Will a team go 16-0

What do you think and who?

Yes. Team x . (x = insert name of team that does .)

Quote: Pinit2winit

What do you think and who?

The Pat are really dinged up, and have the tougher row to hoe:
11/29 Broncos
12/6 Eagles
12/13 Texans
12/20 Titans
12/27 Jets
1/3 Dolphins

If Carolina can get past the Neo-Romo Cowboys on a short week, they could run the table, especially since they play the slumping Falcons twice:
11/26 Cowboys
12/6 Saints
12/13 Falcons
12/20 Giants
12/27 Falcons
1/ 3 Buccaneers

It would be special to see two undefeated teams in the Super Bowl. However, I don't think the Panthers beat the Cowboys, nor do I think the Pats get past Denver's defense.

I don't see a team going 16-0. I see the Falcons beating the Panthers, and I see the Pats dropping games to Denver and the Jets. Furthermore, you can kind of see a loss for the Pats coming down the pike anyways, they have really struggled these past two games and I see that happening in the future

Quote: Gabes22

I don't see a team going 16-0. I see the Falcons beating the Panthers...

Agreed on the Pats. The injuries are catching up to them. Regarding CAR/ATL, I see it totally opposite. Barring injury, the Panthers run over the Falcons pretty easily... Twice.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Agreed on the Pats. The injuries are catching up to them. Regarding CAR/ATL, I see it totally opposite. Barring injury, the Panthers run over the Falcons pretty easily... Twice.

I agree with the Panthers predictions. Falcons are medium strength at best this season, despite the strong start. Upsets are always possible in the NFL, but I think the Panthers should be able to handle them

Quote: Ayecarumba

The Pat are really dinged up, and have the tougher row to hoe:
11/29 Broncos
12/6 Eagles
12/13 Texans
12/20 Titans
12/27 Jets
1/3 Dolphins

If Carolina can get past the Neo-Romo Cowboys on a short week, they could run the table, especially since they play the slumping Falcons twice:
11/26 Cowboys
12/6 Saints
12/13 Falcons
12/20 Giants
12/27 Falcons
1/ 3 Buccaneers

It would be special to see two undefeated teams in the Super Bowl. However, I don't think the Panthers beat the Cowboys, nor do I think the Pats get past Denver's defense.

I would take the Panther side of that....

I'll say no. You guys are forgetting the coaches who will play the waterboys when they are 15-0 and have clinched home field advantage. Even Belicheck last year benched evryone in the last game versus the Bills when it meant nada for either team.

I don't see either team running the table, in fact I predict that Panthers lose at least twice between now and the end of the season.

Quote: SOOPOO

I'll say no. You guys are forgetting the coaches who will play the waterboys when they are 15-0 and have clinched home field advantage. Even Belicheck last year benched evryone in the last game versus the Bills when it meant nada for either team.

I agree with this. There's a reason pretty much every fantasy football league has its championship game on Week 16 and not Week 17.

Panthers defensive back ups should be able to stop the Bucs in week 17. Can Derek Anderson and Philly Brown score?

The Cowboys shouldn't be favored this week vs Carolina. It moved to a pick but I jumped on Carolina +1.5. Carolina is more likely to lose at NYG than the other games. If they lose, barring sitting defensive starters in WK 16 against Falcons, that is the toughest game.

Pats are going to get bit by the injury bug and will clinch that division and maybe number one spot by week 15. They will sit a lot of people.

Greetings!

I have written an Article with a little bit of rudimentary analysis in an effort to answer the question posed by this thread. Please note that the Article was written before the Patriots game had been played (that is hours from now) and also before the Panthers game had been played, but it was Edited AFTER the Panthers game had been played, but I didn't know Westgate's updated Lines.

Therefore, the Article remains in the context that the Panthers/Cowboys game had not yet been played, but I do plan to update it eventually in the event that someone is kind enough to get me Westgate's updated Odds on the Future Bet.

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/perfect-regular-season/

Let me address this question after today's games.

Quote: Pinit2winit

What do you think and who?

I say definitely yes that a team will go 16-0 this season. I will bet $100 with the first one that accepts this bet.

I don't think any team has done it since the Patriots.

BTW, I am assuming the NBA counts too. :)

Quote: Pinit2winit

What do you think and who?

I be the Pats will.
they've had years to perfect their cheating and make it go unnoticed.
:)


edit:
wait.. 16-0 just means the regular season?
in that case... pfffftt.

thought you were talking about undefeated including winning the Superbowl.
and I believe the pats will w/their perfected cheating methods. :P

Then coach Cheater can retire and have his name forever in Legacy (with an asterisk next to it, like Barry Bond's home runs.)
:)

Quote: DRich

I say definitely yes that a team will go 16-0 this season. I will bet $100 with the first one that accepts this bet.

I don't think any team has done it since the Patriots.

BTW, I am assuming the NBA counts too. :)

Rich, if that bet still stands, I'll take it. To be clear, I'm betting that both the Patriots and Panthers will lose at least one regular season game.

Quote: MidwestAP

Rich, if that bet still stands, I'll take it. To be clear, I'm betting that both the Patriots and Panthers will lose at least one regular season game.

Sorry, I only want the bet if I can include the Golden State Warriors. With the thread title only saying will a team go 16-0 I was just pointing out that it didn't mention only NFL.

I would estimate the fair odds of the Patriots going 16-0 is about 6 to 1 and also about 6 to 1 for the Panthers to go 16-0.

A fair price would then be around 3 to 1 for either team to go undefeated.

If anyone would like to bet I will offer 2 to 1 odds that neither team goes 16-0. On the other side, I will take 4 to 1 odds that one of those two teams will go 16-0. Obviously the bet would have to be placed before the Patriot kickoff tonight.

What does it matter to other than junkies if a team goes 16-0 and finishes 16-1 ???

Quote: DRich

I would estimate the fair odds of the Patriots going 16-0 is about 6 to 1 and also about 6 to 1 for the Panthers to go 16-0.

A fair price would then be around 3 to 1 for either team to go undefeated.

If anyone would like to bet I will offer 2 to 1 odds that neither team goes 16-0. On the other side, I will take 4 to 1 odds that one of those two teams will go 16-0. Obviously the bet would have to be placed before the Patriot kickoff tonight.

The Panthers are undoubtedly less likely to do it than the Patriots.

Are you saying I can bet $100 to win $200 that neither team does it? Not taking that yet, just asking for now.

Quote: Mission146

The Panthers are undoubtedly less likely to do it than the Patriots.

Are you saying I can bet $100 to win $200 that neither team does it? Not taking that yet, just asking for now.

No, I am offering 2 to 1 if you think either one of those teams will go 16-0 (I would be betting that neither team does). Sorry if I phrased it in a confusing manner.

Quote: Mission146

The Panthers are undoubtedly less likely to do it than the Patriots.

I don't know if that is true. The Pats have to win the next 6 games and the Panthers only 5. The Pats also have a tough game today against the Broncos.

If you every think a team will go undefeated, 95% of the time you will do better just betting them against the money line every game. Some of those times you might even win more than twice as much than if you made the prop bet. The other 5% of the time there will be very little difference.

Quote: DRich

I don't know if that is true. The Pats have to win the next 6 games and the Panthers only 5. The Pats also have a tough game today against the Broncos.

Based on the average favorite point spread and corresponding probability of winning, the Patriots are still a bit more likely.

Quote: Mission146

Based on the average favorite point spread and corresponding probability of winning, the Patriots are still a bit more likely.

Did you actually look up the future point spreads? How close was it? I just estimated based on what I thought the spreads would be and came up with the Patriots winning out 16.1% and the Panthers 16.5%.

Pats are out

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Pats are out

Can I still bet them or do I have to burn my money to stay warm in this weather?

A few of you have asked me to put in my two cents on this thread. At least I can concentrate on just one team going 16-0, after the Patriots lost to Denver two days ago.

My model is pretty simple. To estimate the points scored by any given team per game average their net offensive points and opponents net defensive points. Then take the difference for both teams playing and you will have a neutral point spread. Finally, add 3 for home field advantage and subtract it if playing a road game.

Let's look at the week 13 game against the Saints as an example. The Panthers are the visiting team.

The Panthers have scored 32.3 offensive points per game on average this season. The Saints have given up 30.8 per game, on average. Take the average of these and the Panthers should score 31.55 points, before making the visiting team adjustment.

The Saints have scored 23.7 offensive points per game on average this season. The Panthers have given up 18.6 per game, on average. Take the average of these and the Saints should score 21.15 points, before making the home team adjustment.

On a neutral field, the Panthers should win by their expected points scored less that of the Saints, which comes to 31.55-21.15 = 10.4.

So, if they were playing on a neutral field, the Panthers should win by 10.4 points. However, they are playing on the road, so subtract 3 from that for a winning margin of 7.4 points. Then you can use my Prop Bet Calculator to determine the probability of winning. I find for who will win straight up the only thing that really matters is the spread. For the total just put in an NFL average this season of 46. You'll see that for a point spread of 7.4 the fair line of the home team winning is +271. That means the fair line on the Panthers is -271. That equates to a probability of winning of 271/371 = 73.05%.

Then just do that for the other four games and take the product. Or you can just use the table below.

Week	Opponent	Location	Panthers net point per game	Opponent net point per game	Level Panters winning margin	Adjusted winning margin	Fair odds	Prob win
13	Saints	Away	13.7	-7.1	10.4	7.4	-271	0.730458
14	Falcons	Home	13.7	2.3	5.7	8.7	-323	0.763593
15	Giants	Away	13.7	1.3	6.2	3.2	-154	0.606299
16	Falcons	Away	13.7	2.3	5.7	2.7	-144	0.590164
17	Buccaneers	Home	13.7	-2.9	8.3	11.3	-458	0.820789

If you take the product of the probability of winning all five games you get 16.38%. That equates to a fair line of +510.

I noticed one Internet casino had lines on the Panthers having a 16-0 season of:

Yes +425
No -550

With my line at +510, neither side is good, as usual.

This model of course does not take into account recent injuries or that the Panthers might rest their good players in games 16 or 17 if they have locked a bye and home field advantage. I'll leave it to you to make adjustments for that.

Any questions?

Thanks Wizard! How does this methodology work at the beginning of the season? Do you use the pre-season scores?

Also, if you apply it to last year's scores, how did the predictions perform vs. the actual spreads?

Quote: Wizard

This model of course does not take into account recent injuries or that the Panthers might rest their good players in games 16 or 17 if they have locked a bye and home field advantage. I'll leave it to you to make adjustments for that.

This is an interesting part of the equation. Do you rest your starters in the final week? they already have a bye week in the first round, so if you rest them in the final week, it is like 3 weeks that they haven't played. You risk getting out of rhythm and rust factors. On the other hand you play starters and have Cam Newton get hurt in the final week of a meaningless game, and you probably are run out of town.

The playing for an undefeated season adds intrigue. Just how much does a 'place in history' mean to the coach/players ?

In 2007, New England played it's starters for the whole game against the Giants. Turns out they needed to as the game was 38-35. They obviously placed a premium on that 'place in history'.

On the flip side, you gotta figure out the opponents situation. In 2007, the Giants had secured a playoff spot, but did not have a bye, so they were going to be playing a playoff game the following week. They had every reason to rest their starters, but they chose not to (surprisingly in my opinion) and went after the patriots with everything they had in a meaningless game for them.

Quote: Wizard

A few of you have asked me to put in my two cents on this thread. At least I can concentrate on just one team going 16-0, after the Patriots lost to Denver two days ago.

My model is pretty simple. To estimate the points scored by any given team per game average their net offensive points and opponents net defensive points. Then take the difference for both teams playing and you will have a neutral point spread. Finally, add 3 for home field advantage and subtract it if playing a road game.

Let's look at the week 13 game against the Saints as an example. The Panthers are the visiting team.

The Panthers have scored 32.3 offensive points per game on average this season. The Saints have given up 30.8 per game, on average. Take the average of these and the Panthers should score 31.55 points, before making the visiting team adjustment.

The Saints have scored 23.7 offensive points per game on average this season. The Panthers have given up 18.6 per game, on average. Take the average of these and the Saints should score 21.15 points, before making the home team adjustment.

On a neutral field, the Panthers should win by their expected points scored less that of the Saints, which comes to 31.55-21.15 = 10.4.

So, if they were playing on a neutral field, the Panthers should win by 10.4 points. However, they are playing on the road, so subtract 3 from that for a winning margin of 7.4 points. Then you can use my Prop Bet Calculator to determine the probability of winning. I find for who will win straight up the only thing that really matters is the spread. For the total just put in an NFL average this season of 46. You'll see that for a point spread of 7.4 the fair line of the home team winning is +271. That means the fair line on the Panthers is -271. That equates to a probability of winning of 271/371 = 73.05%.

Then just do that for the other four games and take the product. Or you can just use the table below.

Week	Opponent	Location	Panthers net point per game	Opponent net point per game	Level Panters winning margin	Adjusted winning margin	Fair odds	Prob win
13	Saints	Away	13.7	-7.1	10.4	7.4	-271	0.730458
14	Falcons	Home	13.7	2.3	5.7	8.7	-323	0.763593
15	Giants	Away	13.7	1.3	6.2	3.2	-154	0.606299
16	Falcons	Away	13.7	2.3	5.7	2.7	-144	0.590164
17	Buccaneers	Home	13.7	-2.9	8.3	11.3	-458	0.820789

If you take the product of the probability of winning all five games you get 16.38%. That equates to a fair line of +510.

I noticed one Internet casino had lines on the Panthers having a 16-0 season of:

Yes +425
No -550

With my line at +510, neither side is good, as usual.

This model of course does not take into account recent injuries or that the Panthers might rest their good players in games 16 or 17 if they have locked a bye and home field advantage. I'll leave it to you to make adjustments for that.

Any questions?

Wholly Moley!
That's all very cool if you are into NFL gaming/gambling.
And I realize there is an audience for this sort of chatter.
When you going climbing/mountaineering next and where?
Can I come along as the 'trip photographer' ?

Quote: Wizard

If you take the product of the probability of winning all five games you get 16.38%. That equates to a fair line of +510.

I noticed one Internet casino had lines on the Panthers having a 16-0 season of:

Yes +425
No -550

With my line at +510, neither side is good, as usual.

This model of course does not take into account recent injuries or that the Panthers might rest their good players in games 16 or 17 if they have locked a bye and home field advantage. I'll leave it to you to make adjustments for that.

Any questions?

Thank you for your analysis.

My non-scientific method came up with 16.5% but I was trying to factor in how lines would move based upon the record each week. My assumption is that the Panthers will play most starters if they are 15-0 because going 16-0 would be important to them. I am very surprised that my number was that close.

Quote: Wizard

A few of you have asked me to put in my two cents on this thread. At least I can concentrate on just one team going 16-0, after the Patriots lost to Denver two days ago.

My model is pretty simple. To estimate the points scored by any given team per game average their net offensive points and opponents net defensive points. Then take the difference for both teams playing and you will have a neutral point spread. Finally, add 3 for home field advantage and subtract it if playing a road game.

Let's look at the week 13 game against the Saints as an example. The Panthers are the visiting team.

The Panthers have scored 32.3 offensive points per game on average this season. The Saints have given up 30.8 per game, on average. Take the average of these and the Panthers should score 31.55 points, before making the visiting team adjustment.

The Saints have scored 23.7 offensive points per game on average this season. The Panthers have given up 18.6 per game, on average. Take the average of these and the Saints should score 21.15 points, before making the home team adjustment.

On a neutral field, the Panthers should win by their expected points scored less that of the Saints, which comes to 31.55-21.15 = 10.4.

So, if they were playing on a neutral field, the Panthers should win by 10.4 points. However, they are playing on the road, so subtract 3 from that for a winning margin of 7.4 points. Then you can use my Prop Bet Calculator to determine the probability of winning. I find for who will win straight up the only thing that really matters is the spread. For the total just put in an NFL average this season of 46. You'll see that for a point spread of 7.4 the fair line of the home team winning is +271. That means the fair line on the Panthers is -271. That equates to a probability of winning of 271/371 = 73.05%.

Then just do that for the other four games and take the product. Or you can just use the table below.

Week	Opponent	Location	Panthers net point per game	Opponent net point per game	Level Panters winning margin	Adjusted winning margin	Fair odds	Prob win
13	Saints	Away	13.7	-7.1	10.4	7.4	-271	0.730458
14	Falcons	Home	13.7	2.3	5.7	8.7	-323	0.763593
15	Giants	Away	13.7	1.3	6.2	3.2	-154	0.606299
16	Falcons	Away	13.7	2.3	5.7	2.7	-144	0.590164
17	Buccaneers	Home	13.7	-2.9	8.3	11.3	-458	0.820789

If you take the product of the probability of winning all five games you get 16.38%. That equates to a fair line of +510.

I noticed one Internet casino had lines on the Panthers having a 16-0 season of:

Yes +425
No -550

With my line at +510, neither side is good, as usual.

This model of course does not take into account recent injuries or that the Panthers might rest their good players in games 16 or 17 if they have locked a bye and home field advantage. I'll leave it to you to make adjustments for that.

Any questions?

This is fantastic! Thanks for sharing it; it illuminates several things you've said previously.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Thanks Wizard! How does this methodology work at the beginning of the season? Do you use the pre-season scores?

Also, if you apply it to last year's scores, how did the predictions perform vs. the actual spreads?

You're welcome. If I did this at the beginning of the season I would use data from the previous season. No, I never consider pre-season scores for anything. Those games are meaningless. I didn't make any such bets like this last season that I can recall. However, I'm a believer that my method of looking at the difference in net points is pretty accurate. Barring major injuries or healings, it gets to within the actual spread by a point most of the time.

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

When you going climbing/mountaineering next and where?
Can I come along as the 'trip photographer' ?

I'm hoping to climb the highest and third highest mountains of Mexico in February or March. You are more than welcome to be the trip photographer!

Quote: kewlj

They had every reason to rest their starters, but they chose not to (surprisingly in my opinion) and went after the patriots with everything they had in a meaningless game for them.

As an athlete, I absolutely refuse to sit. I can't stand it. I was sat when I was young as a "preservation move" and it f#$%ed me right up. Even taking it easy won't do. It throws the whole operation out of works.

I also hate bye weeks and all star breaks. I'm not even gonna get started on all of that =p

Quote: Pinit2winit

What do you think and who?

It's not the NFL, but hats off to Golden State: 19-0.

An amazing fete, but not yet unprecedented.

Baseball's St. Louis Maroons began the 1884 season with 20 consecutive victories -- the only franchise in the four major sports to have ever done so.

^^ pro ride the only good thing the bay area has!!!

Quote: Wizard

To estimate the points scored by any given team per game average their net offensive points and opponents net defensive points. Then take the difference for both teams playing and you will have a neutral point spread. Finally, add 3 for home field advantage and subtract it if playing a road game.

Any questions?

When you say offensive points your excluding scores from punt returns, interceptions, safety's etc? In your ask the wizard column you say to +- 1.5 points fror home and away games.