NokTang
NokTang
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December 6th, 2015 at 6:50:42 PM permalink
I've always tried to figure out what the lines will be on the bowl games, then see how "good" I am.

Anyone have early lines on these games?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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December 7th, 2015 at 6:37:33 AM permalink
Somebody told me the "Vegas Superbook" has the two semi-finals at Alabama -9.5 over Michigan State and Oklahoma -2.5 over Clemson.

Yes, the #1 team is supposedly an underdog, but one theory is, Vegas is expecting a lot of Oklahoma money anyway.
NokTang
NokTang
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December 7th, 2015 at 7:15:16 AM permalink
There doesn't seem to be much interest in college football on this forum. That's a shame because money can be won on it.

The lines are now basically out other than a few games.

Oklahoma is on sort of a run, but bowl games and now playoffs are a different beast.

I read an article about Alabama opening at such a high number considering how well Michigan State has played and their strength of schedule. Of course, as we both know, lines also consider how the public will bet.
DRich
DRich
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December 7th, 2015 at 7:22:29 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

There doesn't seem to be much interest in college football on this forum. That's a shame because money can be won on it.



I agree and really don't understand why. To me the game is much more interesting because of all the different types of offenses. There are also lots more good betting opportunities.
Order from chaos
NokTang
NokTang
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December 16th, 2015 at 3:36:34 PM permalink
I had a dream last night, and remembered it this morning...

Baylor is going to win and cover vs. North Carolina....

Have no idea where this dream came from. I'm not a fan of either team.

Does anyone have any insight on the dream or the game itself. My quick research this morning before going to the office indicates there is a quarterback issue with Baylor?

Thank you in advance. A lot of traveling and money is involved in this historic dream.

A third string quarterback with two losses going into the bowl game...Difficult to be confident.....
Help me please.....

---

Baylor quarterback Chris Johnson will start the Russell Athletic Bowl against North Carolina as Jarrett Stidham remains out with an ankle injury, coach Art Briles said Monday, according to the Orlando Sentinel.

“It doesn't look like [Stidham is] going to be ready,” Briles said.

Stidham, a freshman, stepped in for the Bears when starting quarterback Seth Russell was knocked out after seven games with a season-ending neck injury. Stidham started three games, two wins and one loss, before sustaining an ankle injury that sidelined him for the season’s two remaining games. Johnson started both of those games, both of which were losses.
NokTang
NokTang
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December 29th, 2015 at 8:23:27 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

I had a dream last night, and remembered it this morning...

Baylor is going to win and cover vs. North Carolina....

Have no idea where this dream came from. I'm not a fan of either team.
.



Well, here I sit. No bet on Baylor. Too stupid and cheap to fly over to Phnom Penh and make the "dream wager". I know some of you can relate, you have not just a gut feeling but a dream! about a winner, then sit around and don't bet it. I don't have an online bookie, not allowed in Thailand and you have to be sophisticated to bypass the computers, something called "VPN" which shows you in another place? All said, I just don't trust them. There is a high limit brick and motar sportsbook a one hour flight away, and I"m too stupid and lazy to fly...I feel like a real dumbass now...

I also like Clemson plus 3 1/2 but didn't wake up with this dream. Just like Clemson. Oh well, back to the booze and women.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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December 29th, 2015 at 10:10:57 PM permalink
On the OK game, I don't think lines are really made that way. Like the superbook is expecting people to bet on OK, so they are going to set a line that is off by 3 points. They'd get buried in smart money. Though OK-2.5 is looking nice now.

Some exceptions to this, like the Super Bowl where there is a real mountain of public money. But for the most part, I think they try to make accurate numbers and then let the market dictate.

I'm all ears for methods of making money on college. I bet a few games a year where I think there's some kind of overreaction, though I don't know if I have an edge there. I like the futures and Heisman. Week to week is tough though.

The main difference is the key numbers are stronger in the NFL, which is probably why people on this forum favor it. It allows for more of an AP approach and less of a handicapping one.

I do have some money on Houston vs. FSU. Included them in a couple parlays.
NokTang
NokTang
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December 29th, 2015 at 10:39:06 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux


I do have some money on Houston vs. FSU. Included them in a couple parlays.



Which side do you like ?
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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December 29th, 2015 at 10:42:40 PM permalink
I took Houston +7.5 on parlay cards. With the FSU QB situation, I figured the spread could only move down.

I noticed -6.5 at Wynn and thought about middling but it's gone now. I figure betting either side of 7 at -110 can't be too bad if you can find it and it's a bit off the market price.
NokTang
NokTang
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December 31st, 2015 at 7:34:39 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

I took Houston +7.5 on parlay cards. With the FSU QB situation, I figured the spread could only move down.

I noticed -6.5 at Wynn and thought about middling but it's gone now. I figure betting either side of 7 at -110 can't be too bad if you can find it and it's a bit off the market price.



Good pick. My Clemson pick also came in but as with Baylor, I didn't win any money, not a dime, not a dollar, not a Baht. I'm feeling as stupid and cheap as a man can feel. A chance to win two locks right in front of my door and I don't want to get on a plane and go bet it. A year's living expenses could have been paid by the book but no, I'll have to work and hate every second of it since I could have just made two bets and been quite happy for all of 2016. Two.

Happy New Year....not for me.

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