Super Bowl 49 -- All topics except the No Safety bet.
Yes. The coin article also mentions, but doesn't attribute a source, that the toss has landed, heads 24 times and tails 24 times. I am not sure about this because I recall that at least one year, the team logos were on opposite sides of the coin, and the side that came sunny side up was the winner, no one called it. I also seem to recall that the celebrity flipper did a pretty poor job. Was this a college bowl game? Maybe I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines...Quote: MidwestAPQuote: Ayecarumba
Edit #2: Here is a breakdown of the coin toss winners and the scores of the last 48 Superbowls.
There's a bet on Bovada that the team winning the coin toss, will win the game. If I counted correctly, that bet is 24-24 in Super Bowl history.
Quote: AyecarumbaThe coin article also mentions, but doesn't attribute a source, that the toss has landed, heads 24 times and tails 24 times. I am not sure about this because I recall that at least one year, the team logos were on opposite sides of the coin, and the side that came sunny side up was the winner, no one called it. I also seem to recall that the celebrity flipper did a pretty poor job. Was this a college bowl game? Maybe I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines...
At Super Bowl XVII, referee Jerry Markbreit said that the coin landed "heads", only for the coin tosser to remind him that the "tails" side had landed face-up.
Shortest touchdown (Yardage) scored by either team:
1 1/2 yards
Over even
Under -130
(Fumble recovered in end zone, under is winner)
-Hypothetically, how would I lose the over?
My answers: Fumble recovered in end zone for a touchdown, turnover returned for 1 yard touchdown, or a 1 yard rushing/passing touchdown.
I feel I may be missing something on this one....
*Edited to add: turnover returned for 1 yard touchdown*
Quote: KeeneoneHere is a prop I saw for the game:
Shortest touchdown (Yardage) scored by either team:
1 1/2 yards
Over even
Under -130
(Fumble recovered in end zone, under is winner)
-Hypothetically, how would I lose the over?
My answers: Fumble recovered in end zone for a touchdown or a 1 yard rushing/passing touchdown.
I feel I may be missing something on this one....
yes, those are the only ways for under to win
These questions really evolved from wondering how touchdown from just outside the 1 or just inside the 2 was recorded.
How it is recorded could also be independant of how the bet is resolved.
Quote: Dalex64How is a touchdown from 1.5 yards out put into the books? 1 yard, 2 yards, or 1.5 yards? If it is 1.5 yards, how is the over/under resolved?
These questions really evolved from wondering how touchdown from just outside the 1 or just inside the 2 was recorded.
How it is recorded could also be independant of how the bet is resolved.
I believe all plays in the NFL are recorded in whole numbers.
Quote: Dalex64How is a touchdown from 1.5 yards out put into the books? 1 yard, 2 yards, or 1.5 yards?
According to the NFL Guide for Statisticians (2006 edition - it's the only one I could find), the ball is always considered on a particular yard line. If any part of the ball touches the line, it is on that line; if it is entirely between two lines, it is considered on the line closer to the goal line the offense is trying to reach, with some exceptions:
(a) A ball between the 1-yard line and the goal line is on the 1;
(b) A ball between the 10 and 11 yard lines is on the 11 if it is first down, since the offense can gain 10 yards for a first down and still not reach the goal line;
(c) If there is less than one yard to go for a first down, the ball is considered one yard behind the line where the first down line is.
I think the only time fractions are included in statistics is when calculating sacks - if two players combine for a sack, then each is credited with 1/2 a sack.
Quote: KeeneoneHere is a prop I saw for the game:
Shortest touchdown (Yardage) scored by either team:
1 1/2 yards
Over even
Under -130
(Fumble recovered in end zone, under is winner)
-Hypothetically, how would I lose the over?
My answers: Fumble recovered in end zone for a touchdown, turnover returned for 1 yard touchdown, or a 1 yard rushing/passing touchdown.
I feel I may be missing something on this one....
*Edited to add: turnover returned for 1 yard touchdown*
South Point has the same prop but it is Over 1.5, -110; Under 1.5, -110.Quote: KeeneoneThank you for the responses. I have edited the post to add: turnover returned for 1 yard touchdown
South Point has 12 pages.Quote: djatcJust got CET and Cantor props. Seems pretty light in their offerings. Anyone know about quad/imperial palace/linq/Zelda props, or west gate/lvh? I'm gonna do a run tomorrow.
Quote: WizardHere are some new props I've noticed:
Four Consecutive Scores -- YES
Fair price = +255
Westgate (no/yes) = -330/+270
Lowest scoring quarter by both teams under 3.5
Fair price = -124
Westgate (under/over) = -110/-110
Wynn (under/over) = -110/-110
Highest scoring quarter by both teams under 20
Fair price = -146
Westgate (under/over) = -130/+110'
Combined field goals and touchdowns under 8.5
Fair price = -114
MGM (under/over) = -150/+120
As a reminder, you can see my fair lines for lots of props here.
South Point:
I didn't see a four consecutive scores prop on today's South Point sheet. However, they do have, "Will either team score 3 unanswered times (excludes Extra Points and Two Point Conversions)" (Yes/No) = -180/+160
They also have some props I thought were interesting: "Which half will have more points scored" (First/Second&OT) = EV/-120 Laying the 120 on the second half srikes me as a solid play, but I am curious what the actual performance of each team has been.
"What will be more? Longest field goal or total points in the game" (fg/total points)=+140/-160
Four Consecutive Scores -- YES
Fair price = +293
Lowest scoring quarter by both teams under 3.5
Fair price =+111
Highest scoring quarter by both teams under 20
Fair price = -118
Combined field goals and touchdowns under 8.5
Fair price = +108
I apologize for any inconvenience.
Quote: vendman1Mike, Just out of curiosity, and feel free to not say if you'd rather not divulge some secret squirrel stuff. But when you quote a "fair price", what data set are you using to get to that number? Postseason? Regular season? some combination of past post seasons? Just curious if you could enlighten us. If you can't that's ok too. Thanks as always for the good information.
I use every regular season NFL game played since the 2000 season. So, both regular and post season, but not pre season.
Quote: SOOPOOI believe all plays in the NFL are recorded in whole numbers.
Can confirm the above. The annoying thing is if they're on like the 1 yard 2 foot line. Sometimes it will be two yards, sometimes it will be one yard. I don't have the time to get into great detail, but basically it depends on the head scorekeeper and penalties. My guess is it goes off of the official stats as described above, not some arbitrary third party.
Quote: WizardI use every regular season NFL game played since the 2000 season. So, both regular and post season, but not pre season.
But for some props you are adjusting for the line and/or total, right?
Quote: FroggerBut for some props you are adjusting for the line and/or total, right?
I do that for all of them.
How many letters in the last name of the first TD scorer?
6 or less +125
7 or more -145
First look at the top scoring players for the Seahawks. This table shows the probability each player will score the first touchdown, based on the number of touchdowns in the regular season, the number of letters in the last name, and whether the under or over wins.
| Player | TD | Probability | Letters | winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 13 | 16.25% | 5 | under |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 7.50% | 6 | under |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 5.00% | 5 | under |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 3.75% | 7 | over |
| Luke Willson | 3 | 3.75% | 7 | over |
| Ricardo Lockette | 2 | 2.50% | 8 | over |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2.50% | 6 | under |
| Cooper Helfet | 2 | 2.50% | 6 | under |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 1.25% | 6 | under |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 1.25% | 6 | under |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 1.25% | 10 | over |
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 1.25% | 6 | under |
| Derrick Coleman | 1 | 1.25% | 7 | over |
Next, the same for the Patriots:
| Player | TD | Probability | Letters | winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 12 | 12.77% | 10 | over |
| Brandon LaFell | 7 | 7.45% | 6 | under |
| Tim Wright | 6 | 6.38% | 6 | under |
| Jonas Gray | 5 | 5.32% | 4 | under |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 4.26% | 7 | over |
| LeGarrette Blount | 3 | 3.19% | 6 | under |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 3.19% | 6 | under |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 2.13% | 6 | under |
| Stevan Ridley | 2 | 2.13% | 6 | under |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1.06% | 6 | under |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1.06% | 8 | over |
| Brian Tyms | 1 | 1.06% | 4 | under |
Adding the probability for each under and over win we get:
Under: 69.4%
Over: 30.6%
Surprisingly, the under is getting the plus money. At +125 and a 69.4% chance of winning, the 6 or less bet has a player advantage of 56.2%! It doesn't get much sweeter than that.
Unfortunately, I didn't take the time to do the math in the sports book so have no idea if this line is still there.
Quote: AyecarumbaSounds like a typo. What about Brady? Didn't he sneak any in this season? Also, some players are listed twice, but I assume the total rushing and receiving is correct
I'm sure I also missed some players on the defense and special teams. Those are just the rushing and passing touchdowns, which account for the vast majority.
Good luck rudeboyoi!Quote: rudeboyoiI made a bet on a 4 teamer parlay card at suncoast last night. I was comparing bets on the card to their packet. It was ties lose on the card. One of the bets was Under 2 fumbles lost (so under 1.5 fumbles lost). The packet had under 1.5 fumbles lost at -170. Then they had whether each teams ending score was odd or even. I selected odd for both. In the packet they had odd at -140. Then the rest of the bets weren't very good but you needed to pick 4 minimum so I picked Seattle +1 which is essentially Seattle PK with ties lose.
The odd/even end scores seem like a coin flip to me. If odd was -140 in the packet, what was even?
Quote: AyecarumbaGood luck rudeboyoi!
The odd/even end scores seem like a coin flip to me. If odd was -140 in the packet, what was even?
Thanks. +110 for even.
Quote: WizardHere is my analysis. To make the math easy, the spread is zero, meaning each team is equally likely to score the first touchdown.
First look at the top scoring players for the Seahawks. This table shows the probability each player will score the first touchdown, based on the number of touchdowns in the regular season, the number of letters in the last name, and whether the under or over wins.
Player TD Probability Letters winner Marshawn Lynch 13 16.25% 5 under Russell Wilson 6 7.50% 6 under Marshawn Lynch 4 5.00% 5 under Doug Baldwin 3 3.75% 7 over Luke Willson 3 3.75% 7 over Ricardo Lockette 2 2.50% 8 over Robert Turbin 2 2.50% 6 under Cooper Helfet 2 2.50% 6 under Percy Harvin 1 1.25% 6 under Jermaine Kearse 1 1.25% 6 under Paul Richardson 1 1.25% 10 over Tony Moeaki 1 1.25% 6 under Derrick Coleman 1 1.25% 7 over
Next, the same for the Patriots:
Player TD Probability Letters winner Rob Gronkowski 12 12.77% 10 over Brandon LaFell 7 7.45% 6 under Tim Wright 6 6.38% 6 under Jonas Gray 5 5.32% 4 under Julian Edelman 4 4.26% 7 over LeGarrette Blount 3 3.19% 6 under Shane Vereen 3 3.19% 6 under Shane Vereen 2 2.13% 6 under Stevan Ridley 2 2.13% 6 under Brandon Bolden 1 1.06% 6 under Danny Amendola 1 1.06% 8 over Brian Tyms 1 1.06% 4 under
Adding the probability for each under and over win we get:
Under: 69.4%
Over: 30.6%
Surprisingly, the under is getting the plus money. At +125 and a 69.4% chance of winning, the 6 or less bet has a player advantage of 56.2%! It doesn't get much sweeter than that.
Unfortunately, I didn't take the time to do the math in the sports book so have no idea if this line is still there.
Some of these players will not be playing. Harvin was traded from Seattle. Ridley was injured for New England and is not playing. Will this mean the stats should be updated?
Quote: AyecarumbaGood luck rudeboyoi!
The odd/even end scores seem like a coin flip to me. If odd was -140 in the packet, what was even?
I'm sure there are other factors as well, but one should consider that the most common ways to score are TD + PAT and FG, both of which result in Odd totals if that is their only score that game.
Statistically speaking, and I'm just going to look at this year Regular Season:
My methodology was to look through all of the scores and exclude off-setting (Even-Odd, Odd-Even) games. Therefore, I only included games in which both totals were even or both totals were odd.
Interestingly enough, Even had the lead until Week 8 when Odd ran away with it and never looked back. Ultimately, 68 games resulted in both teams having an Odd total while 49 games resulted in both teams having an even total. The difference, therefore, is (68-49)*2 = 38 more Odd scores than Even scores.
There are thirty-two teams who play sixteen games, thus, there are 512 total final scores.
If we do a binomial distribution based on a coin-flip, the probability of having 275 flips land heads (or more) compared to only 237 tails (difference of 38 results) is 0.050958505514 or 1/0.050958505514 = 1 in 19.6238094095
Granted, it's a limited sample size, but given the fact that the Line for this bet is where it is, I would say it supports the conclusion that odd scores are considerably more likely than even ones.
Further, if the probability of an Odd score were actually 275/512 = 53.711%, then:
(-140 * .46289) + (100 * .53711) = -11.0936
(110 * .46289) - (100 * .53711) = -2.7931
Which would mean, while Even is the better bet, both bets have a negative expectation. The effective House Edge, per bet, would be:
-11.0936/140 = 7.924%
2.7931/110 = 2.539%
Of course, their Lines are probably based on full historical data with modern Rules. I tend to think that Even ran better than expected the first half of the year.
Quote: rudeboyoiI made a bet on a 4 teamer parlay card at suncoast last night. I was comparing bets on the card to their packet. It was ties lose on the card. One of the bets was Under 2 fumbles lost (so under 1.5 fumbles lost). The packet had under 1.5 fumbles lost at -170. Then they had whether each teams ending score was odd or even. I selected odd for both. In the packet they had odd at -140. Then the rest of the bets weren't very good but you needed to pick 4 minimum so I picked Seattle +1 which is essentially Seattle PK with ties lose.
There won't be a tie, not possible in the Superbowl. Also, isn't Seattle +1 Seattle PK with Ties win... (and a 1 point loss a push, which is the one case where the points matter).
Quote: thecesspitThere won't be a tie, not possible in the Superbowl. Also, isn't Seattle +1 Seattle PK with Ties win... (and a 1 point loss a push, which is the one case where the points matter).
The cards is ties lose. So if Seattle lost by 1pt I would lose instead of pushing. And since there can't be a tie in the superbowl. It's not +.5 but PK. And on the other side was -1 ties lose so that's the same as -1.5. So the lines on the card were essentially patriots -1.5 and Seahawks PK.
Actually patriots -1.5 and Seahawks -.5 would be more accurate now that I think about it. Since a PK means a push on a tie score.
Pretty much my thought process went like "you bastards only gave me 3 good bets on this card! But I need 4... I want to see Seahawks win. Go seahawks!"
Quote: BeardgoatSome of these players will not be playing. Harvin was traded from Seattle. Ridley was injured for New England and is not playing. Will this mean the stats should be updated?
Those two players had only three touchdowns between them. Removing them will favor the over 6.5 letters a bit but not enough to significantly change the line.
I am interested, but what stakes?Quote: BeardgoatI would like to bet there will be a 2 point conversion. Any one feel like taking my action?
Sent you a PMQuote: BeardgoatThinking of risking $20-$30 to win $80-$120
Quote: BeardgoatI would like to bet there will be a 2 point conversion. Any one feel like taking my action?
The going odds on that are:
Yes +280
No -380
+280 seems pretty low though. Bovada is at +350 and I feel like they normally have crappy odds
Must be alot of YES money flowing in. I am nervous about taking the NO on this one, but it should be a good sweat.Quote: BeardgoatThe odds on that really dropped this year. I got it against another member here last year for +450.
+280 seems pretty low though. Bovada is at +350 and I feel like they normally have crappy odds
Quote: BeardgoatThe odds on that really dropped this year. I got it against another member here last year for +450.
+280 seems pretty low though. Bovada is at +350 and I feel like they normally have crappy odds
I put the yes fair at +569. I plan to bet the no but not for much.
2014: 512 Scores, 275-ODD 237-EVEN
2013: 512 Scores, 266-ODD 256-EVEN
2012: 512 Scores, 259-ODD 253-EVEN
2011: 512 Scores, 268-ODD 244-EVEN
2010: 512 Scores, 245-ODD 267-EVEN
5 Year Totals: 2,560 Scores, 1313-ODD 1247-EVEN
In this case, the binomial distribution of 2560 coin tosses and 1313 (or more) coming up heads gives a probability of 0.100272 which is essentially 1 in 10.
This yields a probability of odd, based on the sample, of 1313/2560 = 51.2891%
(-140 * .487109) + (100 * .5121891) = -16.97635
(110 * .487109) - (100 * .5121891) = +2.36308
Conclusion
Based on the last five years of data, this isn't exactly a coin flip, but it seems that the +110 for EVEN is a slightly positive bet.
2.36308/100 = +2.36308% Advantage
16.97635/140 = 12.126% Disadvantage
If you would like to go back further, you can, but I'm pretty well satisfied with these results.
Quote: BeardgoatI'll give +700 on the OT. willing to lose up to $210. So if there is an OT I'll pay $210, if no OT the loser pays me $30. To be paid via paypal
Those are the same as the Bovada Odds if someone wants the YES! That said, I do not.
Quote: Mission146I'm going to work on this a bit more, and I don't know why...
2014: 512 Scores, 275-ODD 237-EVEN
2013: 512 Scores, 266-ODD 256-EVEN
2012: 512 Scores, 259-ODD 253-EVEN
2011: 512 Scores, 268-ODD 244-EVEN
2010: 512 Scores, 245-ODD 267-EVEN
5 Year Totals: 2,560 Scores, 1313-ODD 1247-EVEN
In this case, the binomial distribution of 2560 coin tosses and 1313 (or more) coming up heads gives a probability of 0.100272 which is essentially 1 in 10.
This yields a probability of odd, based on the sample, of 1313/2560 = 51.2891%
(-140 * .487109) + (100 * .5121891) = -16.97635
(110 * .487109) - (100 * .5121891) = +2.36308
Conclusion
Based on the last five years of data, this isn't exactly a coin flip, but it seems that the +110 for EVEN is a slightly positive bet.
2.36308/100 = +2.36308% Advantage
16.97635/140 = 12.126% Disadvantage
If you would like to go back further, you can, but I'm pretty well satisfied with these results.
So is a fair line for odd about -107? This bet I made prob isn't +EV then. I'm getting 10:1. I should be getting like +105 for Seahawks -.5. The fair line for under 1.5 fumbles lost would have to be -230 for it to be break even.
Quote: BeardgoatI'll give +700 on the OT. willing to lose up to $210. So if there is an OT I'll pay $210, if no OT the loser pays me $30. To be paid via paypal
I actually want to bet on overtime but the Wizard has the fair line at -1340.
Quote: rudeboyoi
So is a fair line for odd about -107? This bet I made prob isn't +EV then. I'm getting 10:1. I should be getting like +105 for Seahawks -.5. The fair line for under 1.5 fumbles lost would have to be -230 for it to be break even.
If you wanted to do it based off the last five years, then all you would do is replace the variable (the Odds you're laying) with x and make the entire thing equal zero, so:
(100 * .5121891) - (x * .487109) = 0
x = 105.1487655
Which means you'd want to lay no more than $105.1487655 to win $100.
Conclusion
Unfortunately, I think that you have a bad bet, overall. If we give Seattle an exactly 50% chance of winning and the probability of each score ending in odd is .5121891, then:
(.5121891 * .5121891 * .5) = 0.13116883707
You have a 13.116883707% chance of winning before you even get into worrying about the fumbles being under 1.5.
((1-.13116883707) * 100) - (1000 * 0.13116883707) = -44.285720777 which is an expectation of +$44.285720777 for you...before considering the fumble.
If we factor in those fumbles, we want the final result for a break even bet to be:
((1 - x) * 100) - (1000 * x) = 0
x = 0.09090909091
Which requires you to have a 9.090909091% probability of winning, which means the probability of under 1.5 fumbles must be:
.13116883707 * x = .09090909091
x = 0.6930692758
If we convert that probability to a ML, we get:
http://www.covers.com/sportsbetting/money_lines.aspx
-225.8064
Thus, if the fair line for the UNDER 1.5 fumbles has you laying less than 225.8064 to win 100, you might have an advantage.
DISCLAIMER
The data for the Odd/Even scores is based on just the last five years of NFL statistics, I make no claim concerning the validity of that data over the long run, and further note that the results, according to binomial distribution, are within the second standard deviation.
Fumble Stuff
Just looking at the last five years, these two teams have combined for an average fumbles lost of:
2014: .6
2013: 1.1
2012: 1
2011: 1
2010: .9
4.6/5 = .92 Fumbles lost per game
Further, they force an average of:
2014: 1.3
2013: 1.4
2012: 1.9
2011: 1.3
2010: 1.4
7.3/5 = 1.46 Opponent fumbles lost per game
If you take the mean of those two stats...because I don't know what the heck else you'd do with them...you arrive at 1.19 total fumbles lost per game, on average.
New England and Seattle only played each other once in that timespan, so you're talking about 159 game sample size between the two teams for regular season games. It doesn't matter, but Seattle lost two fumbles in that game and New England lost zero.
I don't know what you do with that, other than it's pretty likely that there will be less than two fumbles lost in the game.
