NCAA Championship Game

Oregon has opened at a 7 Point favorite. Ohio State has looked great last games with a 3rd string QB.

Any ideas on which way the line will move or thoughts on the game?

My unschooled opinion. I think the line will widen, and end up around -11 Oregon.

Oregon has the super-efficient hurry-up offense. They have a super-rich program because of Nike, and can make any necessary adjustments as the game goes. They only allowed 20 points to one of the best offenses in college football at full strength.

THE Ohio State has a 3rd string QB in only his 4th start with 11 days to worry over playing a Nat'l championship. Alabama beat themselves with overconfidence and turnovers, plus not getting it done; they were the better team but didn't live up to their potential. TOS allowed 35 points defensively, and nearly went into overtime.

I'm the opposite. Too many OSU fans around the country. They'll jump on being given a TD which will make the line go down to Oregon minus 6 or 6.5...

Of course I have zero inside knowledge but this is just my honest opinion

Quote: Beardgoat

I'm the opposite. Too many OSU fans around the country. They'll jump on being given a TD which will make the line go down to Oregon minus 6 or 6.5...

Of course I have zero inside knowledge but this is just my honest opinion

Point well taken. It does come down to what's getting booked, more than the event itself sometimes, doesn't it.

I think the line is a little lower than it statistically should be. I thought the line would open around 9.

I am from Ohio and am a Buckeye fan but I will be betting Oregon -7.

I expect my alma mater Iowa to lose today to Tennessee.

Pardon me for being in pedantic mode, but the "NCAA Championship Game" is between North Dakota State and Illinois State.

Technically, they can't even call Oregon-Ohio State a "bowl game" - it's a "postseason game between the winners of two bowl games, the participants of which are selected by Football Bowl Subdivision conferences and independent institutions."

Another technicality; unlike with the BCS, where the voters in the coaches poll were required to vote the BCS championship game winner #1, neither the coaches nor the AP poll sportswriters are required to vote the CFP championship game winner #1, and if neither does, then the school cannot give its players true "national champions" rings (although they can carve "national champions" on the players' allowed Rose/Sugar Bowl rings - it's not clear if "CFP championship game" rings are allowed). Of course, that assumes a scenario where a team that beats two teams almost certainly ranked in everybody's top 5 (while 3 of the other 4 lose a game) at the end of the season doesn't end up ranked #1.

I will definitely take Oregon - 7. I think the line will widen, probably to around Oregon -9.5

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Pardon me for being in pedantic mode, but the "NCAA Championship Game" is between North Dakota State and Illinois State.

Technically, they can't even call Oregon-Ohio State a "bowl game" - it's a "postseason game between the winners of two bowl games, the participants of which are selected by Football Bowl Subdivision conferences and independent institutions."

Another technicality; unlike with the BCS, where the voters in the coaches poll were required to vote the BCS championship game winner #1, neither the coaches nor the AP poll sportswriters are required to vote the CFP championship game winner #1, and if neither does, then the school cannot give its players true "national champions" rings (although they can carve "national champions" on the players' allowed Rose/Sugar Bowl rings - it's not clear if "CFP championship game" rings are allowed). Of course, that assumes a scenario where a team that beats two teams almost certainly ranked in everybody's top 5 (while 3 of the other 4 lose a game) at the end of the season doesn't end up ranked #1.

There is a BCS Champion ring that has been awarded in addition to a bowl ring (and in addition to a conference champion ring, if applicable for a possible total of three rings). I expect this practice would continue.

I expect the line to stay at 7. It will move when the sharp money comes in on the Duck's side. I expect Oregon to win by two touchdowns. Even if you subtract all the scores from turnovers, Oregon still beat an undefeated FSU squad handily.

Quote: Ayecarumba

There is a BCS Champion ring that has been awarded in addition to a bowl ring (and in addition to a conference champion ring, if applicable for a possible total of three rings). I expect this practice would continue.

The "BCS Champion Ring" is the AFCA (i.e. the coaches poll) national championship ring. The NCAA allows separate "national championship" rings to be awarded in football to a team that is named the national champion buy either the AFCA (which, as I said earlier, was contractually obligated to name the BCS champion as its champion) or a "national wire service poll" (i.e. the AP, which is why USC is considered a "national champion" in football in the BCS era despite never having won a championship game that was not later vacated by the NCAA).

There is nothing on the AFCA website that says that they have to name the CFP winner as its national champion, although like I said, I can't think of a plausible situation where it would not do so. Also, it appears that, while the NCAA tried to amend enough bylaws to allow for the CFP championship game (remember, before this year, each team was allowed to play only one postseason game besides a conference championship, which is one of the reasons BCS never had an "and one" format), they left one out; since the CFP championship is not a "bowl game", technically neither the schools nor the CFP organization can award rings for it; even if the CFP can, they would have to give them to both teams, although theoretically they could give the winners "CFP Champion" rings and the losers "CFP Runner-Up" rings.

There is a clause in the NCAA bylaws that says that the CFP organizers can give rings for "participation in other established meets, tournaments and featured individual competition"; if the CFP is considered an "established tournament", then its organizers can give out rings to both teams. I think the rule is meant for something like the NIT.

i read an article a few days ago saying that all the buckeye fans were betting heavy on their side. they said it should have moved the lines but the bookmakers said that if they moved it to offset the betting, sharks would come in and take advantage of the low line and bet heavy on Alabama... pushing back to the -9. I think I saw -7.5 a few hours before kickoff though. perhaps due to sparty and bucky winning? making the big ten look better?

I wonder if they lost money, or if the late line move was enough to get some bama bettors. and would the possibility of the line being to low cause the same issues?

Quote: Stoney

i read an article a few days ago saying that all the buckeye fans were betting heavy on their side. they said it should have moved the lines but the bookmakers said that if they moved it to offset the betting, sharks would come in and take advantage of the low line and bet heavy on Alabama... pushing back to the -9. I think I saw -7.5 a few hours before kickoff though. perhaps due to sparty and bucky winning? making the big ten look better?

I wonder if they lost money, or if the late line move was enough to get some bama bettors. and would the possibility of the line being to low cause the same issues?

A "heavy" buckeye fan bet would be $100.usd. Since the result didn't fall in the middle one can assume the bookmakers made a fortune.

To move the Oregon - 7 vs. OSU off said 7 would it seems take a lot of money or some sort of outside influence such as Jerry Jones on the side/sideline since the game is in Dallas.

Quote: beachbumbabs

They have a super-rich program because of Nike,

Curious why that matters? We have also wondered where Oregon gets its players. They don't look like they come from the North West wearing hiking boots and fur skin caps.

Quote: NokTang

Curious why that matters? We have also wondered where Oregon gets its players. They don't look like they come from the North West wearing hiking boots and fur skin caps.

Elite programs recruit from all over the country. Although 26 of the gigantic 100ish man roster came from Oregon.

And I would definitely be jumping on Oregon -7. I thought -10 was about right.

So, for those of you who bet Oregon -7 early, how many of you are going to jump on Ohio State plus the points if the line does move a few points towards the favorite by game time? Looks like it might develop into an excellent middle opportunity.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Pardon me for being in pedantic mode, but the "NCAA Championship Game" is between North Dakota State and Illinois State.

Technically, they can't even call Oregon-Ohio State a "bowl game" - it's a "postseason game between the winners of two bowl games, the participants of which are selected by Football Bowl Subdivision conferences and independent institutions."

Another technicality; unlike with the BCS, where the voters in the coaches poll were required to vote the BCS championship game winner #1, neither the coaches nor the AP poll sportswriters are required to vote the CFP championship game winner #1, and if neither does, then the school cannot give its players true "national champions" rings (although they can carve "national champions" on the players' allowed Rose/Sugar Bowl rings - it's not clear if "CFP championship game" rings are allowed). Of course, that assumes a scenario where a team that beats two teams almost certainly ranked in everybody's top 5 (while 3 of the other 4 lose a game) at the end of the season doesn't end up ranked #1.

I thought I was the only one who followed small school football. For those of you not familiar with the Football Championship Subdivision here's what the playoff picture looked like this year:

http://championshipsubdivision.com/history-of-the-fcs-playoffs/

The reason I follow small school football is because of Montana and Montana State. The Montana Grizzlies have a history of doing very well in the FCS playoffs. Although they got beat early this year. North Dakota State has won it the last two years and it looks like they are going to win it again.

Quote: mickeycrimm

So, for those of you who bet Oregon -7 early, how many of you are going to jump on Ohio State plus the points if the line does move a few points towards the favorite by game time? Looks like it might develop into an excellent middle opportunity.

It would not be worth the takeback unless somehow it got to 10. Just not enough value at 8 and 9 to cover the juice. In NFL it might be a better bet than in college.

Quote: NokTang

Curious why that matters? We have also wondered where Oregon gets its players. They don't look like they come from the North West wearing hiking boots and fur skin caps.

My saying that was based on the support Nike's money gives the Ducks behind the scene/up in the booth; they have leading-technology analysis and staff most other schools (even big ones) can't afford or haven't implemented. So they can calculate the opponents' moves, both offense and defense, on a real-time basis and adjust their moves with a near-psychic accuracy during the game. Kind of a moneyball approach that works for them. It's also behind their hurry-up offense.

Betonline, 5dimes, sportsbetting.ag all have Oregon at -6.5 now

Edit: William Hill and station casinos also at -6.5 now

Quote: beachbumbabs

My saying that was based on the support Nike's money gives the Ducks behind the scene/up in the booth; they have leading-technology analysis and staff most other schools (even big ones) can't afford or haven't implemented. So they can calculate the opponents' moves, both offense and defense, on a real-time basis and adjust their moves with a near-psychic accuracy during the game. Kind of a moneyball approach that works for them. It's also behind their hurry-up offense.

Thought of your post when I read this:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12142088/nfl-investigating-whether-text-messages-were-sent-cleveland-browns-sideline-games

Not sure of the rule in college ball, but this seems to match what you described Oregon does using NIKE as a consultant or financier.

Meanwhile, in case you missed the news, Oregon is down to minus 6 points and may drop further due to the recent dope smoking suspension and rumors of more "ducks" failing. So much for all the hoopla about it going to minus 10 points.

The Ducks are in a bit of a jam when it comes to their pass catchers--they've lost their #2 in catches (Allen; knee injury) and #2 in yards (Carrington, too stupid to not smoke dope when tests are imminent). They also have a tight end hurt. They still have "#1" in those two categories but they are in a situation where it is up to former #3, #4, etc. folks to prove they can do enough to fill in for the losses...much the same as Ohio State's quarterback had to step up from being #3.

I'm rooting for the Buckeyes and I think the Ducks should be favored. I also believe that if Ohio State is able to punish them physically the way Alabama and Ohio State punished each other, things could swing in Ohio State's favor. The Alabama-Ohio State came was a very physical affair; with the shorter span between games, there could also be some cost to Ohio State from that game.

I also think all three of the other teams plus Baylor and TCU would have beaten Florida State but I don't know if they would have scored as many points as Oregon did--Oregon got up and FSU lost their spirit. Once that is lost, all kinds of bad things happen, including huge scores.

Ohio State 38, Oregon 35...

Quote: NokTang

Thought of your post when I read this:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12142088/nfl-investigating-whether-text-messages-were-sent-cleveland-browns-sideline-games

Not sure of the rule in college ball, but this seems to match what you described Oregon does using NIKE as a consultant or financier.

I think texts are illegal:

Quote: NCAA 2013 & 2014 Football Rules

Rule 1-4-11(b): Only voice communication between the press box and team area is permitted. Where press-box space is not adequate, only voice communication may originate from any area in the stands between the 25-yard lines extended to the top of the stadium. No other communication for coaching purposes is permitted anywhere else.

There's no penalty listed, although I am assuming it's the same as for players having communications equipment - 15 yards unsportsmanlike conduct.

Quote: Beardgoat

I'm the opposite. Too many OSU fans around the country. They'll jump on being given a TD which will make the line go down to Oregon minus 6 or 6.5...

Of course I have zero inside knowledge but this is just my honest opinion

Looks like I nailed this exactly. If only I was as good at picking winners as I am picking lines

Speaking of which, does anyone on the site want to make a wager? I'll take ohio state +6.5... I'd even take ohio state money line at +150 (it's 170 or 180 at the books). Willing to risk up to $50. Winner to be paid via paypal

Being from Pittsburgh there is no way I can root for OSU. Not real sure why, but it just doesn't feel right.

I'm an Arizona State fan. I hate OSU too. But I think they will win.

And thanks Pitt, for coach Todd Graham

Quote: Beardgoat

Speaking of which, does anyone on the site want to make a wager? I'll take ohio state +6.5... I'd even take ohio state money line at +150 (it's 170 or 180 at the books). Willing to risk up to $50. Winner to be paid via paypal

I'm interested. I am sending you a PM.

Sounds good. Accepted

Quote: Beardgoat

Sounds good. Accepted

Congrats BeardGoat! Good job trusting your football instincts. And congrats to The OSU for playing a dominating fourth quarter.

Quote: Beardgoat

I'm an Arizona State fan. I hate OSU too. But I think they will win.

And thanks Pitt, for coach Todd Graham

Uggg that was a shot to the gut early in the morning. Sports talk here still has some of his quotes running every once in a while. People are still outraged that when he took the job down there he told his players via text message, got on a plane and skipped town.

Hopefully nardozzi will be our savior.

Thanks Aye for the payment!

As for Pitt, it does seem very strange they can't find a coach to stick around. Todd graham got killed in the media for what he did, but I don't understand why. He left his job for a higher paying job in a part of the country he preferred over Pitt. I know a lot of Pitt fans are still bitter but almost all ASU fans I know are glad to have him

I hit a 7:1 futures bet on Ohio State last night. I almost threw that ticket away twice. Once when Miller went down. Then again after the Virginia Tech loss. Glad I held on to it. The bet wasn't resolved the way I thought, hell, the way anyone thought for that matter, but it's not how you get there, but where you get. I'll be mailing it into the Monte Carlo this week for collection.

I did hear last night that the odds were 40:1 after Miller went down. Would've been nice to have that one, oh well, I'll take my 7 and roll on.