Sabretom2
Sabretom2
Joined: Mar 3, 2013
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 718
May 2nd, 2015 at 7:18:15 AM permalink
On this first Saturday in May, let me give thanks to the duchess of Cambridge for giving birth to a princess and taking this Baltimore BS off the headlines, if only for a moment.
kenarman
kenarman
Joined: Nov 22, 2009
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 966
May 2nd, 2015 at 10:19:38 AM permalink
To continue my life long tradition of believing that if you are going to bother embarassing yourself you might as well make it a doozie.

My money will be on DANZIG MOON to win the Derby.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
May 2nd, 2015 at 12:09:02 PM permalink
International Star scratched this morning with left front foot heat (after a vet looked at him). 18 horses will now enter the gate.
----------

12.5 million currently in the Derby win pool. Florida Derby horses are being overlooked some. Ocho3 at 24/1 is somewhat surprising.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/kentucky-derby-live-odds
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1246
May 2nd, 2015 at 12:15:49 PM permalink
I put $4 WP on 2 Carpe Diem.
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
  • Threads: 155
  • Posts: 5701
May 2nd, 2015 at 12:16:32 PM permalink
Call me Mr. Chalk.....Bet $150-$150-$100 on American Pharaoh along with $2 EB 18/All for $68 and $5 EB 2-8-18 for $30.

And if he doesn't money, I just added to the pool for all of you who knew what you were doing. Good Luck everyone!
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
May 2nd, 2015 at 12:26:29 PM permalink
From the low volume buzz I pick up in a large mid-Strip book, I'm ready to give Danzig Moon the trophy for being this year's 'wiseguy' horse. But shhh, don't tell anybody. In spite of that (definitely not because of it) I will bet him by using him underneath in some multi-horse exotics, but I won't have him in the win position.

If anyone with am interest in this topic has never done this event in one of the major Las Vegas racebooks, you really should do that one of these Mays. The crowd and their nervous excitement builds gradually hour by hour through the day until it becomes a communal thunderstorm.

Right now, about four hours before Derby post time, it is still not too hard for people to get in and find a piece of carpet to stand on. From which, if they are tall enough, they can point and glare at Drawing Dead in his seats, plural, in two of those suddenly precious things holding me and all my horse-y race-y bet-y stuff and gizmos, provoking annoyance from the crowded masses as they are squeezed tighter minute to minute, which I can assure you I enjoy ten times more than I ever did merely jumping occasional buffet lines with some fancy card.

And for a while longer it is still somewhat possible for the poor cocktail bimbo (sorry but she is - even Gloria Steinem would just bury her face in her hands and agree) to navigate the tide for now, but that won't last and she'll become a prisoner pushed this way and that in the surging waves of collective madness. At the moment they begin to lead them out to the track for The Race the scene will escalate to an eruption that washes out over the casino far beyond the book. And then, with that little precursor earthquake, the whole thing starts to get more intensely cooking and shaking, all well before even getting to the mass orgasm of the starting gate opening.

By now folks with enough interest to look at this thread probably know that International Star is a late scratch. Or you do now. I see Keeneone has it covered.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1246
May 2nd, 2015 at 12:39:22 PM permalink
I would never bet a chalk at 17 hole. NEVER.
Long shot, maybe a few bucks.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
May 2nd, 2015 at 12:44:23 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Call me Mr. Chalk.....Bet $150-$150-$100 on American Pharaoh along with $2 EB 18/All for $68 and $5 EB 2-8-18 for $30.

And if he doesn't money, I just added to the pool for all of you who knew what you were doing. Good Luck everyone!

Everybody knows what they are doing. Until the gate opens. Then nobody does.

If either of Dos Bafferts wins, I lose. At this point I estimate I have about a 43% chance of this coming out well for my wallet, one way or the other, or the other other. Meaning more likely that it doesn't, and that's with me doing the estimating of the value of my estimating. And that amounts to better than average prospects for me going into it for this insane event. And I'm fine with that.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
May 2nd, 2015 at 12:56:46 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Everybody knows what they are doing. Until the gate opens. Then nobody does.

If either of Dos Bafferts wins, I lose. At this point I estimate I have about a 43% chance of this coming out well for my wallet, one way or the other, or the other other. Meaning more likely that it doesn't, and that's with me doing the estimating of the value of my estimating. And that amounts to better than average prospects for me going into it for this insane event. And I'm fine with that.


If you do not mind telling, which runner represents you best ROI?
----------

The track seems plenty fast today. All dirt races have seen 461 or faster half-mile splits.
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
May 2nd, 2015 at 1:09:34 PM permalink
Mike De Kock has a runner in the Woodford Reserve called Umgiyo. He doesn't have the worst turf form in Dubai and if the opposition isn't too strong, if he gets away from the gate OK and if there is enough pace in the race, then he could surprise them here!

Hope to see him run OK so that we can deduce that both horses took their traveling well?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill

  • Jump to: