ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 14th, 2015 at 2:20:21 PM permalink
Hi,

I have been betting on the 'will player x win game y of set z' live tennis for the last couple of days and made $10k + with little financial risk***.

*** Anything that involves 'investing' money always has some risk, and in my opinion the overall FINANCIAL risk is low to acceptable.

Anyway, I was wondering what the best way to go about live betting on the tennis would be in terms of, risk of getting banned (trying not to be labelled an 'advantage player' etc) ? (see parameters below)

-----------------------
Parameters:

Bet Type: Live betting on player x winning game y of set z,

Reason I think I have an advantage: The prices are 'slow^^^' to update, when a player scores.

^^^: The prices are slow relative to my 'clicking speed'... for example, at the beginning of the match, Player x1 vs Player x2 are +300 and - 400 respectively,
lets say Player x1 wins the first point (the game is now 15 - 0) I seem to have up-to 2 seconds to bet on Player x1 at the 'old' price of +300, and about 95% of the time I seem to get on at the +300.

Reason I think I will be barred (eventually): To continue the example above, lets says the price has changed to -186 for Player x2, I then would bet on Player x2, and win about 11% on investment, again been paid already ($10k profit)
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EDIT(14/01 @ 1646 PST) : above where it says 'been paid already' i meant to say, 'i have transferred $10k profit from the 'live betting' section to the 'normal betting' section (still waiting on the withdrawal request, should find out if it approved or not within 48 hours)

-----------------------

Strategies to consider in minimising the risk of being labelled an advantage player:

(1) Don't hedge the bets and bet smaller, (still take the advantage of being up-to 2 seconds faster than the price update)

(2) If planning to hedge, use multiple accounts (open accounts in friends names, have two + computers running etc)

(3) "Make a bad bet on purpose", less than 25% of the time bet on a 'negative' expectation possibility.

(4) feel free to post other strategies you think i would need to use
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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January 14th, 2015 at 2:56:55 PM permalink
Assuming this is an online book, I wouldn't be surprised if they refuse to pay you when you try to withdraw, because you violated their terms of service by betting faster than their software could update.

But if you get your money, more power to you.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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January 14th, 2015 at 3:43:49 PM permalink
Ask Romes how this will turn out.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Venthus
Venthus
Joined: Dec 10, 2012
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January 14th, 2015 at 3:56:09 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Assuming this is an online book, I wouldn't be surprised if they refuse to pay you when you try to withdraw, because you violated their terms of service by betting faster than their software could update.

But if you get your money, more power to you.



Is that a standard clause?

A few months ago, I was watching live lines on a US football game on a UK site and noticed that the game didn't actually close until about 15 seconds (!) after the game ended. (Admittedly, the last few seconds, the line plunged to like -2000...) The delay was consistent for people in Europe too, so it wasn't a connection issue.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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January 14th, 2015 at 4:30:06 PM permalink
Quote: Venthus

Is that a standard clause?

A few months ago, I was watching live lines on a US football game on a UK site and noticed that the game didn't actually close until about 15 seconds (!) after the game ended. (Admittedly, the last few seconds, the line plunged to like -2000...) The delay was consistent for people in Europe too, so it wasn't a connection issue.


It's standard practice for shady internet casinos to take your money when you lose, and take your money when you win too, citing you violated some non-specific rule. You don't have too look around this board much to find examples.

I'm not saying it will happen, but you have to consider the possibility, especially for an online casino without a good reputation. And ESPECIALLY in a "seems too good to be true" situation.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 14th, 2015 at 4:38:02 PM permalink
To AcesAndEights (and everyone else interested)

will keep you posted how many times i get paid (if any) before they bar me from that service,

there is currently nothing in their terms that says so, "...violated terms of service by betting faster than their software could update" (or similar)

Maybe i should increase the 'bad'*** bet (betting on the side without the advantage) from what i said before to about 40% of the time.

***: the 'bad' bet is only betting to about a 5% house edge, because i selected the 'accept current odds, and changes in MY FAVOUR' (doing it this way i have always received the larger odds, and the book seems to hover around the 105%, hence the ~ 5% house edge)

also, I have plenty of friends with accounts (about 6), so if my account get barred i still have their accounts for 'insurance' or whatever, (hopefully they continue to offer this service for a long time)

again, will keep you posted when/if i get paid,

surprised they haven't flagged me yet, made $3800 in the last hour, i am in front enough now not to 'hedge' anymore (hope it doesn't sound like i am gloating too much) usually these online casinos/ sportsbooks, are quick to flag, this is my third day now and no phone call or email...
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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January 14th, 2015 at 4:48:24 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

To AcesAndEights (and everyone else interested)

will keep you posted how many times i get paid (if any) before they bar me from that service,

there is currently nothing in their terms that says so, "...violated terms of service by betting faster than their software could update" (or similar)

Maybe i should increase the 'bad'*** bet (betting on the side without the advantage) from what i said before to about 40% of the time.

***: the 'bad' bet is only betting to about a 5% house edge, because i selected the 'accept current odds, and changes in MY FAVOUR' (doing it this way i have always received the larger odds, and the book seems to hover around the 105%, hence the ~ 5% house edge)

also, I have plenty of friends with accounts (about 6), so if my account get barred i still have their accounts for 'insurance' or whatever, (hopefully they continue to offer

again, will keep you posted when/if i get paid,

surprised they haven't flagged me yet, made $3800 in the last hour, i am in front enough now not to 'hedge' anymore (hope it doesn't sound like i am gloating too much) usually these online casinos/ sportsbooks, are quick to flag, this is my third day now and no phone call or email...


My only suggestion is that you attempt to make a withdrawal now, before you waste more time.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 14th, 2015 at 4:51:12 PM permalink
already put in a withdrawal request yesterday, so should find out within 48 hours, (on their site it says 24 to 72 hours to process)
Aussie
Aussie
Joined: Dec 29, 2009
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January 14th, 2015 at 7:04:37 PM permalink
Use Betfair instead. I do similar in-play betting most grand slam tournaments. Not being faster than the site updates (there is a 5 second delay between confirming your bet and having it matched) but taking advantage of the over-reaction of the herd to certain events. For example a big underdog breaking the serve of a heavy favourite will usually result in a larger change to the match odds than really should happen.

You need to ensure the "live" TV coverage that you are watching is actually live though. Much of the time it is delayed by a few seconds. Probably not a huge issue in tennis where is can be up to 30 seconds between points but other sports where there aren't any real regular stoppages can cause you problems.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 16th, 2015 at 1:22:04 PM permalink
thanks Aussie, I have a betfair account so I will try it that way as well, (especially if I don't get paid from the current way I am doing it)

to AcesAndEights and everyone else interested, I am starting to 'sweat a bit' on getting the money, but I still have until about 2300 today (PST), 16/01/2015, before I should really be worried about getting paid, by then it would have been 72 hours since my request, which is the maximum time a withdrawal takes (according to their site)

again, I haven't broken any of 'the sites' CURRENT rules (I have been taking screenshots of the rules with date/time clearly visible as proof) but at the same time my business is probably marked 'suspicious', since I turned 780 into 10k+ in two days (mainly on the tennis)

lastly, will keep you posted on whether i get paid or not, and also whether my account gets barred entirely, just barred from the 'live betting sections', or 'nothing bad happens' to me/my account.

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