DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 27th, 2015 at 7:55:05 PM permalink
The list of late nominations from owners who just coughed up an extra $6k to make them Derby eligible:

Bridget's Big Luvy
Comfort
Divining Rod
Dubai Sky
I Spent It
Mr. Jordan
Pepper Roani
Tiz Shea D
Two Weeks Off

Quote: FinsRule

I love American Pharoah. But I don't love him this much. He's currently 3-1!

Sheesh. I can't believe he'll stay there. Even if one has the opinion he's a great colt and you're very sure of it, when you add the risk with any horse in training staying completely healthy for over a month on top of the problem anyone has needing a bit of luck on raceday to get a decent trip in a 20 horse field, and 3/1 five weeks out is just: yikes! Materiality has been all over the place on the CD Future Pool tote board, opening all the way down near 10/1, now drifted up over 20/1...

I won't start to believe any number I see for anything in this pool until at least tomorrow evening when there will be a lot more liquid market in this. There's only $46k in the win pool tonight. They should get something close to ten times that before it closes. Wait 'till the money flows after the major events tomorrow. If someone wins either of them decisively with a visually impressive finish, then whoosh goes the money. Especially if that happens in Florida, where they may have a live gate headcount of near 40,000 people on-track freshly juiced up about it.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 27th, 2015 at 8:20:17 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

If you really want a new face, here's one you could watch for: Comfort. He was purchased privately after an impressive maiden win at Fair Grounds & promptly moved from the barn of Pavel Vashchenko in New Orleans to the impoverished little Pletcher stable, and he's since had four works for The Toddster in Florida. I don't know how realistic he may or might not be in one of the big preps (which are just about the only kind still left of course) off a 1m-70y MSW win, but I understand they have recently nominated him for the Derby & 3 y/o classics. I don't know who, if anyone, might have added him in their future book. Wynn, perhaps? Should be a big price from anyone who does quote a line on him.


Re: Comfort
Thanks for mentioning him. He burned up some cash in his first 2 turf starts and then turned it around on the dirt in his 3rd start. I actually watched his maiden breaker race live. Well, I was really watching Hottap (mentioned earlier in the thread) in the same race. Comfort looked good and is lightly raced. He is as "live" as any other longshot we have mentioned.
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Tam O' Shanter I have heard nothing about.
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I was out and about today when I noticed a Kentucky Derby pool sheet @ Sunset Station. I asked the manager about the Churchill Downs pool and he stated the issues were resolved before the 3rd pool went live. I may have missed DD mention this (and I apologize if true) but I was pleasantly surprised. I will now take a closer look at the last exacta future opportunities over the next few days.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 27th, 2015 at 9:33:29 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

I was out and about today when I noticed a Kentucky Derby pool sheet @ Sunset Station. I asked the manager about the Churchill Downs pool and he stated the issues were resolved before the 3rd pool went live. I may have missed DD mention this (and I apologize if true) but I was pleasantly surprised. I will now take a closer look at the last exacta future opportunities over the next few days.

Thanks for bringing that to our attention. I didn't mention that it was resolved, because I wasn't aware of it. After both the first two pools were unavailable from Las Vegas books I quit checking, and just went with my long-distance arrangements that I made to work around it (don't ask).

So, now we really can get a bet down in a Las Vegas casino? Free at last, free at last...

"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 27th, 2015 at 10:14:04 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Thanks for bringing that to our attention. I didn't mention that it was resolved, because I wasn't aware of it. After both the first two pools were unavailable from Las Vegas books I quit checking, and just went with my long-distance arrangements that I made to work around it (don't ask).

So, now we really can get a bet down in a Las Vegas casino? Free at last, free at last...


Perfect song for this. It will be nice to consider a few other bets without having to go through other channels. Now I need to do some more work this weekend to find the value (which you previously posted about) in the exacta pool. I would love to get a little more $ on Carpe Diem, and the exacta is the way to go right now.
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Golden Barows (KY bred Tapit colt) is getting a bit of "pub" coming into the UAE Derby. I have not watched his Japan races, but some have stated he may go favored in the race. I just hope I can wake up early enough for the race (~6:45am PST).
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 27th, 2015 at 10:55:17 PM permalink
Tom Amoss interview about War Story in the LA Derby:

Come on Hanna, spit out the gum before the interview....
I love the pretty white blaze on WS's face.
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
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March 28th, 2015 at 1:25:31 AM permalink
Louisian Derby, I'm guessing

1. War Story
2. Keen Ice
3. Stanford
4. St. Joe Bay

If Robbie can keep St Joe Bay off of the pace, I think he'll have a good shot at 2nd or 3rd. Stanford and Mr. Z look like they will be battling it out, and if St. Joe Bay goes out front as well, the pace could get moving. That's good news for War Story and Keen Ice.

For the Florida Derby, I'll guess

1. Upstart
2. Ami's Flatter
3. ItsaKnockout
4. Indianaughty

I think Ami's Flatter is interesting here, coming off the pace in a race where leaders Upstart, It'saKnockout haven't yet gone the distance before.

UAE Derby

Haven't a clue. But, I agree, it will be nice to have My Johnny Be Good as a measuring stick there.
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
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March 28th, 2015 at 7:13:48 AM permalink
Ok so Mubtaahij smashed them by about 7 lengths and he must have beaten Johnny be Good by about 30 lengths.

Not sure what that means for the collateral form lines.......

Mike de Kock better learn the words to Old Kentucky Home!!!!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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March 28th, 2015 at 7:19:54 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Ok so Mubtaahij smashed them by about 7 lengths and he must have beaten Johnny be Good by about 30 lengths.

Not sure what that means for the collateral form lines.......

Mike de Kock better learn the words to Old Kentucky Home!!!!



I'm going to grab mubtaahij with some exactas here. Don't know if he beat anything, but it looked good
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 28th, 2015 at 7:23:31 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Ok so Mubtaahij smashed them by about 7 lengths and he must have beaten Johnny be Good by about 30 lengths.

Not sure what that means for the collateral form lines.......

Mike de Kock better learn the words to Old Kentucky Home!!!!


Mubtaahij certainly looked special today. He won as he pleased. Hopefully he comes out of it great and ships over soon.

2015 UAE Derby:
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
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March 28th, 2015 at 7:32:06 AM permalink
So should horses get there early and settle in? I guess there is some quarantine issues. Anybody have any details about how long and where they may be in quarantine?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill

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