Raptors) @ -7.5, $5.5
Result: +$10 and $+5; Accum Result: -$33.5
-----
Lakers vs Bulls
115 to 126
(Lakers) @ +7.5, $44
Result: -$44; Accum Result: -$77.5
------
Result Summary:
Accum Profit or Loss: -$77.5
Accum Turnover: $183.5
Profit on turnover: about -42.23%
Bank Start: $1,000
Bank End: $922.5***
-----
***: I do not change the bank figure until it increases or decreases by about 20% or $200, whichever is less, so in other words, the amounts below are based on "$1000" bank (even though the real starting bank for today is $922.5)
-------------------
NB1: I will be posting my picks as a "how much to have on, for the current^^^ starting bank-roll" from now on (see the $ amount at the end of each pick).
^^^: See *** above, otherwise use the figure "Bank End" from the previous days picks, as the current starting bank.
NB2: Team(s) in brackets is/are the pick(s).
NB3: ML means 'money-line'
NB4: assume the odds are still -110 or better at those spreads (for spread bets/unless stated otherwise).
-------
Warriors vs Hawks (Hawks) @ +7.5, odds -115, $69 (this is what i got, so this figure will be used for the official results)
or
(Hawks) @ +6.5, $38.5
and
(Hawks) ML @ + 227, $10
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Raptors vs Knicks (Knicks) @ +4, $44
and
(Knicks) ML @ +150, $16 (...so this figure will be used for the official results)
or
(Knicks) ML @ +145, $10

Please note: the ML figures were added at about 515 pm EST
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Celtics vs Timberwolves (Timberwolves) @ +4.5. $22
and
(Timberwolves) ML @ +170, $16
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Suns vs Clippers (Suns) @ +15.5, $22 (... so this figure will be used for the official results)
or
(Suns) @ +16, $38.5
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Lakers vs Bucks (Bucks) @ -8.5, $33 (... this figure will be used in the official results)
or
(Bucks) @ -9.0, $16.5
------
no totals today, good luck,

Disclaimer: These picks should be disregarded if there are any NEW amendments to team rosters, eg: injuries/ player replacements from this point onwards (which is about 340 pm EST, on game day).

Disclaimer 2(added at 525 pm EST): Since I have already had the bets, they will always be counted in MY official results,whether there are new changes to team rosters or not.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 22, 2016
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 22nd, 2016 at 2:36:34 PM permalink
Pacers vs Heat (Pacers) @ +2.5, $44***
***: originally had $16.5, but have another $27.5 on the pacers @ +2.5, (bet amended at about 550 pm est)
---------
Pistons vs Cavaliers (Cavaliers) @ -9, $44 (... used for the official results)
or (Cavaliers) @ -9.5, $27.5
or (Cavaliers) @ -10, $11
---------
Disclaimer: These picks should be disregarded if there are any NEW amendments to team rosters, eg: injuries/ player replacements from this point onwards (which is about 530 pm EST, on game day).

Disclaimer 2: Since I have already had the bets, they will always be counted in MY official results, whether there are any new changes to team rosters or not.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 22, 2016
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Joined: Oct 20, 2013
February 23rd, 2016 at 2:23:22 PM permalink
Results for 22th of February
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Warriors vs Hawks
102 to 92
(Hawks) ML @ +227, $10
(Hawks) @+7.5, $69
Result: - $79; Accum. Result: - $156.5
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Raptors vs Knicks
122 to 95
(Knicks) ML @ +150, $16
(Knicks) @ +4, $44
Result: -$60; Accum. Result: -$216.5
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Celtics vs Timberwolves
122 to 124+
(Timberwolves) ML @ +170, $16
(Timberwolves) @ +4.5, $22
Result: +$47.2; Accum Result: -$169.3
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Suns vs Clippers (Suns)
84 to 124
(Suns) @ +15.5, $22
Result: -$22; Accum Result: -$191.3
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Lakers vs Bucks
115 to 126
(Bucks) @ -8.5, $33
Result: -$33; Accum Result: -$224.3
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Pacers vs Heat
93 to 101
(Pacers) @ +2.5, $44
Result: -$44; Accum Result: -$268.3
------
Pistons vs Cavaliers (Cavaliers)
96 to 88
(Cavaliers) @ -9, $44
Result: -$44; Accum Result: -$312.3
------
Result Summary:
Accum Profit or Loss: -$312.3
Accum Turnover: $503.5
Profit on turnover: about -62.02%
Bank (Start): $1,000
Bank (Current): $687.7
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 23, 2016
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 23rd, 2016 at 2:59:37 PM permalink
NB1: I will be posting my picks as a "how much to have on, for the current^^^ starting bank-roll" from now on (see the $ amount at the end of each pick).
^^^: Assume that the current bank-roll is $680, even though the real one is $687.7
NB2: Team(s) in brackets is/are the pick(s).
NB3: ML means 'money-line'
NB4: assume the odds are -110 (for spread bets/unless stated otherwise).
NB5: Today's games are not necessarily posted in the "correct" order, which is why I have "or" instead of "vs"
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Magic or 76ers (76ers) @ +5.5, $27.5
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Wizards or Pelicans (Pelicans) @ +4.5, $33
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Rockets or Jazz (Jazz) @ -4.5. $22
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Nuggets or Kings (Kings) @ +2, odds -112, $28
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Trailblazers or Nets (Nets) @ +11.5, 27.5
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Please note: because the bank-roll is down so much, these bets would be almost 1.5 x bigger if I was starting today with the original $1000 bank-roll.
------
good luck,

Disclaimer: These picks should be disregarded if there are any NEW amendments to team rosters, eg: injuries/ player replacements from this point onwards (which is about 540 pm EST, on game day).

Disclaimer 2: Since I have already had the bets, they will always be counted in MY official results, whether there are new changes to team rosters or not.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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February 23rd, 2016 at 7:16:24 PM permalink
I thought I heard a voice speaking from the clouds, scared the crap(s) out of me.
I bought earplugs, now I'm good...
Just 2F
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Joined: Oct 20, 2013
February 24th, 2016 at 4:06:31 PM permalink
Results for 23rd of February
-----
Magic vs 76ers
124 to 115
(76ers) @ +5.5, $27.5
Result: -$27.5; Accum. Result: -$339.8
-----
Pelicans vs Wizards
109 to 89
(Pelicans) @ +4.5, $33
Result: -$33; Accum Result: -$372.8
-----
Rockets vs Jazz
114 to 117
(Jazz) @ -4.5, $22
Result: -$22; Accum Result: -$394.8
-----
Kings vs Nuggets
114 to 110
(Kings) @ +2, odds -112, $28
Result: +$25; Accum Result: -$369.8
------
Nets vs Trailblazers
104 to 112
(Nets) @ +11.5, $27.5
Result: +$25; Accum Result: -$344.8
------
Result Summary:
Accum Profit or Loss: -$344.8
Accum Turnover: $641.5
Profit on turnover: about -53.75%
Bank (Start): $1,000
Bank (Current): $655.2
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 24, 2016
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Joined: Oct 20, 2013
February 24th, 2016 at 4:15:17 PM permalink
NB1: I will be posting my picks as a "how much to have on, for the current^^^ starting bank-roll" from now on (see the $ amount at the end of each pick).
^^^: Didn't have time to write up the current bank-roll, so the bets are a % of the current bank-roll today.
NB2: Team(s) in brackets is/are the pick(s).
NB3: ML means 'money-line'
NB4: assume the odds are -110 (for spread bets/unless stated otherwise).
Update @ 745 pm: Real Starting bank-roll was $655, so use $700 for today, so just x the % figures below by $700.
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Knicks vs Pacers (Knicks) @ +6.5, 3.80%, (not posted before start time, sorry, if it is a winning selection)
-------
Wizards vs Bulls (Wizards) @ +1.5, 6.00%
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Warriors vs Heat (Heat) @ +8.5, 4.40% (this will be used for the official results)
or
(Heat) @ +9.0, 6.00%
------
Disclaimer: These picks should be disregarded if there are any NEW amendments to team rosters, eg: injuries/ player replacements from this point onwards (which is about 645 pm EST, on game day).

Disclaimer 2: Since I have already had the bets, they will always be counted in MY official results, whether there are new changes to team rosters or not.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 24, 2016
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