Super Bowl 2016 Props
November 19th, 2015 at 4:04:16 PM
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This topic has already been touched on in other threads but I think it is time for a home of its own. One reason is the Golden Nugget has already released props on the game. In fact, here are some pictures of them. Click on any image for a larger version. They are partially out of order.
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I'll give my recommendations tomorrow. I want to bet into them again one more time before I do (sorry for the selfishness).
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I'll give my recommendations tomorrow. I want to bet into them again one more time before I do (sorry for the selfishness).
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 19th, 2015 at 4:11:48 PM
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Is it NFC -2.5 to win on page 1? I would think the Patriots in the AFC would be the early favorites.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 19th, 2015 at 5:43:43 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaIs it NFC -2.5 to win on page 1? I would think the Patriots in the AFC would be the early favorites.
Agree, if I was in Vegas now I'd bet on the AFC as a dog
November 19th, 2015 at 6:30:18 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaIs it NFC -2.5 to win on page 1? I would think the Patriots in the AFC would be the early favorites.
Yup. Lots of sports books have that one, not just the Golden Nugget. I don't handicap, so I'm leaving that one alone.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 19th, 2015 at 6:34:21 PM
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Here is an updated list of the big bridge jumpers from weeks 1 to 10 this year. I'm listing previous years back to 2000 as a point of comparison. Surprisingly, to me at least, the rule change about the extra point after a touchdown hasn't caused I sharp increase in two point conversions.
Nothing like a chart to make trends, or the lack of them, easier to see.
| Year | Safety | Overtime | 2 pt Conv |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 6.2% | 5.4% | 14.1% |
| 2001 | 4.2% | 6.9% | 14.7% |
| 2002 | 4.5% | 9.4% | 14.8% |
| 2003 | 7.1% | 9.7% | 11.8% |
| 2004 | 6.0% | 5.2% | 11.8% |
| 2005 | 4.1% | 5.3% | 9.8% |
| 2006 | 5.2% | 4.5% | 9.4% |
| 2007 | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.8% |
| 2008 | 8.2% | 5.6% | 10.3% |
| 2009 | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.7% |
| 2010 | 5.3% | 7.2% | 9.6% |
| 2011 | 8.2% | 5.6% | 8.2% |
| 2012 | 5.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% |
| 2013 | 8.2% | 6.1% | 10.9% |
| 2014 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 11.2% |
| 2015 | 6.2% | 9.6% | 13.0% |
| Total | 6.2% | 6.5% | 10.9% |
Nothing like a chart to make trends, or the lack of them, easier to see.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 19th, 2015 at 7:19:08 PM
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I wish I'd gotten money down on the 2PT thing...
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
November 20th, 2015 at 9:31:58 AM
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Quote: WizardYup. Lots of sports books have that one, not just the Golden Nugget. I don't handicap, so I'm leaving that one alone.
However, you just admitted you may be betting the heck out of it today before recommending it TOMORROW!
November 20th, 2015 at 4:16:30 PM
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Quote: Wizard
Nothing like a chart to make trends, or the lack of them, easier to see.
Thanks Wizard!
Safety negatively correlated to Overtime?
2 pt. Conversion and Overtime positively correlated?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 20th, 2015 at 4:24:23 PM
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Quote: WizardYup. Lots of sports books have that one, not just the Golden Nugget. I don't handicap, so I'm leaving that one alone.
Does anyone see any of these teams beating the Patriots by 3+?
Odds to win the 2015-16 NFC Conference
Arizona Cardinals 11/4
Carolina Panthers 3/1
Green Bay Packers 9/2
Minnesota Vikings 5/1
New York Giants 8/1
Seattle Seahawks 10/1
Philadelphia Eagles 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 28/1
Dallas Cowboys 33/1
St. Louis Rams 33/1
Chicago Bears 50/1
Washington Redskins 50/1
New Orleans Saints 125/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 200/1
Detroit Lions 250/1
San Francisco 49ers 250/1
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 20th, 2015 at 4:38:08 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaThanks Wizard!
Safety negatively correlated to Overtime?
2 pt. Conversion and Overtime positively correlated?
You're welcome.
The overtime probability is highly correlated to a small spread, for obvious reasons. The probability of a safety is not very correlated to either spread or total. You can count on it being close to 6.2% all the time (except maybe Super Bowls). I think the ups and down in the graph are just normal variation.
The two-point conversions is what I find interesting. There is a clear pattern of dropping and then increasing. I can see why this year might be on the high end with the extra point rule change but it has been on the increase for four years now.
On another topic, here are some of the fair lines on some of the Golden Nugget props. Have at it!
| Prop | Golden Nugget | Fair |
|---|---|---|
| Overtime -- NO | -800 | -1475 |
| Team to score first wins | -180 | -180 |
| Team to score last wins | -210 | -229 |
| First score is a touchdown | -160 | -148 |
| Safety -- NO | -700 | -1506 |
| Two-point conversion -- NO | -330 | -833 |
| Scoreless quarter | 280 | 252 |
| Total points odd | -130 | -125 |
| Any quarter tied | 105 | -131 |
| Last score is a touchdown | -200 | -169 |
| Game tied after 0-0 | 135 | 138 |
I love any quarter tied at +105.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 20th, 2015 at 4:52:36 PM
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Quote: Wizard
I love any quarter tied at +105.
Why would "Game tied after 0-0" pay more than "Any quarter tied"? I would think "any tie" would happen much more often. Is it market pressure rather than actual probability?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 20th, 2015 at 4:57:25 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaWhy would "Game tied after 0-0" pay more than "Any quarter tied"? I would think "any tie" would happen much more often. Is it market pressure rather than actual probability?
"Any quarter tied" doesn't refer to the total points scored by the end of the quarter but only the points scored within that quarter. So, for example, if any quarter were 7-7, that bet would win, and the other quarters wouldn't matter.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 20th, 2015 at 4:58:21 PM
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Quote: WizardYou're welcome.
The overtime probability is highly correlated to a small spread, for obvious reasons. The probability of a safety is not very correlated to either spread or total. You can count on it being close to 6.2% all the time (except maybe Super Bowls). I think the ups and down in the graph are just normal variation.
The two-point conversions is what I find interesting. There is a clear pattern of dropping and then increasing. I can see why this year might be on the high end with the extra point rule change but it has been on the increase for four years now.
On another topic, here are some of the fair lines on some of the Golden Nugget props. Have at it!
Prop Golden Nugget Fair Overtime -- NO -800 -1475 Team to score first wins -180 -180 Team to score last wins -210 -229 First score is a touchdown -160 -148 Safety -- NO -700 -1506 Two-point conversion -- NO -330 -833 Scoreless quarter 280 252 Total points odd -130 -125 Any quarter tied 105 -131 Last score is a touchdown -200 -169 Game tied after 0-0 135 138
I love any quarter tied at +105.
"Two-point conversion -- NO" = "No successful 2 pt conversions", yes? As opposed to "No attempted 2 pt. conversions"?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 20th, 2015 at 5:21:28 PM
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Thanks for the clarification. Does it also win if both teams are scoreless in a frame?Quote: Wizard"Any quarter tied" doesn't refer to the total points scored by the end of the quarter but only the points scored within that quarter. So, for example, if any quarter were 7-7, that bet would win, and the other quarters wouldn't matter.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 21st, 2015 at 2:26:34 AM
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Quote: Ayecarumba"Two-point conversion -- NO" = "No successful 2 pt conversions", yes? As opposed to "No attempted 2 pt. conversions"?
It means no SUCCESSFUL two-point conversions.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 21st, 2015 at 2:26:47 AM
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Quote: AyecarumbaThanks for the clarification. Does it also win if both teams are scoreless in a frame?
Yes.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 21st, 2015 at 5:54:39 AM
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Do you know around when william hill releases the props for the super bowl?
November 21st, 2015 at 6:47:00 AM
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Quote: Pinit2winitDo you know around when william hill releases the props for the super bowl?
Super Bowl props tend to start combing out a few days after the Conference Championship games. The Westgate (formerly LVH/Hilton) (when I can start assuming people know that?) is always first and puts out very solid lines. Whoever works there does a very good job at setting them.
I think William Hill is one of the first place to go after the Westgate. The conference Championships are on Jan 17. I think William Hill will release them around Jan 22, in time for the weekend.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 21st, 2015 at 7:45:38 AM
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I like
9815 OVR
9833 YES
9842 NO
I assume you can't parlay correlated bets...or can you?
9815 OVR
9833 YES
9842 NO
I assume you can't parlay correlated bets...or can you?
November 21st, 2015 at 7:50:21 AM
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Quote: RSI like
9815 OVR
9833 YES
9842 NO
I assume you can't parlay correlated bets...or can you?
Can you save us the trouble of clicking on every images and just tell us what those bets are? Unfortunately, no, you can't parlay props.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 21st, 2015 at 8:38:55 AM
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Quote: WizardI love any quarter tied at +105.
I'm assuming the Wizard has already crunched some numbers on this one, but I went ahead and did it too for 2013, 2014, and through week 10 of this year. +105 looks good by this data.
I included playoffs, excluded pre-season, and obviously excluded OT periods.
| Year | # of Games | # of Tie Quarters | # of games w/ at least one tie quarter | % of games w/ at least one tie quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 267 | 176 | 138 | 51.7% |
| 2014 | 267 | 173 | 136 | 50.9% |
| 2015 | 146 | 101 | 78 | 53.4% |
November 21st, 2015 at 8:59:23 AM
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Quote: WizardCan you save us the trouble of clicking on every images and just tell us what those bets are? Unfortunately, no, you can't parlay props.
Ah, the images showed up much larger on my iPhone.
Shortest TD - OVER 1.5 yards -110 [now that I think about it...not so sure]
Game will be tied after 0-0 : Yes +150
First Kickoff touchback - NO +150
Mind you, I'm not a "sports bettor". Just some bets that caught my eye.
November 21st, 2015 at 10:05:16 AM
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No overtime is my favorite bet. 1-0 so far
Would also like to add the wizards sports bets are like free EV every year. I think I netted a 25+% return just on last years Superbowl. If you place one +EV bet only go for the wizards picks.
Would also like to add the wizards sports bets are like free EV every year. I think I netted a 25+% return just on last years Superbowl. If you place one +EV bet only go for the wizards picks.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
November 21st, 2015 at 1:27:39 PM
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Quote: RSFirst Kickoff touchback - NO +150
I don't have any statistics on that. Do you? What was behind the bet?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 21st, 2015 at 7:46:02 PM
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Not to derail, but...
Then again, there are still those members that talk about Harrah's when they mean Caesars....
I think amongst this group, people will know what you mean.Quote: Wizard... The Westgate (formerly LVH/Hilton) (when I can start assuming people know that?) ...
Then again, there are still those members that talk about Harrah's when they mean Caesars....
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
November 25th, 2015 at 5:40:53 PM
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Lots of my props are based on field goals. I've noticed I haven't been doing too well on one of my favorites -- first score to be a touchdown. So, I decided to take a look at the average number this season (through week 10). Boy -- there have been a lot of them. See for yourself:
So, the average game this season has had 3.45 field goals. Compare this to an average of 2.94 for the seven years from 2000 to 2006.
A drawback to my prop bet calculator (of which I am very proud) is that it treats every game the same. So, before you bet a lot on props like first score is a touchdown or under 3.5 field goals, make sure you make a mental adjustment for the plethora of field goals lately.
Happy Thanksgiving.
| Year | Average points | Average TD's | Average FG's | Average Safeties |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 41.09 | 4.62 | 2.92 | 0.062 |
| 2001 | 40.54 | 4.53 | 2.97 | 0.042 |
| 2002 | 43.72 | 5.01 | 2.89 | 0.045 |
| 2003 | 41.79 | 4.69 | 2.97 | 0.082 |
| 2004 | 43.15 | 4.98 | 2.74 | 0.060 |
| 2005 | 41.15 | 4.58 | 3.03 | 0.041 |
| 2006 | 41.51 | 4.62 | 3.04 | 0.052 |
| 2007 | 43.39 | 4.87 | 3.07 | 0.067 |
| 2008 | 43.98 | 4.87 | 3.28 | 0.086 |
| 2009 | 43.16 | 4.92 | 2.92 | 0.052 |
| 2010 | 44.21 | 5.02 | 3.05 | 0.053 |
| 2011 | 44.49 | 4.94 | 3.27 | 0.086 |
| 2012 | 45.78 | 5.11 | 3.31 | 0.052 |
| 2013 | 46.87 | 5.23 | 3.38 | 0.082 |
| 2014 | 45.27 | 5.07 | 3.22 | 0.086 |
| 2015 | 46.45 | 5.18 | 3.45 | 0.062 |
| 2000-2015 | 43.46 | 4.88 | 3.09 | 0.063 |
So, the average game this season has had 3.45 field goals. Compare this to an average of 2.94 for the seven years from 2000 to 2006.
A drawback to my prop bet calculator (of which I am very proud) is that it treats every game the same. So, before you bet a lot on props like first score is a touchdown or under 3.5 field goals, make sure you make a mental adjustment for the plethora of field goals lately.
Happy Thanksgiving.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 25th, 2015 at 6:07:56 PM
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The game has become more offense friendly, with more rules protecting QB's and receivers. Touchdowns, total scores, and field goals are all trending up. It is rare to see sub 40 pt. over/under lines nowadays.
Do your stats include the final week of the season? I wonder if you would get more accurate findings if you left out the stats from the final week, since many teams often rest their starters once playoff positions are locked in.
Do your stats include the final week of the season? I wonder if you would get more accurate findings if you left out the stats from the final week, since many teams often rest their starters once playoff positions are locked in.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 26th, 2015 at 6:30:07 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaDo your stats include the final week of the season? I wonder if you would get more accurate findings if you left out the stats from the final week, since many teams often rest their starters once playoff positions are locked in.
Yes, they include every game in the regular and post season. I assume that if a team is resting their good players it would be reflected in the spread. What I care about is the correlation on any given prop to the spread and total.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 13th, 2015 at 7:05:50 AM
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CT Technology released early props for the Super Bowl.
Click on image for larger version.
Click on image for larger version.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 14th, 2015 at 10:49:59 AM
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Not AFC -3? Odd switch from a few weeks ago when both the Pats and Panthers were undefeated and the NFC was -3.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
January 23rd, 2016 at 10:52:43 AM
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Stations has no overtime for each of the Conference Championship games:
Ariz/Car: -1200
NEP/Den: -1100
I bet both of them small. I put each fair at -1500.
Ariz/Car: -1200
NEP/Den: -1100
I bet both of them small. I put each fair at -1500.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 24th, 2016 at 3:33:27 PM
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Quote: WizardStations has no overtime for each of the Conference Championship games:
Ariz/Car: -1200
NEP/Den: -1100
I bet both of them small. I put each fair at -1500.
Bit nerveracking for -1100.
January 24th, 2016 at 7:05:15 PM
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Quote: tringlomaneBit nerveracking for -1100.
Yes, I was sweating that 2-point conversion big time. At lot of stress to win $50.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 25th, 2016 at 2:17:46 PM
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Have the major props for the SB been posted yet? If not, when do they usually go public?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
January 25th, 2016 at 2:25:14 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaHave the major props for the SB been posted yet? If not, when do they usually go public?
In Las Vegas they usually don't come out until about Thursday.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 29th, 2016 at 2:54:05 PM
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Westgate has No OT and No Safety at -800 this year (for now).
Given the higher spread my thought was that the no OT bet would be an even better value this year.
I took a look at OT rates for games since 1970 with a team favored by 5, 5.5, and 6 and found that only 16 out of 320 of these games went to OT. NO OT in this case would have a fair line of -2000.
I usually make the no safety bet, but I think I'll switch to No OT this year.
Given the higher spread my thought was that the no OT bet would be an even better value this year.
I took a look at OT rates for games since 1970 with a team favored by 5, 5.5, and 6 and found that only 16 out of 320 of these games went to OT. NO OT in this case would have a fair line of -2000.
I usually make the no safety bet, but I think I'll switch to No OT this year.
January 29th, 2016 at 3:50:25 PM
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Quote: ewoks4lifeI usually make the no safety bet, but I think I'll switch to No OT this year.
I would make both. I'm holding out for at least -700 on each, but if it doesn't look like it will get there as of game day, will happily lay 8 to 1.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 29th, 2016 at 3:53:34 PM
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Here are nine pages of Mirage props. Sorry they are out of order. I'm also not sure why some appear sideways. I've rotated them on my computer but for some reason the rotation is not respected after I FTP them.
Page 1
Page 2
Page 3
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Page 5
Page 6
Page 7
Page 8
Page 9
Page 1
Page 2
Page 3
Page 4
Page 5
Page 6
Page 7
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Page 9
Last edited by: Wizard on Jan 30, 2016
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 29th, 2016 at 3:54:59 PM
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Bovada sent something today advertising 500 SB props. I will be checking them out later.
January 29th, 2016 at 5:26:51 PM
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Cg no safety -1100
Yes +700
Yes +700
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
January 29th, 2016 at 8:34:51 PM
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Safety and OT are -750 at SP, or at least were.
FWIW, a pro (a real one, not a tout) was recommending this play generically, but pointed out that the Panthers already have one intentional safety this year.
"The kind of coach who'll take an intentional safety up 30 points with 0:28 left alters the fair price."
I took some player props. Been doing well with them this year, but only started in the playoffs.
CJ Anderson long recept: under 8.5 -110
Daniels u 2.5 rec. +125
Daniels u 33 rec yards -110
Miller u 3 tackles -110
Tolbert over 9.5 rush yd -110
Funchess u 26.5 rec yard -110
D Thomas u 65.5 rec y -110
D Thomas u 5.5 rec -110
E Dickerson u 7.5. rec yar -110
E Sanders Rec yards over 69.5 -110
Sanders long rec ov 26.5 -120
V Davis rec yar u 5.5 -140
FWIW, a pro (a real one, not a tout) was recommending this play generically, but pointed out that the Panthers already have one intentional safety this year.
"The kind of coach who'll take an intentional safety up 30 points with 0:28 left alters the fair price."
I took some player props. Been doing well with them this year, but only started in the playoffs.
CJ Anderson long recept: under 8.5 -110
Daniels u 2.5 rec. +125
Daniels u 33 rec yards -110
Miller u 3 tackles -110
Tolbert over 9.5 rush yd -110
Funchess u 26.5 rec yard -110
D Thomas u 65.5 rec y -110
D Thomas u 5.5 rec -110
E Dickerson u 7.5. rec yar -110
E Sanders Rec yards over 69.5 -110
Sanders long rec ov 26.5 -120
V Davis rec yar u 5.5 -140
January 29th, 2016 at 8:51:21 PM
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Quote: RigondeauxFWIW, a pro (a real one, not a tout) was recommending this play generically, but pointed out that the Panthers already have one intentional safety this year.
"The kind of coach who'll take an intentional safety up 3 points with 0:28 left alters the fair price."
Which game was that?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 29th, 2016 at 8:59:13 PM
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Skins. Here's the video. The punter looks like a relatively agile guy.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000585317/Panthers-Brad-Nortman-hangs-out-in-the-back-of-the-endzone-for-a-safety
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000585317/Panthers-Brad-Nortman-hangs-out-in-the-back-of-the-endzone-for-a-safety
January 30th, 2016 at 7:34:38 AM
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Quote: RigondeauxSkins. Here's the video. The punter looks like a relatively agile guy.
Ugh. You hate to see that as a "no safety" bettor, even if you didn't bet it that game. What would most teams have done in that situation?
I might add that between the regular and post seasons, Carolina scored zero safeties and Denver one. I'd be interested to know the number they gave up, but can't find that statistic.
Speaking of intentional safeties, here is the Ravens one in Super Bowl 47 (I refuse to use Roman numerals for numbering Super Bowls).
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 30th, 2016 at 2:22:12 PM
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Quote: RigondeauxSafety and OT are -750 at SP, or at least were.
Make that were. As of this morning they were both -900.
However, here are the Boyd gaming lines as of that time:
No O/T -800
No Safety -750
No 2-pt. conversion -350
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 30th, 2016 at 4:08:49 PM
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January 30th, 2016 at 4:34:54 PM
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Pages 1 and 2 are the same
I also noticed an error: the bet "Will there be a score in the first 6 1/2 minutes of the game?" (page 17) says, "Score exactly 6:30 left in the first quarter then Yes wins" - that should be "exactly 8:30 left in the first quarter," as 6:30 left not in the first 6 1/2 minutes of the game.
I also noticed an error: the bet "Will there be a score in the first 6 1/2 minutes of the game?" (page 17) says, "Score exactly 6:30 left in the first quarter then Yes wins" - that should be "exactly 8:30 left in the first quarter," as 6:30 left not in the first 6 1/2 minutes of the game.
January 30th, 2016 at 7:24:38 PM
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When using the wizards prop calculator should I subtract 3 points (off the spread) from the favorite because of the neutral site??
Last edited by: z2newton on Jan 30, 2016
January 30th, 2016 at 9:26:46 PM
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Quote: z2newtonWhen using the wizards prop calculator should I subtract 3 points (off the spread) from the favorite because of the neutral site??
No. The neutral site is already factored into the line.
In other news, went to a Cantor book this evening. Saw nothing good.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 31st, 2016 at 7:32:32 AM
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The one prop bet I see every year where the line just seems "off" to me is the shortest TD of the game over/under 1.5 yards. Seems to me that more games by far do NOT have a TD made from the 1 yard line, so I am tempted to bet over but have no data to support my hunch.
Anyone got data on this?
Anyone got data on this?
