Casino profit on EV ?
I think I have a good understanding of the money line and all but I have a question. When it says EV , does that mean I win even money? ( 100$ for 100$) and if so how do the casinos make money without the usual 10% vig?
Thx
Quote: Wonko33I am fairly new to sports betting, I can't really bet where I am but I watch the Vegas insider to get a feel for it for when I go Vegas next.
I think I have a good understanding of the money line and all but I have a question. When it says EV , does that mean I win even money? ( 100$ for 100$) and if so how do the casinos make money without the usual 10% vig?
Thx
My understanding is that their best line is off by enough that they think they will get theirs in the middle (less than 50% chance the EV line will be the winner), but not by enough to move the line. However, it could also be that they expect such heavy action on the other side of the bet that they're trying to encourage more betting on the dog by making it EV (kind of a hedge). That's all second-hand info from someone who tried to explain it to me a few years ago, so I could easily be wrong. I hope someone can provide a better/more expert answer.
Quote: Wonko33I am fairly new to sports betting, I can't really bet where I am but I watch the Vegas insider to get a feel for it for when I go Vegas next.
I think I have a good understanding of the money line and all but I have a question. When it says EV , does that mean I win even money? ( 100$ for 100$) and if so how do the casinos make money without the usual 10% vig?
Thx
If one side is 'even money', you are probably laying 110 to win 100 on the other side.
Consider a two-horse race (or a fair coin toss) where both horses have an equal chance of winning.
In the UK they use a term "book value", it works by asking how much money you'd have to put on each horse to ensure you get back $100 regardless of which one wins. For instance a generous bookmaker might offer odds of 20/21 (-105 in US terms) on each horse. Thus you'd have to bet $52.38 to get back $100. Your total outlay would be $104.78, and this would be the "book value". It also means on average the bookie makes $4.78 on every $104.78 wagered or 4.56%. Or you can think of it as your $100 bet is worth $96.44.
Now suppose there is more money on one horse than the other, the bookie might take the risk or go 10/11 (-110) and Evens (+100) on the other. As an outsider, having been told the chances are the same, we know the latter bet is a fair bet; but in a real race the bookie thinks the one with more money bet on it is probably more likely and is therefore willing to offer Evens on the other. If money still comes in on the "favourite" the odds on the other might even drift to +105.
This is actually a dilemma for bookmakers, whether to stand up to big bets or be more flexible but possibly offering too generous odds on the other. In practice in the UK they would have offered 10/11 or 5/6. In a few races you could have beaten book by getting the best prices, but it's not very common.
-7 EV
Usually it is something like
"Spread value" -10, meaning that you would win 100$ if you bet 110$ on either team right?
They are NOT in the business to make a line or wager at which they think both sides are equally likely to occur....they are in the business to set a line where they think PEOPLE will bet both sides.
For example, let's say the Patriots are playing the Chargers. If you do all the math and figure out the "true odds", they may figure out the Patriots are most likely to win by let's say 14 points. With such a big spread, people are going to be more likely to bet the Chargers +14. They don't want that (more money on one side). Instead, they'd rather put the Patriots at -10, because they THINK half the people will bet Chargers +10 and half will bet Patriots -10. But the true odds for the game might be Patriots -14.
Or maybe there's a big boxing match, maybe Mayweather vs Berto. If they figure the true odds is Mayweather -1400 and Berto at +1400 (true odds).....probably lotta money gonna be coming in on Mayweather with those odds. But if they shift the odds to Mayweather -2200 and Berto +2100....although that is not the true odds for the match, the casino will find bettors are betting more evenly on both sides. And that's all they want -- people to bet on BOTH sides. They don't care at all what the "true odds" or "most likely event" to occur or the "EV"....they just want equal action on both sides. Of course, if you're good, you can figure out where these inconsistencies are and make a smart bet. Especially if there's a lot of hype for the favorite to win.
If the line changes, that doesn't mean the true odds of the game have changed. All it means is the book is trying to even out the wagers on both sides of the outcome. It does NOT mean you are now gaining an advantage if you bet on "the other side", nor does it mean that a previously booked wager (Dolphins -7, ex.) that has a changed spread (now is Dolphins -9, perhaps) now has an advantage.
For example, for MLB, the Angels are at -230 tonight while Oakland is at +205. These represents the true odds of the game plus the vig. The casino doesn't really know how people will bet. You could easily have a Rickey Henderson walk in at 6:55pm and bet $50K on Oakland while the rest of the action on the Angels is 10K for that game. You wouldn't adjust the odds to have Oakland now be -800 / Angels +700 to ensure that the casino makes money. You always set the odds at the true odds for the game plus the vig.
The same is true for over/under and line bets and even proposition bets.
Parimutuels are different because the odds move with the betting in order to always guarantee the same vig for the racing facility. A bookie with less action might move a line for the will of the people in order to still have money left at the end of the day, and I have seen a government (Ontario) take away a bet (no action) when a major event has occurred (injured quarterback).
Casinos, though will move odds not based on the amounts bet but based on true odds.
Quote: RSBecause they want the same amount of money on both sides of the bet. That way with either outcome, the casino will make money. Simply put, they initially offer a bet where they think both sides will get equal action....if/when one of the sides gets more action than the other, they shift the "odds" so that people will put bets on the other side to even it out.
They are NOT in the business to make a line or wager at which they think both sides are equally likely to occur....they are in the business to set a line where they think PEOPLE will bet both sides.
For example, let's say the Patriots are playing the Chargers. If you do all the math and figure out the "true odds", they may figure out the Patriots are most likely to win by let's say 14 points. With such a big spread, people are going to be more likely to bet the Chargers +14. They don't want that (more money on one side). Instead, they'd rather put the Patriots at -10, because they THINK half the people will bet Chargers +10 and half will bet Patriots -10. But the true odds for the game might be Patriots -14.
Or maybe there's a big boxing match, maybe Mayweather vs Berto. If they figure the true odds is Mayweather -1400 and Berto at +1400 (true odds).....probably lotta money gonna be coming in on Mayweather with those odds. But if they shift the odds to Mayweather -2200 and Berto +2100....although that is not the true odds for the match, the casino will find bettors are betting more evenly on both sides. And that's all they want -- people to bet on BOTH sides. They don't care at all what the "true odds" or "most likely event" to occur or the "EV"....they just want equal action on both sides. Of course, if you're good, you can figure out where these inconsistencies are and make a smart bet. Especially if there's a lot of hype for the favorite to win.The money line, spreads, etc. I posted are just examples. I don't bet sports, but I have an understanding in how their system works.
If the line changes, that doesn't mean the true odds of the game have changed. All it means is the book is trying to even out the wagers on both sides of the outcome. It does NOT mean you are now gaining an advantage if you bet on "the other side", nor does it mean that a previously booked wager (Dolphins -7, ex.) that has a changed spread (now is Dolphins -9, perhaps) now has an advantage.
I know that, my question is, in football when you see this:
Chargers -7 EV
Does it mean that they pay 100$ for 100$? And if so, how do they make money without charging the vig?
Quote: Wonko33I know that, my question is, in football when you see this:
Chargers -7 EV
Does it mean that they pay 100$ for 100$? And if so, how do they make money without charging the vig?
What does it say for the Chargers' opponent? Does it say, for example, "Chiefs +7 -120"?
I'm pretty sure "even" always means even money if it specifically says even (or "EV").
The opponent will almost certainly be at less than even money - either that, or the point spread will be something like +6, so if the Chargers win by 7, the Chargers bets are a push while the casino wins on the opponents' bets, and if the Chargers win by 6, the opponents' bets are a push while the casino wins on the Chargers bets.
I understand the question. In the UK "Ev" or "E" means Even money, so I imagine in your case it's the same.Quote: Wonko33...my question is, in football when you see this: Chargers -7 EV ...
Does it mean that they pay 100$ for 100$? And if so, how do they make money without charging the vig?
The way the bookie makes money is to offer less than Evens on the other side. Suppose the odds are -120 (or 5/6 if you prefer) for Others +7.
The bookie makes money when say $550 is bet on Chargers and $600 is bet on Others. Whatever the outcome the bookie pays out $1100 ($550@1/1 or $600@5/6) but has taken in $1150 ($550+$600). Now that's the perfect book, guaranteed profit, but the same principle applies - in the long run the bookie pays out less than taking in.
Quote: Wonko33Found it! I guess on the main page they don't put all the info, if you click on event you can see that betting one way gives you even odd but the other way is -120. Casinos make money, the world is restored to order....
Sorry to read all the confusing replies.
It's really very simple....
If they don't want to move the line in football, they instead move the amount you have to lay on which ever side they find themselves out of balance on. The other side will be -120 meaning of course, lay 120 to win 100 instead of 110 to win 100.
The main thing to remember or ignore, your choice, is the books or bookie win in the long run based on the amount of money bet. The myth "you only pay when you lose" is for losers to not only lose, but be stupid. With a basic ten percent line(110 to win 100) the book/bookie will win five percent of the total money wagered in the long term. Or, if you must, figure they are making five percent a weekend on said total money wagered, or even more if you think about baseball you can get the five percent number even higher as not a "ten cent line", per day. Five percent return per day gets people like the mafia and other criminal enterprises interested. With them credit comes into play. It gets wicked! but easy to grasp after some sober thinking.
Quote: MoosetonCurrently the spread for Jacksonvill at Indy is -9.5 Indy at most places. Cantor Gaming has the spread a little different at -10 Indy EV which means you would bet 100 on Indy to win 100. Or you could bet $120 on Jacksonville +10 to win $100. That's my guess to what OP wanted. 👍
This is your answer, casinos write EV instead of +100 or -100, it is simply a convention.
Quote: ahiromuThis is your answer, casinos write EV instead of +100 or -100, it is simply a convention.
The thing that was confusing me is I thought when it said EV both side of the bet were EV, when I clicked on the details I saw one side was EV but the other was -120, makes sense now.
