DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 6th, 2015 at 12:04:29 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Official winning time of the 2015 Kentucky Derby
Over 202.20 -110
Under 202.20 -110


This one interests me.

Over the last 20 years 8 races have gone over, 11 have been run under, and one was a 'push' on that line for final time. The median (not average) of times in that period was between fell between 2:02.17 in '07 and 2:02.04 in '11.

OV 2014 California Chrome 2:03.66
OV 2013 Orb 2:02.89
UN 2012 I'll Have Another 2:01.83
UN 2011 Animal Kingdom 2:02.04
OV 2010 Super Saver 2:04.45
OV 2009 Mine That Bird 2:02.66
UN 2008 Big Brown 2:01.82
UN 2007 Street Sense 2:02.17
UN 2006 Barbaro 2:01.36
OV 2005 Giacomo 2:02.75
OV 2004 Smarty Jones 2:04.06
UN 2003 Funny Cide 2:01.19
UN 2002 War Emblem 2:01.13
UN 2001 Monarchos 1:59.97
UN 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2:01.00
OV 1999 Charismatic 2:03.20
EV 1998 Real Quiet 2:02.20
OV 1997 Silver Charm 2:02.40
UN 1996 Grindstone 2:01.00
UN 1995 Thunder Gulch 2:01.20

[EDIT: Corrected multiple simple errors.]

One could suggest that due in part to the economics of the business the greatest bulk US bred thoroughbred racehorses are generally becoming less and less well suited to running classic distances of 10 furlongs and up, and are gradually tending more and more to be dominated by the precocious sort that's better at sprint to middle distance racing. On the other hand, the winner of the race is not obliged to carry the average ability of the whole breeding and racing world on his back while winning this. 2014 was a weak Derby year, but for 2015 I think this is a distinctly stronger than average crop, and deep, and the race shape is also starting to look like an honest to fast pace for the distance. Much of the running time tends to be determined by the condition of the surface at post time which is mostly unknowable before the afternoon of May 2nd, and by racing luck in a big field of up to 20 starters which will prevent some from getting a clean trip.

I think I like the under. I don't know that I like it enough to pay the vig on something that isn't a whole lot different than a coin flip. But I am a 100% undefeated lifetime winner at betting the Super Bowl coin toss, so back up the truck and unload it all on the under with your money.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 6th, 2015 at 1:02:26 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

This weekend Churchill Downs opens Pool #1 (of four separate pools) of their parimutual Kentucky Derby future wager, with wagering open for three days from Friday, November 28th to Sunday, November 30th for this pool. Someone out there will now be saying: "That's nuts...

...<SNIP>...

1 12 American Pharoah 7.0
2 20 Blofeld 6.2
3 20 Calculator 6.4
4 20 Carpe Diem 7.9
5 50 Classy Class 6.1
6 20 Competitive Edge 6.3
7 20 Daredevil 7.1
8 50 Dortmund 7.0
9 50 Eagle 7.1
10 50 El Kabeir 7.1
11 50 Frosted 7.5
12 50 I Spent It 6.4
13 50 Imperia 7.3
14 30 Lord Nelson 7.5
15 50 Lucky Player 6.7
16 30 Mr. Z 7.0
17 20 Ocho Ocho Ocho 7.3
18 50 Ostrolenka 7.0
19 50 Punctuate 7.0
20 15 Texas Red 8.1
21 30 The Great War 7.4
22 50 Unblunted 6.3
23 20 Upstart 6.9
24 3/5 All Others (Field)

29 days out, it appears only about half nuts.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 6th, 2015 at 9:42:44 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: DrawingDead

This weekend Churchill Downs opens Pool #1 (of four separate pools) of their parimutual Kentucky Derby future wager, with wagering open for three days from Friday, November 28th to Sunday, November 30th for this pool. Someone out there will now be saying: "That's nuts...
...<SNIP>...
1 12 American Pharoah 7.0
2 20 Blofeld 6.2
3 20 Calculator 6.4
4 20 Carpe Diem 7.9
5 50 Classy Class 6.1
6 20 Competitive Edge 6.3
7 20 Daredevil 7.1
8 50 Dortmund 7.0
9 50 Eagle 7.1
10 50 El Kabeir 7.1
11 50 Frosted 7.5
12 50 I Spent It 6.4
13 50 Imperia 7.3
14 30 Lord Nelson 7.5
15 50 Lucky Player 6.7
16 30 Mr. Z 7.0
17 20 Ocho Ocho Ocho 7.3
18 50 Ostrolenka 7.0
19 50 Punctuate 7.0
20 15 Texas Red 8.1
21 30 The Great War 7.4
22 50 Unblunted 6.3
23 20 Upstart 6.9
24 3/5 All Others (Field)

29 days out, it appears only about half nuts.


Even more nuts is your prediction of a 50/50 chance of the winner being listed in the first Derby pool:

Quote: DrawingDead

-edited-
Looking at their race records and the timing, if Churchill's Pool #1 field had existed on the last weekend of November for all of them, at least four, probably five, and perhaps as many as six would've been named as individual betting interests in it, in my opinion. If the most recent ten years was taken as predictive of this year's crop, that would imply about a 50% chance that the Derby winner was a named betting interest in the CD Pool #1 that closed ten days ago, and about a 50% probability that the "field" bet in that pool is a winner. That is not what I expected.
All of this should be taken with about 2.87 grains of salt, of course, because as a once a year event the most recent ten Derby winners provide a very limited sample size that could be misleading.


The current favorites (Dortmund/Carpe Diem/American Pharaoh) were listed in the first pool.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 6th, 2015 at 10:04:03 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
One could suggest that due in part to the economics of the business the greatest bulk US bred thoroughbred racehorses are generally becoming less and less well suited to running classic distances of 10 furlongs and up, and are gradually tending more and more to be dominated by the precocious sort that's better at sprint to middle distance racing. On the other hand, the winner of the race is not obliged to carry the average ability of the whole breeding and racing world on his back while winning this. 2014 was a weak Derby year, but for 2015 I think this is a distinctly stronger than average crop, and deep, and the race shape is also starting to look like an honest to fast pace for the distance. Much of the running time tends to be determined by the condition of the surface at post time which is mostly unknowable before the afternoon of May 2nd, and by racing luck in a big field of up to 20 starters which will prevent some from getting a clean trip.
I think I like the under. I don't know that I like it enough to pay the vig on something that isn't a whole lot different than a coin flip. But I am a 100% undefeated lifetime winner at betting the Super Bowl coin toss, so back up the truck and unload it all on the under with your money.


I also like the under. Obviously it depends on the CD track conditions on race day (as you have mentioned), which makes it difficult to bet early. Any moisture (on or near race day) would scare me off the under. This 3 year-old crop could certainly contain a "special" horse capable of fast times and even multiple Triple Crown race wins....
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 7th, 2015 at 10:32:29 PM permalink
Plenty of things happening with only 24 days before the Derby....

Danzig Moon, Ami's Flatter, and Conquest Typhoon are considering the Derby, but also thinking about the Queen's Plate (Canadian Bred 3yo race) @ Woobine in July.

After watching the Santa Anita Derby (a half dozen times) I just do not understand why M Smith (Bolo's jockey) does not tuck in behind Dortmund around the first turn. Not doing so let other runners claim the spot and caused Bolo to race wide throughout. He also blew the far turn racing very wide. I certainly expected improvement from him, but everything did not fall into place. C Gaines (Bolo's trainer) quotes after the race seem to suggest she will leave it "up to the owners" to decide what is next if he gets in. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for running in the Derby. What will be his next stop, the Derby or a turf Stakes?

Godolphin now has Maftool and Frosted in position to run. But will both actually enter?

The "bubble watch" (horses barely in or out of the race) is in full swing. I have horses on both sides right now. Things will become clearer after Saturday.

Awaiting the Arkansas Derby entries tomorrow (Wed Apr 8)....
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 8th, 2015 at 12:48:51 PM permalink
Saturday April 11, 2015 - Oaklawn - Arkansas Derby Grade 1 (11/8mile - 1 million)

1 - The Truth Or Else
2 - Mr. Z - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
3 - Bridget's Big Luvy
4 - Madefromlucky - 4th Derby pool future horse.
5 - Bold Conquest - 4th Derby pool future horse.
6 - American Pharoah - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
7 - Far Right - 2nd,3rd Derby pool future horse.
8 - Win the Space

-AP is the one to beat....period. This race does look a little different when compared to the Rebel Stakes. More distance, good chance of a fast track, and some new faces. Far Right skipped the Rebel and has 2 wins in Oaklawn stakes. Mr Z returns quickly and will certainly add blinkers back. He did little running in the LA Derby so should be good to go (to the front) if he likes. Bridget's Big Luvy could also show pace. The good news is AP will be outside both speed horses and can go to the front or sit back and track them. It may not be a bad thing to "school" him a little from off the pace. I just have a hard time believing a B. Baffert horse with his speed really wants to sit back and wait. He will probably take it to them from start to finish (just like Dortmund did). AP is listed as the 1/2 favorite. I have a small future ticket on Bold Conquest, so I hope he gets a top 4 finish.


----------


Saturday April 11, 2015 - Keeneland - Lexington Stakes Grade 3 (11/16mile - 250k)

1 - Divining Rod
2 - Comfort
3 - Quimet
4 - Tiznow R J
5 - Henry Jones
6 - Fame and Power
7 - Donworth

-Divining Rod or Tiznow R J would have a chance to make the Derby if they win and earn the 10 Derby points for first place. They are long shots at this point, but they are still in the hunt.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 8th, 2015 at 1:00:04 PM permalink
I have my own uses for these (which I won't go into) but for whatever those in this thread may find in them here are running times and fractional splits for the major final "preps" along with all other two-turn races that were run the same day at each of those tracks.

TrkR# 4 furlong 6 furlong 8 furlong 1-1/16m 9 furlong Dist 6f>8f splt Final 0.5f Final 1.0f Race conditions

Aqueduct 4/4
AQU04 00:49.06 01:13.40 01:37.98 01:44.43 01:50.87 9.0f 00:24.58 00:06.45 00:12.89 AlwN1X 3+
AQU07 00:47.52 01:12.48 01:37.86 01:44.21 01:50.55 8.0f 00:25.38 00:06.35 00:12.69 AOC40k/N2X 3+ (NY bred)
AQU08 00:48.06 01:13.56 01:38.95 01:45.56 01:52.17 9.0f 00:25.39 00:06.61 00:13.22 GR2 Stk300k F 3YO
AQU10 00:49.04 01:13.41 01:37.76 01:44.04 01:50.31 9.0f 00:24.35 00:06.28 00:12.55 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Wood Memorial)

Fair Grounds 3/28
FG_04 00:48.13 01:12.96 01:39.61 01:46.27 01:52.94 _8.3f 00:26.65 00:06.66 00:13.33 Stk75k F 3YO (LA bred)
FG_05 00:47.83 01:12.83 01:39.33 01:46.28 01:53.23 8.5f 00:26.50 00:06.95 00:13.90 Stk75k 3YO (LA bred)
FG_07 00:47.32 01:11.86 01:38.19 01:45.11 01:52.03 8.5f 00:26.33 00:06.92 00:13.84 Stk60k 4+ (LA bred)
FG_09 00:47.03 01:11.19 01:37.40 01:44.40 01:51.40 8.5f 00:26.21 00:07.00 00:14.00 GR2 Stk400k F 3YO
FG_10 00:47.57 01:11.27 01:36.83 01:43.95 01:51.07 9.0f 00:25.56 00:07.12 00:14.24 GR2 Stk400k 4+
FG_11 00:48.59 01:13.27 01:37.94 01:44.31 01:50.67 9.0f 00:24.67 00:06.37 00:12.73 GR2 Stk750k 3YO (Louisiana Derby)

Gulfstream 3/28
GP_05 00:48.97 01:13.81 01:38.72 01:45.35 01:51.97 _9.5f 00:24.91 00:06.63 00:13.25 GR3 Stk150k 4+
GP_12 00:48.25 01:13.57 01:40.53 01:47.40 01:54.27 8.5f 00:26.96 00:06.87 00:13.74 GR2 Stk250k F 3YO
GP_14 00:48.24 01:12.51 01:38.57 01:45.44 01:52.30 9.0f 00:26.06 00:06.87 00:13.73 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Florida Derby)

Keeneland 4/4
KEE01 00:51.01 01:15.88 01:39.92 01:45.75 01:51.58 8.5f 00:24.04 00:05.83 00:11.66 AOC80k/N3X F&M 4+
KEE02 00:48.07 01:12.83 01:38.45 01:44.85 01:51.25 8.5f 00:25.62 00:06.40 00:12.80 AlwN2X 4+ (off turf)
KEE03 00:48.13 01:12.49 01:37.25 01:43.46 01:49.67 8.5f 00:24.76 00:06.21 00:12.42 MSW 3YO
KEE04 00:48.62 01:12.53 01:37.72 01:44.37 01:51.02 9.0f 00:25.19 00:06.65 00:13.30 AlwN3X 4+ (off turf)
KEE09 00:48.53 01:12.86 01:37.34 01:43.66 01:49.98 8.5f 00:24.48 00:06.32 00:12.64 GR1 Stk500k F 3YO
KEE10 00:48.05 01:12.18 01:36.94 01:43.36 01:49.77 9.0f 00:24.76 00:06.42 00:12.83 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Blue Grass)

Santa Anita 4/4
SA_05 00:45.94 01:09.97 01:36.34 01:43.11 01:49.88 8.0f 00:26.37 00:06.77 00:13.54 AOC40k/N1X 4+
SA_07 00:46.34 01:10.76 01:36.63 01:43.26 01:49.89 8.5f 00:25.87 00:06.63 00:13.26 GR1 Stk400k F 3YO
SA_08 00:46.36 01:10.57 01:35.68 01:42.21 01:48.73 9.0f 00:25.11 00:06.53 00:13.05 GR1 Stk1m 3YO (Santa Anita Derby)

Final times are in bold. The day's hot pace to 3/4m is in red. Times and splits that are italicized and colored blue are not actual, but are projections from what they would be *IF* that race continued at the same speed as the final pace of that race. Use in your own way, at your own risk, and good luck.

I may edit this later to include the Arkansas Derby.

EDIT (4/8): Corrected omission of highlighting to indicate projected rather than actual times & splits in several races at FG, and notation that the 2nd race at Keeneland was moved "off turf."
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 8th, 2015 at 1:56:29 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

I have my own uses for these (which I won't go into) but for whatever those in this thread may find in them here are running times and fractional splits for the major final "preps" along with all other two-turn races that were run the same day at each of those tracks.


I would guess you are calculating "turn time". (maybe the 6f>8f splt for these 2 turn routes?)
Or maybe you are Andrew Beyer in real life:) (I am kidding).

It is a nice set of data that is interesting to go over and compare. Thanks for posting. It confirms my opinions about the individual races;

-The Blue Grass was ho-hum workmanlike.
-The Wood was slow early and fast late.
-The Louisiana Derby was slow early and very fast late.
-The Florida Derby is hard to figure, but it is sneaky good when compared to the earlier G3 Skip Away (run ~5 hours earlier on the card). The Florida Derby horses also carried 5 pounds more and dealt with the drying out track (that has been discussed earlier).
-The Santa Anita Derby was the best overall performance so far. Very fast early splits and solid times coming home.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 8th, 2015 at 2:38:25 PM permalink
Daredevil (w/ 20 Derby points) is being turned out until summer one-turn races (requires DRF+ subscription):
http://www.drf.com/news/preview/daredevil-gets-freshening-winstar
----------


Workouts @ Churchill Downs have begun for "contenders". I plan on watching the works more closely this year.

Conquest Typhoon - 4f 48.20B
War Story - 4f 49.20B - Worked without blinkers. I am not a fan of equipment changes made in the big race.
----------


With the last prep entries in, Cyrus Alexander will not be running for roses. I guess he is not ready. A few more Derby future tickets go up in smoke....
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 8th, 2015 at 3:42:35 PM permalink
I think I have my derby strategy. I'm going to pick 3 horses (Pharoah, Dortmund, one longshot) and bet it this way. If two out of three finish 1, 2, or 3 I'll hit the trifecta. The $.50 trifecta will cost me $108 if my math is correct. Thoughts?

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