Super Bowl 2016 Props
Quote: AyecarumbaI recall they were in a 4th and 24 inside of their red zone. I think their options were to try to get a pass interference call (which was not going to happen on Peyton Manning night), or kick it and hope for a muffed reception or a fumble recovery after the kick. Given the yardage and their field position, I think Carolina made the right call of the crummy choices available.
I would have punted as well - but I would have aimed for the sideline. They needed the two minute warning as an additional clock stoppage, but by Denver letting the ball roll, by the time a Carolina player could get to it and down it, the time had gone past 2:00, so the two minute warning happened when the clock would have stopped for the change of possession anyway; in effect, Carolina gave away a time out.
I mean, I know this analysis is amazingly naive and doesn't account for asymmetrical result distributions that will lead to clumping on the under side, but... from 51% to 61% is a hell of a lot of ground to make up. I've been staring at stats for a couple of hours trying to decide if I believe it.
Wizard, did you happen to do a double-check along the lines of "for each prop, if I bet it at the calculator-suggested price for all games in my dataset, I am neither getting rich nor getting crushed"?
Hope that helps.
I sucked out on my last bet. Carolina 1st half points vs. total goals in the beanpot (a pair of college hockey games). Carolina managed just a touchdown, compared to a 13 point line. The first beanpot game was 5-1. But the second was 1-0. Whew!
"A total of $132.5 million was wagered at the state's 194 sports books on Sunday's game, according to figures released by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. The books showed a win of $13.3 million for a hold percentage of 10.1."
http://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/football/super-bowl/nevada-set-super-bowl-record-wagering-handle-1325-million
Some books didn't do as well as others, but overall they did just fine...
Quote: ThatDonGuyI would have punted as well - but I would have aimed for the sideline. They needed the two minute warning as an additional clock stoppage, but by Denver letting the ball roll, by the time a Carolina player could get to it and down it, the time had gone past 2:00, so the two minute warning happened when the clock would have stopped for the change of possession anyway; in effect, Carolina gave away a time out.
I don't know if that would have helped given the time left which IIRC was 2:08. You have the snap back to the punter, the 2-3 steps of walk-up and the kick. A kick is typically between 4-5 seconds in the air and the clock doesn't stop in football until the ball lands, not when it crosses the line. Best case scenario, if everything went off without a hitch was 2:01. I personally think that is too thin of a margin of error to attempt a punt in that scenario, given the fact they needed the play to end prior to the 2:00 warning to save 40 seconds because they only had 2 timeouts.
Quote: RigondeauxThat's one I wonder about. With +115 being there and -120 being there forever, AND it sailing over, perhaps something was unaccounted for. Could also be just a poor result, obviously.
Here is a table of the number of punts in every game in my database.
| Punts | Total | Probability | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 0.000726 | 0.000726 |
| 1 | 4 | 0.000968 | 0.001695 |
| 2 | 16 | 0.003873 | 0.005568 |
| 3 | 65 | 0.015735 | 0.021302 |
| 4 | 113 | 0.027354 | 0.048656 |
| 5 | 229 | 0.055435 | 0.104091 |
| 6 | 321 | 0.077705 | 0.181796 |
| 7 | 386 | 0.093440 | 0.275236 |
| 8 | 483 | 0.116921 | 0.392157 |
| 9 | 483 | 0.116921 | 0.509078 |
| 10 | 484 | 0.117163 | 0.626241 |
| 11 | 401 | 0.097071 | 0.723312 |
| 12 | 335 | 0.081094 | 0.804406 |
| 13 | 250 | 0.060518 | 0.864924 |
| 14 | 224 | 0.054224 | 0.919148 |
| 15 | 145 | 0.035100 | 0.954248 |
| 16 | 81 | 0.019608 | 0.973856 |
| 17 | 37 | 0.008957 | 0.982813 |
| 18 | 34 | 0.008230 | 0.991043 |
| 19 | 17 | 0.004115 | 0.995159 |
| 20 | 12 | 0.002905 | 0.998063 |
| 21 | 5 | 0.001210 | 0.999274 |
| 22 | 3 | 0.000726 | 1.000000 |
| Total | 4131 | 1.000000 |
The average is 9.6272.
50.9% of games have 9 or less and 62.6% have 10 or less.
There were 15 in Super Bowl 50. Only 8.1% of NFL games in my data have had that many or more. Why were there so many, in a game with a total of 45? I don't know. Maybe it was just chance or maybe there is something I wasn't seeing. I can say that I've bet on the total punts all season long at 5 Dimes and have done quite well on that one.
Quote: RonCThe books seem to have done okay in the Super Bowl betting. Sure, Von Miller cost them some money over other possible MVPs, but don't cry too much for them:
I was really surprised to read that (miller costing the books). I would have thought the majority of money would have been on Newton.
I took the under on punts as well. Carolina's opponents averaged 4.9 punts a game this season and 3.5 for the playoffs.
Quote: Wizard...There were 15 in Super Bowl 50. Only 8.1% of NFL games in my data have had that many or more. Why were there so many, in a game with a total of 45? I don't know. Maybe it was just chance or maybe there is something I wasn't seeing. I can say that I've bet on the total punts all season long at 5 Dimes and have done quite well on that one.
The total was only 34, not 45... or are you referring to the O/U prior to the start of the game?
Probably just a random occurrence related to the low score. If we knew the game would be so low scoring ahead of time, we could just bet that.
Quote: AyecarumbaThe total was only 34, not 45... or are you referring to the O/U prior to the start of the game?
Yes. I had no way to know the actual total would be 34 when I analyzed the props for the game.
Quote: steeldco.....However, one thing that I thought was really dumb, strategically, was Rivera winning the coin toss and opting to kick. Really? You've got one of the better offenses in the league and although you face a fantastic defense, if you can manage to get in front then you gain a tremendous edge .... .
I just don't think it was very smart on Rivera's part.
More than 80% of the opening kickoffs are deferred.
If the deferring team has possession at the end of the second quarter, they get a second straight possession at the start of the second half.
This allows the possibility to score twice and control the game before the other team gets the ball.
When you have the highest scoring Offense in the NFL, deferring is a smart decision.
Quote: steeldcoI understand that is the common wisdom, however, in the case of these two teams, I believe that it was a monumental blunder on Rivera's part.
If you "need" the opening kickoff to win your bet, I'd say you're doing it wrong.
Denver was the right side. Didn't matter who got the ball first.
As a longtime sports bettor I never said "I like team X, but if they don't get the opening kickoff, Im screwed."
Quote: steeldcoAll I am saying is that it would have helped matters had they taken the kickoff.
Not against that pass rush.
Newton was sacked six times, knocked down 13 times and hurried 18 times.
He's lucky the grounds crew in Levi Stadium can't figure out how to grow grass in California.
With better traction, things would only have been worse for him.
Edit: BTW, he blundered because he was a follower of supposed common wisdom. Sheep......and I like Rivera.
Quote: WizardThank you for all the kind words of encouragement.
I lost about 30% of money bet, or about $9,000. A least I didn't bet that much in total compared to other years.
It looked like there was almost a safety on Carolina's last play before the final punt. That would have really added insult to injury.
I only lost about 10% of prop bets for $2,500. But besides Denver scoring in all 4 quarters, too many field goals and too many punts, the biggest insult was that I bet lines of +175 for biggest lead under 13.5 (model says +160) and +120 for biggest lead over 14.5 (model says -102). You don't have to remind me what the final score was. The 2-pt conversion hurt me in more ways than one.
Quote: steeldcoEdit: BTW, he blundered because he was a follower of supposed common wisdom. Sheep......and I like Rivera.
Wisdom (whether common or uncommon) says it is virtually meaningless in deciding which team ends up playing better ... and Denver played far better than Carolina.
Quote: TomGWisdom (whether common or uncommon) says it is virtually meaningless in deciding which team ends up playing better ... and Denver played far better than Carolina.
I wish that I had some stats on how often the higher ranked offensive team wins if they receive the kickoff.
I agree. Just like a front running horse should get the lead and let other horses trying to chase. Like catch me if you can. Use your advantage wisely. but I like the result because I had $100 on Denver.Quote: steeldcoI wish that I had some stats on how often the higher ranked offensive team wins if they receive the kickoff.
