Sports betting and Earning Supplemental income
Basketball is the "new frontier" so to speak, but good luck getting a clean data set. Someone also mentioned Hockey as a possible play, but I have no idea if that's realistic or not.
On "riding someones coattails": you won't find an advantage player on the planet willing to just give up valuable information for nothing in exchange. The second other people start making the same bets as them, they lose some of their edge due to exposure.
To be a successful advantage player, especially in sports betting, you really need to have some stats/analytics abilities to crunch numbers yourself. It's a lot more work than most people think. The only serious/successful sports bettors I know are really prominent math guys like the Wizard, or PHDs with immense coding/machine learning knowledge.
Quote: Pinit2winitJust to reiterate I did say I could work a % deal out and that I guarentee if someone is afraid of my small bets effecting the spread in any way they are way too paranoid. Thanks for the other info though man I do appreciate the timely response.
Again though, why would they give you the information for a % of the profit when they can make the bets themselves and keep all of the profit? Sure they mitigate a bit of risk but it's not worth giving out the information.
Quote: DRichGo bet as much as you can on Michigan St -3 and on Iowa +3.5. Those numbers are available in Vegas as I write this.
Why if they play eachother...
EDIT: My book offers only 3.5 for both
EDIT: Assuming MI wins by 3 you push and iowa pays?
Quote: Pinit2winitAssuming MI wins by 3 you push and iowa pays?
Yes, I think it is a good low risk play. At most you can only lose the juice and if Mich St wins by a field goal you collect.
Now you owe me 10% of your wins.
Quote: DonutsI don't sports bet but the people I know who do tell me Baseball/Football aren't the best opportunities anymore because everyone and their mother has access to the data and analytics power to gain an edge, the bookies know it, and they'll stop taking your action once they see you're a winner.
Basketball is the "new frontier" so to speak, but good luck getting a clean data set. Someone also mentioned Hockey as a possible play, but I have no idea if that's realistic or not.
On "riding someones coattails": you won't find an advantage player on the planet willing to just give up valuable information for nothing in exchange. The second other people start making the same bets as them, they lose some of their edge due to exposure.
To be a successful advantage player, especially in sports betting, you really need to have some stats/analytics abilities to crunch numbers yourself. It's a lot more work than most people think. The only serious/successful sports bettors I know are really prominent math guys like the Wizard, or PHDs with immense coding/machine learning knowledge.
I don't think you need to be that smart in todays age with all the software out there that can crunch your numbers for you. Google
Rebelbetting
Quote: DonutsAgain though, why would they give you the information for a % of the profit when they can make the bets themselves and keep all of the profit? Sure they mitigate a bit of risk but it's not worth giving out the information.
I would have given the Wizard a BR the beginning of this year and asked him to bet me right along with him on the half-point parlays (since I can't do it from here) for some agreed-upon %age if he would. However, I don't know how many times he's said he has trouble putting down all the money he wants to bet as it is, so I never asked. I can vicariously enjoy that he seems to be well ahead on them this year, though. Go, Mike!
Quote: Pinit2winitI'm really looking for someone to ride their coattails maybe around a 60% win rate possibly to get a system worked out for me etc etc.
You should know that winning 60% of games is worth about $1 million in the NFL. More in college or NBA. Would be pretty nice to find, but don't think anyone is going to give you that sort of profit margin just because you ask in an internet chat room.
Most everything for tonight has already started; something for later:
Michigan State -3 is ok, close to break even. Iowa +3.5 is not.
Texas +21 is available right now, as is Oakland under 44.5. Both are close to 53%
EDIT: ev ery "cash in " leaves with 8 "chances" to restart again from "ground 0"
Quote: Pinit2winitAlso i will accept help from 1 partner who is a good capper and go 50./50 until the 1 million mark.
That means you would be paying $500,000. That is way too much. You should ask for bids from as many people as you can and go with the best offer. I would do it for a flat fee of $2,500 per month, which is less than half what you are willing to pay to start out and will save you about $400,000 over the next few years. Wouldn't you like to have an extra $400,000 to do whatever you want with?
Quote: TomG
Michigan State -3 is ok, close to break even. Iowa +3.5 is not.
I am just a novice bettor, are you saying that betting Mich St -3 and Iowa +3.5 is not a plus ev bet? How negative is it?
How often do 3 point favorites win by 3? Don't sports books usually charge -125 to move a game off of 3? It seems to me that getting both sides at -110 instead of -125 would leave a positive expectation.
Quote: TomG
Michigan State -3 is ok, close to break even. Iowa +3.5 is not.
I am just a novice bettor, are you saying that betting Mich St -3 and Iowa +3.5 is not a plus ev bet? How negative is it?
How often do 3 point favorites win by 3? Don't sports books usually charge -125 to move a game off of 3? It seems to me that getting both sides at -110 instead of -125 would leave a positive expectation.
Quote: TomGyou should have no problem earning well over $100,000 in the first year. Definitely a decent supplemental income.
Is $100k, now only considered a decent 'supplemental' income?
Quote: kewljIs $100k, now only considered a decent 'supplemental' income?
Depends on where you live. A ghetto here in Detroit and you're high society. In Beverly Hills, CA you're a bum.
Quote: TomGIf you can keep winning six games in a row throughout the year, you should have no problem earning well over $100,000 in the first year. Definitely a decent supplemental income.
That means you would be paying $500,000. That is way too much. You should ask for bids from as many people as you can and go with the best offer. I would do it for a flat fee of $2,500 per month, which is less than half what you are willing to pay to start out and will save you about $400,000 over the next few years. Wouldn't you like to have an extra $400,000 to do whatever you want with?
How much are you winning from sports betting each year?
Are you are offering to give this guy winning bets for $2500 a month?
Quote: Pinit2winitHonestly ik not stingy and if the person who I find with picks would want to be 50/50 I would have no issue. Say we did make the 1mil mark. At this point you could cash out and start with 50k bets about 8 chances to get 4 correct for another 800k... could be the start of a great relationship ya know.
Just out of curiosity, are you at all familiar with how difficult it is to bet the levels you are describing? In Vegas, a good sports handicapper will end up being banned or bet restricted, just like other advantage player. If he is a consistent winner, the casinos don't want his action. Then he has to resort to using 'runners' to place smaller bets, spreading his action out all over town. It gets to the point that just getting the action down is the difficult part.
But, your mention of "my sportsbook" leads me to believe you are not talking about Vegas. Is it your intent to place wagers of $50k to hundreds of thousands of dollars through online sportsbooks AND THEN COLLECT? Good luck with that. I think you need to re-think your little fantasy scenario a bit.
Quote: kewljIs $100k, now only considered a decent 'supplemental' income?
I make only around 60k a year. This would be roth ira catch up and savings money. My wife hasn't held a job since we had our now 3 year old so that comes into effect. Honestly who doesn't wa t more money anyways. It won't be play money it will be used to secure my families future.
Quote: Pinit2winitI make only around 60k a year. This would be roth ira catch up and savings money. My wife hasn't held a job since we had our now 3 year old so that comes into effect. Honestly who doesn't wa t more money anyways. It won't be play money it will be used to secure my families future.
I think the better answer for you would be to buy Powerball tickets with the money saved for your families future. At least with Powerball you will only need to win once to secure their future. Every time your 3 year old skips a meal it would allow you to buy another 2 or so tickets.
Are you and TomG working together? Are you the same person?
Quote: DRichI think the better answer for you would be to buy Powerball tickets with the money saved for your families future. At least with Powerball you will only need to win once to secure their future. Every time your 3 year old skips a meal it would allow you to buy another 2 or so tickets.
AS i stated before im up like 2-3k for vegas and i have a side fun of gambling money that is strictly that. My kid would never go without a meal.
Quote: DRichI am just a novice bettor, are you saying that betting Mich St -3 and Iowa +3.5 is not a plus ev bet? How negative is it?
Michigan State -3 -110 is very close to break even (maybe a slight negative expectation), Iowa +3.5 -110 has an EV of around -2.5%, based on current market prices. The market may not be efficient, but if you can identify any inefficiency you should have already earned millions betting on them
Quote: DRichHow often do 3 point favorites win by 3? Don't sports books usually charge -125 to move a game off of 3? It seems to me that getting both sides at -110 instead of -125 would leave a positive expectation.
In the NFL three point favorites push around 9-10% of the time, in college it is around 6%, based on what I remember from the last time I checked push rates. Most any time you buy or sell points you pay a commission; although you pay -125 to move off the 3, the no-vig price is around +/- 114 in college football (over 120 in the NFL)
If you want winning bet for tonight, there is Anaheim under 5 +130 and Air Force first half under 81.5. If it's too late for you to bet those there is also Western Kentucky -7 on Saturday and Redskins money line -190 on Sunday.
Quote: kewljIs it your intent to place wagers of $50k to hundreds of thousands of dollars through online sportsbooks AND THEN COLLECT? Good luck with that. I think you need to re-think your little fantasy scenario a bit.
Placing $50k and collecting is most definitely doable online. Don't know about US citizens (too much restrictions) , but for an UK and probably CA or any European or Asian (no third world countries obviously) or South American citizen, just 6 or 7 selected bookies and exchanges will swallow that action and pay the winnings no worries. Even a single betting exchange is enough given the volume offered is there.
Quote: TomGPinit,
If you want winning bet for tonight, there is Anaheim under 5 +130 and Air Force first half under 81.5. If it's too late for you to bet those there is also Western Kentucky -7 on Saturday and Redskins money line -190 on Sunday.
Thank you very much. I was at work all night but I did have a bet on msu to beat louville. -250 .... it paid out luckily. Thanks thought for the info. If you pm me next time you get something like this it will give a notification on my phone. I don't check wov until after work but I do see my phone periodically during the shift.
Quote: kewljJust out of curiosity, are you at all familiar with how difficult it is to bet the levels you are describing? In Vegas, a good sports handicapper will end up being banned or bet restricted, just like other advantage player. If he is a consistent winner, the casinos don't want his action. Then he has to resort to using 'runners' to place smaller bets, spreading his action out all over town. It gets to the point that just getting the action down is the difficult part.
But, your mention of "my sportsbook" leads me to believe you are not talking about Vegas. Is it your intent to place wagers of $50k to hundreds of thousands of dollars through online sportsbooks AND THEN COLLECT? Good luck with that. I think you need to re-think your little fantasy scenario a bit.
Well condiscending tone aside .... I am in vegas. My book I refer to is the one I have on my phone for ease of access "william hill". Also I believe mirage takes no question asked bets up to 25k and the M takes even higher.... Thanks for your thoughts though. I know I will lose but in time I only need one or two 6 streak bets. Waiting the right time and with some luck I think it can happen therefore I will make it happen.
Quote: Pinit2winitNay sayers.... http://www.makegamedayeveryday.com/newsfeed/2015/11/18/10152/i-turned-300-into-over-100000-heres-my-story
Well, this guy in particular sounds like he has absolutely no idea what he is doing.
Betting big on games he thought "have no doubt the favorite will win" is a recipe for a disaster.
Like someone on his AMA said "Please do another AMA after you turn $100K into $0":)
And...DRich gets to do the "I told you so" dance.Quote: DRichGo bet as much as you can on Michigan St -3 and on Iowa +3.5. Those numbers are available in Vegas as I write this.
Anybody get money down on this bet?
EDIT: my doubling up method i am now at 600$ from 60ish taking a couple moneyline parlays along the way
Quote: Pinit2winitMore fun to sports bet.
So you are in it for the fun? Thought you were trying to win money, my bad.
Just to be clear I am not rooting against you. I hope you get lucky and succeed in your goal. It just seems that you think it is easy. I will be interested to see if you have then gonads to bet 19k when you get there, especially when that amount of money seems to be meaningful.
Hopefully you layed the 3 and not 3.5.Quote: Pinit2winitI layed heavy on Mi state .... if it counts.
EDIT: my doubling up method i am now at 600$ from 60ish taking a couple moneyline parlays along the way
Good job on your wins. Please post your plays before the games start so we can all follow along.
Quote: DRichHopefully you layed the 3 and not 3.5.
Good job on your wins. Please post your plays before the games start so we can all follow along.
Or at least right after the game starts or no one is going to believe your wins.
Quote: teddysAnd...DRich gets to do the "I told you so" dance.
Anybody get money down on this bet?
It was a bittersweet victory for me. I graduated from Iowa.
+100Quote: DRichPlease post your plays before the games start so we can all follow along.
'
Edit. I took the moneyline on that game Drich as my second half was weary of the 3. i thought it would be a blowout but hell, hats off to iowa that was a f#$%ing hell of a defense.
Edit 2: I will always root for anyone on this forum to win money from a book/casino/bet they place as The goal here should be taking all that money back that vegas makes.
Quote: JamixI don't think you need to be that smart in todays age with all the software out there that can crunch your numbers for you. Google
Rebelbetting
Google of all now days. Good guidance.
Maryland ML over UCONN, Neutral court and Madison Square Garden NY. Spread was 1.5 but after last nights loss by 1 pt that could've been a win by 1 i wont be taking spreads on games that close.
Maryland ML -130 bet = 400 win = 707
