FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 15th, 2015 at 7:20:34 PM permalink
I wish he was taking visitors, I'll be at Arlington on Friday.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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April 15th, 2015 at 7:26:39 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Michael de Kock discusses how he's planned the nitty gritty details for bringing in Mubtaahij that I was wondering about earlier:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91278/mubtaahij-heads-to-skylight-in-louisville

Sounds very much like the right way (and not the way chosen by some others in other years) to give him his best shot, in my opinion.


Here is another article on Bloodhorse that goes into more detail about this horse's trip to the USA:
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2015/04/15/mubtaahij-leaves-for-america.aspx
Interesting stuff that includes a change to his diet. Love this quote (about the field) from de Kock:
"My goodness, I couldn’t have found another year?” he said jokingly.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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April 15th, 2015 at 7:51:47 PM permalink
A little problem some might be about to encounter, and I gather that at least one of us has been doing some advance chewing on: If I really liked the two probable co-favorites for this, Pharoah/Dortmund (I don't but I'll pretend), what would I do while keying either or both of them over the field (or most of it) in the exacta? What is the o/u on what THAT Baffert/Baffert combination would pay? Probably an amount that would make me sad, right after I thought I was happy. If those were the two I thought were the most likely winners, is there a particular reason I should think either is less likely to simultaneously complete the exacta? Maybe there is, but if so I really can't think of what that reason would be.

I really don't have anything useful to help with that conundrum; I'm just enjoying a little shameless schadenfreude moment with the thought. Shame on me. Y'all should sue for intentional infliction of whatchacallit. But I'll try to fake being a nice boy possessed of a naturally kind and generous spirit now.
Quote: Keeneone

I also like some of the specialty data like LP....

Do you happen to know how Brisnet calculates their "E1, E2, LP" numbers? I don't. Maybe the raw fractional time at a point of call vs. a par value for the class, perhaps? I dunno. Some of the races involved would have a limited amount of relevant data, due to a completely new surface in the most obvious case of Keeneland and their one short prior meet with it last fall for example.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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April 15th, 2015 at 7:57:15 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

"My goodness, I couldn’t have found another year?” he said jokingly.

His joking aside, I really do think there's a lot to that. Several recent years would've been a lot better "luck of the draw" to ship one in for this. I think it looks like one of the most salty Derby fields in quite a while.

It is an interesting and more detailed piece, and I probably would've missed catching the expanded version.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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April 15th, 2015 at 8:06:49 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

-edited-
I really don't have anything useful to help with that conundrum; I'm just enjoying a little shameless schadenfreude moment with the thought. Shame on me. Y'all should sue for intentional infliction of whatchacallit. But I'll try to fake being a nice boy possessed of a naturally kind and generous spirit now.Do you happen to know how Brisnet calculates their "E1, E2, LP" numbers? I don't. Maybe the raw fractional time at a point of call vs. a par value for the class, perhaps? I dunno. Some of the races involved would have a limited amount of relevant data, due to a completely new surface in the most obvious case of Keeneland and their one short prior meet with it last fall for example.


Here you go:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=pace


About Mike de Kock:
Yes, it looks a tough year to bring one over, but it will be that much sweeter if his charge wins it all....
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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April 15th, 2015 at 8:22:13 PM permalink
Thx:
Quote:

HOW ARE THE BRIS PACE RATINGS CALCULATED ?
Bloodstock Research uses proprietary techniques and algorithms which have been rigorously tested and long proven over hundreds of thousands of races to accurately compute the BRIS Pace variants and ratings.

...<Followed by stuff that's more useful than that.>...

Hmmm. "Proprietary techniques and algorithms which have been rigorously..." I tried a line like that on a (former) girlfriend once. She didn't buy it. Smart girl, unfortunately. But hungry for scraps of info I know I'll still throw it in the stew of things I consider on some level. Beyer did a number of very explicitly detailed books on methodology of variants & speed figures long before he got into selling the resulting race-specific numbers for publication; dog-eared decades old copies of them are holding down part of a shelf that's within arm's reach right now. But Andy-boy doesn't do pace. And neither evaluates trips.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 15th, 2015 at 10:16:50 PM permalink
Cyrus Alexander is running in Santa Anita's 3rd on Thursday the 15th. Now that my Derby future wagers on him are dead, he will likely win by open lengths wrapped up at the finish. Kidding aside, I do actually like him in the race, but unfortunately he is the morning line 9/5 favorite. Hopefully his odds will drift up and not down. Rock Shandy and Harmonic have stakes experience.
artvandelay
artvandelay
Joined: Jun 5, 2014
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April 16th, 2015 at 6:38:06 AM permalink
Remember kids, always look for value. Hahahaha
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
Joined: Apr 2, 2012
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April 16th, 2015 at 1:30:50 PM permalink
Thank you for pointing out my obvious mistake in not considering the 2nd place finishers odds. That's why I'm not AP haha.
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
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April 17th, 2015 at 3:00:26 PM permalink
An article on espn asks if this is the greatest ever KD field. Almost impossible to say but could be fun to discuss?
Go!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill

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