DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 23rd, 2015 at 12:16:16 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

My Johnny Be Good is shipping over from the USA after a 3rd in the Sam F. Davis and an 8th in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Well that could be interesting, if he gets a good trip and runs well enough to help get a little bit of a comparative read on any others from this field, if they come over. I have My Johnny Be Good's pedigree at an AWD of 7.1, and just at a quick glance he seems to have displayed roughly middling quality talent so far among the US 3 yo's.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 3750
March 23rd, 2015 at 4:25:05 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

There are always a lot fewer quality fillies racing (and fewer races) than colts, and the chances of getting in to the Oaks with fewer qualifying points (or none) is a lot higher than for the Derby. They have starting slots for 14 in the Oaks, and here's the number of starters for each of the last 20 editions of the Kentucky Oaks:

2014 12
2013 10
2012 14
2011 13
2010 14
2009 7
2008 10
2007 14
2006 14
2005 7
2004 11
2002 9
2001 13
2000 14
1999 7
1998 13
1997 9
1996 6
1995 8
1994 7

Full fields: 5 times; Undersubscribed: 15 times.

As long as she's fit & sound, I'd still consider that ticket very live.



It seems like a super filly drives away a lot of competition. I'm worried that since we don't have it this year, and the oaks purse has been raised to one mil, it will get oversubscribed. But I'm still hopeful.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 23rd, 2015 at 9:33:53 PM permalink
During this little pause before all the truly big stuff coming this weekend and next...

I've been thinking I should probably delve into more of the what, how, and why I go about my "AWD" pedigree numbers that I use and have often mentioned here, because I don't think anyone should buy into something from "SomeguyOntheinternet" and should have an opportunity to weigh the information with enough context to make their own independent judgments about what they want to make of it, if anything at all. But, I'm also not wanting to clutter things here too much with a lot of almost inevitably long-winded esoterica that would interest few, if any.

Well someone writing for Blood-Horse has done it for me, and rather well I think. I don't know anything about Avalyn Hunter, and her piece is specifically about one Derby prospect and an evaluation of his pedigree. But what I think her article manages to accomplish in effective straightforward easily digestible language is to go through the same process in narrative form, using clear words to do the same thing rather than leaving it in the form of a numerical picture of a spreadsheet or database.

Here is that, for anyone who may be interested. It isn't long, she is deliberately light on spitting out quantitative data, but it is exactly what I'm up to, and in going about the same thing in the same way in every respect it should provide an easy illustrative example to help folks decide what attention, if any, they choose to pay to my little "n.nf" pedigree numbers for this thing. It isn't hard, isn't even rocket measurement let alone science, anyone can learn to do it if they wish to take the time. But she has done it there in more readable fashion to be intuitively understandable for a general audience than what I'd have produced on the fly here:

Pedigree Analysis: Upstart
Quote: Avalyn Hunter @Blood-Horse (3/20/15)

Of the winners of this spring’s early graded stakes for 3-year-old males, Ralph Evans’ Upstart is clearly at or near the head of the class...

...<SNIP>...

Not so fast. Although Upstart has a better pedigree for getting a distance than many of his contemporaries, there is reason to think he might be better suited to intermediate distances. The reasons start with Flatter...

...<SNIP>...

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90646/pedigree-analysis-upstart#ixzz3VH2I9nfN

"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
March 23rd, 2015 at 10:09:45 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Well that could be interesting, if he gets a good trip and runs well enough to help get a little bit of a comparative read on any others from this field, if they come over. I have My Johnny Be Good's pedigree at an AWD of 7.1, and just at a quick glance he seems to have displayed roughly middling quality talent so far among the US 3 yo's.


I agree. My Johnny Be Good had been competitive in his races up until his last. If you can look past the Tampa Bay Derby, he is a decent sort. It is interesting his connections will ship him out on what I assume is an expensive/taxing trip. Granted it is a 2 million dollar race, and if he somehow manages a 3rd place finish (or better) he may have the points (20 for 3rd place) to Run for the Roses. It seems a tall order to succeed in the UAE Derby, but we won't know until they run the race.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 24th, 2015 at 10:26:20 AM permalink
The wagering interests are out for the final Churchill Downs pari-mutual Derby future wager Pool #4, opening this Friday and closing Sunday, with Battaglia's "morning line" opinion of odds. After the published morning line the second number I've listed for each betting interest is the current (as of about 10:20am Pacific) odds line of William Hill for comparison, in parentheses. I think Wm. Hill tends to be a little slow on the draw to move their numbers in response to the market, but they are what I have available in front of me at the moment among the the fixed odds future books:

Pool #4 list in .pdf

1 American Pharoah 9-2 (5-1) 7.0f
2 Ami’s Flatter* 50-1 (60-1) 7.1f
3 Bold Conquest* 50-1 (75-1) 7.3f
4 Bolo 20-1 (22-1) 7.6f
5 Carpe Diem 6-1 (7-1) 7.9f
6 Daredevil 30-1 (40-1) 7.1f
7 Dortmund 5-1 (7-1) 7.0f
8 Dubai Sky* 30-1 (40-1) 7.2f
9 El Kabeir 20-1 (16-1) 7.2f
10 Far From Over 15-1 (10-1) 8.0f
11 Far Right 30-1 (25-1) 6.5f
12 Firing Line 12-1 (10-1) 6.9f
13 Frosted* 30-1 (30-1) 7.5f
14 International Star 20-1 (18-1) 7.4f
15 Itsaknockout 30-1 (15-1) 7.5f
16 Keen Ice 50-1 (40/1) 7.4f
17 Madefromlucky* 30-1 (50-1) 7.6f
18 Materiality* 20-1 (40-1) 7.4f
19 Mr. Z 50-1 (30-1) 7.0f
20 Mubtaahij* 30-1 (75-1) 8.6f
21 Prospect Park 15-1 (20-1) 7.2f
22 Upstart 15-1 (12-1) 6.9f
23 War Story (g) 50-1 (40-1) 7.0f
24 Mutuel Field – All Other 3YOs 8-1 (n/a)

*New wagering interest in KDFW Pool 4
(g) - gelding

While I'm looking through it, some of the other W.H. lines that have had some interest from me and/or others here are: Cyrus Alexander 40/1, Gold Shield 100/1, Indianaughty 100/1, Maftool 100/1, Unrivaled 100/1. And since they just now got around to taking down their 20/1 number for Texas Red, I'm declaring Jess's Dream the winner of the ridiculous sucker bet trophy; you can still have him at the amazing price of 75/1.

EDIT: Added pedigree 'average winning distance' numbers.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
March 24th, 2015 at 12:44:00 PM permalink
Thanks for posting the list. After a quick look, I was surprised to see Frosted return to the list. To be clear, I thinks he belongs, but why remove him and then add him back? What do they know that we do not?
I am sure you will add the AWD for the new shooters when you have time (specifically the ones with red #'s).
International Star is already in the gate, is well qualified for the distance (DD AWD 7.4), and is running this weekend in the LA Derby (a race he does not need to win). Yet, Far From Over (10 points), Bolo (10 points), Materiality (0 points, but will likely run in the Florida Derby this weekend) have similar or lower M/L odds. They do not even have enough points to make the Derbyyet.
Does the field have any value here @ 8-1 (or higher) in this last chance future pool? There will be 4 more "big" preps after his pool closes and a non-listed horse could still rise up with enough points to run. Maybe the Field/(with a horse or 2 you already have money on) exacta box is a way to hedge in this pool.
Example: You already have $100 on AP and Dortmund to win. So bet Field/AP,Dortmund exacta Box (whatever $ amount you want).
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 24th, 2015 at 1:52:24 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

I was surprised to see Frosted return to the list.

So was I. I get the feeling they may have been scratching for the last addition or two to replace those that have been left by the side of the road. But, I understand he did just put in a fast workout (I don't know how hard he was pushed to do it) and McLaughlin is planning to run him in the Wood. Maybe he should pray for snow in Queens on the first Saturday in April.

I've edited the list above to include my AWD figures.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 24th, 2015 at 4:09:35 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Field/AP,Dortmund exacta Box (whatever $ amount you want).

So a (field / cobalt + cobalt) wager.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/is-cobalt-a-killer-in-horses/

This is truly what concerns me most about my future wagers for this. Baffert's "veterinarian" is not in those pedigree numbers.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
March 25th, 2015 at 9:01:10 AM permalink
Going to be an exciting race in Dubai on Saturday with the two Godolphin colts taking on Mubtaahij to see who might have the chance to run in the Kentucky Derby on May 2nd (also known as "boxing day").
Mubtaahij has drawn 1 which is the winning est draw at the carnival to date on the new dirt surface. Trainer de Kock however is not so keen on this draw as he doesn't want too many to cross him if he comes out a little slowly. Fair comment I guess.

I have already backed Mubtaahij for the Derby so i hope he can win or run 2nd to at least have a shot at the roses.....
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
March 25th, 2015 at 8:54:25 PM permalink
Saturday March 28, 2015 - Fairgrounds - Louisiana Derby Grade 2 (11/8mile - 750k)

1 - Stanford
2 - Mr. Z - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby Future horse.
3 - Defondo
4 - Fusaichi Flame
5 - A Day in Paradise
6 - War Story - 3rd,4th Derby Future horse.
7 - Keen Ice - 3rd,4th Derby Future horse.
8 - St. Joe Bay
9 - International Star - 2nd,3rd,4th Derby Future horse.

-Has the look of a good competitive race. 4 Derby future listed horses. Mr Z goes blinkers off, but may go to the front with (maybe) Stanford an St. Joe Bay. International Star (going for a Fairgrounds 3yo stakes sweep) and Keen Ice will be rolling late. War Story will probably be just off the pace and should be a factor again. He looked like a winner in the last 2, but International Star beat him each time.

  • Jump to: