Pinit2winit
Pinit2winit
Joined: Sep 8, 2015
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December 1st, 2015 at 10:48:12 AM permalink
I know it IS possible... Just out of curiosity does anyone on here do this aside of NFL? NBA offers so many games to bet on and so does NCAA F or B. Feel free to PM me if you're too shy to post on here or aren't trying to give the world your "secrets". I'm really looking for someone to ride their coattails maybe around a 60% win rate possibly to get a system worked out for me etc etc. I'm even willing to pay a % of winnings. I am really trying to get into some AP or Sports betting in the following year for extra cash. I just moved to Vegas a few month ago, im working with house money still riding off a 7 team parlay (Thanks wiz) and a 1600 slot hit. Any help appreciated! JUST IN CASE YOU'RE SCARED... In Oct alone Vegas took 33mil in sports betting, Helping little ol me wont hurt you at all. ANY and ALL critique or comments welcomed and appreciated in advance.
Donuts
Donuts
Joined: Oct 17, 2014
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December 1st, 2015 at 11:25:42 AM permalink
I don't sports bet but the people I know who do tell me Baseball/Football aren't the best opportunities anymore because everyone and their mother has access to the data and analytics power to gain an edge, the bookies know it, and they'll stop taking your action once they see you're a winner.

Basketball is the "new frontier" so to speak, but good luck getting a clean data set. Someone also mentioned Hockey as a possible play, but I have no idea if that's realistic or not.

On "riding someones coattails": you won't find an advantage player on the planet willing to just give up valuable information for nothing in exchange. The second other people start making the same bets as them, they lose some of their edge due to exposure.

To be a successful advantage player, especially in sports betting, you really need to have some stats/analytics abilities to crunch numbers yourself. It's a lot more work than most people think. The only serious/successful sports bettors I know are really prominent math guys like the Wizard, or PHDs with immense coding/machine learning knowledge.
Pinit2winit
Pinit2winit
Joined: Sep 8, 2015
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December 1st, 2015 at 11:53:23 AM permalink
Just to reiterate I did say I could work a % deal out and that I guarentee if someone is afraid of my small bets effecting the spread in any way they are way too paranoid. Thanks for the other info though man I do appreciate the timely response.
Donuts
Donuts
Joined: Oct 17, 2014
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December 1st, 2015 at 12:02:52 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

Just to reiterate I did say I could work a % deal out and that I guarentee if someone is afraid of my small bets effecting the spread in any way they are way too paranoid. Thanks for the other info though man I do appreciate the timely response.



Again though, why would they give you the information for a % of the profit when they can make the bets themselves and keep all of the profit? Sure they mitigate a bit of risk but it's not worth giving out the information.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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December 1st, 2015 at 12:22:57 PM permalink
Go bet as much as you can on Michigan St -3 and on Iowa +3.5. Those numbers are available in Vegas as I write this.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Pinit2winit
Pinit2winit
Joined: Sep 8, 2015
  • Threads: 25
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December 1st, 2015 at 2:16:56 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Go bet as much as you can on Michigan St -3 and on Iowa +3.5. Those numbers are available in Vegas as I write this.



Why if they play eachother...

EDIT: My book offers only 3.5 for both

EDIT: Assuming MI wins by 3 you push and iowa pays?
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 74
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December 1st, 2015 at 2:50:42 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

Assuming MI wins by 3 you push and iowa pays?



Yes, I think it is a good low risk play. At most you can only lose the juice and if Mich St wins by a field goal you collect.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
djatc
djatc
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
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December 1st, 2015 at 2:58:02 PM permalink
Have you been following the half point cards thread. The Wizard gives out free picks. It's worth a lot.

Now you owe me 10% of your wins.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Jamix
Jamix
Joined: Sep 25, 2013
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 39
December 1st, 2015 at 3:30:02 PM permalink
Quote: Donuts

I don't sports bet but the people I know who do tell me Baseball/Football aren't the best opportunities anymore because everyone and their mother has access to the data and analytics power to gain an edge, the bookies know it, and they'll stop taking your action once they see you're a winner.

Basketball is the "new frontier" so to speak, but good luck getting a clean data set. Someone also mentioned Hockey as a possible play, but I have no idea if that's realistic or not.

On "riding someones coattails": you won't find an advantage player on the planet willing to just give up valuable information for nothing in exchange. The second other people start making the same bets as them, they lose some of their edge due to exposure.

To be a successful advantage player, especially in sports betting, you really need to have some stats/analytics abilities to crunch numbers yourself. It's a lot more work than most people think. The only serious/successful sports bettors I know are really prominent math guys like the Wizard, or PHDs with immense coding/machine learning knowledge.



I don't think you need to be that smart in todays age with all the software out there that can crunch your numbers for you. Google
Rebelbetting
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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December 1st, 2015 at 3:34:53 PM permalink
Quote: Donuts

Again though, why would they give you the information for a % of the profit when they can make the bets themselves and keep all of the profit? Sure they mitigate a bit of risk but it's not worth giving out the information.



I would have given the Wizard a BR the beginning of this year and asked him to bet me right along with him on the half-point parlays (since I can't do it from here) for some agreed-upon %age if he would. However, I don't know how many times he's said he has trouble putting down all the money he wants to bet as it is, so I never asked. I can vicariously enjoy that he seems to be well ahead on them this year, though. Go, Mike!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

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