FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 2nd, 2015 at 4:19:26 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Saturday April 4, 2015 - Santa Anita - Santa Anita Derby Grade 1 (11/8mile - 1 Million)

1 - Dortmund - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse. He has pretty much been the Derby favorite since November.
2 - One Lucky Dane
3 - Cross the Line
4 - Bolo - 4th Derby pool future horse.
5 - Prospect Park - 2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
6 - Bad Read Sanchez

-Dortmund has done literally nothing wrong and is the deserving favorite. Small field and I am picking Bolo here. 2nd dirt race, blowout work, extended distance, Mike Smith, and a solid pace to run at. An interesting angle (over the years of my limited wagering at Santa Anita) is to bet the other (longer odds) Baffert runner when he enters 2 in a race. That would be One Lucky Dane in here, but he has the look of a rabbit for Dortmund to chase.

-I was disappointed to not see Cyrus Alexander entered. Maybe he will go in the Arkansas Derby or maybe he is not ready (or good enough yet).



If you have $10 to blow - $2 to show on 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 could give you a thrill for about 10 seconds.

Edit - of course I mean $5.80 to blow
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
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April 4th, 2015 at 12:59:59 AM permalink
For the Santa Anita Derby, I like Dortmund. Prospect Park's people seem to really think they have a shot with the extra distance, but I don't see Dortmund losing on his home turf like that, with One Lucky Dane going to the lead, Martin Garcia and Rafael Bejarano (where do I know that duo from), will probably have the pace all worked out for Dortmunds benefit. So, Prospect Park is starting out with a big disadvantage IMO. I've got the trifecta the same as the last race. I'm guessing.

1. Dortmund
2. Prospect Park
3. Bolo
4. Cross the Line

For the Wood Memorial, I like Daredevil. Daredevil beat El Kabeir by 17 lengths in their first meeting, so I think if he's any kind of healthy, he won't have a problem with this crowd. I'm guessing.

1. Daredevil
2. El Kabeir
3. Frosted
4. Tiz Shea D

For the Bluegrass, Carpe Diem all alone at the finish line. I don't think anyone can run with him here. I'm guessing.

1. Carpe Diem
2. Danzig Moon
3. Classy Class
4. Unrivaled
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 4th, 2015 at 11:37:53 AM permalink
I'm in two contests today: Twinspires $100 - 10K contest and Derbywars $115 - 5K Contest. I won the $100 entry with a $25 satellite and the $115 with a $29 satellite. Here are my picks (I will change if odds/contest position dictate)

Twinspires - $100
----------------------
AQ 8 - 1 Puca (6/1)
AQ 9 - 6 Final Chapter (12/1)
AQ 10 - 1 Tiz Shea D (8/1)
AQ 11 - 6 Palace (5/1)

KEE 8 - 11 Amelia's Wild Ride (6/1)
KEE 9 - 6 Lovely Maria (7/2)
KEE 10 - 5 Carpe Diem (1/1)
KEE 11 - 7 Groovy A (6/1)

SA 5 - 1 Anxious Times (6/1)
SA 9 - 1 Lutine Belle (12/1)
SA 10 - 4 Ashley Sassy (8/1)
SA 11 - 12 Moulin de Mougin (8/1)

Derby Wars - $115
-----------------------
KEE 7 - 1 I Got it All (5/1)
KEE 8 - 3 Zee Bros (8/1)
KEE 9 - 6 Lovely Maria (7/2)
KEE 10 - 4 Unrivaled (12/1)

AQ 8 - 7 Noble and a Beauty (8/1)
AQ 9 - 4 Easy to Say (15/1)
AQ 10 - 6 Daredevil (9/5)
AQ 11 - 1 Dad's Caps (7/2)

SA 7 - 5 Luminace (5/2)
SA 8 - 4 Bolo (4/1)
SA 9 - 6 Spanish Queen (6/1)
SA 10 - 13 Easter Fever (8/1)

Wish me luck!
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 4th, 2015 at 11:52:30 AM permalink
In case I win anything today - there's a massive mandatory payout over at Woodbine. Here's my $200 ticket:

8 / 4, 5, 7 / 3-12 / 3-12 / 3-12
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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April 5th, 2015 at 2:21:52 AM permalink
Seize the exacta:



I thought that was fun enough, and rewarding, with thanks to Danzig Moon for showing up to get his job done.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 5th, 2015 at 2:30:06 AM permalink
And carpe moolah; seize your odds line. No more six page lists of 400+ wagering interests now; both Wynn & William Hill have each radically pared down their future book lists to thirty-something, though not exactly the same ones. Here are the lines they put up yesterday evening after the Wood, Blue Grass, and Santa Anita Derby.

Wynn Wm Hill Derby nominee
7/2 4/1 Carpe Diem
9/2 4/1 Dortmund
5/1 7/2 American Pharoah
12/1 12/1 Upstart
12/1 12/1 Materiality
14/1 15/1 Mubtaahij
15/1 12/1 International Star
15/1 10/1 Firing Line
15/1 15/1 Frosted
20/1 16/1 Prospect Park
22/1 14/1 El Kabeir
25/1 30/1 One Lucky Dane
25/1 25/1 Bolo
28/1 50/1 Madefromlucky
30/1 20/1 Far Right
30/1 30/1 War Story
30/1 15/1 Itsaknockout
35/1 35/1 Danzig Moon
40/1 75/1 Bold Conquest
45/1 50/1 Keen Ice
50/1 50/1 Frammento
50/1 40/1 Stanford
50/1 40/1 Tencendur
75/1 25/1 Ocho Ocho Ocho
75/1 40/1 Ami's Flatter
75/1 40/1 Maftool
85/1 n/a Rock Shandy
125/1 50/1 The Truth Or Else
125/1 n/a Pain And Misery
150/1 n/a Firespike
150/1 75/1 Mr. Z
150/1 n/a Metaboss
150/1 n/a Divining Rod
150/1 n/a Tiz Shea D
250/1 n/a Bridget's Big Luvy
n/a 40/1 Dubai Sky
n/a 75/1 Conquest Typhoon
n/a 75/1 Classy Class
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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April 5th, 2015 at 10:04:05 AM permalink
Dubai Sky suffered an injury and is out for the year:

http://www.drf.com/news/dubai-sky-injured-will-miss-rest-year
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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April 5th, 2015 at 2:05:46 PM permalink
The Wood Memorial:



The Santa Anita Derby:



The Wood has been given a Beyer speed figure of 103, the Bluegrass got a 95 BSF, and the Santa Anita Derby got a 106. If I take all this at face value, Dortmund certainly looks like the horse that's threatening to assassinate my future book stable, and make all my tickets worthless.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Sabretom2
Sabretom2
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April 5th, 2015 at 5:06:26 PM permalink
Dortmund certainly looks like the horse.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 5th, 2015 at 8:07:02 PM permalink
Nice weekend of racing. The field is really shaping up now. I asked where the speed was earlier in the thread and now speed is all over the place (Dortmund, AP, Stanford, Materiality, Firing Line, Ocho Ocho Ocho). The Derby pace is certainly looking strong now. The Florida horses continue to run well after shipping around the country. I too was pleased Danzig Moon got second and can run in the Derby. He certainly showed the kind of improvement we are looking for this time of year. Dortmund looks a monster, Carpe Diem continues to perform, and Frosted bounced back. The "other" Baffert horse (One Lucky Dane) running second was the biggest surprise for me. Bolo and a number of others are on the edge of making the Derby.

I wanted to revisit some Wynn props I mentioned previously (updates in bold):

Quote: Keeneone

Wynn now has a number of Derby props available.

Kentucky Derby Points Prop (minimum # of Derby points to make and run*)
Over 20.5 points Even
Under 20.5 points -120
*must run in the Derby

Will any horse win the 2015 Triple Crown?
Yes +650 (+700)
No -850 (-1000)

Will a horse win any 2 of the 2015 Triple Crown Races?
Yes +190 (+140)
No -220 (-160)

Official winning time of the 2015 Kentucky Derby
Over 202.20 -110
Under 202.20 -110


The over in the Kentucky Derby Points Prop is now in a winning position with the Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes still to run. There would have to be a number of defections for the under to occur at this point. Remember, 24 can be entered in the Derby but only 20 can run.

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