Eagles +3.5 vs Cardinals

By choice I haven't done much sports betting this football season. It is purely entertainment and negative EV for me. I bet two weekends back in September, betting both college and NFL. One weekend I went like 1-6 in college and 5-1 in the NFL and the next it was just the opposite going 7-1 in college and 2-6 in the NFL, so I just decided I didn't want to be bothered wasting my time effort (and money) each week and to my surprise I have enjoyed both college and NFL just as much without having a little money on the Televised games. :/

But I just love this particular game and have wagered $550 to win $500 on it and am considering on dumping some more if the line is still +3.5 when I go out today. May even take a look at the money line.

First a disclaimer: I am an Eagles fan.....big time. I bleed green. But I try to be objective when it comes to my wagering. Last year I even wagered the under on the Eagles season total (betting against them), so the fact that I love this game is not just because I am an Eagles fan.

5 reasons:
1.) West coast teams traveling east often have a sluggish performance, whether it is the long travel, or time zone difference or what. Betting west coast teams traveling east, not to cover has been a successful angle over recent years.
2.) The cardinals are a warm weather team, traveling to play in Philadelphia at night (8:30pm start). Temperature predicted to be in the 30's.
3.) Cardinals have all but clinched both their division and the number 2 seed (first round bye). They would have to lose out while Seattle or Green Bay won out for the Cardinals to not clinch division and number 2 seed.
4.) with it's final 2 games against those two teams just mentioned Green Bay and Seattle, this is a classic 'trap' game for Arizona, looking ahead to two bigger games.
5.) Eagles have started to play better, winning 2 straight since Bradford returned from injury. They are 5-1 in the last 6 games that Bradford has started and finished. And obviously tied for their division lead (even at 6-7) this is a must win for eagles.

So there ya have it. I am going to publicly pick this game (and likely publicly embarrass myself).

Quote: kewlj

By choice I haven't done much sports betting this football season. It is purely entertainment and negative EV for me. I bet two weekends back in September, betting both college and NFL. One weekend I went like 1-6 in college and 5-1 in the NFL and the next it was just the opposite going 7-1 in college and 2-6 in the NFL, so I just decided I didn't want to be bothered wasting my time effort (and money) each week and to my surprise I have enjoyed both college and NFL just as much without having a little money on the Televised games. :/

But I just love this particular game and have wagered $500 on it and am considering on dumping some more if the line is still +3.5 when I go out today. May even take a look at the money line.

First a disclaimer: I am an Eagles fan.....big time. I bleed green. But I try to be objective when it comes to my wagering. Last year I even wagered the under on the Eagles season total (betting against them), so the fact that I love this game is not just because I am an Eagles fan.

5 reasons:
1.) West coast teams traveling east often have a sluggish performance, whether it is the long travel, or time zone difference or what. Betting west coast teams traveling east is one to not cover has been a successful angle over recent years.
2.) The cardinals are a warm weather team, traveling to play in Philadelphia at night (8pm start). temperature predicted to be in the 30's.
3.) Cardinals have all but clinched both their division and the number 2 seed (first round bye). They would have to lose out while Seattle or Green Bay won out for the Cardinals to not clinch division and number 2 seed.
4.) with it's final 2 games against those two teams just mentioned Green Bay and Seattle, this is a classic 'trasp' game for Arizona, looking ahead to two bigger games.
5.) Eagles have started to play better, winning 2 straight since Bradford returned from injury. They are 5-1 in the last 6 games that Bradford has started and finished. And obviously tied for their division lead (even at 6-7) this is a must win for eagles.

So there ya have it. I am going to publically pick this game (and likely publicly embarrass myself).

Would you care for a sidebet with me? I will still take AZ for $100, despite your analysis.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Would you care for a sidebet with me? I will still take AZ for $100, despite your analysis.

No, living in Vegas it is just much more convenient for me to wager at the sportsbooks and not be involved in sending money (likely scenario....lol) and/or giving up my address and privacy. Nothing personal...just more convenient.

But, since you like the other side that would indicate you are not in agreement with my analysis, I would welcome hearing your thoughts. :)

While I agree with everything kewlj said, but I don't know if it's enough to keep in within 3.5 points. The Cardinals are a vastly superior team, with extra rest, coming off the Thursday game last week. They know they can clinch the division with a win regardless of how they do against GB or Seattle. And they still have a slim chance of earning the #1 seed, but need to keep winning to do so.

I think the line is about right, I'm staying away from this one.

Quote: kewlj

........

So there ya have it. I am going to publicly pick this game (and likely publicly embarrass myself).

You embarrassed yourself when you proclaimed being a fan of anything from Philadelphia. Bazinga!!!!

Quote: kewlj

No, living in Vegas it is just much more convenient for me to wager at the sportsbooks and not be involved in sending money (likely scenario....lol) and/or giving up my address and privacy. Nothing personal...just more convenient.

But, since you like the other side that would indicate you are not in agreement with my analysis, I would welcome hearing your thoughts. :)

MAP (above) made several points I agree with. AZ is too dominant, and still has playoff placement at stake, so I expect them to play their best people until the game is put away. I think PHL (sorry) is the weakest of their remaining opponents, and the extra rest cancels out the jet lag issue for the most part. I think the line is low by at least a couple points.

Nothing personal taken. Just a spur-of-the-moment impulse. :)

#3 is false. GB could go 3-0 and AZ 1-2 and GB would win via H2H tiebreaker with a win a week from Sunday against AZ in that scenario with both teams finishing 12-4

I am sure the site is most impressed with my pick and waiting with bated (or baited) breath for my next pick. lol.

I was about to pm and offer you a freerol percentage for your pics

"Eagles playing better" was against a 2nd string pats team with no Gronk and a 3 pt win against the Bills who give away every game they play. The books Best weapon is that the public forgets the past. The two weeks prior the Lions and Buccs put up 45 pts on them, both of which are what i consider to be hot garbage. Fan or not.... sheeesh. Sorry you lost out but always Research and usually your gut is wrong.

That being said 550 put on your favorite team is a rush that you will not even come close to drinking or doing whatever you may do for a rush. Good luck next time!!

I learned long ago not to bet on games with my team playing. Way to hard to be objective.


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

I learned long ago not to bet on games with my team playing. Way to hard to be objective.


ZCore13

Yep that is very true. It goes both ways as well. I won't bet for or against the steelers.

Quote: Zcore13

I learned long ago not to bet on games with my team playing. Way to hard to be objective.


ZCore13

Your thoughts are similar to most people but I look at it just the opposite. If there is any team that I root for I probably watch more of their games than any other teams. With that in mind I think I know the team very well and think I can make better wagers on or against them. I make as many wagers against my teams as I do on them,

Quote: DRich

Your thoughts are similar to most people but I look at it just the opposite. If there is any team that I root for I probably watch more of their games than any other teams. With that in mind I think I know the team very well and think I can make better wagers on or against them. I make as many wagers against my teams as I do on them,

For me that is the same except I also listen to a lot of sports talk. I think listening to the local talk shows give me a false sense.

kewlj-

It's obvious that you and I are the ONLY sports bettors that ever lose. Everyone else on internet forums and social media sites pick nothing but winners. Of course, we find out who they picked and how much they bet AFTER the game is over.

I lost money on the Eagles last night too. I made a $100 in-game bet: Eagles +7.5 after Arizona went up 7-0.

And, proof that I enjoy getting kicked in the nuts- I just bet another $100 on Eagles -3 against Redskins day after Christmas.

I lost every straight bet I made this season on NFL.... Seahawks early and then against the lions when they had their rally after their bye week.

I do terrible picking NFL games. I probably made 35 bets this year and won about 12 of them.

You made a prediction prior to the game starting, put thought into it and it didnt work out. More that other people do, better luck next time.